Welcome to Razzball, here is your pitching menu for this morning and afternoon. First off, we have plenty of arms to choose from on the Early Bird Special but that stops serving shortly. I can and will go over the choices on there later if you’d like but for now, I’d like to talk to you about our special for this evening: Jake Odorizzi. For just $8,000, you get a delicious splits difference in that Jake has a 2.87 xFIP and a K-BB% of 20.4% on the year against left-handed bats. Given that the Mariners boast around seven of those in their lineup on a given night, this is by far the most bang for your buck that we have on the menu tonight and if you choose correct sides around it, he might end up being able to feed your whole family for, like, a long, long time. Why am I wearing a tight, sheer tank top? Um, *covers kids’ ears* Razzball is what we call in the industry a ‘Breastaurant’. Woah, don’t talk about my chest like that. It’s only this small because I haven’t landed my big gig in Hollywood yet to pay for the goods! *End Scene* – In all seriousness, Jake looks to be a fine cash game get for a very small slate of pitching on this evening and is probably my SP1 given the price and the ugliness surrounding him. In all seriousness part deux, we’ll be covering a bit of the mid-day/morning slate because I have a bigger window to talk about it. In all seriousness part triple, I tip my cap to all of those who have given their lives for us. Your service is never forgotten. But with that, let’s move on to what we came to do. Here’s my seething hot takes for this Monday’s DK slate…
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Why am I doing late before early? Heck, I don’t know, I just write. Figured we could pull the bandaid off for those who aren’t doing the morning roll and want to move on with their BBQs. Speaking of, let’s get this going…
Brett Anderson, SP: $7,000 – Well that got unsexy fast. Small slate, don’t playa hate! The choices for tonight’s cash games are both minimal and uninspiring. I wouldn’t expect Brett to light the world on fire – Atlanta just doesn’t K enough – but he should put up solid SP2 contributions and at this price, it’s hard not to see him as a nice, safe cash play.
Drew Hutchison, SP: $7,200 – But eff cash games, amirite? For part of my analysis when looking at pitchers to target, I’m not focusing on season stats at this point for teams. Do the Cubs and Astros still sit at the tippy top of K% on the year for teams right now? They sure do. But over the last seven days heading into Sunday, the White Sox had a 61 wRC+ and a 26.4% K rate. Those are no bueno stats. When you consider Kyle Gibson dropped 8 innings of 1 run ball and 8 Ks on them on Sunday, you get my drift a little bit more. If you’re looking for tourney upside, pass that Hutch.
Charlie Morton, SP: $6,500 – Mostly a groundball specialist, Morton could still give you 6 to 8 Ks against that Marlins squad. Main concern here is how long will the Pirates let him go in his first start off the DL. But if he does give you those 8 Ks, that’s top of the Morton to ya.
Russell Martin, C: $4,400 – Yeah, catching sucks. If you’re not overpaying for pitching, you can afford the top get. R-Mart has cooled of late but he gets Hector Noesi who no es good. Obvious stack is obvious. Consider Edwin Encarnacion, your three legged dog, Josh Donaldson, Lilliputians, Jose Bautista, Harvey The Wonder Hamster, and Chris Colabello all in play. If you’re not paying up, pick the cheapest one that’s not over $3K and fuggedahbawdit.
Pedro Alvarez, 1B/3B: $4,600 – It’s late May, time to get Pedro back in your LUs. No really. El Toro is your typical Snowbird…main difference being he’s not old…and can’t fly south for the winter…and is in fact a bull, hence the name but WHATEVS. The weather warms up and typically Pedro’s bat soon follows. Pedro has smacked 3 of his 8 HRs this season over his last 10 games. Lu u, warm weather.
Logan Forsythe, 2B/3B: $3,100 – Given the groundball talents of Morton and Dee’s slap infield single ways, I’m fine with giving him a gander but I would like to just point out the two-bagger who is hitting over .290 with 4 HRs and gets the platoon advantage. No, I’m not talking about Neil Walker. Can you not read bold font?
Josh Harrison, 3B/OF: $4,700 – Can ya tell I don’t mind picking on Phelps yet? To save time, the big OF bats of Marte and McCutch work for me as does Kang. Now back to Josh…Harrison has put things back in order and has been hitting at or near the top of the lineup for the Pirates of late. Harrison’s speed/power combo is a nice get at this price if you’re not going Donaldson.
Evan Longoria, 3B: $4,100 – Evan has a history of doing things against lefties. If you’re trying to cock block in a cash game, go Longo.
Joc Pederson, OF: $4,400 – Could be heating back up after hitting homers Friday and Saturday before joining Frias in the Dodgers abyss on Sunday. Welcome to the life of a hyped rookie. Gotta take the downs with the ups. We could be on the ups. Enjoy said ups. Pay for said ups.
Brandon Guyer, OF: $3,500 – If you really need to save money – and I don’t know why you should given the pitching prices but hey, I ain’t judging – Guyer has been batting lead off when there’s a lefty on the mound. He’s a total JAG (Just Another Guyer) but it doesn’t mean he can’t hit a bomb given his splits history.
Carlos Martinez, SP: $8,500 – The main problems for Carlos so far this year: left handed hitters and walks. The main solution: A Diamondbacks team that boasts, at most, 2 left-handed bats on a given night and a bottom ten walk rate vs RHP so far this year. Though their numbers suggest they don’t K too much as a team, talent trumps team stats sometimes. I’m more than willing to shop at C-Mart for the morning/all-day slate.
