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Man, what a week for starting pitcher callups!  Thankfully we’re seeing Major League clubs unshy of bringing up their future aces instead of being little scaredy-cats and using the Super 2 as a crutch.  “Stop wasting some of your better pitched innings in the Minors, ya bums!”  That was me two years ago.  I was also skinnier and not married yet, so not everything has gotten better…

Right on the heels of the Jose Berrios callup, the A’s promoted Sean Manaea after an absolutely meteoric rise after being traded by the Royals in the Ben Zobrist deal.  Manaea always had power stuff and great K-rates, but never quite harnessed the command to get himself atop prospect lists.  But when you have awesome pure stuff, sometimes one minor tweak can take you from “meh” to “mania”!  After a 21:4 K:BB in Triple A over 18 innings this year, it certainly came with a lot of fanfare that Manaea was getting called up, and he’s surely scooped up in almost all leagues at this point.  Is he worth all the hype?  Here’s how he looked on Friday night in his MLB debut against the Astros:

First Inning: Manaea’s first big league pitch is a 93 MPH fastball taken by Jose Altuve for a high strike one.  Then 93 down and on the hands is popped to center, and it’s an easy two-pitch first out against the red hot Altuve.  Nice!  Then another fastball on the outside edge to George Springer is grounded to short, Marcus Semien drops to a leg to field and throw it, but it’s late by a microsecond.  Infield single for the quick Springer, and Manaea is in the stretch.  Slide step fastball at 93 MPH is zipped in to Carlos Correa for a strike, nice to see Manaea able to pitch out of the stretch.  First off-speed is a slider that stays outside off the plate, 1-1 fastball it a bit high, Springer takes off and he’s caught stealing at second.  Way to help out the rook!  Fastball nips the high inside black 2-2, slider again stays too far outside, but a nasty slider 3-2 bouncing in the dirt gets a horrible swing from Correa for Manaea’s first career K.

Sean-Manaea-Slider-1Second Inning: 91 MPH fastball is in there to Evan Gattis to open the 2nd, change-up flutters low and inside, then a fastball in the lower third right in a power-hitter’s wheelhouse is crushed to left center for a homer.  Stephen Vogt was setting up low in the middle, and the fastball missed high and a little inside…  So hoping to collect himself, slider is inside to Colby Rasmus, fastball hits the inside corner, 93 on the outside edge is swung through and missed, then Manaea hits 95 for the first time out there again, but Rasmus was sitting on it and lines it left, thankfully with Coco Crisp there for the out.  Manaea feeling that slider a little better bends it over for strike one to Tyler White, slider goes low and inside, then a 92 MPH fastball on the outer third is another hard liner, but right to Billy Burns to center for the second out.  Three straight hard hits.  Change-up barely misses outside to Carlos Gomez, 92 is flared foul, then fastball again is hit fairly hard up the gap for a two-out single.  Jed Lowrie should’ve made a better stab at that one though… 91 is in there for strike one to Marwin Gonzalez, 93 on the outside corner fouled away, then a high 93 MPH fastball is a high lazy fly to right and Manaea is out of the inning.

Third Inning: The A’s pick up 2 runs to give Manaea a 2-1 lead, and Erik Kratz rips a foul off a first pitch fastball, 0-1.  Fastball again is low, slider sweeps well low and inside, slider again is low again, then a 91 MPH fastball is wayyyy inside for a pretty brutal walk.  So runner on first with Altuve up and a fastball is in there, then fastball again at 93 is grounded right to short, and it’s a tailor-made double-play with Altuve slipping a bit out of the box to make it even easier. Then that backdoor slider rolls into the zone, with Springer tapping it right back to the mound for an easy play for Manaea to end the inning.

Fourth Inning: Manaea starts the 4th with that same backdoor slider but it’s low to Correa, 92 barely missed the outside corner 2-0, 93 MPH is well outside, then 91 is well inside for a 4-pitch leadoff walk.  Ugh.  92 MPH barely hits the outside black to Gattis, 92 zips across the zone and barely hits the inside black, pretty fortunate 0-2 count.  Then that devastating 79 MPH slider almost gets Gattis swinging after two fastball takes, nasty stuff here.

Sean-Manaea-Slider-2Back to the fastball that hits 94 is bareeeeely low, then 93 is inside, and 0-2 becomes 3-2.  Manaea then gets Correa running on a pickoff, but the throw from first to second is dropped by Lowrie for a steal.  They actually give it a CS and E 3, but he’s at second either way and shouldn’t be.  Then Manaea challenges Gattis with one of his best fastballs at 93 for a swinging strike and his second K on the day.

Sean-Manaea-FastballFirst pitch change-up to Rasmus is absolutely golfed to right, but thankfully it’s about 15 feet foul of a home run.  That was a rain maker right there!  Fastball is inside, 91 MPH just outside, 93 is low, then 94 is outside for another walk.  Fiddlesticks.  Change-up or hanging slider is wayyyy outside to White for a near wild pitch 1-0, 93 MPH is zipped in there 1-1, hanging change-up way high at 81, 93 stays outside, and man the command just hasn’t been there today.  But a 3-1 fastball is popped sky high and it’s caught in foul territory by third for the second out.  94 is a smidge outside 1-0 to Gomez, 94 again out there is fouled off, 94 again outside is fouled off, and nice to see some consistent velo on the higher side.  94 yet again is again fouled away, then a slider in the dirt gets Gomez to swing over it and gets Manaea out of the inning.  Gomez is just swinging at everything right now, thank God haha…

Fifth Inning: Even though it hasn’t felt like a “great” outing, Manaea is at 58 pitches through 4 and a first-pitch fastball is fouled off by Gonzalez, 92 MPH fastball ripped foul, slider goes way inside and low, and Manaea needs to make those a little closer to get big K numbers.  Instead he goes lower and insider, and it bounces behind Marwin’s feet.  Eesh.  High fastball flied foul, then a rolling slider is off the end of the bat for a weak grounder to second for the first out.  Then a first-pitch fastball to Kratz on the outer black is grounded to short for a routine groundout, two down.  Fastball outside to Altuve, fastball inside at 93 tipped back foul off the ump’s shoulder, then a huge slider at 76 rolls into the zone for strike two.

Sean-Manaea-Slider-3If Manaea can get some of those over for strikes, that would be a huge weapon.  Then 1-2 fastball is flied routinely to right, and Manaea is out of the inning.

Sixth Inning: The game remains 2-1 A’s, and a fastball is in there to Springer, slider is fouled back, 94 is overthrown and way outside, and then ugggghhhh 92 is overthrown again and hits Springer square in the back.  Had a range of about 6 feet between those two fastballs.  So runner on first, and Correa fouls off a fastball, 93 MPH is inside, 93 on the outside edge laced foul, slider skips in the dirt, 2-2 is a fastball that was outside but hit foul, 93 on the hands fouled off, slider dips low, and hard-fought full count.  And Manaea is outside with a fastball at 92 MPH for another walk.  Out comes pitching coach Curt Young for a chat, and Manaea responds with a great fastball at the knees of Gattis for strike one.  Change-up stays outside, Manaea tries that backdoor slider but it stays outside, 93 MPH fastball gets a whiff, fastball again outside is fouled back, but a 2-2 fastball again outside at 94 is pounded between short and third for an RBI single.  The location wasn’t too bad there, just some good hitting.  And that will end Manaea’s debut, and unfortunately both runners left on would score to mar his early-season ERA.

Final Line:  ND  5.0 IP  87 Pitches (50 Strikes)  4 ER  4 Hits  4 Walks  3 K  Gamescore: 42  Gamescore+: 44

Final Analysis: Even though the Gamescore+ came out a little higher than the Gamescore, I still wasn’t all that impressed with this debut start.  Now, how much of Manaea’s control/command issues could be attributed to nerves?  We’ll never know.  But as I mentioned in the open, command issues has been one of the bigger knocks on Manaea coming through the Minors, even though the walk totals have stayed pretty low.

This initial outing featured a heavy diet of fastballs, usually sitting 91-94.  I thought we’d see a few more in the mid-90s, but I’m pretty sure we had only one 95 MPH fastball.  Fangraphs had the average at 92.7, and I think we were expecting a little more gas than that.  And while he had pretty good movement on them, it looks like he kind of “slings” them in the zone, so it’s easy to see why he might have command issues. Manaea’s main off-speed offering is his slider, but he had trouble making it look hittable when breaking low in the zone trying to get Ks, and usually couldn’t get a feel for it for called strikes.  That final GIF to Altuve was nice though.  He also mixed in a few change-ups, but also didn’t have a great feel for them.

