As I write this, I’m on a plane. I knew I wouldn’t have internet, so I asked myself what data could I pull and play with to help you play with your team. Let me play guarantee fairy again… I’m supposed to be writing about Deep Impact. I guarantee you can use this list to trade away pitchers that are over-performing for long term deep impact while targeting other pitchers that can provide you with more short-term value. Use the comments section below and I’ll scold or virtual high-five your trade offers.
Let’s get the approach out of the way, i.e. feel free to skip this section… I won’t get hardcore into it, but can in the comments below. I start by averaging the 3 expected ERA’s (xERA): xFIP, SIERA & Stephen Staude’s BERA. I then find the ERA-xERA differential and average this with a Luck minus Skill score. Luck stats incorporate BABIP compared to linedrive-rates (LD%), homerun to flyball ratios (HR/FB), and left-on-base percentage (LOB%). Skill stats incorporate an averaged contact (Ct%), swinging strike (SwStr%) and strikeout rate minus walk rate (K%-BB%) as well as a combined groundball to flyball ratio (GB/FB) and infield flyball rate (IFFB%). Let’s just say I z-score the daylights out of everything. I can furnish the full matrix so that you can sort by all of these factors and combined effects if you want to request below. Stats are complete as of noon CST on 6/24.
So who are the luckiest pitchers in baseball?
The value of this overall Luck-Skill score is verified immediately with the following list:
- Chris Young (3.22 score): Duh. Seattle is helping but the guy has an elite LD% (16.7) which is somewhat backing up the BABIP (best in baseball, .209). He also has the 7th best LOB% in baseball and a top 40 HR/FB ratio. Know that he’s sporting the 6th worst skill score after Kevin Correia, JA Happ, Nicholas Martinez, Bartolo Colon and Jeremy Guthrie. Ew.
- Dillon Gee (2.32): Pretty sad that Chris Young is almost an entire standard deviation away from #2 on this list.
- Danny Duffy (2.13).
- Mark Buehrle (1.98), Obviously.
- Shelby Miller (1.84), Yup.
- Doug Fister (1.83).
- Nicholas Martinez (1.77).
- Jeremy Guthrie (1.63).
- Anibal Sanchez (1.61).
- Andrew Cashner (1.59).
I still like Danny Duffy and Shelby Miller somewhat and certainly wouldn’t sell Fister, Sanchez or Cashner without a solid return, but if I’m selling for dynasty considerations, all 5 of these guys are perfect sell candidates. Others I like, but have been relatively lucky to date: Jon Niese (#12), Adam Wainwright (#14) even though he is still rather skillsy, Scott Kazmir (#17) and Julio Teheran (#20). Don’t be surprised with guys like Waino and Teheran this high. They’re solid pitchers, but not to the degree of their current surface stats. Again, based on the return, these two guys can return quite the value from teams trying to win-now. In one league, I traded Sonny Gray for Mookie Betts and Joc Pederson earlier this season. Based on a similar list to this and pitch repertoires, I picked up Dallas Keuchel and Collin McHugh making the Gray loss relatively moot. That’s impact baby.
On the other side of the equation, these guys are uber-worth targeting based on their skill/luck factors to date, i.e. are very skillsy without much luck (Zack Wheeler or to a glorious degree, Masahiro Tanaka); or are relatively skillsy, with bad luck to date (Homer Bailey or to a glorious degree, Stephen Strasburg). That’s right: Tanaka’s overall luck score (slightly unlucky actually) is close to average meaning his performance to date is all skill. Strasburg’s skill score is about 1 standard deviation away from Tanaka’s but he’s also been pretty unlucky (1 standard deviation below average or 131/145 from this list) meaning if you can somehow buy, then do it because there’s a good chance he’s even better than we see right now.
Here are the straight-up skillsiest pitchers in baseball according to this skill score:
- Clayton Kershaw (3.77).
- Dallas Keuchel (3.20), Count me in the Dallas Buyer’s Club baby!
- Masahiro Tanaka (2.87).
- Jose Fernandez (2.71).
- Francisco Liriano (2.62), with Felix Hernandez, Corey Kluber, Tyson Ross, Cole Hamels, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Sale and even Justin Masterson and Chris Archer are all within the top-20.
