All the final 2015 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for 2016 (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. But not entirely. To recapitulate, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. We’re (me) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2015 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Jake Arrieta – As you’ve prolly heard from me, I’ve bitched and moaned about my Tout Wars offense and how it cost me a championship. How was I one point out of first with one day to go in a 15 team league if my best hitter was Khris Davis (not misspelled)? Easy, I owned Arrieta. On our Player Rater, he produced $42.5 vs. the 2nd best starter, Kershaw, with $39.4. Value-wise, he was much better because he came at a much cheaper price than Kershaw on draft day. What’s more interesting — More interesting than what you’ve already written, how do you do it, Grey? Shut up, Random Italicized Voice. — Arrieta had $11.9 value in wins vs. Kershaw’s 5.9, so if you throw out the luck of wins, Kershaw was much more valuable. And Kershaw seemed like he had a down year. Any hoo! Back to Arrieta, he was gorge. To give you an idea of what $42.5 means. Think back to your draft when you spent $27 on Arrieta. Yeah, you got value. If you didn’t dominant your pitching categories owning Arrieta, I worry about you. Seriously, you should wear a life preserver when you go to the bathroom to make sure you don’t drown. Why did Arrieta led to more pitching dominance than a normal front tier starter? If you drafted Kershaw, you likely understood you had a lot of pitching, so likely didn’t draft another starter for a while. If you drafted Arrieta, you could’ve drafted a starter before him. For unstints, in my Yahoo Friends & Family league, I drafted Gerrit Cole then at pick 94 overall, I took Arrieta. Too bad I had C.J. Cron as my 1st baseman after trading away Bautista for Stressbird. I will now write the rest of this post with the banging of my forehead. Preseason Rank #15, 2015 Projections: 12-9/2.88/1.06/198, Final Numbers: 22-6/1.77/0.86/236
2. Clayton Kershaw – I kinda went over Kershaw in the above blurb, so let’s skedaddle. By the by, doesn’t skedaddle seem like it should mean to dawdle from one’s schedule? No? Okay, I’m going to take a nap. *shoots up in bed, claps hands* Let’s take on this day! Preseason Rank #1, 2015 Projections: 18-6/2.22/0.95/232, Final Numbers: 16-7/2.13/0.88/301
3. Zack Greinke – Okay, on the fo’realies, look at the final lines for some of these top pitchers. I was saying to Rudy the other day that on teams where I had Arrieta, Archer, Gerrit and/or Carrasco that I could not lose pitching no matter how much I tried with my streaming choices. I had entire months with an ERA under 3 on some teams. That’s 220+ IP and a sub-3 ERA. That’s insane. Greinke had a 0.84 WHIP in 222 2/3 IP. How do you lose WHIP with that on your team? If you owned Justin Masterson all year because you are mentally backwards, your WHIP would still be under 1.00 if you had Greinke. Preseason Rank #8, 2015 Projections: 18-6/2.95/1.13/212, Final Numbers: 19-3/1.66/0.84/200
4. Dallas Keuchel – I whiffed on Keuchel, along with many more hitters than I expected. I didn’t only miss on him in the preseason, but all season I figured a correction was coming. As I mentioned during one of the hitter recaps, strikeouts are the easiest to predict. They stabilize relatively quickly and don’t usually change a ton, especially not for a guy who tops out at 89 MPH. Taking a look at his numbers to figure out where the extra Ks came from, still leaves me a bit baffled, but watching me be confused is fun, so here goes. His cutter usage went up a little and change went down a little, which led to better numbers for both of them. He tends to throw those more against righties because they work better against them. Then against lefties, he’s unhittable with a slider and sinker. What does this mean, he learned how to be more effective using his arsenal. I still have a long way to go before I can fully endorse him next year. I.e., I can’t get past the 89 MPH fastball. Preseason Rank #51, 2015 Projections: 11-12/3.81/1.27/140, Final Numbers: 20-8/2.48/1.02/216
5. Max Scherzer – If I’m remembering this correctly (and that’s me being modest, I am remembering it correctly, and this side note is less modest), I was more optimistic on Scherzer than most projections and I’m still way under what he ended up doing. Guys and five girl readers, there is a ton of pitching. Preseason Rank #3, 2015 Projections: 18-5/2.49/1.10/248, Final Numbers: 14-12/2.79/0.92/276
6. Madison Bumgarner – He was skipped in his last start, because apparently 600 innings across two seasons is where he draws the line. He draws said line with his toe because he can’t lift his arm. Preseason Rank #9, 2015 Projections: 16-10/3.01/1.06/206, Final Numbers: 18-9/2.93/1.01/234
7. David Price – He just had arguably his best season. Price’s 2012 season is the one arguing with this past season. His 2013 season said its siding with 2012 too. Could get ugly. Let’s leave them alone. Preseason Rank #6, 2015 Projections: 17-8/2.69/1.07/239, Final Numbers: 18-9/2.45/1.08/225
