[brid autoplay=”true” video=”377153″ player=”10951″ title=”2019 Razzball Draft Kit Starting Pitchers”]
The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2019 fantasy baseball rankings. That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies. It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown. I refuse to draft a top starter where they are usually drafted. Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth. Simple math tells us there’s plenty of starters to go around. Simple Math also says, “Stop putting words in my mouth!” Simple Math has an attitude problem. Simple Math says, “Try counting on your fingers without me!” In most leagues, there’s a ton of pitchers on waivers that can help you — all year. Not just in April. With the help of the Stream-o-Nator, you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest. There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck. Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to change, depending on which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can score runs. Finally, the best starters can give you four categories. The best hitters can give you five categories. As always, where I see tiers starting and stopping are included and my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball:
1. Max Scherzer – Went over him in the top 20 for 2019 fantasy baseball.
2. Jacob deGrom – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Snell. I call this tier, “Dan Hartman’s Greatest Hit.” By the tier name, I’m, of course, talking about the song I Can Dream About You by Dan Hartman. Daniel Earl Hartman was born December 8th, 1950 and died March 22nd, 1994, dying before ever knowing O.J. Simpson was a killer, unless O.J. killed him too. In Mr. Hartman’s short life, he graced our eardrums with, not just his greatest hit, of course, but the greatest hit of the 1980’s, 90’s and maybe 00’s, according to Soundscan and Moms. The song’s longing on a backdrop of an uptempo number typifies this tier because I can dream about these pitchers, but I can’t hold them tonight. Yes, I love the pitchers in this tier. They are great. There, I said it. But I will never own them. If you owned Aaron Nola, Trevor Bauer, Blake Snell, Patrick Corbin and Jameson Taillon last year, you would’ve walked away with your league’s pitching categories and not drafted any top starters. Am I cherrypicking? Yes, just like you could’ve cherrypicked last year’s pitchers based on my suggestions! You could’ve had Clevinger, Trevor Williams, Ryu, J.A. Happ and Miles Mikolas and not drafted one starter before 175 overall. I love top pitchers, but you do not need them. In some leagues, you could do fine NOT drafting ANY starters. Yes, I brought out the caps. I’m not only talking about H2H leagues where you can carry only relievers. I’m talking 10 or 12-team roto leagues where you can stream starters. Maybe you own one starter and stream five spots. Maybe you own two guys and stream four spots. Maybe you drink seven cups of coffee and stream all day. Even if you want to draft an entire rotation and hold them (or try to), you don’t need a guy from this tier. There’s plenty of options later to fill out your rotation so you’re competitive in leagues where you can’t stream. I’m not suggesting you Reggie Roby starters. I’m telling you to Reggie Roby top starters. Concentrate on your hitting while these guys are being drafted. By the way, this story from I Can Dream About You’s Wiki page is crazy: The original I Can Dream About You was sung by an unknown guy at Radio Shack, but the musical director of the album the song appears on says, “But then when Dan Hartman heard it, I don’t know what happened next, but I know that he took that guy’s voice off and he put his own on, and he had a hit with it. Hollywood is a very slippery place.” A guy from Radio Shack?! HAHAHAHAHAHAHA–breathe, Grey, breathe! I mean, holy crap. As for deGrom, he’s great yadda3. 2019 Projections: 16-6/2.66/0.95/264 in 218 IP
3. Chris Sale – Everything’s relative, as they say at 23andMe, and take this with a grain of salt, as they say in Charlie Morton’s household, but Sale’s 2nd halves have not been good dating back to 2015. His 1st halves are so damn good that it’s more than made up for them. Of course, last year’s 2nd half was just injured. I see an early sell candidate for July of this year. Or to misquote The Sixth Sense, I see dead arms. 2019 Projections: 15-5/2.41/0.97/246 in 171 IP
