The Numbers Game: Lefty Mashers

March 12, 2015 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 50 Comments

Greetings Razzball nation, and welcome to another edition of The Numbers Game. Suffering through a long week at work? Looking for a break? Come along with me on a trip to a little town called Splitsville (disclaimer: not a real place). I guarantee you that we’ll have a delightful time there (satisfaction not guaranteed). At the very least, I have a lukewarm inclination that this post will help to pass the time during your afternoon trip to the can (sure, why not). I’ll take it!

Before we go any further, allow me to eliminate any confusion that the title of this post may have created for some of you. Rather than specifically highlighting left-handed sluggers, we’re looking to identify the MLB hitters who mash left-handed pitching. For those of you who play in leagues that feature daily lineup changes, this post should prove to be relevant for you. For those of you who don’t participate in such a league, sign up for an RCL today!

Now that you’re all signed up and ready to go, let’s get back to the task at hand. Here are the search criteria that were used for this exercise:

2013-2014 MLB seasons

Split vs LHP only

Minimum 150 PA

ISO of at least .200

OPS of at least .800

Just like the majority of the posts in this series, the thought process behind these search requirements is simple: include multiple seasons to reduce the impact of a small sample size while establishing minimum ISO and OPS marks that represent above average production in those categories. I used OPS as a criterion (instead of wOBA) to represent the ability to reach base without compromising the power requirements in any way.

To provide context, here are the MLB averages for hitters in certain key categories during the 2013 and 2014 seasons:

Season	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2013	7.90%	19.90%	0.4	0.253	0.318	0.396	0.714	0.143	0.297
2014	7.60%	20.40%	0.37	0.251	0.314	0.386	0.7	0.135	0.299

Since there were 50 players who met the search criteria for this exercise, I split the results up into two tables. Table #1 features the players who produced a .240+ ISO against left-handed pitching across the ’13-’14 seasons, and can be seen here (sorted by ISO):

Name	Team	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
Josh Donaldson	OAK	383	12.30%	13.10%	0.94	0.307	0.397	0.629	1.026	0.322	0.296
Jose Abreu	CWS	158	12.00%	21.50%	0.56	0.353	0.437	0.662	1.098	0.309	0.409
Justin Upton	ATL	303	18.20%	25.70%	0.71	0.276	0.407	0.581	0.989	0.305	0.318
Giancarlo Stanton	MIA	261	17.20%	18.00%	0.96	0.31	0.429	0.611	1.04	0.301	0.333
Mark Trumbo	– – –	266	8.60%	24.80%	0.35	0.26	0.327	0.554	0.881	0.293	0.289
Miguel Cabrera	DET	340	14.10%	16.20%	0.87	0.332	0.424	0.622	1.046	0.29	0.35
Jose Bautista	TOR	250	15.20%	12.40%	1.23	0.303	0.412	0.591	1.003	0.288	0.284
Steve Pearce	BAL	199	11.60%	13.10%	0.88	0.301	0.392	0.584	0.976	0.283	0.301
Khris Davis	MIL	186	5.40%	25.30%	0.21	0.254	0.306	0.533	0.839	0.278	0.274
Troy Tulowitzki	COL	231	16.00%	12.10%	1.32	0.351	0.463	0.628	1.091	0.277	0.356
Aramis Ramirez	MIL	197	7.10%	17.30%	0.41	0.315	0.376	0.59	0.966	0.275	0.331
Hanley Ramirez	LAD	215	13.00%	17.70%	0.74	0.312	0.405	0.586	0.991	0.274	0.343
Matt Wieters	BAL	200	6.00%	23.00%	0.26	0.277	0.315	0.549	0.864	0.272	0.295
Wilin Rosario	COL	245	4.90%	15.50%	0.32	0.32	0.351	0.589	0.94	0.268	0.328
Scott Van Slyke	LAD	206	13.60%	24.30%	0.56	0.285	0.388	0.552	0.941	0.267	0.333
Paul Goldschmidt	ARI	269	15.60%	16.00%	0.98	0.333	0.434	0.599	1.034	0.266	0.357
John Mayberry	– – –	190	10.00%	14.20%	0.7	0.241	0.316	0.506	0.822	0.265	0.231
Carlos Gomez	MIL	282	7.80%	18.10%	0.43	0.287	0.362	0.55	0.912	0.263	0.31
Evan Gattis	ATL	177	5.10%	20.90%	0.24	0.295	0.328	0.548	0.876	0.253	0.322
Andrew McCutchen	PIT	241	14.50%	11.60%	1.25	0.335	0.436	0.586	1.022	0.251	0.349
Ryan Braun	MIL	232	6.00%	17.20%	0.35	0.31	0.349	0.556	0.905	0.245	0.339
Chris Carter	HOU	335	13.40%	34.90%	0.38	0.238	0.34	0.483	0.823	0.245	0.32
Michael Cuddyer	COL	197	11.70%	17.30%	0.68	0.316	0.396	0.557	0.953	0.241	0.356
Jeff Baker	– – –	253	9.50%	23.30%	0.41	0.317	0.383	0.558	0.941	0.241	0.378