I didn’t have Manaea in my original ranks due to a leg issue he had in Spring and I thought the A’s would bring him along much more slowly.  I certainly would’ve said April was uber-aggressive, but after his minor injury didn’t turn out to be a big deal and fantastic numbers in AAA, it makes sense he got an early call.  While he gets a good boost in my ROS ranks, it’s more about him being called up and in the rotation, rather than what I saw in the debut.  I think he’ll struggle at times with command issues and I don’t know if we see a stellar K-rate that many were expecting.  If you nabbed him in a 10-team or 12-team league, I don’t know if I saw nearly enough to call him a “must-hold” but there’s a lot of raw stuff there to see what he does Wednesday against the Mariners.  I’ll be keeping a keen eye out for that start and hopefully see a little more consistency with the fastball velo and overall control/command.

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto, green for risers, red for fallers)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
2 Jake Arrieta, CHC
3 Chris Sale, CWS
4 Max Scherzer, WAS
5 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
6 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
7 Jose Fernandez, MIA
8 David Price, BOS
9 Madison Bumgarner, SF
10 Corey Kluber, CLE
11 Gerrit Cole, PIT
12 Matt Harvey, NYM
13 Chris Archer, TB
14 Jon Lester, CHC
15 Jacob deGrom, NYM
16 Zack Greinke, ARI
17 Carlos Martinez, STL
18 Danny Salazar, CLE
19 Felix Hernandez, SEA
20 Carlos Rodon, CWS
21 Cole Hamels, TEX
22 Joe Ross, WAS
23 Drew Smyly, TB
24 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
25 Carlos Carrasco, CLE
26 Johnny Cueto, SF
27 Taijuan Walker, SEA
28 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
29 Jeff Samardzija, SF
30 Sonny Gray, OAK
31 Vincent Velasquez, PHI
32 Francisco Liriano, PIT
33 Jason Hammel, CHC
34 Ian Kennedy, KC
35 Steven Matz, NYM
36 Jose Quintana, CWS
37 Garrett Richards, LAA
38 Yu Darvish, TEX
39 Patrick Corbin, ARI
40 Marcus Stroman, TOR
41 Michael Wacha, STL
42 Justin Verlander, DET
43 Hisashi Iwakuma, SEA
44 Yordano Ventura, KC
45 Jordan Zimmermann, DET
46 Wei-Yin Chen, MIA
47 Michael Pineda, NYY
48 Jake Odorizzi, TB
49 Kenta Maeda, LAD
50 Gio Gonzalez, WAS
51 Kevin Gausman, BAL
52 Juan Nicasio, PIT
53 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
54 John Lackey, STL
55 Adam Wainwright, STL
56 Mike Fiers, HOU
57 James Shields, SD
58 Luis Severino, NYY
59 Aaron Nola, PHI
60 Anthony DeSclafani, CIN
61 Aaron Sanchez, TOR
62 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
63 Jaime Garcia, STL
64 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI
65 Matt Moore, TB
66 Rich Hill, OAK
67 Adam Conley, MIA
68 Tyler Glasnow, PIT
69 Jose Berrios, MIN
70 Tanner Roark, WAS
71 Drew Pomeranz, SD
72 Sean Manaea, OAK
73 Lance McCullers, HOU
74 Julio Teheran, ATL
75 Robbie Ray, ARI
76 Collin McHugh, HOU
77 Raisel Iglesias, CIN
78 Andrew Cashner, SD
79 Edinson Volquez, KC
80 Tyson Ross, SD
81 Nate Karns, SEA
82 Rick Porcello, BOS
83 Scott Kazmir, LAD
84 Blake Snell, TB
85 Shelby Miller, ARI
86 Nathan Eovaldi, NYY
87 J.A. Happ, TOR
88 Mike Leake, STL
89 Derek Holland, TEX
90 Jon Niese, PIT
91 Hector Santiago, LAA
92 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS
93 Josh Tomlin, CLE
94 Mat Latos, CWS
95 Marco Estrada, TOR
96 Lucas Giolito, WAS
97 Chris Tillman, BAL
98 Rubby De La Rosa, ARI
99 A.J. Griffin, TEX
100 Junior Guerra, MIL

Dropped Out: Shane Greene, DET (Supergreene!  Superblister!  Should be the minimum 15-day DL stint, but he was barely in anyway), Jake Peavy, SF (yikes), Ervin Santana, MIN (DL-back)

  • I’m still not in full-blown panic mode for Felix Hernandez, but this K:BB is certainly off-putting.  Kinda like the world of online dating.  I had a buddy come down this weekend who is single in his late 20’s, and whew-ee!  It’s wild out there.  I immediately take back any connotation from that intro…
  • Aight, aight, aight…  I’m Matthew McConaughey-ing my admission that I was a little too low on Johnny Cueto, but his velocity is down so far and I’m probably still a little more hesitant than most.
  • Man, Jose Quintana has been unreal to start the year.  But we have seen flashes months-long through his seasons where he’s unbelievable, then goes meh…
  • Yu Darvish reportedly looked sharp and hit 97 in his first two rehab innings.  Cue the hype!  I still worry a little about his command – overall control issues have been a problem for him – but I’d be surprised if he didn’t have a 9+ K-rate right out of the gate.
  • While Jordan Zimmermann continues to get a W every start out, his xFIP is actually HIGHER than last year.  Velo is over a MPH lower, LOB% 92.3%, I’m not investing…
  • I was lucky enough to catch Tyler Glasnow‘s start against AAA Durham earlier last week (I recorded a full AB below with him striking out Daniel Robertson), and he was downright dominant, going 6.0 innings with 11:1 K:BB.  His two hits allowed were fluky singles.  Unfortunately he walked 5 in his last outing yesterday, but was otherwise fine allowing 2 hits and 0 ER with 7 K.  The numbers still look great in AAA and I think he’s up sooner than later.

  • I’m reallllly worried about Raisel Iglesias‘s shoulder…  Tough, tough blow there for a sleeper for a lot of teams.  Hopefully it ends up being a shorter DL stint, but anything with the shoulder in general, and him him having shoulder fatigue last year…  Yikes.
  • This lengthy knee stuff for Eduardo Rodriguez is starting to really GRIND MY GEARS!  Eschewing my inner loud-mouthed Northerner right there!
  • So I decided to go bold and be a homer with my #100 spot and recommend Junior Guerra for all NL-only leagues.  While he’s old (31), he was signed at 16 as a catcher and converted to a pitcher down the road.  After bouncing around some international leagues, he signed in 2015 with the White Sox, who oddly let him go after showing some great K numbers (105 K in 83.1 AA/AAA innings).  A lot of his production came in relief appearances, but he did make 11 starts last year and the Brewers then fully converted him into a starter after picking him up this ofseason.  He started hot in AAA, and while his last two AAA starts haven’t been that good, one was at home in the notoriously tough-to-pitch-in Colorado Springs park and the other a cold, cold night in Omaha.  He’s been clocked as high as 98 and should have solid velo, and has a devastating split-finger change-up out-pitch.  Ok, homerism rant over, but deeper leagues should take a look.

Do you have Manaea mania?!  And what does everyone think on this week’s rankings update?  As always, shoot your thoughts below, and happy May pitching!

 
  1. Milarky says:
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    Hey JB, I got Grey’s opinion, but curious about yours. Need help picking my SPs for next week – not a lot of clear 2-start options for me, and many of the matchups are brutal. I need to pick 7 of these guys;

    Scherzer (@CHC)
    Salazar (KC)
    Klluber (DET)
    Chen (PHI)
    Corbin (@MIA, @ATL)
    Gausman (OAK)
    Berrios (@HOU, @CHW)
    Karns (@OAK, @HOU)
    Ross (@CHC)
    Eickhoff (@STL)

    One note – I have to choose one of Berrios or Eickhoff (we must start a rookie) even though they’ve got nightmare matchups.

    • B the Esq. says:
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      @Milarky: Eichkoff isnt a rookie this year….51 innings pitched last year….

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Milarky: Gotcha, well I do like Karns and I like those matchups for Corbin, so those I like. As @B the Esq.: mentions, if Eickhoff might not count as a rookie, but if you had to play one, I would take the gamble on 2 from Berrios.

