Tonight is my favorite kind of night on Draft.com. The small rosters usually mean you’re choosing between great hitter A and great hitter B. Some tough match-ups equals slimmer than usual pickin’s for this slate. That’s going to help you gain an edge by doing your homework and finding advantageous spots for players like Justin Bour and Mike Foltynewicz. So sharpen up your pencil, and maybe stop doodling inappropriately.

New to Draft.com? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Sat 8/2
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | OAK

There’s no greater compliment I can give a player than I wish I owned him in every league.  Okay, maybe a higher compliment is I wish he’d married my mom and been my dad, but then he’d be old and I wouldn’t be able to own him in every league, unless he married her when I was, like, 20 and he was three years old, but then I’d sorta be like his dad, but I would have to call him dad and that would be confusing, what would I call him, “Lil’ Dad?”  “Half Pops?”  “Daddy Little Jeans?”  And if Daddy Little Jeans were my dad and I owned him in fantasy and he had a bad game, then dinner would be awkward.  “Hey, Daddy Little Jeans, you can’t get a hit off a Marlins pitcher?  You’re useless, and my mom wants a divorce!”  So, in conclusion, it’s best if I say I want to own a player vs. have him be my dad.  Seriously, though, Bryce Harper (2-for-4, 2 runs, 3 RBIs with his 8th homer, hitting .315) could be finally putting up that 45/15/.320 season we’ve all been dreaming about, and headed for a $750 million pay day with the Yanks (after holding out for three months into the season).

Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

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Each of the last two weeks, I’ve looked at pitchers who changed something in their repertoire. The first change I looked at was my opinion of starters – Take that for data! – before that exact trio started generating substantial buzz (Corbin, Bundy, Lucchesi). I then navigated to velocity changes on two arms I was particularly intrigued by (Berrios, Castillo). Now to complete the trinity, I wanted to look at what I consider “hipster pitchers.”

Said in layman’s terms – are hipsters layman now? – these arms are following the breaking-ball trend that has taken over the game, buoyed by the philosophy that your best pitch should be thrown more than the past would suggest. Breaking balls are the most successful pitch at inducing whiffs for the majority of pitchers, that’s why the majority of starters, when broken down by pitch usage and count, will tend to utilize breaking balls with two strikes (duh!). They’re also the most fun to gif up – just ask one of the most popular baseball accounts on Twitter, @PitchingNinja.

Speaking of pitchers, if you like the sound of my voice, which you can judge for yourself weekly on the Razzball Prospect Podcast I co-host with Ralph, I’m doing also doing a weekly “Pitcher Thoughts” podcast. It’s available on the Apple Podcast app, Stitcher, Spotify, and Soundcloud. Shameless plug!

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The stolen base department is always a tough sledding affair.  It is filled with guessing and presumptuous displays of picking the right guy in the right situation.  Steals are very hard to come by on a regular basis currently so the steals are a “trending downward” property. So hitting on one SAGNOF flyer for the week or via the waiver wire for immediate returns is just a hard thing to predict.  At best, the wire fellas will net you one steal a week, and that is being generous.  So looking at the trends “against teams, by teams that steal” is the best model for the stolen base business. Upcoming matchups for the week are the way to go if you wanna guess, but guess with style and maybe a better idea of who is stealing on who and how often.  Taking not only advantage of a catcher skill set but a team skill set for their propensity to give of the thievery.  So here is the SAGNOF report for this week with a scheduler forecaster for the 10-most frequent base stealing teams and their schedule for the week…

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It can be tricky playing fantasy baseball and having to play off clues and subtle moves MLB teams make for their star-studded young players. When Eugenio Suarez fractured his thumb earlier this week the fantasy community came far and wide with their takes on if the Cincinnati Reds would call up the second overall pick from 2016 Nick Senzel. Senzel could be up this weekend or the end of the month, and sadly some are even saying maybe not until June. Some have said Suarez’s injury wont change anything for the Reds and that they can play out the rest of the season without him (even if his bat is major league ready). This still is all speculation and if you’re in a keeper league, I hope you grabbed him immediately after Suarez went down. When situations like this occur just a few times a year, you can’t wait for the beat writers or reporters to say what they are expecting to happen, you have to risk wasting that waiver wire pick before the actual word gets out. To succeed in fantasy baseball and in all keeper/dynasty leagues, speculation is all you should need to make a move…

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Blake Snell has a real opportunity tonight to body-slam the battered Texas Rangers. Missing a couple of key components in the offense, the Rangers have managed a measly .674 OPS as a team. In addition to the injuries, they offer a huge strikeout potential, as they ranked 4th in the entire MLB in Ks. Snell has always been somewhat of an enigma but he has the stuff to dominate a lineup, as he proved his last time out (6IP 1ER 10Ks). Lastly, the game is being played indoors and offers no chance of a PPD, when it seems every game is being postponed these days. Let’s take a look at the rest of the picks…

New to Draft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!  