Only 11 players produced a .240+ ISO against MLB pitching in 2013, while just 13 players managed that feat in 2014, so we’ll call these players the elite lefty mashers. Twenty-four players in all met the criteria for this first list. Some thoughts and observations on these qualifiers:

• Not too many surprises near the top of the list. Donaldson, Abreu, Upton, Stanton, Trumbo, Cabrera, and Bautista are some of the most feared sluggers in the game, and each player hits from the right side. No reason why they shouldn’t continue to pummel left-handed pitching going forward.

• Pearce continues to appear on these lists. Very impressive numbers last season, but can he sustain that production in a full time role in his age 32 season?

• Davis, Van Slyke, Mayberry, and Baker look to be the true platoon specialists who qualified here. Davis and Van Slyke are fairly competent against right-handed pitching as well, while Mayberry and Baker can’t hit RHPs a lick. These are some players to keep in mind when in the lineup against LHPs on short schedule days in daily formats.

Table #2 features the players who produced an ISO between .200 and .239 against left-handed pitching across the ’13-’14 seasons. Those twenty-six qualifiers can be found here:

Name	Team	PA	BB%	K%	BB/K	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
Nolan Arenado	COL	275	7.60%	10.20%	0.75	0.304	0.361	0.543	0.904	0.239	0.3
J.D. Martinez	– – –	228	7.00%	26.30%	0.27	0.271	0.32	0.51	0.83	0.238	0.326
Justin Ruggiano	– – –	240	7.90%	22.50%	0.35	0.27	0.331	0.507	0.838	0.237	0.307
Alfonso Soriano	– – –	302	6.60%	26.80%	0.25	0.279	0.325	0.511	0.835	0.232	0.335
A.J. Pollock	ARI	242	6.60%	13.60%	0.48	0.283	0.332	0.511	0.843	0.229	0.304
Marlon Byrd	– – –	351	4.80%	23.40%	0.21	0.301	0.339	0.528	0.867	0.227	0.351
Mike Trout	LAA	369	17.10%	23.30%	0.73	0.292	0.415	0.518	0.933	0.226	0.36
Joey Votto	CIN	305	14.10%	23.30%	0.61	0.261	0.37	0.486	0.857	0.226	0.305
Nelson Cruz	– – –	279	12.50%	17.60%	0.71	0.299	0.387	0.523	0.91	0.224	0.326
Evan Longoria	TB	382	12.80%	19.10%	0.67	0.287	0.38	0.511	0.89	0.223	0.325
Edwin Encarnacion	TOR	241	14.10%	8.30%	1.7	0.267	0.373	0.49	0.864	0.223	0.256
Jayson Werth	WAS	275	16.00%	18.20%	0.88	0.339	0.444	0.561	1.005	0.222	0.387
Brian Dozier	MIN	355	10.10%	17.20%	0.59	0.29	0.366	0.51	0.876	0.219	0.322
Alex Rios	– – –	293	6.50%	14.30%	0.45	0.319	0.36	0.533	0.893	0.215	0.347
Hunter Pence	SF	381	8.90%	17.10%	0.52	0.296	0.36	0.507	0.867	0.212	0.327
Mike Napoli	BOS	318	16.40%	25.50%	0.64	0.291	0.409	0.502	0.911	0.211	0.378
Jhonny Peralta	– – –	278	12.60%	22.70%	0.56	0.311	0.403	0.521	0.924	0.21	0.391
David Ortiz	BOS	411	8.30%	16.10%	0.52	0.267	0.331	0.477	0.808	0.21	0.277
Derek Norris	OAK	346	12.40%	16.80%	0.74	0.316	0.402	0.525	0.927	0.209	0.352
