Third Base Ranks
Trends:
After the first four in my ranks, there’s a HUGE dropoff and then a cliff after like 8 guys. Luckily, the top four are all legitimate choices in the first or second round. Might need to reach on a guy somewhere or take the (legitimate) chance that Yoan Moncada rediscovers his mojo, or something similar. There’s very little upside here.
If you are still reading after I said something positive about Yoan Moncada, thank you so much.
Valedictorian:
1. Jose Ramirez: A little bit of batting average concern (.280 last year) and a little bit of power regression (down to 29 from 36) make me hesitate to take him as my cornerstone just because of the trend, but I’m probably wrong on that. He’s a legit guy to take as your first round pick.
All A Honor Roll:
2. Manny Machado
3. Rafael Devers
4. Austin Riley
If you’re drafting at the end of the first or anywhere in the second you really can’t go wrong with any of these gangstas. Might get a little flack for including Riley in this tier; guess what, he’s at the bottom of it. What was I supposed to do, put him in a group 20 picks below him? I would have a slight gap between Devers and Riley if you are picking nits. All of these are pretty standard ranks everywhere you look.
A/B Honor Roll
5. Nolan Arenado
6. Alex Bregman
B’s get degrees, right? Or is it D’s? C’s? I don’t really remember my stock response to bad grades on my report card. I like to think that these guys won’t hurt you unless you take them too high. You know what you’re going to get, which is solid but unspectacular production. Don’t go nuts and pick them over a good outfielder, but go ahead and roll with these guys.
FYI, there’s a sizeable gap between Arenado and Bregman. It’s not a situation where you get sniped on Arenado so you take Bregman the next pick. It’s more like you get sniped on Arenado, pick a different guy, go get a coffee, pee, change your Spotify playlist, wait, then take Bregman.
Skipping Class to go out for Taco Tuesday
7. Gunnar Henderson
8. Bobby Witt Jr.
This was my one detention in high school. Me and the guys drove off to a restaurant and skipped a study hall to go to an all you can eat taco lunch joint. Late getting back, and got busted. But in the long run, the upside just may have been worth it. That taco was enormous and filling. And then the detention was canceled after just five minutes!
I guess the lesson is, weigh the upside and the downside here. I could have had indigestion, detention forcing me to miss baseball practice, and got my keys taken away. Instead, I had a delicious lunch with friends and no real consequences. These picks could go either direction like that Tuesday in the 90s.
If you pick these guys, you are banking on improvement to make any profit on their pick. I’m particularly low on Bobby Witt. A five percent walk rate isn’t ideal, and his steals probably won’t stand out as much with the new pickoff rules. A .250 average and that could still go either way, in my opinion. Young guys to me, I fade unless their first season was so impressive you can’t ignore it. I’m purposely ranking him so I’ll never have to take him.
I love me some Gunnar Henderson. I’m taking him aggressively in a keeper, but in a redraft I’m finna pump the brakes a bit. He had a 26% K rate in Triple A, and reduced it to 25% in the big leagues. I do like him over Witt because of a superior lineup and a superior plate approach (12% walk rate compared to under 5%)
Basically, I don’t want to draft these guys as early as I need to in order to obtain their services. I might be a year late, and that’s okay. There is no way Bobby Witt has earned his draft position this year, and Gunnar is in the same boat.
Then we drop to D grades but they pass
9. Alec Bohm
10. DJ LeMahieu
11. Max Muncy
12. Matt Chapman
13. Brandon Drury
14. Eugenio Suarez
This is the “boring but steady vets” section if you miss out on the top tier. I don’t see a lot of upside with any of these guys but you aren’t drafting this tier for that. You’re going for straight steady numbers and knowing what to expect. Couple notes on roster construction with each, and what you would need to add as a result.
Bohm: need to add power
DJLM: add power
Muncy, Chapman, Suarez: Batting average killers (Chapman, I’m not taking him in a head to head either. He’s a matchup loser when he’s off)
Drury: runs, but he could get a ton of RBI in that new lineup, especially if certain guys in my next tier are healthy
After looking this over, I’m definitely avoiding this tier. There’s no reason to reach for any of these guys. I like the next tier better if you’ve missed out on a top guy.
Picking all B’s on a multiple choice test
I mean, there’s a plausible upside to each of these guys. They could easily jump up a tier, kinda like if a teacher makes a test and picks more B choices or something, you could conceivably get some profit on these guys.
15. Luis Urias
16. Ke’Bryan Hayes
17. Jose Miranda
18. Anthony Rendon
19. Eduardo Escobar
20. Ryan McMahon
Luis Urias, man, that guy has disappointed me. Yes, you, young man. You were a contact superstar with high averages in the minors, and you changed for power, and that power doesn’t even move the needle. Get back to the contact rate you understand me? You were a .306 hitter with a .394 OBP. Such a disappointment, you coulda been Jeff McNeil.
Eduardo Escobar, and I’m not making light of this, but he had some reported personal issues last year that are resolved. I’m hoping he’s fine, and then he could put up numbers like .250 with 20 HR again. Just keep in mind, they’re humans too, right?
Getting a copy of the teacher’s key
Upside, pure upside, but oh so deadly downside.
22. Jordan Walker
23. Josh Jung
24. Christopher Morel
25. Spencer Steer
26. Brett Baty (I was autocorrected to Brett Baby but he doesn’t play baseball)
It’s like this: These guys could all be lottery tickets (especially Walker, top five prospect) but of course, the downside is they are not guaranteed major league positions, so you could get burned. You do you with these guys. I’m generally risk-averse, so I’m going safer.
I realize there are other guys you may want to roster, and I’ll get to them later. I am contractually bound to limit my list to 25 people. I would not want to violate my contract by doing more work than stipulated.
https://razzball.com/top-20-3rd-basemen-for-2023-fantasy-baseball/ If you click this link, the esteemed Grey lists 54 guys from this position. That’s over one per team.
In the future, for all my corners ranks, I plan to have them as a list, with risers, fallers, things like that.
I am honored you read to the end of this article and hope you destroy me in the comments. I’m old, and my give a crap meter broke 3 years ago and was never replaced. I promise to change with data, and promise to own my mistakes of which there may possibly be one at some point, but I doubt it.
Bonus Content Alert!!!!! Corner Infield Draft Results
I did a mock draft on Yahoo, 12 teams. It was a good draft, everyone was there, and everyone stayed at least ten rounds. I thought it might help y’all to see in a random draft what round to expect these guys to be picked in.
Round 1: Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado,
Round 2: Bobby Witt for some reason, Rafael Devers, Austin Riley
Round 3: Nolan Arenado
Round 4: none
Round 5: Alex Bregman
Round 6: none
Round 7: none
Round 8: none
Round 9: Gunnar Henderson
Round 10: none
Round 11: Max Muncy, Anthony Rendon
Round 12: none
Round 13-16: Brandon Drury, Ty France, Eugenio Suarez, Matt Chapman, Jordan Walker
Rounds 17-20: Miranda, LeMahieu, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Ryan McMahon, Alec Bohm
May the force be with you, this is the way, and I have spoken.
