The top 40 starters for 2025 fantasy baseball fall roughly in the 75 to 125 overall for those of you who are wondering where we are overall, and, of course, when the rankings are done I will be along with a top 500 overall to show you exactly where we are. Think of this set of starters as your number twos and number threes, but, again, I will have a pitchers’ pairing tool to help with that too. I give and you receive. Ho, ho, ho, that’s me giving and you receiving.
Also, Razzball Subscriptions are up and running, and that comes with our online Fantasy Baseball War Room. Here’s Steamer’s 2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2025 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. All projections included here are mine, and where I see tiers starting and stopping are included. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2025 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
NOTE III: Watch us discuss starters one thru 40.
RETURN TO THE TOP 20 STARTERS FOR 2025 FANTASY BASEBALL
21. Pablo Lopez – This tier started in the top 20 starters. This tier ends here. I called this tier, “Wearing flip-flops with socks.” As for Cole, aever seen a guy who is more about his pitch mix than anything else. He lowered his walk rate, i.e., fine-tuned his pitches, and gave up more homers than at any point in his career. His .309 BABIP seems high until you remember what I literally just said and realize he was getting his shizz rocked. Why I say he seems pitch-mix-fixxy is because if I were him I would simply stop throwing a sinker that had a .426 BAA. Mechanics? Maybe, I don’t know, and I don’t think it matters. As I’ve said before, people who diagnose issues with pitchers or hitters do it as a party trick. “He’s not following through with his lead leg?” Cool, who cares if he’s not able to fix it? I am able to see he threw his sinker with horrid results, but if he can’t see that or won’t stop throwing it, who cares if I can figure out the issue? My point with Pab-Lo is he’s fixable, but, as it stands, he’s a 180-inning, solid strikeouts guy who can’t limit hard contact and thus has bad results on ratios. 2025 Projections: 13-9/3.77/1.17/203 in 188 IP
22. Bailey Ober – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Gray. I call this tier, “Bon varyäge.” The tier name is what you say when you’re taking a number two in a fancy joint. You want a cheap number one? Well, that ship has sailed, but how about an expensive number two? I will go over how to draft starters when I do my pairings post, but this tier is essentially when you think your number one might be a little weak, and you wanna bulk up on a strong number two.
As for Ober, the difference between him and Pab-Lo is such a small skosh that they really should be in the same tier. The separation is a hair. You remember hairs, the stuff you shaved off your arm and pasted to your head. Ober and Pab-Lo’s stats are so similar that I had Pab-Lo’s player page open and closed it, then opened Ober’s and thought I accidentally reopened Pab-Lo’s. Though, that might illustrate how dumb I am. Hmm, maybe it was *pinkie to mouth* an Ober-share. Hashtag nailed it! Why did I put Ober below Pab-Lo, but in a positive tier is because Ober seems to be getting better and Pab-Lo worse, but fractionally. 2025 Projections: 13-8/3.69/1.09/184 in 176 IP
23. Logan Webb – I know ERA is not a predictive stat. I am not a complete idiot. But–he yelled–But! Webb’s ERA is 3.42 in 855 1/3 career innings. An 8-ish K/9, solid command guy who allows zero homers has solid value. Webb is also a great illustration of my greatest contribution to fantasy baseball that no one knows about and hence never credits me for: the lifetime ADP rule. This rule states that while a guy is in his prime he has the same ADP give or take a round or two depending on his previous year. Last year, Webb’s ADP was around the 10th best starter off the board and the year before he was around the 21st best starter and this year he’s around the 28th best starter off the board. Has he actually changed at all year after year or was he always the 22nd best starter masquerading as better or worse? Think you know what I think. 2025 Projections: 13-10/3.48/1.12/176 in 202 IP
24. Zac Gallen – He missed two months last year, due to a hamstring, and had basically the same stats he has every year that finds him in the top 20 starters, so, yeah, this is free money. A note about starters in general: I think there’s so many starters who are decent that people just can’t draft them all high enough. For unstints, is Gallen going into this year that different than last year when he was drafted as a top 10 starter? He’s not. Last year, he was the 9th starter in drafts, this year he’s being drafted around the 40th. He’s pure profit. The only reason he’s not being drafted higher is there’s just a ton of guys to draft and some guys fall through the cracks. 2025 Projections: 15-7/3.59/1.16/193 in 187 IP
