I’m gonna turn the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball to 100, because I love you as much as someone who has never met someone else can love someone. I did get mad when you did that thing that I don’t know about because I don’t know you. It wasn’t cool. But forgive and forget, as my Grandpa Joe says, even if he never forgave our neighbor for stealing his street cleaning parking spot twenty years ago, so there’s that. Now, it’s only fair I turn the outfielders up to 100, since I’ve turned the top 20 catchers for 2015 fantasy baseball to 31; the top 20 1st basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball to 51; the top 20 2nd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball to 41; the top 20 shortstops for 2015 fantasy baseball to 38 and the top 20 3rd basemen for 2015 fantasy baseball to 41. All the 2015 fantasy baseball rankings are there. As always, my tiers and projections are included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball:
1. Mike Trout – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
2. Giancarlo Stanton – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
3. Andrew McCutchen – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
4. Adam Jones – Went over him in the top 10 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
5. Carlos Gomez – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
6. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
7. Bryce Harper – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
8. Justin Upton – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
9. Yasiel Puig – Went over him in the top 20 for 2015 fantasy baseball.
10. Corey Dickerson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until here. I call this tier, “Young Rockie hitters are my BFFs.” Dickerson hit 32 homers one year in the minors (yes, Single-A), but he also had 13 homers in Double-A in only 67 games, then 11 homers in a half a season in Triple-A. That Single-A year was when he was 21 years old. Last year, as a 25-year-old, he hit 24 homers in two-thirds of a season for the Rockies. He can hit 30 homers in a season. Sure, sure, Coors, I know. But he hit 9 homers in away games. His lefty/righty splits aren’t amazing (.253 with 3 HRs vs. lefties), but as he sees more of them, he can make more adjustments and be average vs. lefties. As long as he keeps pounding righties, he’ll be fine. Finally, in an interview with Walt Weiss, the Denver Post asked, “Heading in to 2015, is Corey Dickerson going to still be viewed as a platoon player & sit against more LHP?” Weiss said, “We don’t view Corey Dickerson as a platoon player.” Sure, Weiss is constantly showing you his molars because he talks out of both sides of his mouth, but overall for Dickerson’s line it could be better if he sits against a few tough lefties. Dickerson is capable of 30+ HRs and 12+ steals. Look around, read the room, there’s not a whole of that anymore. Finally (have I said finally yet for this blurb? I feel like it’s going on forever.), you should have safe hitters with your first two picks, why not take a chance on a player with a floor of 20/5/.280 player that has upside for more? Rhetorical! If you think because you’d rather have a safer player like Kemp, V-Mart or Cruz, you don’t have to look far back in their recent past to find years they disappointed too. No one is completely safe. Okay, I’m seriously done now. (Fine! One last thing!) Yes, I want Arenado and Dickerson on every team. 2015 Projections: 82/26/84/.293/10
11. Carlos Gonzalez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Cespedes. I call this tier, “This tier or that tier.” That should lead you to say, “Which tier, Unkie Grey?” Which would lead me to say, “This tier, Nephew.” Which would lead you to say, “Can I borrow your car?” Which would lead me to say, “Got a hot date?” Which would lead you to say, “I’m only twelve.” Which would lead me to say, “Then you can’t drive my car.” Which would lead you to say, “Too late. I’m in Commerce heading to the casino with a fake ID.” Which would lead me to say, “Hello, I’d like to report a stolen car.” Then when you’re forty, you’d laugh and urinate on my grave, which is in your bathroom because by the time 12-year-olds are 40 there won’t be anymore room for cemeteries. Good times! What I mean by the tier name is I struggled with how much I wanted all of the guys in this tier and I nearly dropped all of them into the next tier of guys I definitely do not want. Everyone in this tier (and the Hamilton tier) feels like they’re headed for different levels of disappointment, but I was able to convince myself I’d either not draft them or I’d only draft them at a discount. As for CarGo, I might just take a corner man when he’s being drafted. I love him if he’s healthy, but Hayzeus Cristo is he ever healthy? Not to answer, but to ponder like a meditating Tina Turner at a mindfulness seminar. 2015 Projections: 77/22/81/.274/16
12. Michael Brantley – He is routinely going higher than this in drafts. That’s okay. I’ll let him go if the price is too steep. Last year, I loved Brantley. Told everyone to draft him. This year, everyone’s paying for his career year. This is normal protocol in fantasy baseball. Everyone’s always wondering how I know the guys that are overrated every year. It’s obvious. Take, for instance, one guy who doubled his career high in homers, stole six more bases than his career year and beat his next year’s highest batting average by forty-three points. Then look at that player’s name. In this case, it’s Brantley. I did one mock where Brantley went in the top 12. If that continues, he’ll get an overrated post. 2015 Projections: 87/17/92/.301/19