        So Karns, Corbin, Berrios, Scherz, Salazar, Kluber for a solid 6. R Ross or J Ross is that next one? I’d take Joe is J Ross, if not, Chen

        • Milarky says:
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          @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the feedback guys. For the rules we have in place (because we have to be different), Eickhoff is still a rookie. And it’s Joe Ross. So you’d take Ross @CHC over Chen at home against PHI? I did have him pencilled in but it makes me nervous. I also didn’t have Karns in, but I guess if there’s a week to play him this would be it.

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Milarky: Hah, everyone wants to be different! Yup, give me Ross. Looks great so far, and I think he has K stuff that hasn’t gotten a huge K game yet, and this could be it.

            I think Karns is a little underrated – he’s still prob one of your last pitchers, but those 2 starts are nice.

  2. Five-On-One says:
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    Hey JB – You have the rooks (Berrios, Glasnow and Manaea) all ranked about equally. Do you really see that little difference in their prospects for this year. Or is any rookie too difficult to project with any confidence? Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Five-On-One: Well it’s a lot of factors. Berrios and Manaea I indeed don’t see a big difference between, fantasy-wise. Glasnow is different, because I think he’s gonna take the league by storm. Say I knew he was being called up tomorrow, he would prob push my top-50. Then after a start or two and it all looks good, top-40 maybe even approaching 30. I think he’s a monster and saw him live as linked there, easily the most impressive start I’ve seen in the Minor Leagues, and that includes an 8.1 inning no-hit game Mike Montgomery threw a few years ago haha. I’ve seen Cobb, Archer, and a few other good prospects… Nothing like Glasnow.

  3. John says:
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    Hi,

    Hoping to buy low on archer. Is my Suarez and Keuchel for Kipnis and Archer a low ball offer? Guy is sitting in last place. I have Jimmy Nelson I could always throw in.

    Thanks in advance.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @John: Ummm, I’d say it’s fairly low-ball, but not insulting or anything. I fully believe in Archer too and I’m really low on Keuchel, so I might kinda have an extreme view. Def wouldn’t hurt to offer it.

  4. Harper'sBetterThanTrout says:
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    When do you think Giolito will be up?

  5. Eric B says:
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    Well that analysis made me feel better about missing out on Manaealol. I had snagged Berrios a day prior to Manaea getting the call. While Berrios didnt fare too well himself, I’m hoping to see more from him in tonights start. If not I may have to cut bait with him and stash either Trea or AJ Reed. Do you like one better than the other?

    I also saw Nicasio held tight in the upper 50’s, he looked much better in his last start, I have him on my watch list, just really not sure if he’s legit or not. I also still have E-Rod on my DL, I’ve been patient with him but Im ready to see him get healthy already…geesh.

    Havent done much tinkering with my roster this last week, was offered Shark for Tolleson but that would take my closers down to McGee, Viz, and Kimbrel with no closers at all on the wire. This is by the same guy that snagged Para before I could lol and he already has Colome, Gregerson, Osuna, May and Perkins(on the DL). I already offered him Berrios or Viz for Parra but he turned both down. Thoughts on that offer based on the arms I already own?

    ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS and 4 keepers per season

    C Molina
    1B Cabrera
    2B Daniel Murphy
    3B Seager
    SS A. Russell
    OF Stanton
    OF Springer
    OF Polanco
    UTIL OF Burns
    UTIL OF/DH Sano
    Bench 2B/SS Castro
    DL Pollock

    SP Salazar
    SP Corbin
    RP Kimbrel
    RP McGee
    P T. Walker
    P Odorizzi
    P C.Rodon
    P Gausman
    Bench SP Berrios
    Bench SP Kennedy
    Bench RP Vizcaino
    Bench RP Tolleson
    DL SP E-Rod

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Eric B: Hah, yeah def not the “ace-like” lefty dominance I had heard touted going into it. I went in with a pretty open mind too.

      I’d prob prefer Turner for the position he plays and SB upside.

      Hah yeah, you and me both on E-Rod! As mentioned, had to bring him down. Yeah I’m kinda annoyed I like Nicasio, but also REALLLLLLY like Glasnow. Sure Locke can go, but it’s still kinda a crowded rotation.

      Those two offers for Parra were def legit, especially since he just added him. I have no issue sending Tolleson over though

      • Eric B says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Thoughts on Shark? I see he’s in your top 30, havent followed him much this year. I guess my thinking is Im currently winning the saves categories most weeks, if I lose Tolleson, that will disappear as the Braves dont win much and Viz doesnt get Saves, so Im almost going with McGee and Kimbrel as my only closers if I lose Tolleson…is the addition of Shark worth that iyo?

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Eric B: He remains pretty high in my ranks due to durability. Should easily pass 200 innings, approach 180-190 Ks, and I think have a decent ERA/WHIP. I don’t think you need a new SP though. I meant your two offers were legit, I wouldn’t give Tolleson for him right now

          • Eric B says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Oh okay cool, sorry speed reading and replying lol. I thought myu offers were fair too but when you’re the defending champ people tend to want to win every trade lol.

            How did you like your Panthers draft? Fairly pleased with the skins, took BPA and filled some holes in the process.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Eric B: Hah no worries! And yeah, I know what that’s like with some of my friends, if it’s someone starting slow they’re like, “oh wait, JB wants this guy, better not!”

              Sooooo many CB for us! Some panic after losing Norman hahaha. But nah I think we did aight

              • Eric B says:
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                @JB Gilpin: Would you counter his offer with McGee for Parra? Not sure he’d even go for it, didnt want Berrios or Viz for him. Is Parra enough to give up an edge in saves?

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Eric B: Yeahhhh I think the steals will help out enough to do that one. I like McGee , but this latest binge in SV seems fluky for the Rox, who will likely be lower in SV opportunities due to offensive skewed numbers

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: Thanks I’ll look into it…in the meantime if that falls through would you drop Berrios for Kris Davis, Severino or still stash Trea Turner?

                    • Eric B says:
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                      @Eric B: Well scratch the stash of Turner he just got scooped up…damn it lol.

                • JB Gilpin

                  JB Gilpin says:
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                  @Eric B: Out of room! No issue streaming Davis while hot, I just nabbed him in one league. Would depend on your power need for this week

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @JB Gilpin: Ha, I should change my handle up here to “out of room” lol…did you see any of Berrios last night? Filthy at times but wild at others but man *ks in 5 innings, you think hes worth hanging on to or Im better off streaming his spot? I still have Erod on the DL too so he might have to be cut eventually regardless.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Eric B: I know right?! Yeah Berrios has a lot of moving parts going on mechanically it seemed watching his debut. In redraft or a shallower keeper like yours, yeah I’m prob streaming

  6. dk says:
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    Thoughts on Jesse Hahn?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @dk: He barely didn’t make the cut. But I did think on him with that nice debut. 13:9 K:BB in 17.2 IP in AAA, bad in spring training, and had to stop throwing sliders due to elbow issues last year. I’m just a bit scurred

  7. Steve says:
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    If Taillon were called up next week, where would he rank (50-70, 70-90 or not at all)?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Steve: I think right in that 60 to 70 range, with a lot of that being how many innings he’ll throw. I like Glasnow a good bit more for context, which isn’t exactly an unpopular opinion or anything though… I’ll probably keep Taillon out of the ranks until there’s a firm callup date

  8. DMC says:
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    Moore or Bartolo for 2 starts this week (just for this week) in a points league (with .5 point per K). Bartolo’s matchups make my pants happy, and trusting Moore to get 2 starts in 5 games makes me nervous

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @DMC: Hah, yeah I’m not the biggest Moore guy, and yup Colon’s matchups are pitch-a-tent worth, but I’ll stick with Moore. NL team at home, then Angels on the road ain’t bad

  9. phil says:
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    Do I pick up AJ Griffin or Manaea?

  10. phil says:
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    Would you pick up AJ Griffin or Manaea?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @phil: Def would go upside of Manaea

  11. WillisReid says:
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    I wish the S-o-N liked Rodon as much as you and Grey do.

    I used him until the blow up in Anaheim, haven’t had the courage to use him since.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @WillisReid: S-o-N is a cranky little ish sometimes! That Angels start was really his only bad one on the year. Other 4 starts K:BB -> 6:1, 6:5, 7:2, 7:1. That’s not bad at all! And he was cruising vs. Orioles for a while before running into a little trouble

  12. Scott says:
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    Mananea slingin’ hash! Hopefully the pitching coach works on that follow-through.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott: Yeah I probably coulda gotten into the mechanics a little more, it looked like that slinging motion brought him off balance a few times when he overthrew, i.e. arm whipping across, and bringing too much weight across his body

      • Scott says:
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        @JB Gilpin: I thought you did.

