The last time I put out a rankings list was nearly 2 months ago as we were coming out of the All-Star Break. At that time, I was still hesitant to fully buy in when it came to players who have had unexpectedly good or bad seasons. Well, we’re running out of games to play, so maybe it’s time I come around on some players. As a result, you’ll see some fairly significant movement up and down this week’s ranks.
As always, feel free to drop a line in the comments to ask any questions you have about my player evaluations.
I am using NFBC for position eligibility, so it’s possible that other players may be eligible at 2B or SS on other sites. All stats are as of the end of day on Tuesday, 9/2. The players’ ranks in the July 10th article are reflected in the parentheses.
Top 20:
1. Bobby Witt Jr. (1)
Bobby Witt Jr. has fallen below expectations this season, particularly in HR numbers. Yet, he’s still the #7 player on the Razzball Player Rater, coming in at $32.70. While his contact metrics are down around 3 points from last year, that dip doesn’t explain the homer drought. His hard hit numbers are essentially the same as last year, as are his FB% / GB% / LD% numbers. To my eyes, the lack of HRs looks mostly like variance that may change due to a simple hot streak at any moment this season. Or it may wait to change until next season. But I have no concern about Witt being the player we know him to be.
2. Francisco Lindor (3)
Franciso Lindor spent all of June and July hitting just above .200, and his HR pace slowed by about 33%. Despite the extended slump, he was himself again once August came around, and his season-long numbers are right in line with his preseason projections. How do we not notice this guy going 30 HR / 30 SB every single year? Even when he’s off his game, as he was in June and July, he still produces at a high level (8 HR, 31 R, 26 RBI, and 7 SB over his two down months). Put this guy in R1 next year!
3. Elly De La Cruz (2)
Elly De La Cruz had a miserable July and August in which he hit a total of 1 HR. Despite the drought, he was still able to steal 10 bases and score 27 Rs in that time. Elly’s swing decisions make that two-month downturn a real possibility at any point, but his underlying numbers don’t give me any concern. And he still rates as the #13 overall player on the Player Rater, coming in at $29.80. And, just as a slump could happen at any time for Elly, so might an extended white hot streak.
4. Trea Turner (6)
It’s past time for me to stop underplaying Trea Turner’s season. I was worried about his health coming into the season, but he’s put together 610 PAs as we enter September. His surface numbers are ridiculous, putting him at player #12 on the Player Rater. Sorry, Trea, you’re in my top 5 finally.
5. Ketel Marte (4)
I suspect Ketel Marte will never put together a season of 650 PAs, but the PAs he gives you are full of value. He’s closing in on 30 HRs again while supporting it with a .292 AVG, identical to his AVG during last year’s monster season.
I faded him in drafts. I was wrong. And I’ll probably fade him next year, too, because of health concerns. I suppose sometimes I just can’t learn.
6. Gunnar Henderson (5)
I don’t really believe that Gunnar Henderson is outside the top 5 middle infielders. Like Witt, his lack of HRs this year has been super frustrating, but his hard hit data says he is who he has always been and that the HR slump is probably related to his early-season injury and statistical variance. I fully expect him to be top 3 next year in a fully healthy season, but I moved him down to allow for Turner and Marte to get their due.
7. CJ Abrams (7)
CJ Abrams will certainly have his moments of inconsistency, but his only real weakness appears to be the team that surrounds him. His low RBI total of 53 is dragging his value down, but it’s not his fault his teammates can’t get on base.
8. Zach Neto (10)
I am fully on board the Zach Neto fan bus. All of his growth as a player looks intentional and sustainable, making 30 HR / 30 SB seasons a reasonable expectation moving forward. He’s going to be expensive come draft season, and I’m going to find myself paying the high price for him more than I should.
9. Jazz Chisholm Jr. (8)
Jazz Chisholm has immense upside, and he’s demonstrating that upside with his big numbers. He’s already achieved nearly a 30 HR / 30 SB season and is on pace to finish with 80-85 Rs and RBIs. The issue is his plate discipline – or lack thereof. His problematic 27.4% K-rate is supported by a less-then ideal collection of contact metrics (highlighted by a Z-Contact% of only 76.3% and an even worse Contact% of 69.7%). Obviously, that type of plate inconsistency caps upside by limiting AVG potential and virtually guaranteeing slumps, and it’s the primary reason I’ve moved Neto above Jazz on this list. But his overall skill set makes me willing to put up with the inconsistency – when this guy is feeling it, he is fun to watch.
10. Brice Turang (23)
As I discussed in my August 28th piece, I am now convinced Brice Turang’s power gains are real. And that means Turang is one of the middle infielders I most want to roster next season.
11. Geraldo Perdomo (24)
It’s time for me to recognize what’s right in front of me: Geraldo Perdomo is a different player from what he was. I don’t know how real his growth is, and I’m not willing to believe his ceiling is as high as players like Oneil Cruz who is now ranked below Perdomo. And as I wrote 2 weeks ago, I suspect he may be overdrafted this coming draft season. But I have to stop trying to convince myself I wouldn’t play him over the vast majority of players on this list. I’ve even been playing him over Gunnar in one of my leagues – no, I’m not ready to rank Perdomo over Henderson, but I’ll play hot hand vs. cold hand at this point in the season.
