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“Count’s 2-1, and Jack Flaherty is leaning in…and, would you look at that, that is interesting…Willson Contreras is calling for an 88 MPH fastball down the middle.” I kid! Jack Flaherty (7 IP, 0 ER, 5 baserunners, 10 Ks, ERA at 5.24) looked great! After the first inning. Was a bit wonky at the start. At one point, he went from a 75 MPH curve to a 95 MPH elevated fastball to a 84.5 MPH slider to a 79.5 MPH knuckle curve on four straight batters, all resulting in strikeouts. All he needed for motivation was to prove his own catcher sucked. “But how,” Jack Flaherty wondered in his most sincere of voices, “Could a pitcher look good while making his catcher look bad?” Flaherty still desperately needs command from pitch 1 to 100 while going 95 on the fastball, but last night was a step in the right direction. Speaking of directions, the Cards all sucked together, and now they’re all fantastic together. The Cards’ way, I suppose. Nolan Arenado (2-for-3, 4 RBIs and his 7th homer, and 4th homer in four games) is going off, and I had a reason to Sell Low written down that was so eloquent. It’s right over by this open window–NOOOO!!! Torenado! Also, in this game, Andrew Knizner (1-for-1, 2 runs, 4 RBIs) hit his 3rd homer, and 2nd in as many games. This homer was vs. a position player, but there ain’t no asterisks in my fantasy league. Next, Tommy Edman (4-for-5, 4 runs, 2 RBIs) hit his 6th homer, as he heard the footsteps of people going to waivers to drop him. Finally, Nolan Gorman (3-for-5, 2 runs, 5 RBIs) hit his 10th homer, as the house of Cards begins to rise again. Hopefully, Oli Marmol isn’t inspired to give one of his motivational speeches again like, “Tyler O’Neill and Willson Contreras, you guys suck and can’t field your positions or run and I hate all of you.” Anyway, here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Mon 8/4
ARI | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | ATH | CHW | OAK | SEA | WSH

Now we’ve entered the meaningful stats era and the Twins are still in first place. Who wants to go to the World Series with me? I kid, I kid. Like I could afford the parking for the World Series. Also, the entire AL East has a better record than the Twins. [sigh]

Twins superstar Joe Ryan sits at SP2 on the Razzball Player Rater, propelled largely by his 6 Wins in 8 Games started, which feels a lot like 2022 Tony Gonsolin. Clayton Kershaw and Joe Ryan are neck and neck in terms of fantasy value — same Win contribution, same K contribution, and nearly the same ERA. These are all good things.

And [ahem] Eduardo Rodriguez is SP5 on the year. Nathan Eovaldi is SP10. Justin Steele is SP8. Whoever Tyler Wells is, is SP12. Wells was a reliever in 2021 who became a starter in 2022 and nearly halved his K rate.

This reminds me of when Alec Mills spent significant time in the Top 10 Starters on the Player Rater in 2020. The guy had a curveball that you or I could throw faster than, and I haven’t thrown a pitch in 23 years. The guy even notched a no-no. But by the end of the year, batters caught up to his Eephus pitches and he finished well outside of usable starters. A couple years have passed and the guy’s not even in Major League Baseball anymore.

This is the power of small sample sizes: they make outliers look normal. Justin Steele’s ERA is 2.3 points lower than his xFIP. Tyler Wells is marginally better, with about a 1.8 point difference. Joe Ryan? He’s pretty good. But at his current Win luck, he’ll finish the season with 24 Wins. It just doesn’t work that way anymore.

