With the top 80 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball, I will say this, we are having such a gay time! Gay like Colin Firth would use it. In an 19th century period drama. As in merriment. We are having ourselves a merry old time! Okay, that’s very gay. Still the same definition of gay. Merry. Merry, merry, quite contrarian of you if you say different! The starters start to thin out a little when we get to this post — not you, Sabathia! — but there’s still plenty to go around. You could likely draft starters from only this post and do fine in some leagues. Think I’m a liar. Well, I’m offended, but in this post last year was Samardzija, Peralta, Ventura, Quintana and Pineda. How many of those guys had an ERA over 3.50? One, Peralta at 3.53. I just got goose pimples typing that, but I also have the flu so maybe I should drink fluids. All the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are there. My tiers and projections are noted. Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball:
61. Chris Tillman – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball. This tier goes from here until Chen. I called this tier, “Guys that I don’t like that I end up unintentionally endorsing because others dislike them even more.” As for Tillman, his fastball velocities the past three years were: 92.4 MPH, 91.6 MPH and 90.7 MPH. He will be 27 years old in April. With how his velocities are trending, he’ll need to adopt a knuckle ball by the time he’s 30 years old. When he turns forty, he’ll be in a televised contest pitting his fastball against an 80-year-old man running. The last three years, Tillman’s made the dwindling velocity and falling K-rate work for him. Though, it has been with some luck. Though, Part II: Another One Of Thoughs, he does induce weak contact, so the the low BABIPs aren’t all good luck. As with the other guys in this tier, I’d draft Tillman, but I’m not exactly rolling out the red carpet. After writing that last sentence, why did I start thinking of Joan from Mad Men? Hmm… 2015 Projections: 12-10/3.70/1.27/155
62. Jason Hammel – This offseason I said, “He returns to the Cubs. Hammel should be famous in fantasy baseball circles (which for fantasy baseball is more of a circle jerk) because he is the personification of why you shouldn’t draft pitching. Hammel will be around a 3.60 ERA guy with decent Ks and usable in all leagues, but won’t be drafted in most shallower leagues and not drafted until the end of drafts in deeper leagues. No one looks at Hammel, yet he’s capable of being as good as any starter you draft after the top 20. Last year, Hammel had a 2.98 ERA in Chicago, then 4.26 in Oakland (totaling 3.47 ERA in 176 1/3 IP). His only serious drawback, he’s never pitched more than 176 2/3 IP and he’s already 32 years old.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 9-11/3.67/1.22/151
63. Anibal Sanchez – This is one exciting tier– What happened? I fell asleep. I was thinking about how I wasn’t sure if that was Ron Perlman or Will Ferrell in the Sons of Anarchy and I conked out. Oh, I’m ranking pitchers, right! Yeah, Anibal– *snooze* Shoot, it happened again. I’m going to toothpick my eyes open like I’m Malcolm McDowell in A Clockwork Orange or like I’m myself watching Malcolm McDowell in Mozart in the Jungle. Anibal has a 3.53 ERA in 1177 lifetime IP and a 7.93 K/9. If he matches those numbers, he’s a solid number two. If he continues to decline and not stay healthy, he’s an okay number three to four. 2015 Projections: 12-7/3.59/1.17/139
64. Wei-Yin Chen – Last year was prolly the best we’re going to get from Chen: 3.54 ERA, 6.6 K/9, 1.7 BB/9 and 16 wins. That’s a guy that you don’t even hold onto for the better part of the year, so why am I ranking him this high? This isn’t high. 2015 Projections: 12-10/3.69/1.26/142