        “And while he had pretty good movement on them, it looks like he kind of “slings” them in the zone, so it’s easy to see why he might have command issues.”

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Scott: Yeah I meant dig a little deeper, btu sounds like the msg indeed got across :)

  13. Maver1ck says:
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    Hi JB! First time commenter long time reader…

    What’s your opinion on Severino for the remainder of the year?

    Obviously he has been poor the first month but has he shown anything to you thinking he may turn it around? Is it likely?

    He was dropped in a league which we have super deep rosters (other best SP’s available are Eovaldi, Estrada, Happ, Leake, etc…) Is he worth putting in a FAAB bid to roster over those type of guys in hopes that he turns it around and has higher potential?

    Great work as always!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Maver1ck: Welcome to the comments, thanks for reading! His stock is falling for sure, but velo is still there and he’s not walking anyone, so there’s still some optimism. He’s def better than a 6 ERA! Yeah I would def give him some FAAB money with those the best available – maybe bench his next start or two, but he’s worth a stash in deeper leagues.

      Any time!

  14. omar says:
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    Drop Hahn for Severino in Al-Only league?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @omar: Oh yeah, I def would

  15. Clive says:
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    Currently have Strasburg, Cole, Salazar, Maeda, Walker, Rodon, Pomeranz, Minaea..

    Would you drop any for Porcello? Considering dropping another SP for Lawrie.. Ditch Pom/Minaea for Porcello/Lawrie?

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Clive: Eeeesh tough one. I’ve just been burnt by Porcello before, I dunno if I trust the Ks. I kinda wanna see one more Manaea start before cutting. How much do you need offense? If Lawrie is playing most of the time, I would keep the pitchers. I’d have no issue losing Pomeranz for Porcello and see if this hot streak keeps up, but I’m hedging against it for Porcello

  16. Don says:
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    According to Yahoo 5×5, Nola is approximately the 30th best P, and he’s 4th in xFIP for pitchers with at least 30 IP. In what way do you see him regressing? Maybe some adjustment in K and BB rate?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Don: It’s still verrrrrrrrrrrry early. Ks weight a ton in xFIP, and I definitely don’t trust a 10+ K rate to sustain all year. His BABIP is also .247. His ERA is only looking bad due to some bad luck not stranding runners (64.5% LOB – 70% is about “normal”), but I think he’ll have more runners on as the BABIP increases to the mean, and less an ability to strand them with Ks.

      • Don says:
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        @JB Gilpin: preciate it

    • Baseball Fan 2000 says:
      (link)

      @Don: I had the same question. HIs k to bb is amazing so far, and he pitched well last year so this kind of improvement isn’t totally out of the realm of possibilities. According to the fangraphs plate discipline on him, hitters are taking a lot more pitches in the zone against him (same discipline outside of the zone though). When they do swing (at all pitches), they’re making significantly less contact as well, which explains his higher strikeout rate.

        • Baseball Fan 2000 says:
          (link)

          @Baseball Fan 2000: The babip is low but he is allowing more soft contact than hard. Even if he can’t sustain it and the babip goes to .300, the previously mentioned regression to mean in LOB should counteract that effect.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Don: @Baseball Fan 2000: Meh, there’s no “true” answer for sample size question marks. A Fangraphs “principle” isn’t like a one-size-fits-all bedrock of baseball.

          He’s faced 3 bad teams out of 5 games, given a lot of NL teams are bad, but he throws 90.0 MPH right now and had iffy K rates in the minors.

          Improvement possible? Sure. But going from low Minor League K rates and 7.88 K rate last year to 10 plus?! That’s not an improvement, that a completely different pitcher! And I dunno if I buy he’s taken such a gigantic leap until I see another 3-4 starts probably. Like, if he Ks 7 Giants, I’d be changing my tune

  17. omar says:
    (link)

    Sell high on Aaron Sanchez? Or can he keep up his current production. Everything points to him moving to the pen at some point. Not sure if that’s good or bad. Having a lot of success with swing men early on (Erasmo) in AL-Only. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @omar: Oh yeah I probably would in redraft. Keeper league I might hold on. Moving to the pen is almost certainly bad. I’d certainly shop him around

  18. your mom says:
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    hi. in a keeper (20 team keep 8) league, would you trade a first and fourth round pick for a pitcher like rodon? thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @your mom: Hmmmm. That seems fair, kinda depends on how much you’re playing for right now vs. future. I might try for a 2nd and 4th first

      • your mom says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: thanks. my plan every year really is to compete for the title(i don’t know how to “rebuild”). and i feel that my pitching is “weak” this year. My sps are:
        arrieta, stras, holland, karns, stripling, tropeano.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @your mom: Pretty dominant up front! Keeping 8 though, Rodon I dunno if he’s worth keeping unless you have 5 great hitters and kinda meh from there.

          • your mom says:
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            @JB Gilpin: i have old hitters im not sure im keeping-pujols and beltre.. The rest are hundley, carter, schoop, polanco, marte, j up, villar, deshields. We start 3 ofs and 1 util. Is rodon worth keeping over my hitters? Melancon and jeffress are my only closers so maybe keep melancon too? Thanks

            • your mom says:
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              @your mom: it is h2h league btw

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @your mom: Gotcha, so let’s throw out those old guys. Meh maybe Beltre we’ll keep in mind. Keeping:

                Marte, Upton, Polanco. Then def Arrieta and Strasburg. Yeah Rodon is likely a keeper, I’d guess with Melancon and Beltre rounding you out, but someone could emerge for that 8th spot. So I like the deal

                • mUshi says:
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                  @JB Gilpin: Yes! im pretty sure i’ll be trading for more pieces to make a push this year. thanks!

                  • JB Gilpin

                    JB Gilpin says:
                    (link)

                    @mUshi: Awesome, sounds like a plan! Any time!

  19. Scott says:
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    Was it last year that Pineda got off to a bad start and then starting winning fantasy owners their pitching cats?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Scott: I thought he got off to a good start… [looking up his stats] yeah April and May were solid, I think he had like a 16 K game in there, then bad June, OK July, then bad dropoff at the end. 2014 he was good pretty much the whole time when healthy, but didn’t pitch much. In rookie 2011 year he started realllly strong, then fell off

  20. Big Jabroni says:
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    Who you got in a trade: Moustakas for Fraizer?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Big Jabroni: Definitely Frazier!

  21. griff says:
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    Do you feel good ab5ot J. Ross @ Cubs and Nola @ Cards? Don’t have to start either but can. Just wondering your thoughts.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @griff: Yeah I like Ross, I’ve been his biggest supporter and would play him there. Nola has probably been too good to sit too, if you can fit them both in

  22. Aaron Sorekin says:
    (link)

    10 team OBP/SVH roto league

    I was offered Chapman and Darvish for my Freeman/Vizcaino/Hendricks…he would maybe put greinke instead of Darvish

    Lineup is 1B: Ortiz, Freeman, Park 2B: Panik, Zobrist SS: Seager 3B: Maikal Franco OF: Bryce, Stranton, Cain, Conforto, Holliday, Dyson P: Straus, Hamels, Hendricks, Odorizzi, Velasquez, Matt Moore, Iwakuma, Britton, Rondon, Vizcaino, Herrera, Nate Jones, Neris.
    Thank you!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Aaron Sorekin: OH cool, so Ortiz counts as 1B as does Park? Yeah Freeman is kinda meh and expendable. I like getting Greinke low though a bit more, but the hype for Darvish seems founded. I kinda like it as is too!

  23. Nitro says:
    (link)

    Still have Rodon at 20? Hard for me to trust him, can you explain?
    Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Nitro: He’s only had one bad game. Kinda went into it above in a comment with the K rates – 6:1, 6:5, 7:2, 7:1 taking out the blowup. BB rate is down, LOB% is unlucky low and his HR rate is unlucky high. I’ve seen nothing to concern me from being big on him coming into the year.

  24. Gonzo_The_Great says:
    (link)

    Can we talk about a guy who confuses the crap out of me? Tanner Roark.

    I didn’t even expect him to stay in the rotation all year, let alone be fantasy relevant. That being said, his big games have come against some pretty miserable lineups.