Adrian Beltre	TEX	330	12.40%	12.40%	1	0.337	0.421	0.544	0.965	0.207	0.356
Adam Jones	BAL	387	7.20%	19.60%	0.37	0.292	0.351	0.499	0.85	0.207	0.332
Victor Martinez	DET	402	7.50%	10.20%	0.73	0.314	0.366	0.52	0.886	0.206	0.316
David Wright	NYM	281	13.90%	12.80%	1.08	0.351	0.441	0.556	0.998	0.205	0.383
Yan Gomes	CLE	272	5.50%	19.10%	0.29	0.329	0.368	0.534	0.902	0.205	0.372
Chris Iannetta	LAA	296	15.50%	18.90%	0.82	0.269	0.385	0.471	0.856	0.202	0.3
Danny Valencia	– – –	226	5.80%	13.70%	0.42	0.344	0.381	0.545	0.926	0.201	0.377

• This list is heavily populated by seasoned veterans, which is just a kind way of saying older players. Soriano (who has since retired), Byrd, Cruz, Werth, Rios, Pence, Napoli, etc. have all seen quite a bit of success against southpaws throughout their careers and continue to do so well into their 30s (except for Soriano).

• Arenado and Pollock are a couple of popular fantasy options this season, and for good reason. The favorable hitting environments that their home ball parks provide them with certainly don’t hurt their fantasy prospects.

• How good is Edwin Encarnacion’s plate discipline against lefties? How does a 1.7 BB/K ratio sound? That’s simply absurd for a power hitter in the pitching-dominant environment during the post-PED era.

• Was ’14 an off season or the beginning of the end for Alex Rios? Even when factoring in his poor results from last year, his production over this two year period is still quite impressive.

• Ruggiano, Norris, Iannetta, and Valencia look to be the short schedule matchup plays to exploit from this list when a LHP is on the mound. Don’t forget about them when you’re scouring the player pool looking for a batty call in your RCL this season.

That about does it for this edition. Is Michael Cuddyer or Aramis Ramirez this year’s zombino? Plan on picking up Mayberry or Ruggiano on short schedule days? Let me know in the comments. Thanks for stopping by.

50 Responses (Jump straight to the comment form)

J-FOH says:
March 12, 2015 at 11:17 am (link)

Splitsville is a real place if you consider a bowling alley a real place

http://www.splitsvillelanes.com/location/orlando/
- Big Magoo says:
  March 12, 2015 at 11:26 am (link)
  
  @J-FOH: Aren’t bowlers trying to avoid visiting Splitsville though? It’s like the owners are saying “don’t come here.”
  - J-FOH says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:33 am (link)
    
    @Big Magoo: I think they are saying its ok to come here, we get you
    - Big Magoo says:
      March 12, 2015 at 11:34 am (link)
      
      @J-FOH: It is in Orlando, so as long as it looks snazzy, the tourists should come…
- JeF With 1 F says:
  March 12, 2015 at 11:36 am (link)
  
  @J-FOH: Or my house
Grey says:
March 12, 2015 at 11:19 am (link)