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Just wanna put it out there that Al Gore did a better job of inventing the internet than he did at global warming.  All these postponements is a real shitshow…snow.  The way we’re going there’s going to be back-to-back tripleheaders in August for some teams with the ceremonial first pitch thrown out by Joel Youngblood.  Here was me trying to field a full fantasy team the last few days:  I’m going to hold onto Matt Davidson through his postponed games, at least I have Freddie Freeman, and now the Braves are rained out, well, I have Miguel Andujar in a doubleheader, and…that’s been canceled, guess I can grab whomever is starting for the Royals vs. Ohtani and that game has been called.  Hmm, down to one game on Sunday — Rays vs. Phils.  C’mon, Kiermaier–And he’s out after one inning.  FMFBBL.  Any hoo!  Yesterday, Starling Marte went 5-for-5, 4 runs and his 3rd homer, hitting .305.  If you’re facing him, urine trouble, if you’re a PEDs tester, that is.  By the way, I heard an interesting tidbit on a podcast the other day.  If you wipe a baby diaper filled with pee on your face, you will stay forever young.  Of course, the advice came from a prisoner serving 25 years to life in San Quentin, so there might be side effects.  Coming into this game, Marte was hitting .241, and he raised his average more than sixty points, which shows you how young the season is still.  Maybe the season wiped baby urine on itself.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

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Boy, this Ohtani is all anybody’s ever talking about. I’m so sick and tired of hearing about how brilliant that Ohtani is. I was so tempted to put Shohei Ohtani on this list. So tempted! Unfortunately he only has 30 at-bats compared to the league leader, his teammate, Albert Pujols’s 67. That’s too small of a sample size for me to overreact and 3-4 batting games per week can leave you in a hole. It is fun to see that he has a 0% soft contact rate though. But that Ohtani is some kind of something, huh?

This winter weather is messing with a lot of players. At the bottom of my top 100 you’ll see a list of hitters who shoulda, coulda, woulda been in the top 100 if they were healthy. I think most of them will return and find themselves back on the top 100 list, but for now, due to their missed games and health uncertainty — they get their own list.

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Technically this will be Week 4 if you count the first Thursday through Sunday games, but I refuse to do that! That’s only half a week, my friend. We don’t half-ass anything around here, especially weeks. We go hard. YOU go hard. That’s why you’re here. You’re looking to get the weekly streaming leg up on your competition so you can punch them in their proverbial genitals. Don’t actually punch your competition in the genitals though, that ain’t right. Unless they talk smack about yo’ momma, then it’s ok.

The streaming game is one not for the faint of heart since it can go awry even in the best of situations, but part of the long game is casting your lot with a sound process and putting yourself in the best position to succeed. That said, out of the weekly bucket of mediocrity are some surprisingly non barf-inducing possibilities. I consider the options in Tier 4, which ended up rather thick and chunky (not unlike my soup), to be largely streamable in deeper mixed leagues. Let’s have a look at some of the more interesting double dippers this week…

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Teoscar Hernandez (10-15% FAAB Budget) is a player that screams fantasy upside. Teoscar Hernandez is a coveted combination of power and speed that does not come along on the waiver wire often. Past seasons of 20-30 steals in the minors with a double-digit home run ceiling are tools to look towards when planning to bid some FAAB budget this week. Teoscar is also a Statcast darling who pops up on the top of the 2017 Brls/PA leaderboards surrounded by players like Nelson Cruz, Khris Davis, and teammate Justin Smoak. The approach could still improve, but the potential for gaudy fantasy stats is evident with this call-up. Hernandez could have made the opening day lineup in a desolate Blue Jays outfield. The team opted to give Randal Grichuk a chance to fulfill his trade. However, faith in the former Cardinal is fleeting. Hernandez could be a player that sticks on fantasy rosters all season providing double-digit steals and home runs with the potential to surpass 20 in both categories.

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They call Draft fantasy for the people and why not? It’s easy as Sunday morning. Sign up at Draft.com, do a quick snake draft of 3, 4, 6 or 10 players, and get a piece of the payouts.  Here at Razzball we recommend using Value Based Drafting (VBD) to make the most of your roster.  Using Rudy’s tools you can easily sort values and take the projected points for the final player drafted at each position (P, IF, OF) and subtracting from all the players at that position, then re-ranking based on VBD.  In other words: Razzball will give you the inside knowledge you need to dominate your DFS opponents.

There are a number of great pitchers today, but no better than Chris Sale.  He’s in top form to start the season and his numbers against the Orioles with Boston are vintage 2000 Pedro Martinez: 3-0, 2.05 ERA, .73 WHIP, 33 strikeouts in 22 Innings.  Many will be on the Ohtani train, and why not?  Close to perfect games pitching, hitting homers off Kluber, he’s incredible.  You’ve got Kershaw in a home start where he’s nails on any given day.  You won’t be hurt with Syndergaard either, Thor is mighty, but he’s slightly more risky as he is coming off injury last year.  Despite stiff competition Chris Sale is the number one guy today and will give you an edge.  If you are playing a three person draft you can probably wait to draft Sale with the last pick and still get the best match-up of the day.  In larger drafts you can still grab Sale later than Ohtani and Kershaw potentially.  Here are a few more early, middle, and late picks to use:

New to Draft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care!  

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It is no secret, my admiration for San Diego Padres GM A.J. Preller. While many remember the early win now moves in his tenure, it is the scouting and development of young talent that has really caught my eye. During his time in the Rangers organization, under the direction of former fraternity brother Jon Daniels, Preller was tasked with International Scouting. Something the Rangers did pretty well over that period. The same eye for talent on the international market has proven fruitful for the Padres, securing the services of several top signees over the last few periods, including Michel Baez, Adrian Morejon, Gabriel Arias, Jeisson Rosario, and Tirso Ornelas. Some of his recent trades have helped build even greater depth, adding top prospect Fernando Tatis Jr. for James Shields, as well as Logan Allen, Anderson Espinoza, Chris Paddack, Josh Naylor, and Esteury Ruiz in a collection of other trades. All this, and we haven’t even touched on some of the recent drafts. In just the last two seasons the Padres have added, MacKenzie Gore, Cal Quantrill, Joey Lucchesi, Eric Lauer, Hudson Potts, Luis Campusano, and Mason Thompson. Needless to say I have my work cut out for me in this post. In case you’re not caught up on the Prospect Pod, Lance and I discussed this system on the latest episode. You can listen and read! Shameless Plug! Onto the San Diego Padres Top Prospects.

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