65. Tony Cingrani – Cingrani could strike out more than 10 guys per inning as he did in 104 2/3 major league innings in 2013. That’s right, he’s already had a 10+ K/9 in the majors. 10+ K/9 with an under 3 BB/9 would make him a top 15 starter. Of course, an under 3 BB/9 seems like a pie in the sky dream. An Anthony can’t lift a rubber tree plant with his control. But I got hiiiiiiiigh hopes. I got… Any hoo! Cingrani could have a 5+ ERA this year or around a 2.75. Hard to say, but worth the gamble. UPDATE: Will be used used as a reliever. 2015 Projections: 9-12/3.87/1.36/158
66. Jesse Hahn – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Hellickson. I call this tier, “You know they’re sexy, sexy, sexy cos you heard it from hearsay.” Want a guy that could move into the top 20 starters next year? Look no further! That’s a figure of speech. You need to keep looking because I’m not done yet. Like most baseball nerds with some extra time on their hands, I started looking through baseball stats for s’s and g’s. I stumbled on the batting average against for pitchers who had just thrown their 26th pitch and before they threw their 76th pitch. Innings 2-ish to 5-ish, depending on how well they’re throwing. Of course, I started with Clayton Kershaw, because if I want to find a solid, under-the-radar pitcher, the best place to go is with the best and then see who is around him. Kershaw’s BAA (which is batting average against, not Kershaw’s loudmouth sheep) last year was .215. If only I could find a starter around him that less people knew…I wasn’t looking for the Wainwrights, Cuetos or Sales of the world. That’s when I stumbled on Hahn. His BAA from pitches 26-75 is .164. Something Jim Bakker’s known for many years, Hahn is one hot piece of tail! Then, as most with time on their hands do, they start cherrypicking why this matters. A young pitcher may not have his stuff in the first few innings, that’s why Hahn’s BAA in his first 25 pitches of the game is only .267. Then a young pitcher is going to tire and that’s why he has a .280 BAA in the 76-100 pitches of the game. By the by, .267 and .280 aren’t hideous. Also, while cherrypicking all these great stats, I also figured that as Hahn got a year older, his late-game numbers would get better. I’ve just talked myself into thinking Hahn will be Kershaw in 2015. Whew, now that that is settled, I’m going to have some Country Time Lemonade, sit on a porch and swing on my bench. 2015 Projections: 9-12/3.58/1.24/137
67. James Paxton – Okay, everyone in this tier could-slash-should have a sleeper post. It’s the way of the young pitcher to throw fast and Paxton is no joke either. He can routinely touch 95 MPH too. You want young pitchers because from the moment they enter the league, their stuff erodes. Sure, some pitchers figure out how to work better with their pitches, but from pure nastiness, younger is better. Last year, he had a 7.2 K/9 and 3.5 BB/9, which is a slice of whatevs, but he regularly had a 9+ K/9 in the minors and every year he seems to harness his control a bit more. I wouldn’t be shocked if this year we see a guy that struggles with inconsistency in the first half, then becomes a number one starter in the 2nd half. You read it here first! Unless you read it elsewhere already. 2015 Projections: 10-8/3.49/1.28/158
68. Taijuan Walker – After drafting him in every league last year and going crazy for him in the preseason, I’m probably just falling for the ol’ banana-in-the-tailpipe again. I can’t help it, I love him. Taijuanna know why? Let’s see, 95 MPH fastball, a 2.61 ERA last year in 38 IP when the M’s did finally let him start, a 9+ K/9 in just about every minor league stop. In some minor league stops, he had a 10+ K/9. Taijuan will be a top 10 starter at some point. Unfortch, he’s still only 22 and it might not be until sixteen or seventeen after twenty. 2015 Projections: 10-4/3.15/1.26/112