One guy that sticks out that I wish I owned on a team already that I don’t: Trumbo
- Big Magoo says:
  March 12, 2015 at 11:28 am (link)
  
  @Grey: Yeah, he has a good chance to hit 30+ bombs if his foot’s completely healthy. Dual eligibility at 1B/OF too.
- J-FOH says:
  March 12, 2015 at 11:29 am (link)
  
  @Grey: the other white meat! and the other guy I wanted to write a post on. He looked good in Phoenix.
  - Grey says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:35 am (link)
    
    Yeah, in the 2 ABs we saw vs. scrub pitching… His numbers from previous years are nice and he’s not as old as most think
    - Jay says:
      March 12, 2015 at 11:41 am (link)
      
      @Grey: only 11 months older than Pedro Alvarez.
    - J-FOH says:
      March 12, 2015 at 11:52 am (link)
      
      @Grey: pitching was meh for sure, but he looked lean and his approach looked a little different from his days with the Angels. A healthy year, which is a big if, actually a big if for almost everyone these days, is worth the gamble this year. I see him as a guy that if you missed out on all the 1B options you take a shot with him and know the dice have been rolled. Id rather gamble on the Trumbomb over Hoser
      - Grey says:
        March 12, 2015 at 11:56 am (link)
        
        If Trumbo bounces back, he’s huge… If Hosmer bounces back, he’s decent to okay
  - Big Magoo says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:42 am (link)
    
    @J-FOH: There are 49 other players in this post if you want to write about any of them, although I’m not sure that Jeff Baker will generate too much traffic…
- Jay says:
  March 12, 2015 at 11:36 am (link)
  
  @Grey: Yeah, no one wanted him in that CBS auction… Evan Gattis though, 28 bucks.
  - Big Magoo says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:40 am (link)
    
    @Jay: Gattis went at #62 overall in the NFBC league that I’m co-managing with GTS this year. People are crazy high on him.
    - Jay says:
      March 12, 2015 at 11:43 am (link)
      
      @Big Magoo: Posey went for $28. Gattis is not special, and I’m not sure why they think he is.
      - J-FOH says:
        March 12, 2015 at 11:47 am (link)
        
        @Jay: Is this a precursor for the Gattis post I’m writing
    - Grey says:
      March 12, 2015 at 11:50 am (link)
      
      It’s the Mauer syndrome… Catcher eligibility that’s not catching
      - Big Magoo says:
        March 12, 2015 at 12:09 pm (link)
        
        @Grey: Gattis has plus power at least. Never understood the extreme Mauer love once he was beyond his .320+ days.
        
        Grey says:
        March 12, 2015 at 12:11 pm (link)
        
        Yeah, I like Gattis a lot more this year than I liked Mauer last year, but Gattis still feels like a 120-game guy even in the field…
    - J-FOH says:
      March 12, 2015 at 11:54 am (link)
      
      @Big Magoo: NFBC is such its own animal. In standard leagues he is still a value, IMO
      - Big Magoo says:
        March 12, 2015 at 12:11 pm (link)
        
        @J-FOH: I like him, just not at $28 or #62 overall in a mixed league.
  - Grey says:
    March 12, 2015 at 11:49 am (link)
    
    Crazy
MattTruss says:
March 12, 2015 at 11:59 am (link)

Man, I abused Van Slyke whenever possible last year vs LHP. Especially awesome was when the Rockies were rolling with 5 LHPs in their rotation and LA took a trip to mile high.

Holy crap on E5! That’s pretty incredible, damn near 2 to 1.