25. Bryan Woo – Think a bunch of people are scared of young starters. I noticed this after seeing Woo and Schwellenbach’s ADPs. Are starters with less innings on their arm really worse? I don’t think so. It doesn’t make them good, just because they’re young, obviously, but Woo is woooooo through and through. If you’re worried about his forearm, that issue was in June of last year, he missed only one start and he returned with no velocity issues while looking fine. His hammy knocked him out even longer. In 121 1/3 IP last year, he allowed 13 walks. You can’t just trip into that by accident. Check this: He had the 2nd best percentage of pitches in the zone (58.8%) behind only Justin Steele (59.5%) but Woo has a better Z-Swing% and less Contact (78.5% vs. 79.1%). His BB% was the best since 2016, when Kershaw beat him (2% vs. 2.5%). I get the concern that he won’t give enough Ks, but if you’re worried about that, draft a high-K reliever and strut around like Ric Flair at your drafting with WOOOOOOOO. 2025 Projections: 10-8/3.33/0.97/136 in 154 IP
26. Sonny Gray – Every year I say some variation of, “Sonny Gray is much better than his ranking, but he’s never drafted anywhere close to this high, so I’ve ranked him here and you should draft him here,” and his career numbers: 3.51 ERA, 1.19 WHIP and a 8.9 K/9 in 1737 1/3 IP. No idea why starters like Logan Webb fluctuate up and down the ranks with essentially the same numbers and Sonny Gray is never drafted anywhere close to quote-unquote high, but here we are once again. He’s coming off a year when he had a 11 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9 and I see him drafted after Shane McClanahan who hasn’t pitched in what? Two years? I see him drafted after Tyler Glasnow, whose last update was “His elbow seems good as new, we think!” And drafted after Joe Ryan whose last update was, “He can sorta lift his arm.” Also, if you think this ranking is too high for Gray (Grey), Sonny was the 17th best starter last year on the Player Rater. I don’t know why everyone hates Gray. Maybe it’s his gorgeous hair. 2025 Projections: 12-10/3.56/1.13/186 in 164 IP
27. Tanner Bibee – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Pfaadt. I call this tier, “Get fitted for a tuxedo shirt now.” After the season, there’s gonna be so much excitement and congratulations rolling in from your fantasy baseball championships, you won’t have time to get fitted for your tuxedo shirt then, so now’s the time. This tier is gonna get yo’self some championships. This is the tier where you’re going to win or lose your league. These are the starters I am most excited about and will be drafting repeatedly without caution over and over again and again, same sentiment, same sentiment, same sentiment! I love all of these starters. At least three of these guys will be in the top 20 starters next year. Also, you might find yourself thinking, “Yo, Grey, if I were a female or into males, you and I would snog, but some of these guys are ranked way too high.” That’s fine, draft them when you need to, i.e., look at their ADP and draft them a round or two before that.
To help with my pitchers’ pairing tool update, I’ve kept most tier names the same (you’ll get over your outrage), and looking at this tier of “Guys I Gotta Get!” is just exhilarating. I feel like I have Viagra rushing through every extremity. My thumbs are hard. I cannot express to you how happy each of these guys makes me. People out there drafting a fading Gerrit Cole and I’m taking Bibee and Brown, and gonna take all that hoo-ha to the bank.
As for Bibee, already gave you my Tanner Bibee sleeper. It was written while pounding my fist on the wall to turn a jukebox. 2025 Projections: 14-7/3.30/1.10/191 in 180 IP
28. Hunter Brown – Really nailing these rankings this year. Feeling real good about them. I’m gonna draft perfectly. Which is what I think right before seeing Brown’s ERA was 3.49 last year, but he had slightly better peripherals the year before when he had a 5.09 ERA. You know walk-up music? Well, telling you Brown had a 5.09 ERA with similar peripherals is wake-up music and that music is just farting. Do not get too comfortable. No one’s safe from the BABIP Gods! The LOB% Gods will destroy you! The HR/9 Gods pity you, you damn fool! With all that said, Brown might’ve got a sleeper from me if I had more time, because his stats are progressing perfectly. All I’m saying is starters are risky, even if they seem perfect. Draft the guys I say confidently, but shizz will go sideways, in the least imaginable ways. 2025 Projections: 13-9/3.55/1.24/184 in 172 IP
29. Jack Flaherty – Signed with the Tigers. If you were to remove his injury history and all anecdotes about his shoulder falling off or elbow dislodging from the arm-bone, and just look at Flaherty’s stats, they’re some of the prettiest in baseball, which is why the Dodgers will be trading for him in July. Or the Yankees, if they get less stringent doctors, or the Mets or…Well, only three teams are actually competing this year. A 10.8 K/9, 2.1 BB/9 is gorge. It’s basically Crochet, Snell, Skenes, Sale, Glasnow, Gray (him not me) then Flaherty if you were to remove narratives and just rank based on peripherals. With Flaherty, the narrative is not fully healthy, so draft him, but with the narrative in plain sight. 2025 Projections: 12-6/3.02/1.05/161 in 144 IP