Bartolo Colon, SP: $7,200 – Bartolo isn’t even in shape for your office league softball team but he’s still out there tossing strikes. I wouldn’t consider Bartolo for cash simply because of this equation: Phillies bats putting the ball in play rather than striking out + Bartolo throwing FBs 85%/a sub-1 BB/9 rate = blowup central OR a CGSO with 49 pitches. As we know, math shouldn’t have more than one true outcome so he’s scientifically not a safe play. Random thought: When someone tweets about how ugly the pitching slate is for the day, should we consider it a Bartolo subtweet?
Tanner Roark, SP: $6,400 – This isn’t some infatuation from his 2014 stats going on here. Hell, I still don’t like him and didn’t last year. But what I do like is the K potential vs this Cubs team. If he went 5 and fanned 7, it wouldn’t surprise me.
Joe Kelly, SP: $6,000 – If you look at the Twins stats over the last few days just right, you think they are a target (24.9% K rate and 61 wRC+ over last seven). This is a slide nod to Mighty Joe Cy Young Kelly. Just realize the ISO makes this a dangerous go. Tread lightly and by lightly I mean, tourney only here.
Jason Marquis, SP: $4,400 – Now if you wanna get ‘let’s buy some angel dust, hole ourselves up in a dive motel with fire crackers, a gorilla suit, and jumper cables, and let the night take us where it may’ crazy with me, let’s talk about going from Rocky Mountain High to Rocky Mountain Low. There’s zero reason on the merits of Marquis alone that you should want to start him but pitchers facing teams coming just out of a series in Colorado can and will find success from time to time. Is Marquis the guy to find it? Based on his talent level, no, but if you’re building multi-LUs, consider Marquis as a ‘toss him out there and don’t watch the game’ guy.
Stephen Vogt, 1B/C: $4,000 – So a quick shoutout to the podcast that’s coming an hour after I’m done (that’s what she said?). We discussed Shane Greene and how he just can’t get lefties out. Enter, stage left, Vogt. And Josh Reddick. And Billy Burns. And Max Muncy. And…holy Yeezus, Shane is gonna get killed. I’m all about some hot A’s today.
Martin Maldonado, 1B/C: $2,600 – If you’re punting, I’d be looking at the Milwaukee options as Lincecum has some regression esplaining to do, Lucy. 2.4% HR/FB rate on the year? Miller Park don’t take too kindly to that nonsense. I wouldn’t go overboard with a full on Brewers stack but I’m fine with taking the big bats like Braun, Lind, and Gomez.
Wilmer Flores, SS/2B: $3,900 – I’m putting this out there: today is the day the Mets shake off their cold slump. Look, I’m not calling a Mets stack here but I’m not against sprinkling in a few of them as I build my LU. Severino Gonzalez only scares people who think his first name means ‘Sever’ in Spanish. Fun fact! It actually translates to ‘Seaver’. He’s related to Kirk Cameron! Now don’t you feel a little less worried? He’s a young pitcher suffering growing pains. Enjoy his misery.
Eric Sogard, 2B: $3,100 – A punting we will go. ‘Member the Greene splits? Exactly.
Mike Moustakas, 3B: $4,400 – Ball park bump, you say? The Moose is loose!
Chase Headley, 3B: $4,000 – *Looks up at Teix analysis…wonders why you need an explanation*
Brandon Crawford, SS: $4,300 – I know, he just came off a hot Colorado series and above I just said to attack bats coming from a Colorado series. To put it in the words and cadence of Seinfeld ‘Whaa-at…Is the DEEEal’. The deal is Miller Park is beddy beddy nice to lefties. You think Adam Lind just started hitting well just cuz? At this price point, few will be on him so he’s a great swerve from the lemmings.
Jonathan Villar, 3B/SS: $3,300 – Managers tend to be creatures of habit. The last time a lefty took the mound against Houston, Villar found himself in the 2 spot in the lineup and produced. If he’s there again, he’s a solid low end option as he offers speed and power potential at a position that usually offers one or the other…but mostly neither. Oh and I skipped it because it was obligatory: Jose Altuve. Cash game 2B. Consider this also a love sonnet to Gattis and Springer.
Jay Bruce, OF: $4,700 – Give me a bad pitcher against Bruce in Great American Ballpark and I’ll probably start him 9/10 times. Given the price, I’ll say he’s really more a tourney play but I do think he’s turning around. The Bruce is loose! Yes, I’ve already cracked that joke. It’s theming, bro.
Steve Pearce, 1B/OF: $4,300 – If he’s in, there’s a lefty on the mound which makes me tight in the pants and makes me not care if you’re a lefty or a righty if you catch my drift.
Nori Aoki, OF: $3,800 – REVENGE GAME! (But not really). Already mentioned this ballpark plays well to lefties, why you gotta drag me face down on the asphalt through Narrative Street, fam?
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
Ohio has a bit of a damp weather report as of Sunday evening as there are chances of rain and/or thunderstorms for the COLvsCIN and CLEvsTEX. Other than that, it looks fairly clear for all involved.
Doing Lines In Vegas
As of this writing, the CHIvsWAS has no opening line nor closing line. For whom the weather tolls is what’s going on. If the wind is blowing out, all my Roark bets are off and all the bats are on. Beware of the Windy City. It’s basically Coors which for most of the season sounds like an insult but I’m talking like, historical Coors and shizz. Outside that, Brett Anderson has a monster line at -195 which further backs the cash game suggestion. Similarly, they’ve moved the run line from 7.5 to 7 in the TBvsSEA game which puts in perspective Odorizzi but also says that maybe, just maybe, Elias shouldn’t be picked on.