13. Jacoby Ellsbury – There was a post at FanGraphs, “Comparing Jacoby Ellsbury With Chase Headley,” and I swear to you, I spit out my coffee. You owe me a new monitor, FanGraphs! I wonder if the article, “Comparing Billy Hamilton With Joey Votto,” got shot down? How about, “Comparing Apples With Smurfs?” I wrote an overrated post on Ellsbury last year because people saw the move to New York meaning he was going to hit 25 homers and have a gazillion counting stats. I called for 13 homers last year and solid counting stats. He ended up with 16 homers and mediocre counting stats because the Yanks offense was putrid. So, he’ll have 15-ish homers and good steals with the counting stats still up in the air for 2015. Leaving us with the question, did the Yankees get that much better this offseason? They added Didi and A-Rod (Headley was there in the 2nd half when they still weren’t very good). The average age for their team is like 35 years old at a time when people are starting to think peak baseball years are between 25 and 26. Um, yeah, the Yanks are a mess once again. 2015 Projections: 86/15/79/.278/30
14. Yoenis Cespedes – Here’s what I said this offseason, “Yoenis is going to love Detroit. It’s the last city on earth that loves 1950’s American-made automobiles as much as Havana, Cuba. Last year, he hit 22 homers, which sounds about right. Crazily, his HR/FB% was only 9.6%. If you know the tiniest bit about batted ball profiles, you know that means he hit a crapton of fly balls. You’d be right. He hit everything in the air. No wonder he hit .249 in Oakland in 189 ABs last year. That park is a rectangle that is 500 feet to center and five hundred feet behind first and third base. The Tigers led the AL in Home BABIP, and had a virtually neutral for HR/FB%. What does all this mean? Yoenis was behind the eight ball in Oakland, better in Fenway and just fine in Detroit. Due to his growing propensity for fly balls, he could hit 20 homers or 35 homers next year. Fo’really.” And that’s me quoting me! 2015 Projections: 73/26/87/.254/7
15. Billy Hamilton – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Cruz. I call this tier, “Too rich for my blood, iron the numbers.” Unlike the CarGonzalez-led tier, I’m not even willing to take a chance on drafting these guys. Yeah, Billy Hamilton is fast. He just ran into your room, mussed your hair and ran out without you knowing. Look in the mirror, see?! I don’t care. You’re still adorable for a prematurely balding man. Last year on our Player Rater, Hamilton returned the 26th best outfielder season. Right above him, Melky and right below him Marlon Byrd. In other words, Hamilton is valuable, but not as valuable for as high as I see him being drafted. He’d need 70 steals and a .270 average for that. Doode never walks and strikes out a decent amount; he’s not hitting .270 without an insane BABIP. To play devil’s advocate — Hooha! Whoa… — if Hamilton gets 100 steals and is a top ten hitter overall in 2015, it’s going to be so exciting. Seriously, it would be fun to see that. But for fantasy, here’s how your league will shake out: you will have a 12 out of 12 in steals, winning the category by a plus-50 steals, except you will have a six in RBIs, HRs, average and finish in fourth place. 2015 Projections: 80/7/45/.257/65
16. Ryan Braun – Don’t see how I draft Braun again in his career unless he slips to around 120 next year and I take a gamble. Seriously, he looks like toast. And if he’s not toast, and bounces back this year, I won’t trust him next year either. Too many weird hand ailments (I don’t care that he says he feels healthy; players always say that shizz), too many hard to quantify issues from PEDs, too old. It hurts me as much as you because I’m half-Jewish and am from Jersey, so you know I love to hit the tanning salon and Brauns. 2015 Projections: 77/22/85/.261/13
17. Matt Kemp – Here’s what I said this offseason, “In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp played for one of the most popular sports franchises in the world in the 2nd largest city in the country. In San Diego, the Padre fans pride themselves not on wins and losses, but how well the Chablis goes with the brie while they watch the game from the picnic area. In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp went to all the hottest nightclubs. In San Diego, he’ll be frequenting places that look like the bar where Jodie Foster was in The Accused. In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp hung out with the hottest celebrities. In San Diego, “Hey, is that Natalie from The Facts of Life?” In Los Angeles, Matt Kemp dated Rihanna. In San Diego, Kemp’s dating Natalie. It’s only a mere two and half hour drive, but the culture shock is going to hit Kemp as soon as he arrives because he’s going to have to surrender his Lamborghini, there’s a town ordinance that everyone must drive a Jeep with no doors that they put plastic bags over when it rains once a year. On the backside of the site, I’m currently churning through rankings that will be coming in January. I nearly ranked Kemp higher than I want to admit to now. I was believing the 150 games played, 25 HR, 8 SB, .287 season he had last year. Whether I believe it or not, going to San Diego is going to hurt his value. From hitting in the middle of an All-Star lineup to hitting in the middle of Yellowstone. Kemp said on his first day in Petco, “It took some time to get my bearings. In other parks, you can set yourself in the batter’s box by using the outfield fences as a guide. Here, you have to assume the outfield fences are out there somewhere.” Kemp has money coming to him either way, so if he became a 20 HR, 5 SB, .270 guy for a few years, it wouldn’t surprise me.” And that’s me quoting me! That was written prior to the announcement of the arthritic hip, but that’s more of a real world issue further down the line of his contract. I’m not that concerned for 2015 that him and Larry King share similar bone density. 2015 Projections: 72/22/81/.276/8
