Fantasy Baseball Advice

The other day we went over the top 20 third basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball for our 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  Today, we turn our bejeweled eyeglasses to the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The top twenty outfielders will need to go to a top 40 then a top 60 then a top 80.  Unfortunately, outfield is pretty shallow.  Guess outfielders come in waves… much like sperm whales.  Oofa!  For five outfielder leagues, this really blows, which is only a positive if you’re a sperm whale.  Zadow!  As always, these top 20 outfielders are broken up into tiers with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Bautista – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Matt Kemp – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. Justin Upton – Went over his projections in the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

4. Jacoby Ellsbury – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

5. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

6. Andrew McCutchen – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pence.  I call this tier, “These players.  ‘What Grey wants in every league, Alex?’”  The outfield isn’t quite as deep as it should be considering there’s three of these suckers playing at any given moment on all teams and the Reds have four.

7. Mike Stanton – Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

8. Jay Bruce – What we got from Bruce last year may not have been totally Boss, but a guy that can give you a 30+ homer and 8+ steal season is valuable nowadays.  If Bruce manages to pull a rabbit out of his hat, he could improve in all five categories and there will be a magician somewhere wondering why Jay Bruce has his rabbit.  2012 Projections:  90/34/100/.270/10

9. Josh Hamilton – I think the market has finally figured out Hamilton.  No longer is everyone expecting a MVP season every time out.  People have realized he’s Mr. Glass.  When healthy, Hamilton hits homers and a solid average, runs and RBIs.  When he’s not healthy, you plug in someone else.  In 12 team mixed leagues, it’s much easier to do that than in deep AL-Only ones so keep that in mind when drafting.  (In AL-Only leagues or any leagues with less waiver wire options, I’d move Hamilton down to the next tier.)  2012 Projections:  75/27/85/.295/7

10. Nelson Cruz – Take the above and just “find” Hamilton and “replace” with Cruz.  I think the market has finally figured out Cruz.  No longer is everyone–Well, you can do it on your own.  2012 Projections:  70/30/85/.260/10

11. Hunter Pence – He’s a square peg in this round tier.  Everyone else in this tier has crazy upside and some potential pitfalls.  Pence is steady as she goes, Raconteurs.  Last year he hit a few less homers, but I could see him actually hitting a few more homers this year because he won’t be playing under the tyranny of the recently-exiled Ed Wade’s Toupee.  (Was actually surprised Astros fans weren’t more excited about the disposal of the Toupee, but, then again, I don’t think there are Astros fans.)  2012 Projections:  95/25/100/.280/10

12. Curtis Granderson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Victorino.  I call this tier, “How is this tier different than all other tiers?  This tier I’m going to pass over.”  Went over his projections in the top 20 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Matt Holliday – I’m done with Holliday until next year or the year after when he falls into the tier of outfielders with guys like Vernon Wells.  He’s still too coveted for what he used to do rather than what he’s about to do.  Oh, and please don’t ask in the comments if this means I would never draft Holliday.  I would take Pence, Cruz and Bruce before him and I’ve seen Holliday taken before them, so how am I drafting Holliday?  I’m not taking four outfielders in the course of one pick, i.e., I’m not drafting Holliday before others so I’m not getting him.  Sorry to longtime readers who had to read that, but I feel like I always get these questions around the time of rankings.  2012 Projections:  85/24/90/.305/5

14. Lance Berkman -  Went over Berkman’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

15. Shane Victorino – We had a good run.  Victorino and I.  It’s come to an end.  Howard’s banged up, Utley’s a nail clipping incident away from the 15-day DL and Rollins has more miles on him than your Chrysler LeBaron.  Victorino’s runs and RBIs will be affected.  His speed is affected by his age, and he’s not a big power threat.  If he falls far enough I could see maybe taking him, but it’s time to bid him aloha.  The goodbye version of aloha, that is.  2012 Projections:  85/15/55/.275/20

16. Michael Morse – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 40 outfielders for 2012 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I’ll happily reach for one of these guys if I have to, in the non-sexual way.  Though it’s kinda sad this is the third tier of outfielders that I’m excited about.  Times is tough, yo.”  Went over Morse’s projections at the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball post.

17. Desmond Jennings – I already went over my Desmond Jennings 2012 fantasy.  While I wrote it, a leprechaun with a broken GPS looking for a rainbow appeared out my window.  2012 Projections:  80/16/65/.275/35

18. B.J. Upton – Honestly, I might be the only fantasy baseball ‘pert who doesn’t mind Fellatio Upton.  Sure, he hits for a wonky average, but so does your mom.  (Actually, I don’t know how well your mom hits for average.  Though she looks like she can’t leg out many infield hits on those cankles.)  Upton hits for power and steals bases.  I’m willing to go out on a limb that he can luck into a .260 average one of these years with his wheels and still go 20/40.  At 27 years of age, this is the year I’m betting on.  2012 Projections:  80/20/85/.250/40

19. Adam Jones – He has a few strikes against him.  But games haven’t started yet?!  Strikes against him was a figure of speech, Random Italicized Voice.  Jones’s ground ball rate isn’t great, which makes me think we’ll need to be lucky to get over 25 homers and his walk rate is near abysmal.  A guy that can give 25/12/.285 is valuable though in today’s bear market, which only sounds like a grocery store in The Castro.  2012 Projections:  80/25/90/.285/12