But incorporating luck, here are the guys with a relatively bad amount of luck or not much luck at all with skill scores at least one standard deviations better than average. This doesn’t mean these are the best pitchers in this order. For example, Edwin Jackson is only 1 SD from the mean in the skill department. He’s just been pretty unlucky. Masterson is actually pretty skillsy, but has been slightly unlucky. Brandon McCarthy actually shows up #1 on this list, but his skill score is only slightly better than average. He’s just had the worst luck. He’s the Chris Young of bad luck.
- Clayton Kershaw (-2.42) Luck=.11; Skill=3.77; ERA Differential z-score=-1.18
- Francisco Liriano (-2.33) Luck=-.79; Skill=2.62; ERA Diff=-1.24
- Edwin Jackson (-2.30)
- Justin Masterson (-1.97)
- Stephen Strasburg (-1.97)
- Homer Bailey (-1.81)
- David Price (-1.75)
- Ervin Santana (-1.72)
- Corey Kluber (-1.59)
- Yusmiero Petit (-1.32)
- Jose Fernandez (-1.29)
- Mashairo Tanaka (-1.22)
Others absolutely worth noting that you should buy into: Alex Wood (-1.11), Tyson Ross (-1.11), Zack Wheeler (-1.10), Dallas Keuchel (-1.07). And naturally up high on this list: Felix Hernandez (-.95), Mike Minor (-.84), Alex Cobb (-.82), Zack Greinke (-.72) and Cole Hamels (-.54).
Again, I can furnish the full matrix if you request below, but here is the list ordered by the luckiest SOB’s, with their overall, luck, skill and expected ERA differentials presented:
| Rk | As of noon, 6/24/14 | Team | OVERALL | Luck | Skill | xERAdiff |
| 1 | Chris Young | Mariners | 3.22 | 1.91 | -1.82 | 2.71 |
| 2 | Dillon Gee | Mets | 2.32 | 1.33 | -1.36 | 1.96 |
| 3 | Danny Duffy | Royals | 2.13 | 1.62 | -0.88 | 1.77 |
| 4 | Mark Buehrle | Blue Jays | 1.98 | 0.63 | -1.02 | 2.31 |
| 5 | Shelby Miller | Cardinals | 1.84 | 0.71 | -1.66 | 1.30 |
| 6 | Doug Fister | Nationals | 1.83 | 0.94 | -1.34 | 1.38 |
| 7 | Nicholas Martinez | Rangers | 1.77 | 0.07 | -2.01 | 1.45 |
| 8 | Jeremy Guthrie | Royals | 1.63 | 0.65 | -1.86 | 0.75 |
| 9 | Anibal Sanchez | Tigers | 1.61 | 1.36 | -0.61 | 1.26 |
| 10 | Andrew Cashner | Padres | 1.59 | 0.71 | -1.08 | 1.39 |
| 11 | Tanner Roark | Nationals | 1.54 | 1.29 | -0.75 | 1.05 |
| 12 | Jon Niese | Mets | 1.48 | 0.56 | -1.15 | 1.25 |
| 13 | Cesar Ramos | Rays | 1.45 | 0.59 | -1.61 | 0.70 |
| 14 | Adam Wainwright | Cardinals | 1.39 | 1.10 | -0.48 | 1.20 |
| 15 | Tom Koehler | Marlins | 1.37 | 0.75 | -1.30 | 0.70 |
| 16 | Bud Norris | Orioles | 1.32 | 0.53 | -1.23 | 0.89 |
| 17 | Scott Kazmir | Athletics | 1.29 | 1.78 | 0.57 | 1.38 |
| 18 | Alfredo Simon | Reds | 1.27 | 0.73 | -0.36 | 1.45 |
| 19 | Josh Collmenter | D-backs | 1.24 | 0.56 | -1.35 | 0.57 |
