We’re close to a month into the season and I don’t think I’ve panicked too much with these rankings. One trend I recently noticed was how many veterans are filling up the stat sheet. Guys like Justin Turner, Josh Donaldson, and Kris Bryant are turning back the clocks to their prime, while shiny new toys like Cavan Biggio and Alec Bohm have struggled out of the gate. There’s no real analysis there, it’s just a quick observation. On the injury front we had Jean Segura head to the IL with a quad strain, and my former bae, Ke’Bryan Hayes reaggravated his wrist injury. Sadly, both fell off of this list. I’m very concerned about Hayes for this year. Even after returning to the lineup, wrist injuries tend to sap power. Let’s get to the list and then we’ll talk about a couple of movers.
| Rank | Player | Position | Team | +/- |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jose Ramirez | 3B | Indians | – |
| 2 | Manny Machado | 3B | Padres | – |
| 3 | Rafael Devers | 3B | Red Sox | +1 |
| 4 | Alex Bregman | 3B | Astros | +2 |
| 5 | Nolan Arenado | 3B | Cardinals | -2 |
| 6 | Anthony Rendon | 3B | Angels | +2 |
| 7 | DJ LeMahieu | 1B/2B/3B | Yankees | -2 |
| 8 | Max Muncy | 1B/2B/3B | Dodgers | +1 |
| 9 | Eugenio Suarez | 3B/SS | Reds | -2 |
| 10 | Kris Bryant | 3B/OF | Cubs | +7 |
| 11 | Yoan Moncada | 3B | White Sox | +1 |
| 12 | Justin Turner | 3B | Dodgers | +7 |
| 13 | Tommy Edman | 3B/SS/OF | Cardinals | – |
| 14 | Matt Chapman | 3B | Athletics | -3 |
| 15 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | Twins | +5 |
| 16 | J.D. Davis | 3B/OF | Mets | NR |
| 17 | Mike Moustakas | 1B/2B/3B | Reds | -7 |
| 18 | Austin Riley | 3B | Braves | NR |
| 19 | Gio Urshela | 3B | Yankees | -5 |
| 20 | Eduardo Escobar | 3B/2B | Diamondbacks | +1 |
| 21 | Alec Bohm | 3B | Phillies | -6 |
| 22 | Cavan Biggio | 2B/3B/OF | Blue Jays | -6 |
| 23 | Ryan McMahon | 1B/2B/3B | Rockies | -5 |
| 24 | Joey Wendle | 3B/2B/SS | Rays | NR |
| 25 | Luis Urias | 3B/2B/SS | Brewers | NR |
Up at the top, I was very, very tempted to swap Manny Machado and Jose Ramirez. Machado is raking and in a much better lineup which gives him the advantage in terms of counting stats for the rest of the season. While currently, Machado has one more steal than Ramirez, I think Ramirez picks up the pace and his 30+ stolen bases will put him over the top as being the most valuable player at the hot corner.
During draft season, there was a giant glob of third basemen from Machado all the way down to Eugenio Suarez that I viewed as somewhat equal. At this point, I think that glob has split in two, with the cream rising to the top – Machado, Rafael Devers, and Alex Bregman. On the other hand, Nolan Arenado, Anthony Rendon, DJ LeMahieu, and Eugenio Suarez have had some struggles. For what it’s worth, I think the first two of those, Arenado and Rendon, will be fine. With LeMahieu I think we’re seeing some significant power regression from last year, but his batting average should bounce back.
The one I’m legitimately concerned about is Suarez. The Reds’ slugger started selling out for power in 2019. While the strikeout rate spiked, so did the power and it was more of the same in 2020, except we saw what happens when you combine a 30% strikeout rate with a poor BABIP. Reds’ head coach David Bell is putting the blame on Suarez switching positions to shortstop, but the plate discipline has been an issue for a lot longer. The power will likely come, but I wouldn’t expect a return to the .260+ batting average that we saw in the past.
I finally gave Kris Bryant some love and of course, he popped up as DTD with a right bicep injury. There’s not a lot of news about the severity of the injury, so I’m just going to give him his love and you guys can razz me later. Bryant has looked healthy in the early going and his rate stats are directly in line with his 2019 numbers. You know, the year he popped 31 homers with a .282/.382/.521 triple slash. If the bicep injury is minor, I think Bryant returns similar numbers, but he’s been plagued by these soft tissue injuries and we know what the bad years look like.
In the preseason there was talk of getting Justin Turner some more days off, so of course, that means he had a monster April. I feel like the industry as a whole always forgets just how good a healthy Turner is. There is something to be said about his increased strikeout rate, but he’s hitting the ball hard and as long as he’s healthy, I’d put him in a “Josh Donaldson-esque” tier.
I got a little blowback during draft season for being low on Matt Chapman. My main concern was that coming off the major hip surgery that he’d require some time to get up to speed. And so far, that’s been the case. He looks good in the field but has yet to shake off the rust at the plate. The good news is that, barring an aggravation, he should hit his stride with the warmer weather.
I bumped J.D. Davis back up the list, but there’s still some concern with the Mets’ slugger. His defense at third is just so bad. How bad is it Richardo? I’m glad you asked. Last year, Davis finished with the worst OAA of any qualified third basemen and he currently has piled up three errors – that doesn’t seem terrible – in just 38 innings played at the hot corner. All of this could mean fewer plate appearances for Davis.
I don’t know how, but apparently, I didn’t have Austin Riley on the last list, and for that, I apologize. Riley’s counting stats haven’t quite caught up, but he’s walking at a career-best rate and has maintained his lowered strikeout rate from last year.
Finally, let’s talk about Alec Bohm, Cavan Biggio, and Ryan McMahon. I’ll start with McMahon, who has shown up with the power in a big way, but he’s walked just 3 times this year. Now, part of it is McMahon being aggressive at the dish, but I’m just not sure if it’s sustainable. Biggio has just been so meh. He’s seemingly been content to just take pitches until he either walks or strikes out. That fact is also confirmed by his three extra-base hits on the year. Finally, Bohm may just be experiencing a little sophomore adjustment from pitchers and we’ll have to see if he can take a step in the right direction moving forward.
