The 4th of July is upon us, and I hope you are all enjoying quality time with family and friends. As the calendar hits July, let’s take a look at some middle infielders whose fantasy value is exploding with value or fizzling out as we approach the All-Star break:
Isaac Paredes – Rays: Overall has been a pleasant surprise this season, slashing 39/13/51/.261/.368 entering play Sunday. On the surface, this looks great, and as it stands, Paredes ranks among the biggest value gainers in 2023. However, as we take a look under the hood, Paredes has a .217 xBA, a 28.6 % HardHit% that ranks in the bottom 7% of the league and has benefitted from the extra traffic on the Rays basepaths, leading to an artificially pumped-up RBI total on the year. Essentially, don’t be surprised if Isaac Paredes’ fantasy value fizzles out in the second half of the season as Paredes expected stats catch up to him. Adding insult to injury, Paredes is dealing with left rib discomfort, which is the type of injury that tends to linger.
Ketel Marte – Diamondbacks: Marte, another player relegated to a +200 ADP in drafts this year, has rebounded significantly from his subpar past few seasons, batting 61/15/44/.289/.369/6, and one of the catalysts for the surprising Arizona Diamondbacks. Ketel Marte is back to hitting the ball all over the park with authority, striking out 15.7% of the time, and walking at a healthy 10.2% clip. The 2023 version of Ketel is legit, and I’ll drink to him sustaining his tremendous first half through the rest of the year.
Jonathan India – Reds: Rebounded from his injury-plagued 2022, earning a 61/11/45/.256/.346/12 line. As the Reds have called up Matt McLain, Elly De La Cruz, and welcome a breakout season from Spencer Steer, and have Joey Votto returning from the IL, the Reds all of a sudden look like the Big Red Machine, putting up crooked numbers and look to establish themselves at the forefront of the NL Central race. The good news is Jonathan India’s stats look similar to a few years ago, when he won the NL Rookie of the Year award, and the favorable home park and lineup will allow India to accrue more counting stats in the second half.
Marcus Semien – Rangers: Adjusting to life in Texas, as he’s rocking a 67/11/56/.287/.349/8 line, setting the table for a dangerous Rangers lineup. Good news: Semien has a career-best strikeout rate, and all of his numbers look better at this point than they did last year. If you recall, Semien had an awful first couple months of 2022, but still ended up with a 101/26/.83/248/.304/25 line. Similar to the Reds, the Rangers lineup is a great place to add extra counting stats, and I expect no dramatic drop-off from Semien in the second half.
Geraldo Perdomo – Diamondbacks: Batting 37/5/33/.285/.388/9, and that’s the good news:
Take a look at all those 1 percenters…oofa…His xBA is .208, so his .285 average, along with 5 homers and 9 stolen bases is most certainly a mirage. As the Arizona Diamondbacks look to be buyers at the deadline, middle infield looks to be a place to upgrade as Perdomo looks to bust in the second half and Josh Rojas has been optioned to the Minors.
Ezequiel Duran – Rangers: Looks to be sustaining his early-season breakout, batting 35/12/34/.314/.354/4. While this all seems legit, one thing that stands out to me, in particular, is that Duran seems to not be fooled by breaking pitches like he did last year. Duran is a still-developing player at 24 years old, and we’d like to see him walk more, but I’ll be keeping a close eye on him in the second half to see if he keeps making adjustments. Here’s another guy potentially on Grey’s 2024 sleeper list. Another ill-advised move by Yanks GM Brian Cashman.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. – Marlins: Back from the IL this week only to exit play Sunday with a sore oblique. Jazz has only had 164 at-bats this season, and has been dealing with various injuries, so I’m willing to bet that he can improve on his 30.6% K rate. Unfortunately, the nature of Chisholm’s injuries tend to linger, so 2023 may be a lost season for him and hopefully we can get a draft day discount on him next year.
Brandon Lowe – Rays: Expected back from the IL on Tuesday. His batting average and strikeouts have suffered and it’s likely his back and leg injuries have thrown his mechanics all out of whack. Lowe’s been notoriously streaky throughout his career, and like Jazz, may just chalk 2023 up to being a lost year, and hope he’s all healthy in 2024.
Ezequiel Tovar – Rockies: Enjoyed a hot June and all of a sudden his season-long stats look respectable at 40/8/40/.270/.305/4. The underlying numbers look shaky and questionable. Although batting in Coors in the summer used to be one of the best places to hit, the Rockies supporting cast isn’t what it used to be. Tovar has an inflated K% (26.2%), low BB% (4.4%), and overall not hitting the ball with authority, often overmatched by breaking pitches, so unless he totally overhauls his approach, so I’m skeptical of him returning significant value in the second half. Tovar is only 21 and far from a finished product, particularly in keeper/dynasty formats.
Have a great week and happy 4th!!