30. Freddy Peralta – I mention below in the Nola blurb how people need to block out the times they rostered Nola in the past in order to keep drafting him, or have never rostered him. Well, I’m here to tell you I have Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind’ed the entire season Peralta just had for me on multiple teams. Was he bad at times last year? I doubt it! Don’t believe you! Starts where he absolutely killed my teams? Haha, you’re making that up. Good try though. I love playing this game where you tell lies and try to convince me FreddyKBB was a disaster for me for months at a time. I don’t even understand how his splits say he had three straight months of a 4+ ERA. Doesn’t make sense to try to lie to me like that. I won’t believe it! All I see is excellent strikeouts, and a 3.68 ERA. Not sure how you came up with all those other lies, but good try! 2025 Projections: 12-9/3.61/1.15/207 in 177 IP
31. Jared Jones – I’ll be along in a few with a pitchers’ pairing tool, but, yo, I want to draft every guy in this tier. Jared Jones’s 1st half before tiring out: 91 IP, 3.56 ERA, .220 BAA, and 2.7 BB/9 with comparative K-rates on both sides of the half. People forget how dominant he was in the first half, but what people forget even more so? That you are 100% better off having a starter who is good in the first half than 2nd. This is forgotten every preseason. If you have a guy who is good for the first three months, you run out to a lead in your league, then when the guy gets hurt (as Jones did in July) or just skipped to limit their innings in the 2nd half, you replace him with a streamer or someone else off waivers. If Jones can’t go through September this year, and only gets to August, who cares? UPDATE: Removed from rankings, due to a sore elbow. 2025 Projections: 9-11/3.79/1.15/172 in 159 IP
32. Tyler Glasnow – The most recently imaging on his elbow showed that it was fully healed. Whew. I’m sure throwing a baseball 99 MPH won’t hurt it at all this year. Wait, this is a positive tier, but I’m hating on all injured pitchers like always and forever. It’s my go-to! Yeah, I hear that, but I’m making an exception for Glasnow because he never throws more than 135 IP, and he still manages to find value for himself. There’s a ton of injury caveats here, but if you’re down to clown, let’s pile into a too-small car. You’ll also see me letting up a little on my hate for injury-prone starters this year. That’s because very few starters throw 200 IP. Get 130 innings that are gorge and find the rest of the innings from streamers. What about deGrom? Guys who might not throw 50 IP are a different story. Plus, his price. 2025 Projections: 10-4/3.43/1.01/161 in 129 IP
33. Carlos Rodon – He was the 24th best starter last year with 16 wins and 3.96 ERA. $8.3 of his value came from wins, so this is a bit risky to think he’ll return more value with less wins, and I was initially not in on him, but the more I looked at his stats, the more I liked him. He does give up a few too many homers, and that’s not going to get suddenly fixed in Yankee Stadium, but his command was way better last year, and maybe it took maturity for him to figure out how to pitch vs. just throw, but even that’s kinda unfair, because three of his last four years were 2.37 ERA, 2.88 ERA and 3.96 ERA. There’s one disasterclass year in there (6.85 ERA), but that was in 64 1/3 IP, and it feels silly to hold one year in higher regard than his other three. Haven’t been in on Rodon in some time, but bring him on. 2025 Projections: 13-9/3.86/1.19/202 in 179 IP
34. Justin Steele – Basically in the same boat as Gallen, Steele missed time, due to a hamstring, and still basically had the same stats he always has when people loved him. Only difference is Steele did have some elbow tendinitis in September, so that’s a reason for some concern, and why he’s ranked down here vs. up there by Gallen. His velocity was off in his game back in September, but depriving one’s self of a possible solid number two or three because of five random pitches in September seems overaggressive. I reached out to Cubs reporters this offseason to ask if they heard about any concerns on Steele’s elbow, and I was given zero reasons to avoid him. Just keep in mind, I will lower Steele in March if there’s any red flags, but I can’t see any reason to be worried right now. 2025 Projections: 11-9/3.27/1.13/154 in 151 IP
35. Brandon Pfaadt – Already gave you my Brandon Pfaadt sleeper. It was written while counting The Big Bang Theory spinoffs. 2025 Projections: 12-7/3.72/1.14/191 in 187 IP
36. Luis Castillo – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until top 60 starters. I call this tier, “Raining cold water on the pants tent.” This is just a tier of guys who could be good, but Redd Foxx would call you a big ol’ dummy if you drafted any of them. Ain’t no thing in my chicken and wing combo, but, hell, if I’m paying full price for any of these guys. I am ye of little faith while listening to Faith No More after ripping Faith Evans out of my Word Up magazine, while guessing LIARS every day for Wordle. I’ve given you so many starters who I like up until this point, I’m just taking a little breaksie and giving you some starters I’m out on.