    Would you bench him against the gruesome twosome of the Royals and Cubs this week?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Gonzo_The_Great: Yeah Roark is interesting – I don’t buy the K rate so far (obviously a 15er will do that!), but he looks solid, still isn’t that old, and pitches for such a good team in that bad division. I might be too late for a weekly lock, but depending on the format, I probably wouldn’t, but tough call depending on what the alternatives are

  25. Blender says:
    (link)

    I should drop Eovaldi for Fiers? I just don’t know about Fiers’ stuff. Its a 12 team h2h league where I can just hold a player out if its a bad matchup.

    I guess I made a mistake dropping Nola based on the same thing with Fiers, his stuff doesn’t seem that good. What the deal?

    • Blender says:
      (link)

      @Blender: HRs allowed is also a big concern.

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
        (link)

        @Blender: I would. I don’t know about Eovaldi’s stuff! K rate seems to be an anomaly too. Fiers will give up home runs though, but Eovaldi has too.

        Fiers relies on deception, but he also relies on pinpoint control and command. When not hitting his spots on the corners, he can get hit hard. If Eovaldi was coming up with the velo he has as a 23 yr old, I would probably be buying, but we have a longgggg sample of mediocre numbers now

  26. dem ribbies says:
    (link)

    What do you think about Julio Urias? Do you think we see him after Super 2 or is he more of a September guy?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @dem ribbies: I’d lean more September guy, or lefty reliever for a bit ala David Price. Although Price came up late that rookie year though I think…

  27. Chris says:
    (link)

    Thanks JB!

    I’m in a 14 team league h2h 5×5. We are currently tied 11-11 in starts but he has me 2-1 for closers. I have Krod he has Ramos and Casillia.

    Would it be crazy for me to start Sean May and Salas over Manaea and Fiers? Hope for better whip era and possibly a save out of one of those guys?

    Fiers vs Min and Manaea vs Seattle.

    Gotta get it in soon hope you can get back to me in the next half an hour!

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Thanks for stopping by! Ah damn, yeah Podcast recorded/drive home from work has me miss a few hours of comments. Mehhhh I would probably keep in the starters, definitely Fiers. May vs. Manaea would be close. Who’d you go with?

      • Chris says:
        (link)

        no problem j-foh hooked me up! I understand your not at my be on call or something similar lol I went with fiers and salas we’ll see. Can’t stand this h2h crap I’m in a 14 team league and am currently 7 th if it was straight roto I would be in 3rd

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Chris: Oh sweet, glad he helped out! Well we both went Fiers and swapped the relievers so we were close. Yeah I’m not a H2H fan, too much week-to-week flukiness for me :)

  28. Chris says:
    (link)

    Or May or Salas and start 1 of the 2?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Hah yeah prob May and Fiers woulda been my 2

  29. Ryab says:
    (link)

    Alex Wood has a very interesting home-away split, and its pretty even his whole career or sample size, however you want to cut it. He plays like a top 30 SP at home and is a disaster on the road. For that reason he plays better than many of the guys you have listed beyond the top 75… take a look

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ryab: Ugh yeah and I used to lovvvvve Alex Wood. Maybe because he broke my heart I have been hesitant to bring him back. Although I’m still not weighing home/road too much for him yet, Turner is a great pitchers park. Kaufman isn’t awful, but it’s not that good, and there’s been interesting speculation that there’s a lot more Ks in Turner than there’s been in other parks over the last 5 years or something.

      ROS ranks are always tough in context, I’m ranking ROS as if you had to leave him in your lineup without touching it for ROS. His bad starts are overall gonna hurt too much IMO. I do agree he’s a very interesting streamer in good matchups at home though

  30. Chris says:
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    Would anyone go Saunders over Pedersen this week?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chris: Yeah I probably would

  31. Jim Wiser says:
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    Where do you have Anibal Sanchez ranked?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jim Wiser: Hah like, 130 or something lol

      • Jim Wiser says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Thanks, Dropped him for Rubby.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Jim Wiser: I fully support that decision!

  32. Sam says:
    (link)

    Which side: G-Rich and Conforto or Price and Peralta (no keeper implications, standard roto 5×5… fairly deep with 27 man rosters, 12 teams)

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Sam: Whewwwwwwwwwwwwwww. I really REALLY like Conforto. But I think Price can bounce back. Deep league, gimme the offense, I’ll lean Conforto but that’s as even as it gets

      • Sam says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the advice brother!

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Sam: Any time!

  33. Jon says:
    (link)

    Straily or Finnegan the better Red SP to own?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Jon: Meh, Finnegan I had ranked for a few weeks earlier on, but I hate the walks. I guess I’d take him, but they’re close, I worry about Straily a lot though. .193 BABIP and his worst walk rate of his career at any level/stretch. Sure it’s small sample, but seems like a biggggg knock of regression is coming

  34. David says:
    (link)

    I saw where you ranked them, but Pomeranz or Manaea ROS. Thanks.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @David: Hah it’s funny because I remember legit debating that with them back to back. As in an above comment, rankings can be fickle based on context, if I couldn’t make moves and stuck with one ROS, Pomeranz but oh so close. If a 12er league with an open waiver wire, I would take Manaea. Manaea could also go back to the Minors if he struggles a few more starts with control/command

  35. TheTinDoor says:
    (link)

    Nice on Cueto! of course he gave up 6 ER in 5 IP tonight, lol. Although the 8 Ks soften the blow a little…

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @TheTinDoor: Yeah, I mean I think I still have him lower than most, but yeah he’s looked better than I thought. I don’t completely ignore commenters thoughts, that’s for sure! No rankings will ever be infallible and devoid of mistakes!

  36. The Great Knoche says:
    (link)

    Played local baseball with a kid who was at Indiana St with Manaea, said he has control problems…but that was 3 years ago. Also said no one on team could touch him when he was on. We’ll see.

    Also on a side note, Chris Carter hitting .278 is soooooo much higher than Eddie Lacys reporting weight is going to be.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @The Great Knoche: Yeah I could totally see that, but at the ML level, I don’t know how successful that will be… Especially early in his career. I think we could see a Rodon season, or a demotion.

      Oh yeah, thanks for reminding me on that! I think I took Carter’s average and Lacy is losing weight. Unsurprisingly, I am trying to shop Carter for pitching, unfortunately your Rockies aren’t a great trade partner :)

  37. Alex says:
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    Would you trade tanner Rourke or starlin Castro for Berrios or stay put?

    • The Great Knoche says:
      (link)

      @Alex: Unless a keeper/dynasty i’d hold.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @The Great Knoche: @Alex: To get Berrios, def would in keeper or dynasty, but agree probably holding in redraft.

  38. Ralphy says:
    (link)

    I am surprised that Pineda and Severino are still ranked at 47 and 58. I thought these guys were schmohawks by now. I own both and am itching to drop them but these rankings make me hesitant. Are they dropping?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Ralphy: Oh definitely dropping, Pineda was in red last week and Severino gets the red for “falling” this week. 47 and 58 are out of “must own” range for me for sure in 10 or 12ers. In ROS context, I still think there’s enough there for those ranks though. If you’re in a 10 or 12er, don’t let those ranks make you hold onto them for streaming.

  39. 740 says:
    (link)

    Wats good JB,

    Question Rodon why so high?

    He’s on waiver drop Nola, Berrios, Porcello for him?
    10team h2h 5x5cats

    Thanks!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @740: Came in with him that high, and I’ve seen nothing to drop him. From a comment I made above “He’s only had one bad game. Kinda went into it above in a comment with the K rates – 6:1, 6:5, 7:2, 7:1 taking out the blowup. BB rate is down, LOB% is unlucky low and his HR rate is unlucky high. I’ve seen nothing to concern me from being big on him coming into the year.”

      I’d lose either Berrios or Porcello. Sucks to drop Porcello this hot or Berrios off his first win and getting buzz, but I would lose one of em

  40. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    Monster deal accepted! Ok well it’s not one huge deal but two, but here they are combined from my dynasty league (OBP instead of AVG)

    Deal: Miggy, Dee (tosser!), Cozart, Kendrick, Price
    FOR
    Springer, E5, Moore, Segura, Fielder.

    Probably gonna make or break my season! But I needed speed after friggin Dee got busted, and loving Moore’s start this year with the K/BB improvements, and you know how im worried about Price! So overall what do you reckon? (don’t say anything bad please haha). Think I got a lot younger too overall so even if it’s not this year I will be better in future.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan: It’s definitely a monster deal! Yeah Dee was a bummer. Sucks to lose Miggy, but yeah it’s him and Price who are aging and Dee who barely is gonna help this year for a pretty good haul. Springer with his youth is a kicker, I def like it for you!