| 20 | Julio Teheran | Braves | 1.21 | 1.38 | 0.27 | 1.32 |
| 21 | Drew Pomeranz | Athletics | 1.12 | 0.52 | -0.45 | 1.26 |
| 22 | Jered Weaver | Angels | 1.11 | 1.12 | -0.34 | 0.76 |
| 23 | Dustin McGowan | Blue Jays | 1.11 | 0.94 | -0.41 | 0.86 |
| 24 | Chris Tillman | Orioles | 1.11 | 0.16 | -1.72 | 0.33 |
| 25 | Kevin Correia | Twins | 1.08 | -0.07 | -2.89 | -0.65 |
| 26 | John Danks | White Sox | 1.04 | 0.61 | -1.07 | 0.40 |
| 27 | Scott Feldman | Astros | 1.02 | -0.11 | -1.67 | 0.47 |
| 28 | Kyle Lohse | Brewers | 0.99 | 0.73 | -0.54 | 0.70 |
| 29 | Jason Vargas | Royals | 0.96 | 0.51 | -0.35 | 1.07 |
| 30 | Erik Bedard | Rays | 0.86 | 0.16 | -1.61 | -0.04 |
| 31 | Bartolo Colon | Mets | 0.84 | -0.11 | -1.97 | -0.18 |
| 32 | Johnny Cueto | Reds | 0.82 | 1.51 | 0.99 | 1.12 |
| 33 | Yovani Gallardo | Brewers | 0.82 | 0.35 | -0.76 | 0.53 |
| 34 | Hyun-Jin Ryu | Dodgers | 0.77 | 0.36 | -0.63 | 0.56 |
| 35 | Tim Hudson | Giants | 0.75 | 0.74 | 0.44 | 1.19 |
| 36 | A.J. Burnett | Phillies | 0.74 | -0.16 | -1.18 | 0.47 |
| 37 | Jesse Chavez | Athletics | 0.69 | 0.17 | -0.19 | 1.02 |
| 38 | Tommy Milone | Athletics | 0.68 | 0.26 | -0.39 | 0.71 |
| 39 | Drew Smyly | Tigers | 0.64 | 0.36 | -0.22 | 0.69 |
| 40 | Henderson Alvarez | Marlins | 0.63 | -0.01 | 0.07 | 1.34 |
| 41 | Josh Beckett | Dodgers | 0.63 | 1.03 | 1.19 | 1.41 |
| 42 | Lance Lynn | Cardinals | 0.62 | 0.73 | 0.35 | 0.87 |
| 43 | Jarred Cosart | Astros | 0.61 | 0.50 | -0.43 | 0.29 |
| 44 | Kyle Gibson | Twins | 0.54 | 1.38 | 1.16 | 0.86 |
| 45 | David Phelps | Yankees | 0.53 | -0.23 | -1.03 | 0.26 |
| 46 | Sonny Gray | Athletics | 0.52 | 0.72 | 0.34 | 0.66 |
| 47 | Edinson Volquez | Pirates | 0.48 | 0.57 | -0.46 | -0.07 |
| 48 | Drew Hutchison | Blue Jays | 0.42 | 0.21 | -0.52 | 0.12 |
| 49 | Jhoulys Chacin | Rockies | 0.41 | -0.05 | -1.04 | -0.16 |
| 50 | J.A. Happ | Blue Jays | 0.39 | -0.85 | -2.13 | -0.50 |
| 51 | Nathan Eovaldi | Marlins | 0.38 | 0.17 | -0.59 | 0.00 |
| 52 | Aaron Harang | Braves | 0.36 | 0.08 | -0.73 | -0.09 |
| 53 | Dan Haren | Dodgers | 0.30 | -0.37 | -0.64 | 0.33 |
| 54 | Jordan Lyles | Rockies | 0.29 | -0.59 | -0.58 | 0.58 |
| 55 | Michael Wacha | Cardinals | 0.28 | 0.63 | 0.75 | 0.69 |
| 56 | Kyle Kendrick | Phillies | 0.27 | 0.13 | -0.28 | 0.13 |
| 57 | Matt Garza | Brewers | 0.22 | 0.02 | -0.44 | -0.01 |
| 58 | Brad Peacock | Astros | 0.21 | 0.04 | -0.57 | -0.19 |
| 59 | C.J. Wilson | Angels | 0.19 | 0.61 | 0.49 | 0.26 |
| 60 | Charlie Morton | Pirates | 0.18 | -0.05 | 0.08 | 0.48 |
| 61 | Phil Hughes | Twins | 0.16 | 0.03 | -0.53 | -0.25 |
| 62 | Felix Doubront | Red Sox | 0.16 | -0.47 | -1.11 | -0.33 |