A couple balls get by a defender here, a couple pitches called balls instead of strikes there, and these guys go from the tops of the charts to unrosterable. Let’s see if we can make any sense of who’s for real, and who’s just noise.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Before we take a dive into our weekly Razzball Commenter Leagues numbers and standings (we are still working through issues with FanTrax to get Master Standings updated), I want to take a little aside.  I want to chat about K/9 and its importance in the long game of the season.  Since we’re all capped at […]

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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First off, we have to wish our five female readers a very Happy Mother’s Day. I started a petition for next year’s Mother’s Day, where MLB puts a nipple on each base, and, when runner steps on it, it lactates. I think after I petitioned MLB last year to have hairy bean bags on the end of bats for Father’s Day, they’ve muted me somehow, so if you could boost this, I’d appreciate it. One guy who’s obviously a momma’s boy is Mitch Keller (7 IP, 0 ER, 4 hits, zero walks, 13 Ks, ERA at 2.38, 70 strikes out of 93 pitches). This comes after a 4-hit shoutout, which comes after four years of near-5 ERA pitching, which comes after being a highly touted prospect, which comes after emerging from his mother’s womb, because yesterday was all about moms! His peripherals are all saying everything Mitch Keller is doing is really happening vs. some kinda mirage that will evaporate when his luck runs out. The most incredible part of Mitch Keller’s star mitzvah is that he’s doing this prior to his trade to the Yankees for Albert Abreu and cash considerations. Oh, you know it’s coming, Keller high water. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Happy Mother’s Day to all the moms, mas, mothers, mommies, grandmas, step-moms, mothers-in-law, and other assorted mother-figures out there in the world today. If you’re “mom” to someone, no matter the details, then you’re a pretty damn special person and deserve to be celebrated today. An especially Happy Mother’s Day to the moms in my […]

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The early season waiver wire is starting to dry up with hot starts snatched up and no more James Outman or Josh Lowe breakouts there for the finding. Or are they? For the discerning fantasy owner there is opportunity everywhere. While those offseason breakout lists were good fun, maybe we can find 20 homers or 40 steals sitting there for the taking in mid-May. I cannot promise a championship, but there are a few breakout candidates that deserve a second look. This week, our hitter profiles search for talent that you will wish you had before the rest of your league wises up for the rest of the 2023 season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Graduated from Stash List Volume 2: The First Strand: Matt Mervis, Brandon Pfaadt, Gavin Stone, Christopher Morel. Just a refresher or if it’s your first season with us: Players like Jordan Walker and Taj Bradley are ineligible for the stash list because anyone who has already been promoted in-season is ineligible. Guys like Christophper Morel […]

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Welcome back to another edition of Top Dynasty Keepers. This week we are going to focus on rookie pitcher Bryce Miller of Seattle and Josh Jung, a young third baseman for the Rangers.

Both players are currently trending up in ESPN leagues, as Miller is now rostered in 40 percent of leagues, an increase of 31% over the last week. Meanwhile, Jung has seen a 9.2% jump in ESPN leagues he is rostered in and now sits at 31.9%.

Texans Making Their Mark

Miller, who is from Mount Pleasant, Texas, was drafted in the 38th round out of high school. Wisely, he decided to not sign with Miami and instead attended Blinn Junior College for a year before heading to Texas A&M.

His first season with the Aggies was spent pitching out of the bullpen and he made eight appearances out of the bullpen in 2020 before COVID ended the college season. In 2021 he appeared in 13 games and made 10 starts, striking out 70 hitters in 56.2 innings of work.

Miller battled control problems while at Texas A&M, walking 4.6 batters per nine innings and 5.9 per nine innings his last season on campus. However, the Mariners liked what they saw from Miller and drafted him in the fourth round of the 2021 June draft.

Jung, who hails from San Antonio, ventured to Lubbock after high school to attend Texas Tech where he starred for the Red Raiders. During his three-year career, he slashed .348/.455/.577, leading the Rangers to draft him with the eighth overall pick in the 2019 draft and giving him a $4.4 million signing bonus.

Jung would have likely been with Texas in 2021 but suffered a stress fracture in his left foot and then went through COVID protocols, leaving him to finish his year in the minors. He would have likely been the starting third baseman on Opening Day last year but suffered a torn labrum in his left shoulder while lifting weights in February, thus delaying his debut with Texas to late in the season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?