It’s a relatively rare feat to witness a player finish in the top-two overall on the Razzball player rater as well as in NL MVP voting two consecutive seasons, then follow up such elite fantasy production with a 99th percentile exit velocity, 98th percentile hard hit rate and 88th percentile xwOBA in the third year to follow. That’s two years of high-end, top-two fantasy production followed by sexy batted ball metrics in the third year. What’s even rarer is to see a player with that exact profile currently possessing an ADP of 12th overall in drafts entering the 2021 season. Impossible, you say? Well, so is the story of Christian Yelich. And although we all know those batted ball metrics don’t tell the full story of Yelich’s 2020, we can at least all agree that his current ADP is straight-up bonkers, right? Especially when considering that Yelich’s two consecutive seasons in the top two on the Razzball player rater (2018, 2019) represented full seasons, while his disastrous 2020 campaign came in an abbreviated 60-game slate. What is this madness — and how can you capitalize on it as a fantasy owner this upcoming season?
Please, blog, may I have some more?I don’t have enough spam, give me the Razzball email newsletter!
Weekly Razzball news delivered straight to your inbox.
I used to trade stocks for a living. I started out as a market maker for NASDAQ stocks right before the internet bubble then traded my own account for over 10 years. After the kids were born, I transitioned from day trading to more longer-term, position trading. With the recent euphoric market, the day trading hat is back on. With that said, there are so many things I’ve learned from trading, mostly about human psychology but that’s a discussion for another day. The one tenet that became very important for me was price discovery. Where were buyers and sellers willing to transact and at what price would there be an equilibrium. You can glean a ton of information from watching the action and identify spots of support and resistance, which I used to limit risk. If buyers were no longer willing to support a stock at a certain price, then something has changed and it’s best to get flat and reassess. Vice versa on the sell side. The closer I could buy or sell to these spots, the more information I would have and the easier I’d be able to identify if I was wrong, saving me money in the long run because all trades are not winners. For example, say a stock was trading in the $10 to $12 range. After watching the action, buyers would always step in at $10 and sell at $12. So, buy at $10 and sell at $12, right? I wouldn’t want to buy at $12 because I know sellers are stepping in there, so what’s the point? If the price broke through $10, then I’d know it’s probably going lower and if it went through $12 then it’s probably going higher. In that scenario, I don’t mind paying over $12 once I got confirmation that the sellers there were cleaned out. The bigger the sample size the better the information. This is a simplistic example but you get the point.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Framber Valdez pitched after his fractured finger happened, so will be assuming it’s not too terrible. Haha, I’m lyin’ to myself! Now now NOW! Calm down, Grey, it’s gonna all work out. *turns abruptly to mirror* Is it? So, this isn’t great news, but it’s early enough, and it was his ring finger on his pitching hand, but our writer, Coolwhip, looked at his grips for me (because I was too panicked), and it seems Framber only uses that finger 10% of the time with his change, which isn’t a good pitch for him. He’s primarily a sinker/curve guy. I reranked him, placing him in an area where I’d still draft him, but obviously this isn’t the ideal stuff you want to see. Unless you’re a demented ess oh bee. You a demented ess oh bee? Hmm…? Are you? Tell me! Sorry, I’m amped up. Speaking of which, kinda, he will need to ramp up to game-shape after returning in May, so I’m conservatively projecting him to return end of May, early-June. Okay, clerical work now *adjusts priest’s collar* Here’s my adjusted top 80 starters for 2021 fantasy baseball with new projections; top 100 for 2021 fantasy baseball with Framber removed; top 500 for 2021 fantasy baseball with Framber moved down about 125 spots, and my pitchers’ pairings tool adjusted. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2021 fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?I play in some deep dynasty leagues. The kind where every at bat has value. Every pulse has value. In leagues like these, guys like Gio Urshella, Mike Yazstremski and Tommy Edman get picked up before their first big chance. I love these large player pools and have discovered something of talent for climbing aboard the airbus just before real helium hits for the Trent Grishams, Randy Arozarenas, and Jake Cronenworths of the world.