18. Nelson Cruz – Quite the offseason for overrated guys. Here’s what I said on Cruz this past December, “You know the guy that was going to draft Nelson Cruz in your league because he just had a career year? The guy that drafted Chris Davis last year, Buster Posey the year before and Mitzi Gaynor in his 50’s pinup league back in 1953? That guy is the Mariners. (In fairness to that doode, Mitzi had a hell of a follow-up in ’54. Va Va Va Va Va Va — How many Va’s is that — Voom!) Nelson Cruz stayed healthy one other year, besides last year. He hit the most home runs of his career last year. He had the most RBIs, runs, strikeouts and will be 35 years old in 2015. So, of course, the Mariners give him a huge deal. Baseball team management is a peculiar thing. (By the by, I can’t say the word ‘peculiar.’ It sounds like I’m trying to pronounce the word for film in Spanish.) What seems obvious to the everyday person must not be obvious to baseball management. It would be fun to test this out in other areas of life. “Okay, baseball management, I’m going to bring you to the corner of the street. When the light turns green, cross the street.” Insert Batman-style sound effect. Only they’re doing it with nearly $60 million dollars. Well, ours isn’t to wonder why, ours is to figure out the fantasy value when a player changes environs. (Environs? Coolest word to write. Least cool word to say aloud.) Up until Cruz actually passed 27 homers last year, I had him pegged for 27 homers, because, well, that’s how many home runs he always hits, give or take a handful. Last year, he had big hands — that’s what she said! Huh? — but that was contingent on one big number that he had never reached before: 678. As in how many ABs he had last year. If a player has a pattern of getting injured and has a healthy year at 34 years old, I don’t buy that his health concerns are a thing of history. Call me a fool! (Not to my face.) In the past two years, his steals have dropped to the five-steal range, so he is essentially power. He has hideous numbers in Safeco for his career, but I don’t buy into that mattering because when he was in Safeco prior he was facing Mariners pitching and he was playing in an away game (sleeping in a hotel, chasing tail amongst visitor hoochie, etc.). Safeco isn’t going to do him any favors, but he can homer anywhere if healthy. That’s the stick in my craw.” And that’s me–Well, you know. 2015 Projections: 71/26/85/.262/5
19. Starling Marte – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2015 fantasy baseball. I call this tier, “Give me some lovin’!” This is the year to draft Marte. He’s 26 years old and coming off a season of 13 homers and 30 steals. Want a guy that is going to be overrated next year? Next stop, Wonderland! 17 homers and 30 steals is doable. 20 homers and 35 steals is doable. 25 homers– Okay, I won’t go that far. His home run distance last year? He averaged 402 feet. He wasn’t hitting wall-scrapers. His splits? He hit .288 vs. righties with 12 of 13 homers and .303 vs. lefties. Oh, and he’s a righty so no problem there. Caught stealing percentage? He stole 30 bags in 41 tries. That’s 73%. Billy Hamilton was only 71%. Strikeouts and ability to walk? Um, yeah, these aren’t terrific. He chased more pitches outside the strike zone last year and his swinging strike percentage went up a tad. Last year, he hit .291 with a .373 BABIP. Those are high. He’s more of a .265 hitter. He won’t kill you, but he’s not a .290 hitter. Finally, is he a 20-steal guy pretending to be a 30-steal guy or a 40-steal guy pretending to be a 30-steal guy? I’d side more with the latter (you know who doesn’t need a ladder? Gangly Manbird!). I don’t want to project 40 steals, but in 2013 he stole 41 bases and I could see him pushing 35 easily. So, homers are legit in the 15-homer range? Check! Steals legit in 30-steal range? Check! Won’t kill you in average? Check! Young enough there’s some upside? Checkmate, snitches! 2015 Projections: 79/16/70/.265/33
20. George Springer – This tier is filled with guys with high ceilings and low floors. Looking for the highest ceiling and lowest floor in this tier? Look no further. Springer’s either going to be Sharon Stone illegally smoking in a police interrogation room or Sharon Stone ice picking your heart out. Likely, he’ll be both within the span of two weeks. Think one week where he hits five homers, followed by a week where he goes 0-for-28 with 27 Ks. Last year he had a 33% strikeout rate. There’s been six seasons with that bad of a strikeout rate since 2000. Out of those, only Mark Reynolds hit above .240 in 2009 (.260) and he did it with a .338 BABIP (lucky). To put that in hip hop terms, in the Nas documentary on Showtime about Illmatic, there’s a high school picture of Nas and his buddies. Nas is the only one that’s not in jail or dead. Replace jail and dead with hitting above .240 and replace Nas with Mark Reynolds. Now, Springer needs to drop Illmatic and lower his strikeouts. 2015 Projections: 83/27/87/.238/16
