Small sample size (that’s what she said!)… Oh wait, I’m not Grey on the Podcast!
Let’s start over… Aherm…
Small sample size… They happen all the time. Shane Greene is awesome! F You Shane Greene! Shane Greene is awesome again! But usually less bipolar than that.
The funny thing with small samples is the timing. Sorta like how “impressions are everything” and that hooblah. Start a year awesome, everyone wants to marry you! Start the year terrible, and you get cut in the shower and sent to AAA (poor Scooter…).
I will admit the only Mike Bolsinger I had watched before this Pitcher Profile was a start last year for the Dbacks and he didn’t look good. Impressions are everything! …I more or less wrote him off even with a decent start to 2015 with the Dodgers. Then he goes all Corey Kluber and 1-hits the Padres over 8 innings. So I decided to break down Bolsinger’s fantastic start last Saturday, and see if there’s really something here:
First Inning: Bolsinger’s first pitch is an 86 MPH fastball well high to Yangervis Solarte, 1-0. Yup, he’s a very slow thrower. 85 MPH fastball is in there, 83 MPH is low – probably still a “fastball” but Fangraphs only lists him having fastball/curveball, then another 86 MPH fastball is hit up the gap for a leadoff single. SPOILER ALERT! That’s the only hit… And it wasn’t a rocket; hit just hard enough to get out of Howie Kendrick‘s reach. Cory Spangenberg is first-pitch hacking and fouls it off, 78 MPH curveball is high, curve drops into the zone, then curve again gets a tailor-made double play to second for two easy outs. First pitch curveball is low to Matt Kemp, curve again stays high but drops in just enough for strike one, 89 MPH fastball is low, 2-1. 89 might be his max today! Then 87 with good movement is hit routinely to short for the final out:
Almost looks like a cutter with the slicing action of that pitch, and it’s easy to see how Bolsinger has induced so many ground balls this year.
Second Inning: Justin Upton takes a high hanging curveball for ball one with Bolsinger picking up an early run of support, then fastball gets Upton underneath it for a routine fly to center, one down. Curveball to Will Venable is low and in, then spins one in to the top of the zone, 1-1. Then Bolsinger “pounds” one in on his hands (86 MPH) for a routine grounder to second. Easy outs so far. Sinking fastball on the outside corner is just off the plate, curveball stays high, 2-0 for Jedd Gyorko. Bolsinger doesn’t give in, and drops a 2-0 curveball into the zone to battle back. It’s not overwhelming at 78 MPH, but if you have the faith to use any pitch for any time, it’s a big weapon. Bolsinger comes right back into the zone with a fastball, 2-2, then a tight curveball dipping just below the knees is swung over and missed for Bolsinger’s first K and a quick inning.
Third Inning: First pitch to Will Middlebrooks is a fastball high, heater is low, then a high fastball is tomahawked to shortstop for a one-hopper, fairly hard hit out. Bolsinger hangs a curveball way high to Austin Hedges, then a good curve plops into the outside low corner, 1-1. Then Bolsinger takes it much lower and into the dirt and gets the young Hedges to swing, 1-2:
This arsenal – minus a few MPH on the fastball – is really starting to remind me of Jesse Hahn… Anyway, Bolsinger elevates a fastball high, a hanging curveball in the zone is fouled back out of play, then yet another curveball that didn’t quite bend into the dirt is slapped to short for an easy groundout. Up is opposing pitcher Ian Kennedy who takes strike one, 86 MPH is low, perfect curveball bends into the zone, 86 MPH fastball is just off the outside black, then that tight curveball in the same spot gets the pitcher to whiff, another easy inning ending on a K.
Fourth Inning: Back to the top and Solarte takes a high curveball, then a fastball is roped to first, but Adrian Gonzalez snags it and makes the easy toss to Bolsinger covering for the first out. Fairly loud out. Spangenberg takes a curveball that almost looked like it was in the zone but called inside, fastball on the hands pulled foul, fastball high and tailing away is cut on late and fouled off, then an 82 MPH maybe change-up or hanging cutter is flied out lazily to left for an easy out. Bolsinger starts Kemp with a fastball just off the plate fouled off, high fastball gets a check swing that was really close 1-1, fastball is low and away – then whoa – an 80 MPH curveball has a mad wrinkle to it and bends into the zone, 2-2:
Almost looks like a whiffleball pitch! Then curve again that forces Kemp to swing as it was strike three, gets a defensive swing and another K for Bolsinger.