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: I always liked your opinion! Phew… glad I didn’t blow my chances haha. I think Miggy will decline faster than people think (still not pulling with authority this season and injury risk now), Price too who’s more of a stuff than command guy (velo drop), and who knows how good Dee will actually be when he’s back, plus his improvements last year were massively BABIP driven (AND he burns a roster spot). Other main reason was to get speed as I hardly had any without Dee, so Springer and Segura should fill that nicely. Just hope Moore’s improvements are legit! And Fielder and E5 hopefully prove good buy lows.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Swfcdan: Glad to confirm the good deal! Yeah I think it’s the rare mix of a good deal for you now, AND a good deal for the future. Fielder I’m kinda iffy on, but E5 I think gets better

  41. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
    (link)

    What up JB?! Got offered this and I’m mulling it: give my Tomas, Jeanmar and Chris Carter for Ellsbury, Span and Jake lamb?

    My other closers are familia and Andrew Miller, so I might be a little light there… I don’t love either jacoby or span but they’re the best in the deal right, and I’m kind of light on speed… Thoughts??

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @SheriffMcRawDawg: Whats up man?! Mehhhh Span isn’t too different and I just don’t know about Jacoby, not playing great and obviously the injury risk… I think I might actually hold off there, it’s close so you could restructure it a smidge and might like it more.

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: yeah I really don’t think I want to do it… I do need speed tho b/c Deshields is hurting me…

        do you think Andrew Miller 100% loses his job when chapman returns or do they trade one? what kidn of closer would you target now to flip him? like a McGee or Ramos? I need those saves bc Storen screwed me haha

        thanks

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @SheriffMcRawDawg: Everyone followed Grey to the DeShields train, but not me! I didn’t dislike him though… Ummmm, yeah I would say for the most part, I think Miller might snipe a save or two if Chapman needs rest, but it’s a little early to think Yanks will for-sure sell one. Hah yeah McGee or Ramos I would def take over Miller, would send those ASAP. Any time, as always!

          • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: you just HAD to go ahead and make this about you and Grey!

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @SheriffMcRawDawg: Everything in my life goes back to that fateful hour I have with Grey every week!

  42. Chucky says:
    (link)

    12 Team Dynasty, Dropped Delscafani and his setback oblique for Jon Gray. The back to back double digit K games have me reminiscing of thoughts of Kerry Wood dancing in my head. Thoughts?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Chucky: Yeah I missed the DeScalafni news, full disclosure. I saw a few innings of Gray and he certainly opened my eyes. Just suckkkkkks he’s in Coors, but I like that swap for the upside.

  43. apoxonbothyourhouses says:
    (link)

    why so low on Shields? The lack of Wins upside? His WHIP-inflation? Seems like he’s pitching like he’s always done: top-30 SP.

    ditto on Stroman. Why so low?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @apoxonbothyourhouses: Shields wasn’t top 30 last year… He’s what I wrote in preseason: “One of the most baffling seasons from a veteran with a lot of data behind him I can remember, Shields went from innings-eater with meh Ks and low walks, to monster Ks with high walks and a ton of homers in 2015. His fastball lost some velo, but it wasn’t demonstrative and his arsenal seemed about the same. That said, his four-seam/two-seam/cutter all were hit hard, while his change-up and curveball had .212 and .190 BAA and got the vast majority of his Ks. What that says to me is hitters knew his fastball variants were incredibly hittable, and were sitting dead-red fastball. It’s worrisome.” All he’s done is had much worse Ks with the same bad walks, he’s wellllllll outside the top 30 in Roto leagues (which these ranks are for). Same with Stroman – it’s a Roto thing with bad Ks. In Starts or Innings Limit leagues, the low Ks really hurt. Are you in a Pts league? They would be ranked higher in Pts…

  44. Swfcdan says:
    (link)

    Not buying Rich Hill or Matt Moore yet? I somehow managed to claim Hill off waivers and gonna ride out this as long as it lasts! Moore’s K/BB improvements are very encouraging no? He’s whiffing big numbers and seems like keeping the homers down is his final challenge, and he’s in a good park to do that.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
      (link)

      @Swfcdan: Nah, not quite yet. They’ve gone up the past few weeks, but Hill I worry about how many innings he gets through. Moore I’ve just never been a fan of, but a few more weeks of this with low BB and he’ll go up. Definitely would own them both while hot, but still have ROS concerns

      • Swfcdan says:
        (link)

        @JB Gilpin: Yeah im not expecting Hill to be the next Mad Bum or anything, glad to claim him off the wire though and in a 16er H2H im just going to ride this as long as it last. A really funny piece written recently on fangraphs about him here, that’s baseball for you…craziness!

        http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/name-that-pitcher-present-rich-hill-or-peak-max-scherzer/

        I really do think Moore is improved, going back to the final few months last season., but we’ll wait and see to see if the control remains. At least the velocity is right back up again, so even if a bit wild he shouldn’t get bombed and will provide K’s.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
          (link)

          @Swfcdan: Oh for sure! He’s been a gold mine in a league that deep.

          Yeah but Moore was bad at first, and still had control issues then, of course off the TJ it’s not that surprising. I do think the Ks are for real though.

          Hah just read that article, very interesting!

          • Swfcdan says:
            (link)

            @JB Gilpin: And now he gets shelled last night! Ugh, well at least the trade hadn’t processed then haha, still won’t overreact after just one start.

            And so Leicester won the league on monday, what a story. And my team Sheffield Wednesday have made the playoffs to try for promotion to the Premier league, playoff games start in a week or two so try and watch out for it! I’ll be going to the home game here no doubt, will be an awesome atmosphere.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
              (link)

              @Swfcdan: Hah yeah not as sharp for Moore there…

              What a story for Leicester indeed I watched the 1-1 game, crazy that Morgan got that goal too. Awesome! I’ll watch for swfc here in the states, hope they have them on at some point!

  45. My SPs in a 15-team roto league are Moore, Cole, Pomeranz, and Salazar, with a spot for streaming, plus Ross on the DL.

    The FAs not marked in red who are ranked ahead of my lowest SPs on this list (Pomeranz, Moore) are Shields and Hendricks, with Manaea a rank below. Would you switch any of those guys out? Or at that level in the rankings, is the difference between guys relatively small. I feel pretty comfortable with the guys I have but your list made me wonder.

    Also, which scares you more between Edoardo Rodriguez’ knee and Ross’ shoulder? Should I replace Ross on the DL with Rodriguez?

    Thanks for the help, JB!

    • @Enrique: Hendricks was just dropped, so I’d have to wait until Thursday to get him (it wouldn’t be in time to have him on the roster for Thursday’s start).

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Enrique: Difference is small, and context makes answers different vs. ROS terms. I’d def own Moore while hot over those guys to see what happens, I think you own the right guys. I think Ross’s shoulder worries me more, but even though I’ve never been a big Ross guy, he’s a better pitcher when healthy over E-Rod I would say. So I’d keep holding Ross. Thanks for dropping by!

        • @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the response and the explanations.

          I don’t want to use my No. 1 waiver priority for him, but if Hendricks clears waivers (I’ll know Thursday) do you think he’s an improvement over Pomeranz? I’ve seen Pomeranz pitch and I like what I saw — plus, you can’t beat his home field. But as Grey pointed out a few days back he may only win 7 or 8 games. I might get, what, 6 extra wins out of Hendricks? Or is that too optimistic?

          • JB Gilpin

            JB Gilpin says:
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            @Enrique: Any time! Ah yeah I think Hendricks is safer and gives W potential over Pomeranz for sure. Petco has actually played more neutral the past few years. AT&T in SF is muchhhh better these days. I think 6 more wins is a prefect number to guess for Hendricks over Drew, with about the same Ks and ERA, better WHIP for Hendricks too.