8. Gerrit Cole – My plan of owning Cole and Arrieta worked out well this past year. Thankfully, only on one of those teams did those plans intersect with my plans on owning Samardzija. Preseason Rank #18, 2015 Projections: 15-8/3.20/1.18/198, Final Numbers: 19-8/2.60/1.09/202
9. Jacob deGrom – Sure, go ahead and look at my projections and think, “Grey, you are handsome, but you totally missed on deGrom.” This is true, but it gets better or worse when you consider I projected him for 191 IP and that’s exactly how many he threw. Also, I did have him in a preseason tier called, “Go ahead, draft your pants off. No, figuratively!” To find out what I was thinking with my projections, I’m going to teleport myself into January Grey’s body…*loud buzz, quick flash* Hey, January Grey here, I cannot wait for the second season of True Detective! As for deGrom, he had a 7.5 K/9 and a 6.8 K/9 in two years of Triple-A, so there’s no way he will have a 9+ K/9 in 2015. *loud buzz, quick flash* January Grey is a moron. Preseason Rank #31, 2015 Projections: 11-6/3.19/1.19/164, Final Numbers: 14-8/2.54/0.98/205
10. Chris Sale – I believe I mentioned this on the final podcast of the year, but I will continue to wait until Sale wins the Cy Young one year with just a modicum of good luck. Preseason Rank #7, 2015 Projections: 15-5/2.41/0.99/217, Final Numbers: 13-11/3.41/1.09/274
11. Matt Harvey – I was off on my ranking and projections of Harvey in the preseason, because I thought the Mets wanted to shut him down early, due to his Tommy John surgery in 2014. Turns out only Harvey wanted to be shut down, the Mets had other plans. Plans that may involve selling his one good arm to the Yankees next year so they can sew it onto Tanaka’s arm. Preseason Rank #27, 2015 Projections: 7-3/3.27/1.10/150, Final Numbers: 13-8/2.71/1.02/188
12. Chris Archer – I owned Archer too, so, as I go through these pitcher recaps, something becomes abundantly clear. I really messed up my hitter drafts. I say this because, I absolutely nailed pitchers in all of my leagues, but only won one (stutterer!) league. I should add I didn’t draft pitching early. Preseason Rank #36, 2015 Projections: 9-11/3.47/1.26/182, Final Numbers: 12-13/3.23/1.14/252
13. Sonny Gray – In the preseason, I said, “Maybe I’m just like my father. Too bold. Maybe I’m just like my mother. Too in love with anyone named Gray. Why do we scream at each other when we’re at the table with wine? This is what it sounds like when Jews and Italians dine!” And that’s me quoting me! That has nothing to do with anything, but it made me laugh. Preseason Rank #32, 2015 Projections: 12-11/3.27/1.21/189, Final Numbers: 14-7/2.73/1.08/169
14. Carlos Carrasco – This feels like one of those end-of-the-season rankings where if you asked someone who was more valuable last year, Carrasco or F-Her, everyone would say F-Her. Even those looking directly at this post. Don’t get me wrong, I enjoyed owning Carrasco…from the 2nd inning on. Preseason Rank #19, 2015 Projections: 13-6/3.27/1.09/192, Final Numbers: 14-12/3.63/1.07/216
15. Felix Hernandez – I love that he won 18 games last year, because if he would’ve won around 12 games, as he could’ve easily done, he wouldn’t even be in the top 30 starters. F-Her’s numbers were not good last year. Everything went sideways, and I don’t mean he was screaming indignantly at a glass of Merlot. Preseason Rank #2, 2015 Projections: 16-5/2.41/0.99/239, Final Numbers: 18-9/3.53/1.18/191
16. Corey Kluber – Kluber is the near exact inverse of F-Her. His bad luck with Wins is hiding a decent season. Granted, it’s easier to swallow “he had a decent season” if you didn’t actually own him. Preseason Rank #4, 2015 Projections: 16-7/2.63/1.07/252, Final Numbers: 9-16/3.49/1.05/245
17. Danny Salazar – I’m the first one to say I Mr. Bungled a ranking or projection (see Dallas Keuchel for further on this subject), but Salazar’s projections and preseason ranking are giving the wrong impression. I actually drafted Salazar in a few leagues around the 25th pitcher off the board, because I didn’t rank him 105th overall for starters until the last week of March when the Indians said some nonsense like McAllister would have his rotation spot. Up until then, I had Salazar ranked in the top 25 for starters. How was I supposed to know the Indians would do the switcheroo about a week after the season started? I can’t tell the future and I threw out my Sports Almanac after betting my life savings on the Cubs. Preseason Rank #105, 2015 Projections: 6-2/3.76/1.28/128, Final Numbers: 14-10/3.45/1.13/195
18. Jon Lester – Exhibit A that wins are stoopid. The Cubs won 97 games last year, and Lester only won 11 games while Wade Miley, on the last place Sox, won 11 games with a 4.46 ERA. Exhibit B why wins are stoopid is a big foam finger pointing to Exhibit A. Preseason Rank #10, 2015 Projections: 15-9/2.92/1.08/206, Final Numbers: 11-12/3.34/1.12/207
19. John Lackey – Lackey’s year leads me to believe that if Chris Sale were on the Cardinals, he’d win 25 games and have a 1.50 ERA with 400 Ks. Preseason Rank #126, 2015 Projections: Bleh-blah/Burp/Derpy/Yeah, no thanks, Final Numbers: 13-10/2.77/1.21/175
20. Cole Hamels – Every year he continues to put up great stats and be a douche. You can set your clock by it, assuming you have a douche clock, which I believe is called an Apple Watch. Preseason Rank #17, 2015 Projections: 12-10/2.97/1.15/192, Final Numbers: 13-8/3.65/1.19/215