4. Justin Verlander – I was thinking about saying something to the effect, if Verlander’s made it this far, at the age of 36, I can’t imagine him ever falling off, then I remembered, we already saw Verlander fall off. In 2014, he looked like he got old. He threw 200+ IP and had a 6.95 K/9 and a 4.54 ERA, and seemed all but destined for the dustbin. If he continued that decline, would he be a future Hall of Famer? I don’t know, but, as miracles sometimes show up in the weirdest of places, covered by pine tar, he reemerged on the Astros. 2019 Projections: 16-8/2.88/0.97/276 in 207 IP
5. Blake Snell – Dan Hartman doesn’t even do my feelings on Snell justice when I think about how I won’t own Snell for about seven to ten years, until he starts to fall off. I’m holding a hand on a car window as rain drips down the glass, giving the impression I’m crying. Finally, I whisper, “Snell ya later.” 2019 Projections: 15-6/2.76/1.00/240 in 195 IP
6. Gerrit Cole – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Nola. I call this tier, “Butter deodorant.” You could use butter as thigh grease for when you wear corduroys or you could show that milk in your fridge what it could’ve been. Or use butter as substitute margarine. Butter chapstick? Sure! But butter as deodorant? Just not a good use of butter. Choosing a pitcher in this tier is butter deodorant. Just not a good use of a high draft pick. As for Cole, answer: You and me both. Question: Who’s surprised I ranked Cole this high? Sorry, I’ve been falling asleep to Jeopardy on Netflix and it has obviously affected me. Better than when I was falling asleep to a yule log. *shooting up in bed* “DO YOU SMELL SMOKE?” Cole’s Ks went up to 12.4 K/9, and it doesn’t appear to be an aberration. His swinging strike rate and velocity back up gains. All he needed apparently was to lose Ray Searage, the Human Wet Blanket. “Throw to contact,” says Ray Searage. I say, “Hey, Ray Searage, how about you shut the f*ck up?” Of course, this is all lip service since I don’t plan on drafting Gerrit. 2019 Projections: 16-7/2.81/1.02/254 in 204 IP
7. Corey Kluber – He feels on the precipice of a cliff dive. Maybe he’ll take a Cliff Lee dive and suck on the Indians, then get traded to the Phils and turn it back on. Either way, Kluber’s Ks went way down last year, his velocity fell a little and he started throwing his cutter an insane number of times. Thankfully, the pitch works well. Stop being modest, Kluber’s cutter! It’s the best cutter in baseball and one of the best pitches overall. So, yeah, he could be fine, but there’s a few light warning signs. Of course, none of this means anything because you should not be drafting a top starter. 2019 Projections: 14-8/3.03/1.01/224 in 219 IP
8. Aaron Nola – For full disclosure, I originally had Nola in the above tier. Again, doesn’t matter, won’t draft him, but Nola’s got one tiny problem, and not “tiny” like every ironically named man, Tiny, who could bench press an Xterra. It’s tiny tiny, but he threw 212 1/3 IP last year, a lot for him, and his September ERA was his worst month. 2019 Projections: 16-10/3.05/1.02/215 in 210 IP
9. Trevor Bauer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Carrasco. I call this tier, “The Foaming Lips.” No, not The Flaming Lips, it’s the Foaming Lips. This is not foaming lips like a blue waffle–DON’T GOOGLE THAT! SERIOUSLY. I WILL STOP THE CAPS WHEN YOU MOVE AWAY FROM YOUR GOOGLE. PROMISE ME YOU WON’T GOOGLE IT. OKAY, GONNA TRUST YOU. As soon as I went to lowercase you Googled it, didn’t you? Suit yourself, it’s your eyes you need to wash out. This is foaming lips like a rabid dog who wants to draft these guys. I will absolutely draft someone in this tier, but I won’t reach for them. If they make it to around 50 overall, or under $30, then I’d happily draft one. See, I don’t punt all starters, just the very top ones. As for Bauer, my lips are so foamy for him, I’m shaving the pink parts. Speaking of Google, whomever finds this post due to this blurb, is going to be wildly disappointed. Speaking of whomever, even if it’s used correctly instead of whoever, it sounds dopey, and I have no idea ever when to use it. Any hoo! Bauer! I might be foamy in the mouth like I just gurgled with Listerine because I loved owning him so much last year that I need more, but he’s a lot like Gerrit Cole in that none of his peripherals are pointing to a Geronimo back to earth. He is a giant douchenozzle IRL, but gorge for fantasy. 2019 Projections: 15-7/3.14/1.08/248 in 202 IP
