Two-Start Pitchers, Week 1: Buying or Elieser-ing?

“But wait! The season has already begun!” Razzball nation cries out. 

Yes good people — but many teams didn’t announce their starting rotations until yesterday — and some still haven’t! So there’s going to be a bit of extrapolation on my part trying to predict exactly who is going to be starting, on what day, against which team, with what weapon and in what room. The San Francisco Giants for example have a game in a little over 5 hours as I’m writing this and the scheduled starter is that young, fire-balling, lefty from Korea: TBD. 

If you’ve found Razzball you know what to expect from a weekly two-start pitcher column. Every Saturday morning I’ll highlight the starting pitchers who have two starts in an upcoming week and I’ll rank ‘em and tier ‘em. Tier 1 — you can basically ignore reading this section each week. If you need me to tell you to start Gerrit Cole for both games of his two-start week — you don’t deserve Razzball’s content! But tier 2 through 5 is where your money is made, your bread is buttered and your week is won — well maybe not tier 5. Tier 5 is not for the faint of heart. That’s where your money is lost, your bread is burnt and your week is lost. 

As the season progresses I’ll be able to also recommend/reject certain pitchers based on their match-ups and stadiums. Again — for your top tier pitchers, this won’t matter. But German Marquez against the Dodgers in Coors Field? Maybe leave him on your bench for that match-up. Unfortunately, this early in the season, I can make predictions on who I think will be a tough offense to face — the Marlins are atop the NL East standings so who knows what will happen by week 5? 

One last thing to keep in mind — some teams will be implementing bullpen games. I won’t be including these in the two-start rankings. One or two innings pitched does not really constitute a “start” in my eyes.

I’ll also be trying to come up with fun themes for the tiers each week. If you have any fun theme ideas with descending values let me know. For example, this week we’re looking at Star Wars quotes. 

Tier 1: “Hello, what have we here?”

Just like Lando — when you see something you like — you have to let them know. These are the only three elite must-start options in my eyes for this week. I was flirting with the idea of moving Josh James up here — but want to see how many innings he gets and how he fares against the Angels with Rendon. 

• There’s Cole, just like I toldjya — Phillies can be a tough line-up, but Boston shouldn’t be that hard anymore.
• I was back and forth between Buehler and Glasnow based on their match-ups, but I think Buehler is the better pitcher even though Glasnow should throw a complete game shutout with 22 K’s against the Orioles. 

Tier 2: “Do or do not. There is no try.“

You drafted these sleepers hoping for a break-out so if you’re trying to flex on your opponents — start these guys regardless of their match-up.

• Josh James, Adrian Houser, and Pablo Lopez are the only ones with easy-ish schedules out of everyone this week. But even so — how will the new look Angels hit this year? Will St. Louis make the playoffs this year like they always seem to? Will Soto (aka half the Nationals offense) still be out against Pablo Lopez? 
• Lucchesi should feast on the Giants — but his 1.3 HR/9 in Colorado is concerning. 
• I like Luke Weaver’s skillset for the whole season, but he draws one of the tougher match-up pairs this week against the Padres and Dodgers. I might consider benching him this week. 

Tier 3: “I find your lack of faith disturbing.”

I’ll be honest I don’t have a lot of faith in many of these pitchers. It seems like every offense will be tough — especially since they all get a DH this year. 

• If you’re playing the match-ups game from this group I’d invest most in Anibal Sanchez, Chris Bassit, Tyler Mahle, and Elieser Hernandez. 
• The match-ups I want to avoid are: Mike Foltynewicz, Griffin Canning, Aaron Civale, and Zach Plesac. Especially those pair from the Cleveland Baseball Team — White Sox and Twins are a recipe for ERA’s over 6.00
• Grab Tyler Mahle if you can — he’s filling in for Anthony deSclafani for one or two starts and he’s got a mixed bag of games. Cubs obviously can still rake when asked to, but the Tigers should be an easy start. This should be Mahle’s role all season — starting pitcher fill-in and innings eating reliever. Either way they should be quality innings. 
• Elieser Hernandez is my top match-up play of this tier. Baltimore is a joke and Washington isn’t the same without Soto, Rendon, Bryce, and Zimmerman. 

Tier 4: “Never tell me the odds!”

They’re slim. 

• Just like his teammate Mahle, Miley gets the Tigers, who he should get a quality start against, but the Cubbies infield will always be dangerous to face. 
• Austin Voth is someone to add if your leaguemates haven’t been paying attention. He won the 5th starter job in Washington and now gets a mixed bag of starts. Blue Jays are young, but they’re reeeaddddyyy. Marlins are young, but not so ready. 
• I want nothing to do with Jake Arrieta or Kyle Wright this week. Both have a pair of tough match-ups. 

Tier 5: “May the force be with you.”

You’re going to need to use the force from your couch to trust these pitchers this week. 

• Either based on skills or tough match-up — I don’t really want to touch anyone here. If you’re desperate and need to reach your innings pitched or games started minimum I could see maybe taking a shot on Zach Davies. Yes, he’s facing Colorado in Colorado, but Davies has a career 1.50 GB/FB ratio and a 1.0 HR/9.
• If you’re picking and popping starting pitchers based on match-ups I would look at:
  • Alec Mills vs. PIT
  • Dario Agrazal vs KC
  • Matt Andriese vs. SEA