So, here’s all that’s happened since I began the Fantasy Aftermath: Top June Pitchers write up and the July write up. I worked, I tweeted, I played Daily Fantasy Football and made the Fantasy Football playoffs in seven of my eight seasonal leagues, I wrote weeks worth of Daily Fantasy Football for @Jaywrong (he’s such a slave driver), I grew a beard, and I repped Razzball for a Fantasy Baseball mock draft. Oh and I completed Top April and Top May pitchers prior to that. This is the off-season!?! But more to the point, I don’t remember what the hell we were talking about. Fantasy pitchers from the 2014 year? That’s so 2014! PS, that’s only funny if you’re reading it in 2015. Knowing Grey he’s gonna be a jerk and post this on New Year’s Eve just to kill the humor. So let’s not waste our time being funny, let’s get to the facts. Here’s the top July pitchers from the 2014 Fantasy Baseball season…
Overview
So what the heck am I looking at, you might ask yourself. Well, unfortunately, the names I gave those secondary columns just won’t cut through so I gotta give you some breakdown. The first column labelled simply ‘$’ is Rudy’s formula for evaluating streamers. I can’t share the secret formula, though I have been told if used in the kitchen it makes some great baked beans. The column to its immediate right is what I simply called ‘Minus Wins.’ It’s Rudy’s numbers minus the impact of wins on their value. Clearly it knocks a few bucks off the top for everyone, but it does go to show whether a guy pitched well or if it was the wins that pushed them through the gate. The third and final column is ‘Win Value Difference.’ This is simply to show the separation between their value when counting wins vs their inherent value without them. Some are drastic, some are not and some may be misleading. Also notice the spreadsheet itself has two different tabs to peruse: ‘July With Wins’ and ‘July W/out Wins.’ I don’t think this needs further explanation. If it does, please refer to Appendix I-IV. Hint: there is no appendix. PS, if this looks familiar from the previous posts in this series…it is! It’s a breakdown of what you’re looking at, I don’t see a reason to recreate the wheel. Unless the original wheel were inefficient, of course. Maybe it needs spikes? YES! Back to the drawing board we go! JK, moving along…
First Impressions:
Preseason Top 20 Pitchers For 2014 Fantasy Baseball in top 25 for July with wins: Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Alex Cobb, Zack Greinke – 7 total
Preseason Top 20 Pitchers For 2014 Fantasy Baseball in top 25 for July without wins: Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Felix Hernandez, Chris Sale, Max Scherzer, Alex Cobb, Zack Greinke – 7 total
Largest Positive Win Value Difference: Sonny Gray (15.1)
Largest Negative Win Value Difference: Jake Arrieta (-7.5)
Pitchers Outside the Top 25 without the win category: Lance Lynn, Jake Odorizzi, Zack Wheeler, Scott Kazmir
Pitchers Inside the Top 25 without the win category: Matt Garza, Jake Arrieta, Jeff Samardzija
Not overly obvious free agent pitching pickups from the lists: Jacob deGrom, Wade Miley, R.A. Dickey, Ervin Santana – 4 total
Second Impressions
Jacob deGrom – Oh hai ROY. My name isn’t Roy, it’s Jacob. Well, no one has ever accused an athlete of being too bright…anywho, deGrom got to face Atlanta twice and Miami once in his his total of five July starts. He was able to tally 27 Ks in 19 innings over that stretch. Given both of those teams finished in the bottom five for K% by team, this should surprise no one. This isn’t me ragging on Jacob, just some things to be thinking about for your 2015 season. Yes, this post has 2015 implications. Don’t act so shocked.
What does ‘not overly obvious free agent pitching’ mean in July? – Looking back over the splits, I almost talked myself into putting Tyson Ross and Zack Wheeler on the list but decided against it. I feel like Ross was probably forgotten in June after posting near a 4 ERA and I’d put money on all the Wheeler drafters having dropped him by the end of May with basically 3 straight months of a +4.00 ERA to start the year. But since I can’t prove it, I can’t do it. I cheated a bit with Dickey – I’m sure his history pushed him up draft boards – but in reality, July ‘surprise’ pitching probably started in June. It’s also why I didn’t put Marcus Stroman in since everyone was hot on him and he was called up in June. Basically, I’m saying it could’ve been 6 or 7 but I put 4 because I have standards. Or something…
Jeff Samardzija – Was traded to Oakland by July but still finished second behind his former teammate in negative win value difference at -4.5. It’s hard to shake the stink of losing, apparently.
Wade Miley – Wade actually posted some sexy K/9 smut for most of the year. Problem is if you made a pin-up calendar of his exploits, only one month came with a skimpy ERA. The rest? Well…
28% – The amount of top 20 pitchers in the top 25 for the month of July. This ties June for most successful month. Side bar: if Siamese Twins win at anything, isn’t it always a tie? Go forth and ponder, friends.
Aftermath:
We’re getting to that juncture in the season where the pickups get sparse simply because we’re retreading. R.A. Dickey? He was probably drafted but anyone who held him through March thru June…well, you deserve what you got. Sorry, not sorry. The stretch run should be a bit more promising for pick up arms but that’s simply based on memory and considering how much ‘fun’ I had in college, that’s faulty at best. I now get why so many authors use the unreliable narrator route; we just can’t remember what we’re talking about! But for cereal, July feels like the most ‘known’ set of pitching names we’ve had in this series. Of course, some surprise omissions did happen. Stephen Strasburg? No dice. Yu Darvish? If memory serves, the lead up to a DL stint. Madison Bumgarner? MIA and I don’t mean he was traded to the Marlins. The end of the season is truly a question of how many of the in-season pickups and late sleeper picks were held through rough patches. Of course, anyone who owns Clayton Kershaw is winning their league, of course. I mean, I’m sure their offense is fine. Sighs…seriously that sarcastic font still doesn’t work. In the end, we’re still looking through the historical telescope on #PitchingIsSoDeep so I’m not gonna proclaim anything until we’re done. Until next week or month or year, peeps.
You can follow Sky on twitter @Sky_Razzball and in your most sweetest of dreams