10. Walker Buehler – Kinda don’t expect Bauer to fall to me in any leagues. Not expecting to see Corbin around either. Carrasco? You seem nice, but likely unavailable. Buehler though? I have expectations I’m going to decorate my fantasy team with him, yelling, “Ferris Navidad!” Here’s what I’m thinking with this ranking, I’m either absolutely bonkers to be ranking him this high because he can’t ever return this value or I’m ranking him exactly where he should be because he will return this value, and maybe more (see Snell from last year). He is young, but young isn’t bad for pitchers. Getting a pitcher before there’s a ton of innings on their arms is good. He had a 9.9 K/9 last year, but regularly was above 11 in the minors. Hey, it does go up to 11! His BB/9 was 2.4, which is impeccable command for someone his age with his Ks. If he can lower that below 2, you will see many, many Cy Youngs for Buehler, and maybe even a couple without his command improving. He was the 11th best value on his fastball, the 5th best in the league for velocity at 96. He also has a great slider. There are only three pitchers with a 10+ runs above average on a fastball with as good a slider as Buehler. Those three pitchers: deGrom, Scherzer and Buehler. He’s combined better with his fastball and slider than everyone else. Better than Sale, better than Bauer, better than…well, everyone! That’s my point. That I keep making. People often refer to pitchers as a horse on the mound. Well, I’m hitting the trail with this Walker! 2019 Projections: 15-6/2.82/0.98/198 in 174 IP
11. Patrick Corbin – Here’s what I said this offseason, “(Corbin) signed a deal with the Nats. I guess that makes him *pinkie to mouth* Nat K’ing Corbin. The Nats said this move would not preclude them from signing Bryce Harper. They said this after Harper said, “You’re not signing me.” Damn, Harper dropping truth bombs. I’ll drop a truth bomb now about Patrick Corbin, I called him a sleeper last year, and he went out and had his best season of his career. Any free agents out there want me to call them sleepers? I will take less than your agents. Actually, I’ll take whatever you’ll offer. Free Jiffy Pop? Done and done! I often go the Saberhagenmetrics route with pitchers, i.e., if they have a good last year, I don’t love them next year. Corbin, however, I still like. He added an above average curveball, and had the league’s best slider. These two factors helped a 90-ish MPH fastball be around the 25th best fastball in the league. Play off of an intense slide piece and everything is better. It’s kinda like how any song at a bar mitzvah is better after The Electric Slide.” And that’s me quoting me! Since I wrote that, I ran across this other stat that blew my mind: He was the lowest in the majors for pitches seen in the strike zone, and the best for making hitters chase. That means he is not throwing strikes, but the hitters have no idea. Yummers! 2019 Projections: 14-6/3.09/1.07/226 in 202 IP
12. Carlos Carrasco – Here’s you with a legitimately good question, “What makes you think you’ll be able to draft Carrasco after the 50th spot in a draft or for under $30 in an auction?” Here’s me shrugging. I don’t know, you and your smart questions! Maybe I can’t draft Carrasco. Just because I have foamy lips and they’re pulsating for sweet love (wow, WUT), it doesn’t mean I have to satisfy my carnal desires and draft a starter in this tier. I would, but it’s not necessary. I just loosened up your pitchers’ chastity belt in case your foamy lips are uncontrollable (seriously, I may just write the word moist 500 times for this tier). 2019 Projections: 16-7/3.14/1.10/234 in 202 IP
13. Jack Flaherty – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until German. I call this tier, “Adulting.” This could mean different things to different people. The first time your friends cancel on a Friday night and you’re excited to stay in and watch TV — that’s adulting. Excitement for decorative towels? That’s adulting! A meal not made in a microwave — adulting! Realizing a 401k isn’t someone abbreviating a Nolan Ryan season — adulting! (But, sadly, Nolan never had a season of four hundred and one Ks.) Appreciating dried fruit — adulting! Enjoying NPR and a glass of wine. It’s all adulting! Also, adulting is realizing you need to own a starter. I know, we have visions of being able to draft only a starter in the 15th round and streaming the rest, and maybe that could work, but it’s responsible to at least try for a starter. Plus, at a certain point in drafts, there’s not a ton of hitter options so you may as well grab a pitcher. Okay, more about how to draft a pitching staff in a separate post. As