| 63 | Jeff Samardzija | Cubs | 0.15 | 0.23 | 0.73 | 0.81 |
| 64 | Travis Wood | Cubs | 0.15 | 0.36 | -0.39 | -0.45 |
| 65 | Mike Leake | Reds | 0.12 | -0.23 | -0.49 | -0.02 |
| 66 | Ryan Vogelsong | Giants | 0.12 | -0.43 | -0.84 | -0.17 |
| 67 | Jake Peavy | Red Sox | 0.08 | -0.12 | -0.45 | -0.18 |
| 68 | Wily Peralta | Brewers | 0.05 | -0.04 | 0.57 | 0.72 |
| 69 | Roberto Hernandez | Phillies | 0.05 | -0.32 | -0.29 | 0.13 |
| 70 | Ubaldo Jimenez | Orioles | 0.02 | -0.42 | -0.49 | -0.01 |
| 71 | Wei-Yin Chen | Orioles | -0.01 | -0.27 | -0.31 | -0.07 |
| 72 | Jason Hammel | Cubs | -0.03 | 0.32 | 0.68 | 0.29 |
| 73 | Collin McHugh | Astros | -0.03 | 0.69 | 1.38 | 0.63 |
| 74 | Roenis Elias | Mariners | -0.07 | 0.08 | 0.31 | 0.10 |
| 75 | Yu Darvish | Rangers | -0.10 | -0.05 | 0.77 | 0.62 |
| 76 | Jose Quintana | White Sox | -0.10 | -0.50 | -0.63 | -0.33 |
| 77 | R.A. Dickey | Blue Jays | -0.11 | 0.02 | 0.51 | 0.27 |
| 78 | Garrett Richards | Angels | -0.11 | 0.88 | 1.60 | 0.49 |
| 79 | Bronson Arroyo | D-backs | -0.14 | -0.28 | -0.09 | -0.09 |
| 80 | Jake Arrieta | Cubs | -0.14 | 0.48 | 1.69 | 0.92 |
| 81 | Martin Perez | Rangers | -0.14 | -0.40 | -0.61 | -0.50 |
| 82 | Hisashi Iwakuma | Mariners | -0.18 | -0.24 | 0.19 | 0.07 |
| 83 | Miguel Gonzalez | Orioles | -0.23 | -0.14 | 0.01 | -0.31 |
| 84 | Chris Sale | White Sox | -0.23 | 1.29 | 1.96 | 0.21 |
| 85 | Tony Cingrani | Reds | -0.27 | -0.41 | 0.07 | -0.04 |
| 86 | Madison Bumgarner | Giants | -0.28 | 0.35 | 1.18 | 0.27 |
| 87 | Samuel Deduno | Twins | -0.29 | -0.16 | -0.81 | -1.23 |
| 88 | Matt Cain | Giants | -0.31 | -0.15 | -0.42 | -0.88 |
| 89 | Gavin Floyd | Braves | -0.32 | -0.17 | 1.52 | 1.06 |
| 90 | Yordano Ventura | Royals | -0.32 | 0.31 | 1.18 | 0.23 |
| 91 | Rick Porcello | Tigers | -0.32 | -0.57 | 0.35 | 0.28 |
| 92 | James Shields | Royals | -0.36 | -0.56 | 0.15 | -0.01 |
| 93 | John Lackey | Red Sox | -0.39 | -0.22 | 0.32 | -0.23 |
| 94 | Justin Verlander | Tigers | -0.39 | 0.09 | 0.22 | -0.66 |
| 95 | Cliff Lee | Phillies | -0.41 | -0.51 | 0.06 | -0.25 |
| 96 | Gio Gonzalez | Nationals | -0.41 | 0.43 | 0.37 | -0.88 |
| 97 | Gerrit Cole | Pirates | -0.44 | -0.25 | 0.53 | -0.10 |
| 98 | Eric Stults | Padres | -0.45 | -1.27 | -1.57 | -1.20 |
| 99 | Hiroki Kuroda | Yankees | -0.48 | -0.21 | 0.17 | -0.58 |
| 100 | Brett Oberholtzer | Astros | -0.48 | -0.43 | -0.57 | -1.11 |
| 101 | Jorge de la Rosa | Rockies | -0.50 | -0.04 | 0.37 | -0.58 |
| 102 | Max Scherzer | Tigers | -0.51 | -0.21 | 0.17 | -0.64 |
| 103 | Jordan Zimmermann | Nationals | -0.53 | -0.06 | 1.23 | 0.24 |
| 104 | Tyler Skaggs | Angels | -0.53 | -0.10 | 0.18 | -0.78 |
| 105 | Ian Kennedy | Padres | -0.53 | -0.25 | -0.16 | -0.97 |