12. Jeremy Pena (9)
Jeremy Pena struggled a bit once he finally made his August return from injury, but his lingering rib injury seems to offer an explanation. Although I’m a bit nervous that Pena’s breakout season may prove to be more mirage than we had hoped, his underlying stats make this year’s performance look sustainable. For now, I’m a believer that the changes he’s made are the new reality for Pena.
13. Maikel Garcia (13)
Maikel Garcia has put together a very strong season while playing for a team that we likely aren’t paying attention to. His R and RBI totals are down from what we might hope for, but Kansas City’s offense hasn’t exactly been in beast mode. Some of Garcia’s plate discipline changes make his high AVG looks sustainable, and increasing his FB% by over 7.5 points has made a difference in his power output. This guy looks like he’ll be fairly expensive next year in drafts, and I think I might actually be willing to pay that cost.
14. Oneil Cruz (11)
If you like scary stories, try reading Oneil Cruz’s stat line against LHP. It’s bad to a remarkable degree. The Pirates aren’t a serious organization, but if they were to decide to actually try to win, sitting Cruz down when lefties pitch is probably the way to go. His ceiling may be high, but if he is losing PAs that add up to a quarter of his playing time, it’s time to drop him down my list.
15. Bo Bichette (25)
Bo Bichette is currently the #39 player on the Razzball Player Rater (coming in at $23.40) and looks a lot like the healthy Bichette from 2022 and 2023. It’s time I reflect that in where I rank him.
16. Nico Hoerner (14)
Nico Hoerner offers a consistent supply of AVG and SB, and his R totals probably won’t hurt you at the very worst. That doesn’t make him an exciting player, but he certainly provides value with the things he does well.
17. Jose Altuve (15)
Jose Altuve’s August was disappointing: a .231 AVG, with only 8 RBI. But the 5 HR and 13 R were basically at an Altuve-level performance. A close look at his skills suggests age is catching up to him – he doesn’t hit the ball hard very often, and his EV is in the mid-70 mph range way more than you’d like to see of someone in your starting lineup. But he’s still obviously smart and is still able to use his diminished physical skills in ways that produce counting stats. The more I watch him, the less likely I am to draft him next year if he’s going in the top 100 picks. But if he’s on my current roster, I can’t be too upset with his surface stat contributions: 24 HR and 73 R will play. And even with the August lull, his .272 full-season AVG has still been overall helpful.
18. Jordan Westburg (17)
I could copy and paste my blurb from the last rankings list. In fact, I will:
The talent is clear for Jordan Westburg, but the injuries just won’t leave him alone. I’m afraid this season may not have the trajectory I expected, not because he isn’t good enough but because he can’t stay on the field.
He is supposed to start a rehab assignment soon, so his obvious ability keeps him on my list, but his continual state of injury keeps me from getting too excited. If we can get 3 weeks from him, that might provide a nice power boost down the stretch. Just get healthy, man.
19. Dansby Swanson (19)
By real baseball standards, Dansby Swanson isn’t as impactful offensively as the Cubs probably hoped they were buying when they gave him the big contract a few years ago (though his defense makes up for it). But in terms of fantasy goodness, he is still delivering. His SBs are down somewhat from last year, but his power results are better (his 21 HR put him in range of his career high of 27). His hard hit metrics suggest this might be a new approach for Swanson, sacrificing some OBP in favor of counting stats. As someone who rosters him in quite a few leagues, I’m a fan of the changes.
20. Jackson Holliday (16)
Jackson Holliday hasn’t yet become a hugely impactful player, but his Dansby-like stat line is certainly worth the price you likely paid to get him on your roster. He’s on pace to push for a 20 HR / 20 SB season with R and RBI totals that are at least not hurting your stat line. Although I’ve moved him down a few spots, I think his future is bright for sure.
Next 10:
21. Willy Adames (26)
22. Gleyber Torres (21)
23. Mookie Betts (18)
Mookie Betts showed some much needed signs of life in August, which, as a fan of good baseball, I’m really happy to see. But even with his August improvement in AVG (.288 for the month) and bounce back to solid R (19) and RBI (13) totals, his hard hit metrics are still lagging. They’re better than other points during this season, but nothing is showing me that we can look forward to the old Mookie making a return. I hope I’m wrong, but I honestly would play every player in my top 20 above him.
24. Trevor Story (N/R)
25. Brandon Lowe (N/R)
26. Brendan Donovan (22)
27. Matt McLain (20)
I still believe in Matt McLain’s raw skills and will probably roster him on a number of teams next year. But Tito Francona is telling us what he thinks about his maddening inconsistency: he is sitting more than I would like, and when he plays, he’s fallen down to the bottom of the lineup. He’s barely hanging on to the top 30 at this point.
28. Jacob Wilson (27)
29. Ozzie Albies (N/R)
Are those signs of life I see there, Mr. Albies?
30. Lenyn Sosa (N/R)
Players who dropped out due to injury and likely absence for most, if not all, remaining games:
Corey Seager (12)
Marcus Semien (28)
That’s my list for this week. We’ve reached the point in the season when rankings may not be the most helpful when it comes to waiver adds or playing time. But they’ll never stop being fun to think through.
Until next week. – ADHamley
Thoughts on these guys for next year Matt Shaw Luke Keaschall and Xavier Edwards 12 team dynasty 5×5 thank you!