for Flaherty, he will get you everywhere, I’m told. Member what I said three blurbs ago or 17,000 words ago about top pitchers with the best fastballs and sliders? Flaherty has 20.4 combined runs above average, Buehler has 23.7, so right there. Flaherty is even better in some areas than Buehler. Flaherty is 13th best swinging strike rate, and tenth best rate of contact outside the zone. The top 10 is a who’s who of the best pitchers: Scherzer, Corbin, Bauer, Snell, etc. It’s not surprising to learn if a guy is forcing contact with pitches outside the zone, the contact is weak. In fact, his BAA was .198, tenth best in league. Top ten there is another dais of wonderful. Siri, what’s the big drawback on Flaherty? “It will often seem insincere.” No, goddamnit! His command was 3.5, which isn’t great. But in the minors it was much lower, and, if he can get it down in the 2.7 range, we gots ourselves another top 7 starter. 2019 Projections: 14-7/3.17/1.11/215 in 191 IP
14. Stephen Strasburg – I’ve been out on Strasburg for some time now, and, with where I have him ranked, I might not be able to own him this year either, but I’m going back in. From the sheer excitement of knowing I would draft him, Strasburg high-fived himself and tore his elbow tendon. Oopsie! As with any of these guys, but worth mentioning here, if a pitcher injuries himself in the spring, I could drop him without warning and no longer be interested in drafting him. So, 16 to 1 odds Strasburg doesn’t make out of March healthy? He’s turning 31 this year and has one year of 200+ IP. That is a jizzoke, but he was sidelined last year with a pinched nerve in his neck and pitched exceptionally well otherwise, even finishing strong when he returned. He was 13th for K-BB%, all top 13 are aces. Actually, case to be made top 30 in that stat are aces, and is one of my favorite stats. If you’re striking out guys and not walking them, good things will, and often do, happen. 2019 Projections: 15-6/3.08/1.09/186 in 164 IP
15. Mike Clevinger – Indians are currently blowing up their hitting with garbage trades, but their pitching is still going to be so good. Someone should make a movie about an Indians team that is making lopsided trades and trying to lose, but inadvertently wins. Not sure what we can call it. Something about major leagues should be in title. Let me know if you come up with anything. So, Clevinger, right, okay, let’s sort by pitchers who threw 200 IP and had the best K/9. Wow, Clevinger is 7th. I keed. Kinda. He was 7th best K/9 with a 9.3 K/9, but there were only 13 pitchers who threw 200 IP last year. Quite a time to be alive! Mike Alivinger! No? Okay. So, sorting by 150 IP, Clevinger is still top 23 for K/9, top 22 for Swinging Strike rate and 21st lowest contact percentage when swinging on all pitches. If you’re getting people to swing, and they’re not making contact, it’s kinda hard for them to suck. Jon Gray proved it’s not impossible, but it’s still hard. Worried Clevinger wore out last year from his innings? In the 2nd half, he had a 2.31 ERA and 10.3 K/9. This ranking might be a bit aggressive, but Mike Clevinger sounds like a horror film murderer, so there’s no time to be drafting scared. 2019 Projections: 14-7/3.16/1.10/209 in 204 IP
16. James Paxton – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Have you heard? The Mariners are rebuilding. Cool, but haven’t they been rebuilding for the last fifteen years? Also, is it the wisest decision to tell other teams you’re throwing in the towel in November? Is that like when you’re a girl and you make a vision board that says you’re going to get a boyfriend and you do? Or is it more like a guy who throws a PBR into a fountain and makes a wish to get laid? A girl can find a boyfriend if she’s available. A guy needs more than optimism, otherwise he’s going home with his hand. Guess what I’m saying is the Mariners are a bunch of jerkoffs. With that said, they traded James Paxton to the Yankees, who I do love, but how surprising is it that he’s 30 years old already? Surprising, right? Last year was the first time he threw more than 160 innings in a year. Walter Johnson, you are not. You’re not even Josh Johnson. His numbers, as always, were spectacular — 11.7 K/9 (4th in majors), 2.4 BB/9, 3.02 xFIP (4th). By the by, in his best career year for innings, he didn’t even qualify for those stats in the leaderboard. I had to sort down to 160 IP. Meh, 150 insanely good innings is better than 200 innings from an Orioles starter. Speedball guys don’t age great, but his velocity was still 95 MPH on average last year, which has been his norm, and he had the third best cutter in the majors (8.2), and the top 5 don’t have anywhere near his fastball. Corey Kluber, for unstints, had 16 wins above average on his cutter, and had a -7 fastball. Paxton had a 11.6 on his fastball. We’re talking elite stuff, obviously. The move to Yankee Stadium and AL East will deflate him a bit, but he can pitch anywhere.” And that’s me quoting me! 2019 Projections: 14-7/3.64/1.12/206 in 179 IP