Fifth Inning: Upton takes a mighty cut at a first pitch curveball and is way in front, 0-1 and another curve is in the zone, 0-2. Curve is outside, fastball high, then a curveball that was sweeping low and outside gets Upton to poke it second, and it stays up long enough to be caught on the fly. That wasn’t hit hard, but easily could’ve flared somewhere. Bolsinger gets strike one on Venable, drops a perfect hammer in there to get up 0-2 and he’s just got that curveball perfect today. And he goes right back to it dropping low and inside – Venable tries to hold but it’s called a swing, yet another K. High curve gets Gyorko swinging and missing, another 0-1 count, then drops another high curve into the zone to get up 0-2. Curveball one more time, Gyorko was ready for it and hits it well, but it’s right to Andre Ethier for the third out. Not a lucky out, but probably a 0.4 in my Gamescore+ tabulation.
Sixth Inning: Fastball that looked a tad high gets the call for strike one on Middlebrooks, then a curveball gets him just in front for an easy lazy flyball to center, another quick out. Hedges takes a curve low and outside, curve is hung high and inside, 2-0. Maybe Bolsinger’s worst consecutive pitches. He’s forced to throw a fastball high in the zone, but Hedges just misses and fouls it back, 2-1. High fastball again at 88 MPH somehow blows Hedges away swinging, 2-2. Everyone is on their toes for that curveball, but with back-to-back fastballs for strikes, Bolsinger is able to bury a curveball high in the zone and get Hedges looking. Great pitching and sequencing there. Curve is high to Kennedy, fastball strike, fastball again on the outside edge laced foul, then an easy nubber is right to the mound and Bolsinger is able to make the easy play and get Kennedy out with plenty of time. Side note – right before that final pitch, the Dodgers broadcast cut to some kids waving – and right after Vin Scully said, “There’s no way you can look at a group of kids like that without smiling.” Creepy.
Seventh Inning: Bolsinger picks up another run of support protecting a 2-0 lead, and a curveball slips out of his hand and goes to the backstop. Regrouping, fastball is in there with Solarte initially showing bunt, another fastball that looked a lot like a cutter picks up the outside corner, 1-2:
Mixing speeds and movement on everything – proof you don’t need the electric stuff. And a hanging curve is flared to left for an easy flyout, one down. 18 in a row… Spangenberg takes I think a change-up high, curve moving 12-6 and almost getting into the dirt gets a whiff, high fastball fouled back, then a curveball almost picks up the outside corner but called outside, 2-2. Bolsinger did the step off and everything – cocky mother effer! Then another curve gets a whiff, and it’s 6 Ks for Big Mike. Fastball just outside to Kemp, fastball again out there paints the outside corner, then another curveball that hung in the zone is roped into the gap, but the Dodgers in a huge overshift have Jimmy Rollins perfectly placed in the gap to make the play. That was right through third base and short in a normal allignment, credit the scouting there (I don’t think Kemp is shifted on that drastically most of the time).
Eighth Inning: Bolsinger on a crazy run retiring 20 straight gets strike one taken to Upton, fastball again fouled off, climbs the ladder at 88 but is well high, then the 1-2 is a hanging curveball that barely nips the high black for his 7th K. Upton didn’t like the call, but it indeed seemed to junky-junk fall into the zone. Venable takes a curve outside for a ball, then drag bunts the 1-0 and it’s nearly a perfect one, but Bolsinger launches to it on a dive, and makes the tough throw from his knees to get Venable out by half a step. Crazy play. And now the crazy continues with Upton barking from the dugout at the ump and Bud Black comes out to argue. Wow, Upton was actually thrown out. Bolsinger making everyone craaaaaazy! Gyorko takes a curve outside, fouls off a fastball, curve drops into the top of the zone 1-2, high curve again stays too far up, 2-2. Then Bolsinger’s final pitch is a third straight high curveball, Gyorko swings through it, and Bolsinger gets his 8th K. 23 batters in a row retired, and with the double play, he faced the minimum 24 batters over 8 innings. Nuts.
Final Line: W 8.0 IP 92 Pitches (60 Strikes) 0 ER 1 Hit 0 Walks 8 K Gamescore: 88 Gamescore+: 86.2
Final Analysis: One of the crazier pitched games I’ve ever seen… Sure I’m young, but I watched that Armando Galarraga perfect game snub before instant replay, the Phil Humber perfect game, but this probably tops both of those as Bolsinger more-or-less throws two pitches at sub-90 MPH. Sure with different speeds and varieties, but I bet every single Padre will be frothing at the mouth to face him again. Interesting that even with nice strikeouts, his Gamescore+ came out lower than his Gamescore – he didn’t have very many hard hit outs, but I guess the true Gamescore which adds points the deeper you pitch helped him out.