I’m not suggesting the players in this series are locks to produce like those names in the intro. I am however saying these are the freemium-level dynasty and draft champions pieces I’m acquiring now in as many leagues as possible because I love their intersection of proximity, opportunity and talent.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Steals might ain’t got no face, but team stolen base attempts definitely do got yes face. (Totally crushed this lede!)
Today we’re going to get into something that normally makes fantasy baseball FAR superior to fantasy football in my opinion: coaching decisions. You could have the best wide receiver in the game, but whoopsie daisy — Mike McCarthy decides he wants to run the ball a lot today. Now you’re out $500. At least with fantasy baseball, the manager will always put his best lineup on the field and it is completely up to the hitter to do his job. The coach isn’t telling him “Hey you, I don’t even want you to swing up there.”
Today’s article deals with managerial decisions on the basepath — specifically the stealing of second base. I’m going to let you in on some secrets on which managers have itchy trigger fingers when they have a runner on first with an empty base 90 feet away and those who are a bit gun shy when it comes to sending their runners. (Wow with all the violent imagery. What is this, CPAC?)
First, some alarming data — here are the average manager second base stolen base attempt percentages from the past 10 years. (Analytic nerds will soon refer to this stat as MASBSBAP.)
Please, blog, may I have some more?C’mon, what are you making me do here? A Kyle Tucker overrated post? *sucks teeth* Damn, I’m disappointed with myself. I was the one telling you to draft him last year. Now, I have to tell you not to draft him. Then tell you to draft him again next year? Then don’t draft him in 2022? Then draft him in 2023? What, am the Bret Saberhagen of fantasy ‘perts? You’re making me embarrass myself. Why do you do this? Does it inflate your ego at the expense of mine? Fine, but remember that when you’re hanging out with your new girlfriend you picked up based on your newfound confidence that you discovered from roundly trouncing someone you don’t know personally on the internet about Kyle Tucker. I’m helping you get laid! You’re welcome. My job is done here. Oh, yeah, Kyle Tucker. His ADP of 29 overall is the one of the more puzzling things in the 2021 fantasy draft season. Last year, he went 9/8/.268 and…what is going on here? I mean, I like him too, but the collective you boosted him 220 draft spots from his ADP last year based on that? By the way, the Collective You has some great adult contemporary songs like, “Paying the Bills with an SBA,” and “It’s Trash Day Again?” Just absolute adulting like no one else! So, what can we expect from Kyle Tucker for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Please, blog, may I have some more?Who doesn’t love a cliffhanger ending? I still recall every sitcom I’ve watched in my life that kept me hanging for a full week before the ongoing crisis is resolved. Can Uncle Phil and Will save their relationship? How long will Cherry be stuck in the old fridge? These are high water moments in entertainment. We at the Razzball podcast are no different as we present the first part of our run through the top 100 outfielders. Quick math, half of 100 is 50! Suck it common core! We take you through all the guys to draft, who to avoid, and this year’s high value outfielder going after pick 100. It’s another week of the Razzball podcast. Mount up!
Please, blog, may I have some more?Okay now that I got that load of laundry out of the way (we discussed per game values here), we can go back… to the future! Looking ahead to this season and what lies before us. How can it be ahead and before? Don’t ask me, English is a tortured and butchered language that is an amalgamation of West German, Norman, Saxon, and broken Latin. Nothing makes sense. But I’m sure you didn’t come here to hear me rant about linguistics, you are here for outfielders, and of those we have plenty.