17. German Marquez – Me, at some point in June, “I’m never drafting Rockies pitchers again…” pointing to my stomach, “…is what I want it to say on my ulcer,” as I pay a tattoo artist. Then, rethinking, “On second thought, Jon Gray will be paying for my tattoo.” This is going to be me looking at a Rockies’ pitcher in drafts: screaming The Toadies’ Possum Kingdom, “DO YOU WANNA DIE DO YOU WANNA DIE!” Then, whispering, “So help me, Jesus.” It was not my intention to go back in on Rockies’ pitchers after the Grayvesty, but I see the Nazi in Exile’s stats and I start homina-homina-homina’ing and I can’t help myself. German Marquez has the 9th best slider in the majors, and his curve is the 10th best. Last year, his K/9 was 10.6 with a 2.6 BB/9. That’s the 11th best difference between Ks and walks. He had the 8th best xFIP (3.10), hurt by a tad high homer rate and BABIP. Fairly negligible though. Or hairy negligee as my autocorrect wants to type. He had the 19th lowest barrels per plate appearance so BABIP could drop if people make poor contact. Also, he had the 11th best Swinging Strike rate with the 17th best first pitch strike percentage. So, ahead of hitters, producing swinging strikes, then if they make contact it’s not good. Or rather, overall, it is very good. Sadly, I have to apply White-Out to my stomach tattoo, I want to draft this Rockies starter badly. 2019 Projections: 15-8/3.52/1.19/236 in 202 IP
18. Noah Syndergaard – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 40 starters for 2019 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Wearing flip-flops with socks.” There’s just no excuse for wearing socks with flip-flops unless you are a Polish immigrant or you just took off your shoes and were asked to take out the garbage. Anywhere else with socks and flips-flops is strictly prohibited. That’s this tier, strictly prohibited. As for Syndergaard, I think the Mets were actually smart trying to unload him this offseason. Of course, they were asking a lot, maybe too much, but Syndergaard’s 2nd half is that of legends, if the legends we are talking about are the part of the map used to interpret a map and the map is of New Jersey and there was soda spilled on the map and because it is sticky it stuck to Chris Christie’s ass. That kind of legend! 2019 Projections: 14-8/3.34/1.17/178 in 172 IP
19. Luis Severino – Am I weighing 2nd halves too much with this tier? Yes and no. Yes, as in, I am weighing them. No, as in, I’m weighing them and I’m lying by saying, “No, I’m not weighing them too heavily.” Severino’s ERA was 5.57 in the 2nd half. I know, his xFIP was 3.06, and better in the 2nd half than 1st, but, like Jose Altuve always says, life is too short. I cannot draft Severino, and hope his luck corrects itself while sitting on a timebomb labeled, “Michael Pineda.” UPDATE: Shut down with shoulder inflammation. Damn, so far in my tier to avoid in the top 20 starters, Kershaw and Severino are sidelined; Greinke is goofy awful, but always stays healthy (which is what a prognosticator says right before said player is injured), so I need to go 4-for-4 in that tier to make sure my Noah Syndergaard schmohawk doesn’t look dopey. I docked Severino 20 innings from his projections and — surprise! surprise! — I still would not draft him. 2019 Projections: 12-7/3.42/1.16/173 in 161 IP
20. Zack Greinke – Out of curiosity, I sorted by fastball velocity for Greinke and curiosity killed the cat that was about to draft Grienke. Velocity isn’t everything. Ask the seniors at the mall rocking the Kawhi Leonard New Balance sneakers. “It’s not how fast you get there, it’s that you get there.” Great when you’re instilling self-esteem in a turtle, not so great for a pitcher who lost two miles of velocity last year. “Holding on by a string.” Great for an inspirational cat poster, not great for an aging pitcher. “That team around him is death.” Great for a pickup game in hell, not great for Greinke. 2019 Projections: 10-11/3.58/1.12/194 in 206 IP
CONTINUE TO TOP 40 STARTERS FOR 2019 FANTASY BASEBALL