69. Michael Wacha – C’mon, look at this tier and tell me there aren’t a shizzton of pitchers to draft. I wanted Wacha in a higher tier, but his shoulder injury last year has me putting him down here and saying I will draft him, but I won’t reach for him. He had a stress reaction in his shoulder, which often comes from the shoulder wanting to do more but a nagging mother keeps yelling at it and it just get stressed out. Or at least that’s what WebMD says. All you need to know is it’s uncommon and the most prominent other case was Brandon McCarthy, a guy that just last year threw 200 IP for the first time in his career and he’s now 31. Seems like something that could have Wacha lucky to throw 150 IP. A decent 150 IP, but maybe not more. 2015 Projections: 9-8/3.31/1.22/134
70. Jimmy Nelson – The Brewers went against their previous ten years of modus operandi and actually got younger this offseason in their rotation. (They’re still having a hard time going younger with the hitting. Adam Lind? Really, Seth Myers?) Nelson has a 94 MPH fastball, regularly 9+ K-rate in the minors and not a hideous walk rate. Basically, he’s my Charo and I’m on the fantasy baseball Love Boat. He would be the first one replaced in the rotation if management decides to do anything stoopid, but he should be able to throw a whole year of innings and he could be a huge value surprise. 2015 Projections: 8-11/3.66/1.32/157
71. Andrew Heaney – This is what I said this offseason, “(Heaney) was the best pickup by the Dodgers since Rick Monday picked up a flag in the outfield, then they traded him to the Angels for Howie Kendrick. Yes, the Los Angeles Angels of Not Really Los Angeles traded with their not-really-geographic-brethren, the Los Angeles Dodgers of Los Angeles. I’ve already given you my Andrew Heaney fantasy, and it’s all still relevant. Like how it says I don’t have ovaries. It also says, ‘With three pitches that he can locate, including that 90 MPH fastball, he should be good for 7 to 7.5 K/9 and a 2.2 to 2.6 BB/9. That’s 160 Ks and a manageable WHIP in 200 IP, which is really what this post is about — I buried the lede like I’m Alfred Hitchcock. Heaney should have a rotation job all year and could throw 190-200 IP in 2015. For deeper mixed leagues, a guy that can get 160 Ks, while delivering some upside, is definitely a gamble worth taking. For now, I’m going to leave the projections the same, but his 5th starter job is more tenuous now than it was yesterday.'” And that’s me quoting me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 9-10/3.89/1.28/155
72. Trevor Bauer – Hey, Indians, stop with all the upside, would ya? Since it’s unavoidable, what is the difference between Bauer, Salazar and Carrasco? Besides that Bauer works for USPS in the offseason, airmailing packages to Canada with a flip of his wrist, Carrasco had a sub-2 BB/9 last year, Salazar had a sub-3 and Bauer had a sub-4. Seriously, for fantasy purposes, that’s about it. A sub-4 BB/9 can get better in a hurry and make Bauer a 2-something ERA guy with 200 Ks. Right now, there’s too much risk to expect that. It could happen. Stranger things have. For instance, I have a Master’s degree and I’m writing about fantasy baseball. Want even stranger? I have a Master’s degree and I had Google to make sure it wasn’t a Masters degree with no apostrophe. I’m still not sure. I’m smart, y’all! 2015 Projections: 11-12/3.94/1.35/183
73. Kevin Gausman – Time permitting and Gausman will get a sleeper post. His major league numbers thus far could be thrown out. He had a 7 K/9 and a 3 BB/9, and those are nothing special unless you like round numbers. His minor league numbers are sweet, sweet can; sweet, sweet, can and he’s plenty young enough to reach that potential. Oh, and he averages 95 MPH. Yeah, he could be a top 20 starter next year, and I’d grab him in every league. 2015 Projections: 9-11/3.42/1.29/168