| 106 | Cole Hamels | Phillies | -0.54 | 0.50 | 2.07 | 0.49 |
| 107 | Marco Estrada | Brewers | -0.54 | -0.03 | -0.19 | -1.24 |
| 108 | Andre Rienzo | White Sox | -0.55 | -1.03 | -1.37 | -1.46 |
| 109 | Hector Noesi | – – – | -0.58 | -0.76 | -0.93 | -1.33 |
| 110 | Vidal Nuno | Yankees | -0.65 | -0.92 | -1.32 | -1.69 |
| 111 | Chris Archer | Rays | -0.67 | 0.24 | 2.09 | 0.50 |
| 112 | Zack Greinke | Dodgers | -0.72 | -0.43 | 1.08 | 0.07 |
| 113 | Jon Lester | Red Sox | -0.72 | -0.42 | 1.03 | 0.00 |
| 114 | Jenrry Mejia | Mets | -0.75 | -0.62 | 0.20 | -0.67 |
| 115 | Jake Odorizzi | Rays | -0.76 | -0.12 | 0.15 | -1.24 |
| 116 | Alex Cobb | Rays | -0.82 | 0.24 | 1.13 | -0.74 |
| 117 | Colby Lewis | Rangers | -0.84 | -1.41 | -1.44 | -1.71 |
| 118 | Mike Minor | Braves | -0.84 | -1.61 | -0.55 | -0.62 |
| 119 | Ricky Nolasco | Twins | -0.89 | -1.04 | -0.75 | -1.50 |
| 120 | Wade Miley | D-backs | -0.91 | -0.91 | -0.20 | -1.12 |
| 121 | Felix Hernandez | Mariners | -0.95 | 0.42 | 2.41 | 0.09 |
| 122 | Josh Tomlin | Indians | -1.05 | -1.26 | 0.03 | -0.82 |
| 123 | Juan Nicasio | Rockies | -1.06 | -1.40 | -0.87 | -1.60 |
| 124 | Dallas Keuchel | Astros | -1.07 | 0.80 | 3.20 | 0.26 |
| 125 | Zack Wheeler | Mets | -1.10 | -0.07 | 1.33 | -0.79 |
| 126 | Tyson Ross | Padres | -1.11 | -0.32 | 2.09 | 0.20 |
| 127 | Alex Wood | Braves | -1.11 | -0.79 | 0.94 | -0.49 |
| 128 | Tim Lincecum | Giants | -1.13 | -1.18 | -0.14 | -1.22 |
| 129 | Franklin Morales | Rockies | -1.19 | -1.47 | -0.42 | -1.34 |
| 130 | Masahiro Tanaka | Yankees | -1.22 | -0.12 | 2.87 | 0.55 |
| 131 | Jose Fernandez | Marlins | -1.29 | 0.53 | 2.71 | -0.39 |
| 132 | Yusmeiro Petit | Giants | -1.32 | -0.12 | 1.35 | -1.16 |
| 133 | Robbie Ross | Rangers | -1.33 | -1.54 | -0.66 | -1.78 |
| 134 | Clay Buchholz | Red Sox | -1.52 | -1.43 | -1.34 | -2.96 |
| 135 | Corey Kluber | Indians | -1.59 | -0.53 | 2.17 | -0.48 |
| 136 | Ervin Santana | Braves | -1.72 | -1.26 | 1.34 | -0.85 |
| 137 | David Price | Rays | -1.75 | -0.65 | 1.35 | -1.51 |
| 138 | Homer Bailey | Reds | -1.81 | -1.10 | 1.16 | -1.35 |
| 139 | Stephen Strasburg | Nationals | -1.97 | -1.07 | 1.97 | -0.90 |
| 140 | Justin Masterson | Indians | -1.97 | -0.40 | 2.43 | -1.12 |
| 141 | Edwin Jackson | Cubs | -2.30 | -1.84 | 1.13 | -1.62 |
| 142 | Francisco Liriano | Pirates | -2.33 | -0.79 | 2.62 | -1.24 |
| 143 | Jacob Turner | Marlins | -2.41 | -1.86 | -0.38 | -3.34 |
| 144 | Clayton Kershaw | Dodgers | -2.42 | 0.11 | 3.77 | -1.18 |
| 145 | Brandon McCarthy | D-backs | -2.55 | -2.31 | 0.24 | -2.55 |
Follow Dano on Twitter @Rotobanter. Reach out to him if you’re going to be in MSP for the 2014 All Star Game.