The outfield is a position that is easy to punt in the earlier rounds as there are so many, even 4 of the top 5 bats in the game are outfielders, if you take one of them it is isn’t hard to move on and address other areas of need before going back in. However, in some leagues you will need to roster five at a time so you mustn’t wait too long; but, there are plenty of solid options after pick 100. Without further ado, let’s dive in.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last week we covered why you should join an RCL, so this week let’s start covering what to do once you’re in there. To be honest, this has all been covered somewhere on the site over the years, most often by Rudy. If you haven’t been playing in RCLs though, I could see how some of this has been glossed over, so I’ll try to consolidate some info for the newbies. Grizzled RCL vets can feel free to skip this and just go sign up for leagues at the end of the post. We’ll just be covering the basics for anyone still timid about jumping in the RCL waters.
QUICK NOTE: With Drafts going off daily now, we’re trying our best to get every league filled, but if you are in a league where someone bails late or it looks like it won’t fill, let us know. Jump in the comments or let us know on Twitter: @Razzball and/or @MattTruss and we’ll try to work some magic.
Please, blog, may I have some more?As I’m writing this, I’m realizing that, gloriously, it’s not all that early any more (hence my last-minute title change). Players have not only reported to camp, spring training games are being played and Opening Day will suddenly be here within a month. Those of us who are already drafting are no longer in the bubble of being able to avoid “best shape of his life” comments from players and remarks from managers about bullpen or starting position battles where a few words may lead to a huge ADP rise or fall for certain players. After looking at second base last week, we’ll begin March by shifting over one spot on the diamond and concentrating on shortstops outside the top 150 players being drafted according to current NFBC ADP. Since the position is stacked once again this season, I suspect most of us, even in very deep leagues, will have splurged on an expensive or early round stud and will have short covered by the time we get this late in a draft or auction. But it’s always nice to know what our fallback/back-up/bench depth/lottery ticket options might be, which leads us to the following list of names.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last year’s schmohawk posts were Alex Bregman, Joey Gallo, Charlie Blackmon, DJ LeMahieu and Kris Bryant. Welp, four out five ain’t bad. I crushed four of those so hard it was like I Mola Ram’d my hand into their chest so decisively, some of them were unable to come back from it. Somewhere, Kris Bryant is still walking with his head lowered, kicking rocks at some of the weak-sauce grounders he’s hitting to the 2nd baseman. Imagine you could ruin careers with your typed words — THAT IS MY POWER! I am a responsible enough adult that I can handle doling out this sort of punishment, but I promise you, I go to sleep every night, praying each of my schmohawks will be able to start up a new career after I decimate them with my (s)words.
“Lord, I know you are busy, but please, if you have a moment, let Joey Gallo start a career as a pretzel salesman at a well-attended circus. Or whatever he wants to do. Thank you, and keep in touch, big homey!” That’s me knelt by my Cal-King, 45,000-count linen sheet-covered bed. Just an adult, doing adult shizz. Now, allow me to unsheathe my adjectives, unholster my nouns, something-something-out some verbs! Today’s dressing down comes at the expense of Dominic Smith. En garde! is what I scream as I eat a Snickers bar, while perusing Statcast. You’re done for, pal! So, what can we expect from Dominic Smith for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Please, blog, may I have some more?A lot of pitcher fantasy analysis centers around pitcher quality: Velocity, stuff, BABIP, Statcast, recent performance…balancing out all of the available metrics to determine cost (draft slot, $ value) is the name of the game. Today we’re going to look at a metric I rarely see discussed in the pre-season: strength of schedule (SoS).
In-season, starting pitcher matchups are gold, whether you’re playing the streaming game or DFS. But pre-season, I rarely see analysis go any deeper than AL-vs.-NL comparisons. At the individual-SP level, this makes sense: projecting out specific full-season matchups for an SP is impossible.
At the team level, however, we can get get a pretty good handle on who may have advantageous matchups and who has a tough road. More specifically, we’re interested in the extremes: How frequently will each team face really tough matchups, or really easy ones? The middle 60% will be mostly based on pitcher quality; at the margins, we have actionable start/sit decisions.
Please, blog, may I have some more?