74. Carlos Martinez – As I’ve mentioned before, I don’t look at other rankings prior to me ranking. It helps to eliminate bias. This has an unavoidable drawback. Sometimes I’m high on a guy Cheech and Chong-style. I want, want, want them! Then, I rank them where they should go in the big picture and I realize that I won’t, won’t, won’t get them! I don’t know this for sure when I’m ranking, because I’m ranking in a bubble. (BTW, if you live in a bubble, do you have to dust?) I bring this up now because I want Martinez, but I have a feeling others will be higher on him than I. This is, of course, fine, and I might be wrong. It’s just a feeling I get. If I thought Martinez would throw 200 IP, I would’ve moved him up about 20 spots. He’ll prolly end up earning top 40 starter value anyway, but that will be because he gets 30-something innings in the bullpen and his K-rate will be boosted by those reliever innings. It’ll be interesting to see how hard the Cards push him, innings-wise. In any case, his stuff is labeled TNT (Throwing Nasty Things). 2015 Projections: 8-6/3.09/1.27/124
75. Jeremy Hellickson – Look at me making history by liking Hellickson for the first time ever. When he was traded to the Diamondbacks, I said, “The best way to eat a banana is if it’s dipped in chocolate. Dipping a banana in chocolate is the baseball equivalent to pitching for the Padres in Petco. Hellickson was just dipped in melted carob chips. He’s better than he was, but it’s not chocolate, and after a while there’s gonna be a funky aftertaste.” And that’s me copying and pasting me! I decided to loosen my reins on the Hellickson hate. I’m in love with pitchers in the NL and especially the NL West, so I can’t argue with myself and not like Hellickson. Yes, you can! No, you can’t! Yes, you– Okay, break it up, Greys! 2015 Projections: 11-13/3.71/1.31/142
76. Ian Kennedy – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until top 100 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Are you drafting for an ESPN Classic fantasy league?” In fairness to this tier, they have better odds of being better than the tier above them, but this late in drafts I want upside and not the corpses of former top pitchers. In deeper leagues, I could see bumping this tier up above the previous tier (think 15-team leagues and deeper), since you really have scraps on waivers and need the innings. As for Kennedy, the Reds pitcher J.J. Hoover says Kennedy is addicted to painkillers, is secretly a Communist sympathizer and is having an affair with a top Hollywood starlet. 2015 Projections: 12-10/3.87/1.31/167
77. Mike Minor – Kennedy was better last year, Verlander has more name value, but one guy that I seriously considered moving out of this tier was Minor. He’s only 27 years old, and he wasn’t right last year. He could easily bounce back. Then again — NO, NOT THE THEN AGAIN!!! — there’s so many pitchers, why bother hoping for a bounce back? Rhetorical! 2015 Projections: 10-13/3.89/1.26/142
78. Justin Verlander – So many things wrapped up in Verlander that it’s hard to know where to start. First, he’s a great example of what happens when a pitcher loses velocity. Second, this is why you want to veer towards younger pitchers. Third, there’s no third. Fourth, when you see a decline in stuff, you don’t go hoping for a bounce back, you let someone else take on the risk. Fifth, he takes great selfies. Sixth, he wasn’t unlucky last year, he was bad. Seventh, ate-th ninth. Tenth, the signs of him being bad were showing in 2013. 2014 was just the natural progression of an aging pitcher. Eleventh, there wasn’t really a third, seventh, eighth or ninth so why would there be an eleventh? Twelfth, drummers drumming. 2015 Projections: 14-10/3.97/1.35/162
79. CC Sabathia – Pretty much what I said about Verlander, but he doesn’t take great selfies. He could change that if he starts dating Kim Fields. Tootie meet Too Many Rooty Tooty Fresh ‘N Fruities. 2015 Projections: 13-12/4.04/1.39/171
80. Doug Fister – I don’t care what his ERA was last year. It was 2.41. Okay, so I care a little. More importantly, what was his K-rate? Go ahead, look, I’ll wait. Damn, what’s taking so long?! Sorry, I’m on edge; too much coffee. Is that okay with you?! His K-rate last year was 5.38. Bronson Arroyo just played a sad song on his guitar in honor of Fister called, “I’m Sorry To Fister,” and Gloria Allred is suing. Here’s the thing, if Fister doesn’t have an extremely solid ERA again, he will be absolutely useless. And, with a 5-something K/9, I mean useless. 2015 Projections: 13-9/3.59/1.27/129