Nice work again Magoo, Razzball writer rookie of the year award so far.
- Big Magoo says:
  March 12, 2015 at 12:14 pm (link)
  
  @MattTruss: Thanks, Matt! Yeah, I batty called Van Slyke quite a bit last season too. It’ll be a race to the wire in the ECFBL for some of these guys.
  - MattTruss says:
    March 12, 2015 at 12:18 pm (link)
    
    Yup!
- Rudy Gamble says:
  March 12, 2015 at 12:39 pm (link)
  
  I did same thing. Recall streaming SVS and Uribe for those @COL games vs LHP
  - J-FOH says:
    March 12, 2015 at 12:45 pm (link)
    
    @Rudy Gamble: VAN SLYKE!
    - Rudy Gamble says:
      March 12, 2015 at 1:05 pm (link)
      
      From my RCL team stats:
      SVS – 8 Games, 12/30 (.400), 5 Runs / 3 HR / 9 RBI / 0 SB
      Uribe – 8 Games, 14/32 (.438), 4 Runs / 0 HR / 5 RBI / 0 SB
      
      Pretty, pretty good.
      - J-FOH says:
        March 12, 2015 at 1:09 pm (link)
        
        @Rudy Gamble: In DFS I got scotty at a discount for those games
- Fuzzy Dunlop says:
  March 12, 2015 at 6:40 pm (link)
  
  @MattTruss: yeah, but how many “rookie” writers do they have per year?
Mike says:
March 12, 2015 at 12:42 pm (link)

I have the 11 pick in a 14 team OPS Yahoo league. I like EE for my first pick but he is having problems with his back I draft this coming weekend I hope he plays before the draft.
- Big Magoo says:
  March 12, 2015 at 1:01 pm (link)
  
  @Mike: I still like EE at that spot despite the back issues. Bautista and Rizzo would make fine picks too, asssuming players like Goldy, Miggy, and Abreu are already off of the board.
simply fred says:
March 12, 2015 at 10:20 pm (link)

Very interesting look. Definitely gave me a couple that hadn’t been on my screen. Telling stats!

(Don’t think Khris merits the lofty company. In last 4 years, covering AA and AAA, highest ISO was .218 with the ‘anomally’ 2013’s .316.)?
- simply fred says:
  March 12, 2015 at 10:42 pm (link)
  
  @simply fred: those Khris’ overall ISOs, not vs. lefty. still, was vs. lefty just the one good year?
  - Big Magoo says:
    March 13, 2015 at 10:16 am (link)
    
    @simply fred: It’s a pretty small sample size for Davis. Just 186 PA vs LHP over the 2013-14 seasons. His ’13 results (50 PA, 6 HRs, .444 ISO, 1.009 OPS) help to bump his numbers up into the “elite” range of qualifiers. His plate discipline has been fairly poor thus far, but he hits for good power in a very favorable home park for home runs, so it looks like the power numbers might be here to stay. Thanks, Fred!
    - simply fred says:
      March 13, 2015 at 7:27 pm (link)
      
      @Big Magoo: Thanks for filling in my blanks.
      You really got me thinking. Spent the day ranking and weighing K% and ISO. Def interesting.
      
      BTW: Have always been an upside guy. Started looking at players’ downsides. A guy like Chris Carter,
      Steamer: 76R/33HR/84/4SB/.223AVG
      I ignored his two high months. Then prorated the other four to a full season:
      48R/25HR/60RBI/4SB/.195AVG
      
      I drafted him last year suffering the downside before I dropped him. Not gonna take that risk this year for those maybe/maybe not 33 HR.
      
      Thanks again!
      - simply fred says:
        March 13, 2015 at 7:36 pm (link)
        
        @simply fred: same proration for K.Davis:
        56R/17HR/50RBI/4SB/.228AVG
        
        again, that is four lowest months prorated for a full season…
      - Big Magoo says:
        March 14, 2015 at 10:18 am (link)
        
        @simply fred: No problem. I usually put some type of restriction on K% or K/BB ratio when doing these types of searches, but for this exercise I wanted to place added emphasis on power and just let the results play out. Players like Davis and Carter can be prone to prolonged slumps from time to time, but when they get hot, look out (Jul/Aug for Carter last season). Thanks for the thoughtful comments.
        
        simply fred says:
        March 14, 2015 at 12:24 pm (link)
        
        @Big Magoo: Won’t bug you anymore this post. This pretty eerie though:
        
        I am watching Mets game. Mayberry subs in against lefty. Announcer touts his strength against lefties.
        