20. Drew Stubbs – Stubbs isn’t really the same player as Fellatio Upton, so I battled with how to get him out of the same tier.  I battled myself by dunking my hands in two bowls of Jell-O, then thumb-wrestling myself to a ten round draw.  I ended up figuring it was fine to put Stubbs in the same tier but below him.  2012 Projections:  80/17/55/.240/40

We finish off the infield with the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings from shallowest to deepest go shortstops, third basemen, catchers, 2nd basemen then 1st basemen.  That’s right, I think the catchers and 2nd basemen are deeper than the 3rd basemen.  3rd base gets the gas face.  In 2009, I punted 3rd base for Mark Reynolds late.  Worked out fine.  In 2010, I punted 3rd base for Ian Stewart late.  Didn’t work out fine.  In 2011, I really wanted a top 3rd baseman and punted Jose Bautista while targeting Pedro Alvarez, Ryan Zimmerman and David Wright, which taught me a valuable lesson.  I’m a moron.  (A very hurtful lesson, mind you.)  As with other top 20 rankings, I list where I see tiers beginning and ending and my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Jose Bautista – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

2. Evan Longoria – His projections can be found at the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball.

3. David Wright – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Reynolds.  I call this tier, “We’re too early in a top 20 for question marks.  So why are there so many question marks?”  Honestly, how many times can we go to this Wright well?  The Wright well hasn’t paid whividends in a whery, whery whong time.  Stupid Elmer Fudd voice in my head.  The one non-scientific stat we have to look at is how he’s alternated good power years with bad ones and in 2012 we’re due for a good one.  Yeah, that’s so non-scientific it’s kinda silly.  The better news is The Great Wall of Flushing is coming down and in.  That’s definitely a cheaper way to acquire offense than signing Pujols or Fielder and more legal than accidentally bumping into players with a steroid needle.  How much the new dimensions will actually affect Wright’s power is threefold.  First fold, his “Just Enough” homers could increase.  Second fold, the park’s size may have got in his head and psychologically he may feel more confident about hitting at Metco and end up hitting more homers.  Third fold, there’s no third fold.  Who ever heard of a third fold?  2012 Projections:  85/24/100/.290/15

4. Adrian Beltre – Great lineup, great ballpark, one man who they call “The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room” sneezes and the whole team goes down with the flu for 15 days.  Yeah, I’m not sure why, but no one on the Rangers gets injured by themselves.  They’re like dominos.  Nelson Cruz goes down, then there goes Hamilton, there goes Kinsler, there goes Beltre… It’s a shame to blame one man but The Guy Who Brings Them Towels In The Locker Room does have shifty eyes.  2012 Projections:  75/28/100/.280/3

5. Pablo Sandoval – After wrestling to lose weight and change his name to Sandrectangle, Pablo embraced his girth and hit 23 homers last year.  Still this guy’s big question mark is where does he find pants that fit him?  Oh, and is the power for real?  It looks like it is plus or minus 2 homers from the 23 last year.  Maybe he can pass his cure of blimpotence over to Billy Butler.  Also, similarly to Butler, Sandoval’s got a way with the good average.  After a flukey injury sidelined him last year expect a nice step forward.  2012 Projections:  80/27/95/.320/3

6. Ryan Zimmerman – In my special no-no area, I have a tingling sensation that Zimmerman’s about to have a huge year.  He’s 27, an age when hitters really hit their prime, and he’s proven before that he can hit 30+ homers if he stays healthy.  Mummify him in bubble wrap and send him out to take grounders!  2012 Projections:  80/27/100/.290/5

7. Brett Lawrie – Yeah, I ranked him pretty high.  We’re going to talk about two hypothetical scenarios.  First scenario has you drafting Lawrie before your leaguemates.  All your leaguemates groan, they all wanted him.  Lawrie starts off the season slow and people are glad they didn’t draft him.  (Or he starts off fast.  Either scenario work for this scenario.  We’ll call these Scenarios 1A and 1B.)  Then he turns things around in 1A, everyone wants him.  Or he continues pounding the ball in 1B and everyone still wants him.  You could trade him for a much more valuable piece or you can ride the wave.  Second scenario (2A), you draft Aramis, he gets hurt in May and no one wants him, not even you.  Then Aramis comes back and hits, but still no one wants him because people don’t trust him to stay healthy.  Or (2B) you trade Aramis for less than his worth because you just want to be done with him and then he continues to hit and you get an ulcer.  In 1A and 1B, you have Lawrie or whatever you want (within reason and depending on what your state constitution allows).  In 2A, you have a piece you don’t even want and an ulcer (2B).  I also went over my Brett Lawrie 2012 fantasy.  2C click the link. 2012 Projections:  90/20/70/.290/24