  46. Scott says:
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    I’ve been doing some research in preventing baseball injury for my son’s team and I discovered an article about pitching mechanics that make you prone to injury. And the two bad examples they gave were JoFer and Stressbird. Cust kayin’

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott: Hah, interesting… Well, I take mechanical issues and degree of concern for injury with a pretty big grain of salt. Chris Sale has always had those concerns and has been relatively healthy for a while, same with Alex Wood, even though he’s just not been as good haha. On the flip side, I always thought Matt Moore had this beautiful, clean, lefty mechanics, and he gets TJ… So ya never know…

      • Scott says:
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        @JB Gilpin: True, genetics also play a role and other things you can’t see. On the flip-side, examples of good mechanics they gave are Tom Seaver and Nolan Ryan.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Scott: Hah, well in hindsight, it’s easy to pick healthy Hall of Famers haha. I just think it will be an unasnwerable question unless they have affordable, advanced MRIs they can give pitchers every day, or something wild like that

          • Scott says:
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            @JB Gilpin: After more researching i see you are correct. Good talking with you!

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Scott: Any time man! hopefully they can get something futuristic to help avoid injuries down the road…

  47. James says:
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    Who are the call-ups coming up in June that are going to be studs that I should add now?

    Already snagged Trea Turner but missed out on Glasnow.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @James: Always depends on your league, bench depth, roster depth, etc. But yeah Turner is a good one, Glasnow is prob my favorite pitcher, if deeper benches I do think Giolitto could be up by July, AJ Reed is interesting and could be up by June, Orlando Arcia is playing great for my Brewers in AAA, those would be some of my favorites

  48. Steve Stevenson says:
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    In a weirdo weekly 10×10 H2H league that runs Tue.-Mon. and have a roster spot I can use to stream a 2-starter. W, L and QS count. My two start stream options are:

    Tillman – vNYY (SON $-2.4), vOak (-4.4)
    S. Wright – @CWS (-8.5), @NYY (-11.7)
    Cashner – vCol (5.5), vNYM (-4,9)
    Tomlin – vDet (5.9), vKC (6.7)
    A. Meyer – @Hou (-11.4), vBal (3.5)

    SON likes Tomlin and his 2 home starts the best, but I don’t really buy it. Wright has tough matchups (and SON hates them) but has been the best of the bunch so far, is always in games and is a QS machine on a good team. Tillman’s been coming along lately and has 2 home starts. Cash gets 2 in Petco but is unreliable at best and isn’t striking anyone out. Meyer’s a potential roofie but gets the K-prone ‘Stros. Talk me into one of these clowns.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Steve Stevenson: Wow, 10×10! Ugh yeah, not the strongest pickins. Can’t fault SoN for going Tomlin, but I’ll take Clown, I mean Chris, Tillman. I do like his added velo and throwing cutters more, although I did some BvP look-ins today and A-Rod owns him, so it’s a little risky

  49. Sal says:
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    JB, I think it’s time to sell high on Joe Ross. Who are some names you would target in a 14 team league?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Sal: Well it depends on for whom obviously, yes the ERA and WHIP are gonna go up, but I think the Ks will too. Conforto is prob too high, ummm, tough to answer I would look at one of the bottom 2 or 3 teams in ERA/WHIP and see what hitters they have

  50. Scott says:
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    Okay, so I’m bored. I’m going back to your other pitcher posts to look at the gifs. Robbie Ray’s follow-through is ok, better than Mananea’s by a little. I’d probably just attribute that to less girth. Then Aaron Sanchez’ follow through is amazing. Same with Joe Ross.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Scott: Haha appreciate ya looking back at those! Yeah both those righties have pretty nice mechanics. Ray definitely uses a lot of his body, but I think he can get better. I hope haha

  51. Adam says:
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    Show some respect for Zimmerman hes on fire ranked behind Carrasco whos missing 10 starts. I’ve always loved your rankings but common man in the #40’s???? Hes a top 20 arm at least guy has an elite offense behind him also. Dont hate b/c he burned you last year lol.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Adam: Well “he’s on fire” I don’t think is predicative of ROS terms. I see absolutely no way he’s a top-20 pitcher when the season is over. And I have no bias on him from last year! His K rate is at a career low, BABIP a career high, 92.3% LOB% is absurdly lucky, only given up 1 HR which is fluky, and his xFIP is at a career high thus far. There’s so much regression in underlying numbers that I have no confidence pushing him even close to the aces. Plus these are for Roto, where K rates are EXTREMELY important. In a Pts league, yes, Zimmermann goes up a good 10 spots, at least. But in a Roto, I’ll definitely take Carrasco and enjoy ace-like K numbers even with him missing 8-9 starts.

      • Adam says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Ok i shipped Zimmerman off in a trade.

        Zimmerman,Wade Davis and Matt Adams for Donaldson, Ervin Santana and Heaney

        Im in a 15 team 5×5 roto.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Adam: Even though Heaney is looking like he might miss the season, that is an absolute SLAM DUNK! Donaldson for some pieces?! Given in a 15er you need depth, but that’s a winner right there, nice work!

          • Adam says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Thanks for the help JB. Keep up the good work buddy!

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Adam: Will do, any time!

  52. greg says:
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    I’m going to assume by your ranking you are not worried about Rodon’s latest control issues?

    Glasgow or Gausman ROS. thanks

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @greg: Latest control issues? He has 14 K: 3 BB his last 2 starts! Not worried in the least. Gausman, but it prob would be Glasnow if he was called up right now.

  53. jal179 says:
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    Strategy question in a 10 teamer weekly h2h redraft with 5X5 + Hits + OPS + QS.3 add/drops per week.

    Very deep rosters for pitching.

    I’m getting smoked in Ws and QS with the current staff:
    Max, Thor, Carrasco (DL), Matz, Maeda, Rondon, Colombe, Betances, Chapman, Eickhoff, Corbin, Steven Wright, Colon, Snell (NA), ERod (DL), Boxberger (DL).

    I just dropped slumping Tyler White to stream Colon Sat vs the Pads.

    What are your thoughts on punting saves altogether in this format and moving my closers for some starters?

    I’m of the opinion that either you are all in on saves (ie 4 closers) or out with our format.

    Thoughts? What tier of starter to target with say Chapman?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @jal179: So it’s 7X6 if I’m reading this right? Oh yeah, definitely punting saves in a H2H, with SV 1 of 13 cats. I would shop Chapman starting in my top 25, maybe even 20. But I would wait until he’s back, and hopefully has a few 2 or 3 K saves to start up and sell while hot, I dunno how his value is right now perception wise

      • jal179 says:
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        yup 7 x 6. Rondon+ Hanley for an OF upgrade is what I have in mind or Rondon for a Shark type to start.

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @jal179: Yup I love those ideas!

  54. Steve says:
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    There’s been a lot of talk of dropping Corbin based on his early struggles. What do you think? You have him in the 30s… Think he figures it out or is he hiding something?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Steve: Well I had him higher, I dropped a bit in this iteration. He’s still only 26 (lost 1.5 yrs to TJ, so thats still youngish to me for a pitcher) and I think velo could come up a tick again. I think it will be a little better, but I am lowering expectations

  55. The Situation says:
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    @JB: No Fulmer? Very good fastball and slider, while change up seems to be developing… What’s your take and what does he need to do to move (onto and) up the list?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @The Situation: Nah, I just don’t know if he makes enough starts. Shane Greene is throwing again and only had a blister, plus they have Daniel Norris who they might want to give a rotation spot to first when he’s ready. I like Fullmer’s upside, but I think we’d need another injury or two before I put him in there and feel better about a long-term rotation spot.

  56. Alex says:
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    Is it too early to pick up Glasnow? I’d drop Ken Giles. I have Britton, Papelbon, and J. Wilson, so I’m good with saves and holds (if Giles ends up earning any).

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Alex: I don’t think so, but obviously depends a little on the league and bench depth. 12 teamer with bench spots? Sure

  57. joe says:
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    How are you feeling about Nola after a really good start to the season and back to back great starts against pretty good offenses? His rank seems low based on the numbers, but wasn’t sure you saw/know something that concerns you. From my perspective, wins don’t matter, just QS.

    My current rotation is Hamels, Cole, Maeda, Joe Ross, Nola, Velasquez, Shields, Porcello, and Manaea with Yu DLing it up. I’m holding Manaea for tonight to see how he pitches, but I want to speculate on Glasnow. This is a 12 team keeper league with 6 keepers based on round value and free agents count as really late picks. So teams speculate like crazy, but Glasnow is still there. I’m stuck between Shields, Porcello and Manaea. Does this being QS league give them the advantage over Manaea? Would you drop one of the 3 to speculate on Glasnow?

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @joe: I had a Nola comment above: “He’s faced 3 bad teams out of 5 games, given a lot of NL teams are bad, but he throws 90.0 MPH right now and had iffy K rates in the minors.