The “fastball” is a misnomer – fastest velo on the day was 89 MPH. Usually in the 86-87 range, I think there’s a cutter mixed in there and the speeds and movement varied all night. Most had good sink when he needed it, lending to his small-sample 58.3% GB rate this year. Then his money maker – the curveball. He threw them high with still enough break to catch the top of the zone, and low enough to get swings-and-misses. He can mix in more a 12-6 break like that 2nd GIF and a tighter almost slider-ish break like the 3rd GIF. The comp to Hahn I think is apt – both throw tons of curveballs and feature several varieties of the bender (although Hahn seems to be throwing a little less in Oakland).
So what do we make of a guy who pitched 8 perfect innings after a leadoff single? Well, before yesterday that Padres offense was really struggling and I’m sure almost all of you reading this will bet this is a career game. That said, I think his control and maybe 6-7ish K potential was good enough to crack the top 100, unlike his teammate Carlos Frias who I was never really buying. And it’s really interesting to see Bolsinger’s mid-80s stuff mow through the Padres, then the next day the fireballer (average fastball is 95.9 MPH) Frias got absolutely murdered. Bolsinger is obviously going to regress (as I mention on today’s Podcast – it’s hard to have a LOB% – 96.9% – higher than your avg fastball velocity – 86.3 MPH), BABIP is .210 and FIP and xFIP are of course much higher than the sub-1.00 ERA, but it’s interesting his xFIP through 52.1 innings last year (3.31) isn’t too far off his xFIP this year in 25.1 innings (3.16) – sure small sample applies. There’s enough here to strongly consider him when streaming and to certainly own in deeper leagues, but he’s like Mike Fiers without the strong K upside and more risk – if his command is just a little off, he’s going to get pummeled.
JB’s Updated Top 100 SP
(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)
Dropped Out: Wily Peralta, MIL (Had to leave his last start early with “left side tightness” and it was still tight the day after when he tried to toss, which I don’t see widely reported. Starting to smell like a DL stint, and I’m scared an oblique or lat or something is wrong), CC Sabathia, NYY (ugh, kinda looked like he might be turing it around), Drew Pomeranz, OAK (DL – shoulder, even though it doesn’t sound too serious he wasn’t that high anyway), Anthony DeSclafani, CIN (these walks!), Henderson Alvarez, MIA (Back on the DL and pitching through a 90% UCL tear?! Yikes.)
- By far the biggest riser this week is Mike Foltynewicz. I was concerned he’d have too many walks and was at least a year or two out, but after watching him dominate my Brewers with ace-like stuff, now’s the time to buy. 14:2 K:BB since last week in two starts as well. Love that.
- Not a big jump, but Cole Hamels has fixed the control issues and has 1 ER or less in 6 of the last 8. Dialed in. Surprised he can focus since he has to move this Summer…
- There it is! Jeff Samardzija with back-to-back outings with the split-finger back over double digits usage after 4 straight in single digits. He needs that pitch to be effective, and whaddya know?! Two straight good starts, particularly his last one.
- Past 3 games have shown the velocity climbing back up for Jordan Zimmermann, and he’s had back-to-back nice starts with 6 Ks in each. I couldn’t move him up too much, but it’s encouraging.
- If there’s one pitcher I would say sell high on, it’s Julio Teheran. He pitched well against my Brewers, but I kept scratching my head at his velo. I don’t know if he threw a single pitch over 90 MPH and his fastball averaged 88.0. It was previously going up, but that’s just really weird to suddenly be 3 MPH slower than where he’s been the few starts before (91-92 range). I’m scared.
- The Diamondbacks seem to be playing with semantics not calling it a setback, but Patrick Corbin was throwing much slower in his last extended spring training appearance and wasn’t effective. They’re now pushing his next appearance back. Ruh roh.
- Mmmmmm, Rubby! Rubby De La Rosa got a little hosed his last appearance – two outs and bases loaded and Kris Bryant just let a pitch hit him instead of getting out of the way, then Anthony Rizzo hit a first-pitch flare that carried and cleared the bases. Rubby was pitching great until that inning. I think he’s a guy to grab now or trade for in deeper leagues.
- I tried my hardest to put Dan Haren in, but yet again his game log reminds me he’s only pitched well in pitcher’s parks. Of course when he pitches at home that helps, but it’s crazy how precise it is.
Thoughts on Mr. Ball-Slinger? And how do you feel about his rank amongst these new Top 100? Shoot your thoughts below, and have a great Memorial Day, Razzball Nation!