As for Castillo, last year’s tier that I told you to avoid in this same area was Walker Buehler, Cease, Greene, Musgrove, Ragans and Senga. Three were solid, three terrible. That might seem like an L, but as I said with how I felt about Ragans and avoiding him, I’m taking 50% correct as a victory. Hit .500 and you’re going in on the first ballot. As for Castillo (for real this time), most of the guys in this tier are PITAs because they had arm injuries. Sheesh, there’s a ton of them, right? (Yes, that was me jamming a bad shish pun in because of PITA.) While a lot of guys in this tier are arm-injury concerns, Castillo is not. I don’t like him, because of his stats. Lowercase yay for him. His Ks were way down, his velo was down, and his trends scream downward. Maybe he can stave complete collapse for one more season, but I don’t think the price is factored into that enough. Ya know I love M’s starters too, so this wasn’t an easy call for me. 2025 Projections: 10-10/3.89/1.21/166 in 172 IP
37. Max Fried – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Signed with the Yankees for eight years making this screenshot an NFT collectible:
having the weirdest cravings
— Razzball (@razzball.bsky.social) October 16, 2024 at 9:59 AM
So, eight years, let’s see what we got here with Fried: One to two years for the first Tommy John surgery recovery, one to two years for pitching well, one to two years for pitching terribly as an over-the-hill vet and one to two years for pitching well after everyone counted him out and how many “one to two years” is that? Between Rodon, Cole and Fried, the Yankees have enough elbow tendons to make one pitcher. Would I be giving out a long-term contract to Fried? I wouldn’t draft him in a redraft league! I would prefer Clarke Schmidt if I were the Yankees. Though, they’ll likely get both since Fried can’t throw a full season, can he?” And that’s me quoting me! 2025 Projections: 13-9/3.49/1.11/154 in 158 IP
38. Hunter Greene – After loving him when he was first called up, I’ve been down on Greene in the non-sexual way for two years in a row. Sucks, and there’s no real profound reasons, and you can likely guess why. He missed a month at the end of last year with elbow inflammation, and I just can’t get in on that. He returned to throw two games at the end of the year, and his fastball velocity, usually at 98 MPH, was at 96.6 and 97.2 MPH in the two games, respectively. Actually, I really like Greene, if he were 100%, but I can’t risk it. Whether there’s a biscuit involved or not. Also, for those reading this in March, that’s nice that his velocity looks good in Spring Training. Can you tell me how his velocity is in June? Also, not to cause too much alarm to the faint at heart, but look at this:
That was the top 20 velocities for 2023. So, how many starters actually made it through 2024 when they were in the top 20 for velocity the year before? Ragans, Severino and Castillo? Three? Am I missing anyone? Mason Miller doesn’t count; he became a closer. I’ll give you Hunter Greene, since he made it to 150 IP, but he even had arm issues. That is a pretty pathetic list for who threw innings in 2024. I don’t know what to tell you, but if you see the top 20 velocity guys and think throwing fast is a great thing, I think you might be getting a commission from Dr. James Andrews. Projecting Greene for 137 IP, and that might be wildly optimistic. 2025 Projections: 6-6/3.72/1.14/159 in 137 IP
39. Joe Ryan – The latest news on him was “(Ryan) has made good progress from the shoulder injury that ended his season in August last year,” and you wouldn’t believe how fast he fell in my rankings. I’d be LYIN’ if I told you I was drafting RYAN, he rhymed like Nipsey Russell, and I just saw Nipsey Russell died 20 years ago and I melted into a puddle of old. 2025 Projections: 7-4/3.81/1.09/127 in 121 IP
40. Aaron Nola – I’m pretty sure everyone whoever drafted Nola has never rostered him before. He’s a headache. Call him Aaron Headache and take two of these and call me in the morning. Yes, I just handed you two Twinkies, so? If you don’t want them, give them back. [wrestles you to the ground] Stop! You’re going to squish them! All right, want real reasons? Fine! His Ks were down, he gives up an insane number of homers every year, his sinker sucks and he throws it 20% of the time! More like stinker! 2025 Projections: 12-9/3.91/1.22/191 in 196 IP
CONTINUE ONTO THE TOP 60 STARTERS FOR 2025 FANTASY BASEBALL