      Improvement possible? Sure. But going from low Minor League K rates and 7.88 K rate last year to 10 plus?! That’s not an improvement, that a completely different pitcher! And I dunno if I buy he’s taken such a gigantic leap until I see another 3-4 starts probably. Like, if he Ks 7 Giants, I’d be changing my tune.”

      @STL is indeed starting to change my tune haha. I get one more start Sunday, and maybe that’ll be my pitcher profile.

      Oh definitely, much rather Shields or Porcello for this season in QS over Manaea. I think I would drop Manaea for Glasnow, mainly bc I doubt you keep both and I think Glasnow could be a late-round keeper.

  58. Eric B says:
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    Whats up JB, still mulling roster moves from our discussion above. I think Ive decided to shelve moving a closer for now, all my guys are borderline anyway and subject to implosions so I think it’s best to keep all 4 for now.

    Despite the struggles of Corbin, do we agree Berrios is the 1st drop from my staff? And if so do you think my lineup could benefit from more power or more speed? Two most likely adds on the wire are Kris Davis(power) or Dannys Santana(speed) who’s playing everyday at CF since Buxton was sent down and doing decent. He has 4 steals and will soon have OF eligibility to go with his SS status, he doesn’t walk much but he’s hitting the ball better than last years disappointing showing.

    The only other move I could see is trying to get a back up bench bat for 1st base(dont have anyone behind Miggy). Mauer, Bour or a stash of AJ Reed are probably the best options. So dump Berrios for any of the above? Rosters below:

    ESPN 12 team HTH 5×5 with OBP and QS and 4 keepers per season

    C Molina
    1B Cabrera
    2B Daniel Murphy
    3B Seager
    SS A. Russell
    OF Stanton
    OF Springer
    OF Polanco
    UTIL OF Burns
    UTIL OF/DH Sano
    Bench 2B/SS Castro
    DL Pollock

    SP Salazar
    SP Corbin
    RP Kimbrel
    RP McGee
    P T. Walker
    P Odorizzi
    P C.Rodon
    P Gausman
    Bench SP Berrios
    Bench SP Kennedy
    Bench RP Vizcaino
    Bench RP Tolleson
    DL SP E-Rod

    • Eric B says:
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      @Eric B: Also meant to ask how good is your Brewers SS Arcia going to be? Better than Trea Turner? And what kinda ETA do you foresee for him?

      • JB Gilpin

        JB Gilpin says:
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        @Eric B: Yeah still Berrios right now for me. I think owning K Davis right now while hot and playing him most of the time during this hot streak makes the most sense, I like that move. I don’t think I’d worry about backup 1B from those options right now.

        I’m gonna stick with Turner, I think he’s up sooner and the Nats actually need production vs. the Brewers who can just let him coast in AAA

        • Eric B says:
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          Well I guess there’s no homersim in that reply… figured I could get it straight from a Brewers fan like yourself lol. Sooo how much do you love Joe Ross? Would you trade Addison Russell and Berrios, for say Joe Ross and Trea Turner if you were me?

          • Eric B says:
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            @Eric B: Seems he may want Vizcaino in that scenario as well….So Ross and Turner for Viz, Russell and Berrios? Am I giving up to much, I like it better with no Viz lol.

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Eric B: Hah nope! I’d never let my bias ruin comments! :)

              I still very much love Ross, I don’t think 14 K in 22 IP is enough of a sample for everyone going screaming to the hills about his K-rate, which was 8+ last year. I def like that trade for you.

              Yeahhhh I like it better with no Viz too, but him closing on THAT team… Ugh. Plus it opens up a roster spot and we keep running into guys you wanna add but outta room! I still like the 3 for 2

            • Eric B says:
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              @Eric B: Let me 1st apologize for all the questions before you can even answer lol. Have another deal on the table a closer either McGee or Viz for Parra straight up. So which deal do you like most and out of my 4 closers which one should I be looking to move first iyo? The Joe Ross deal is a little iffy tbh, the Parra deal I know I can do.

              • JB Gilpin

                JB Gilpin says:
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                @Eric B: No worries man, you know its all good! I think I might start lower and indeed do that Viz for Parra deal. Braves are just sooooooo bad

                • Eric B says:
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                  @JB Gilpin: lmao…dont I know it. Sucks being a die hard Bravos fan right now…cue the sad trombone.

                  • Eric B says:
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                    @Eric B: So know the guy will only do McGee for Parra, with no closers on the wire I think that might be too much for Parra alone, he offer Shark for Tolleson earlier but I declined. I dont need a 6th OF that bad imo, although I like Parra.

                    Also the guy I started talking Ross and Turner with isnt responding, he’s kinda difficult to do deals with, so that’s not surprising.

                    • JB Gilpin

                      JB Gilpin says:
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                      @Eric B: Hah yeah my bad, didn’t mean to pour salt in the wound haha. Yeah I like McGee too, agree just for Parra is a pass.

                      Def like trying to deal either Viz or Tolleson for the right deal tho!

  59. david says:
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    Hey JB,
    What are your thoughts on Ventura? He’s still ranked in the 40’s but should he be dropped in 12 team yahoo leagues? Those walks are adding up. Also, I’ve been reading that Snell could be up before May 10th and he’d be up for good. Seems like the time to stash him is now. Would you agree that he should be up in the next week or so? Thanks man!

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @david: Yeahhhh, he’s right on that fringe. In RCL format I would drop him, and have in another shallower league. I think since he’s only had one putrid start, he’ll stay 45ish-50ish for me a few more starts, since he obviously has the talent to bounce back in ROS terms. But in shallower leagues were you can play the hot hand, no issue dropping

  60. Eric B says:
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    Ok this may be a new record…we ran out of room twice lol. So heres what he has on his roster: Shark, A Gon, Duda, Parra, Herrera, Cole, Lester, Liriano. Only problem with a 2 for 1 is ERods likely getting activated within a week or so. Anyone you’d be willing to give up the edge in Saves for out of that group? He actuallly prefers Tolleson to McGee and has already offered Shark for him, but with no saves on the wire, I think I deserve more lol.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @Eric B: Haha noice! Ugh yeah tough to find a good trade. The other pitchers prob won’t work, I’d be fine getting A Gon for a closer but I dunno if he’d do that… Might be best to be in a holding pattern and see what other teams might want SV

      • Eric B says:
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        @JB Gilpin: Yeah nobody wants to trade with me lol. Since they voted to reduce roster sizes, theres guys on the wire which makes people more hesitant to trade. Speaking of which, Im trailing the most in SB’s sitting at 8th at 15 leader has 21. But could also use help in HRs(5th) and RS(5th) sitting 12 back in both categories. I think we decided Berrios was the 1st drop, Erod probably wont be back until next week, would you hold onto Berrios until Erod shows what hes got or drop Berrios now? On wire is K.Davis, Ozunna, Villar, K.Marte, E. Inciarte(should be activated this weekend).

        • JB Gilpin

          JB Gilpin says:
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          @Eric B: Boooooo, that’s no fun! Meh yeah 6 steals isn’t too huge though. K Davis hasn’t cooled yet, and if you get him this morning, you can get 2 games worth in the double header!

          • Eric B says:
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            @JB Gilpin: Well Davis went 0-9 lol, glad I held off on him. Was offered Melancon for MCGee and Gausman, countered Berrios and McGee. But I think he wants Gausman, would you trade Gausman straight up for Melancon? I might then be able to flip McGee for an arm to replace Gausman, maybe Shark?

            • JB Gilpin

              JB Gilpin says:
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              @Eric B: Ugh don’t I know…. Now that he’s cold I dropped him off several teams, but got a few homers! Sure I actually like the closer upgrade in the original trade to be honest. But yeah all-in-all, Gausman/McGee to get Melancon/Shark in a series of trades would be a huge win!

  61. ryan_horner says:
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    JB, quick trade question in a H2H points league. I was offered Harvey for Scherzer. I’m down on both guys, BUT I can keep Harvey as a 9th round pick for next year where Max would cost a 1st. Think either guy turns it around? Max is just serving up bombs left and right.

    • JB Gilpin

      JB Gilpin says:
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      @ryan_horner: Yeah last night was horrible for Max. I dunno, just really depends on if you’re a for-sure top 2 or 3 team and going for it, or if you wanna rebuild. Even if Harvey kinda struggles through this season, there’s nothing panicking making me think he wouldn’t be a steal in the 9th in H2H next year… I’m kinda leaning taking it either way though, that’s a great price for a good pitcher in H2H

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