        BOOOOOM!
        
        Big Magoo says:
        March 14, 2015 at 2:43 pm (link)
        
        @simply fred: Haha, timely! And you’re not bugging me in the least. I wouldn’t be doing this if I didn’t love to talk baseball and stats.
        
        simply fred says:
        March 14, 2015 at 6:54 pm (link)
        
        @Big Magoo: Van Slyke …ditto! Impactful insight!!!!! Having some fun now!
        
        Big Magoo says:
        March 15, 2015 at 8:54 pm (link)
        
        @simply fred: I saw that. Mayberry and Van Slyke!
Ante GALIC says:
March 13, 2015 at 12:02 am (link)

Big Magoo!

Fantastic write-up. I was thinking fr the title that it was about LH batters who mash, then, of course, read the article and finally concluded that would prolly be too obvious of an article….lefties who mash RHP i.e., almost everyone worth a grain of salt.

Question: Is it so obvious that all LH batters mash RHP? Is there a list of futility of RH hitters who fail vs LHP?

Cheers,
Ante
- Ante GALIC says:
  March 13, 2015 at 12:05 am (link)
  
  @Ante GALIC: just saw my question meant the reverse. Is there a list of futility of LH vs RHP? They’d prolly all be out of a job.
  
  Cheers,
  Ante
  - Big Magoo says:
    March 13, 2015 at 10:35 am (link)
    
    @Ante GALIC: Thanks, Ante! Sure, you could just reverse the search criteria to discover which hitters struggled against LHP and RHP.
    
    The futility award for a RHB against LHP over the last two seasons goes to… Jayson Nix with a .043 ISO. Honorable mention to B.J. (Melvin) Upton who brings up the rear with a .510 OPS.
    
    For a LHB versus RHP, those players would be John Baker for ISO (.027!) and Leury Garcia for OPS (.418).
    
    That list might be a good idea for potential hitters/lineups to exploit for pitchers. Good thinking!
SheriffMcRawDawg says:
March 13, 2015 at 11:08 pm (link)

Magoo!

Which 10 would you keep in a 10-team roto keep-forever?

Salvador Perez
Ramos
Napoli
Pedroia
Arenado
Baez
Bogaerts
Encarnacion
Avisail
Alex Gordon
Adam Jones
Matt Kemp
Marte
Singleton
Gallo
Machado
Tulowitzki

Fister
Gausman
Hamels
Kenley
Porcello
Scherzer
Taijuan Walker
Wheeler
Heaney
Latos

thanks!
- Big Magoo says:
  March 14, 2015 at 10:28 am (link)
  
  @SheriffMcRawDawg: Arenado, Bogaerts, Encarnacion, Jones, Marte, Machado, Tulo, Hamels, and Scherzer are the top 9 options for me.
  
  Could go a lot of different ways with the final keeper. If you’re looking for long-term upside offensively, Baez or Gallo could be options. If you want to win now, Kemp or Pedroia could work. If your format rewards pitching, Wheeler provides the best mix of short and long term value.
  
  Hope this helps!
  - SheriffMcRawDawg says:
    March 15, 2015 at 8:13 pm (link)
    
    @Big Magoo: thanks Magoo! I may go with Baez in the last spot and throw Kemp back. Grey likes Wheeler too but I think his latest elbow thing/MRI has me a little worried.
    
    Hamels would be a definite for you though?
    - Big Magoo says:
      March 15, 2015 at 8:52 pm (link)
      
      @SheriffMcRawDawg: No problem. Sounds good to me. I like Kemp, but his arthritic hips are a concern in a keep-forever league. Agreed on Wheeler too. I think Hamels has 2-3 high-end seasons left in him. Think he’s a good option as a #2 SP, especially if you’re keeping 8 bats. Good luck!

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