8. Alex Rodriguez – When I was doing my research for A-Rod, I was looking through some of his past years — 52 homers, 18 steals in 2001, 57 homers and 9 steals in 2002 — how again did we not know there was steroids in baseball?  I mean, every BBWAA member is saddened and disheartened and synonym now when they talk about these players besmirching the good name of baseball.  Why weren’t they saddened etc. when it was going on?  Wasn’t it obvious?  I wasn’t bothered because during these years I was smoking weed.  Was every BBWAA member high?  Any the hoo!  A-Rod’s presumably clean of the clear now, but his body is breaking down because of the years on it.  That’s his question mark.  Can he stay healthy?  I have my doubts.  2012 Projections:  70/24/85/.270/5

9. Aramis Ramirez – When Aramis signed with the Brewers, I went over my Aramis fantasy.  I wrote it while karaoking to Air Supply’s Even the Nights are Better.  2012 Projections:  75/25/95/.295

10. Kevin Youkilis – Okay, basically no 3rd baseman can stay healthy.  I think something that gets lost in the Sawx hype is The Greek God of Can’t Walk Half The Time has hit less than 20 homers over more seasons than he’s hit above 25 homers and has never hit more than 29 homers.  Pablo Sandoval, who’s 7 years younger than him, has as many 20+ homer seasons.  Youuuuuuk is a good name for people who like names.  For people who like players to actually hit, he’s not as good.  2012 Projections:  75/19/85/.270/3

11. Michael Young -  Went over Young’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

12. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds’s projections in the top 20 1st basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

13. Emilio Bonifacio – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Roberts.  I call this tier, “You should draft someone else.” Went over Bonifacio’s projections at the top 20 shortstops for 2012 fantasy baseball.

14. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts’s projections at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball.

15. Mike Moustakas – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Stewart.  I call this tier, “The good news, but it comes with degrees of risk.”  This is the good news because 3rd base is about to get infusion of talent.  To use a phrase that sounds like a cliche, brighter days are on the horizon.  Whether it’s Moose, Valencia, Stewart or Gamel, one or more of these guys should provide sneaky value.  Obviously not all of them will, so choose wisely.  I wrote a Moustakas 2012 fantasy post already.  It’s six parts brilliant and one part dumb.  It’s up to you decide which is which.  2012 Projections:   60/20/80/.270/4

16. Danny Valencia – Valencia, California is also known non-ironically as Awesometown.  So I suggest we call him Danny Awesometown.  Makes you more excited about Valencia, doesn’t it?  No?!  Geez, you’re tough.  How about the fact he can hit almost 20 homers and get maybe three steals?  That gets you going, doesn’t it?  All right, how about Danny Might-Be-Solid-Considering-How-Late-You-Can-Draft-Him-town?  2012 Projections:  75/18/85/.265/3

17. Mat Gamel – Here’s what I said earlier this offseason, “No one likes Mat Gamel.   The Brewers wanted to try Gamel in Spring Training last year and he was 30 pounds overweight.  Lay off the mayonnaise, doode.  His Triple-A manager said he’s “hard-headed.”  (No one ever said that of Justin Morneau.)  I get this feeling with a beat provided by will.i.am that Gamel is gonna go the way of Matt Murton.  I hope he doesn’t.  I hope he gets a real shot at 1st base in Spring Training.  I think now that McGehee is gone he will.  Even if all Gamel does is hit homers and make errors.  In 2007, Milwaukeeans called that The Braun Exacta.  I propose the Brewers correct Gamel’s defensive problems similar to how the Rockies went to the humidor.  They should put The Vacuum in Miller Park.  Whenever the visiting team is hitting, you turn The Vacuum to suck and watch as everything is hit to the left side.  The Vacuum sucks so Gamel doesn’t blow.  He had another great year at Triple-A — 28 homers, .310.  He looks like he’s more than ready with the bat.  Definitely will be someone I’ll look at late in drafts for my corner infidel spot.  Could get a cheap 25 homers and a .290 average.”  And that’s me quoting me!  In the end, Gamel is either going to give you 25 homers or 2 homers and you have to drop him because he’s lost the job.  2012 Projections:  60/25/75/.290

18. Ian Stewart – Incredibly, I’m willing to give Mini Mini Donkey one more chance, especially if he’s being drafted late enough.  For a late round flyer what does Stewart have over, say, Pedro Alvarez?  He’s had a full season where he hit 25 homers.  That’s one.  Why him over, say, Freese?  Same reason.  Over Prado?  Same reason.  Stewart also his sneaky 7 to 10 steal speed like his mentor, Mini Donkey. 2012 Projections:  60/24/75/.245/7

19. David Freese – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Edwin Encarnacion.  I call this tier, “My New Year’s Resolution was to not see the movie New Year’s Eve and to draft a 3rd baseman before this tier.”  2011 World Series MVP David Freese has little power, no speed and the hype of changing his name to 2011 World Series MVP David Freese.  Oh, and he can’t stay healthy.  Sounds like he should be the mayor of Awesometown.  2012 Projections:  55/15/65/.290

20. Martin Prado -  The other day Prado showed up at my window singing The Promise by When In Rome.  He was trying to curry favor with me because he knows that his lack of power and speed makes me not want to draft him ever.  When he was done singing, I still didn’t want to draft him but I did invite him in for some risotto.  I have a big heart!  2012 Projections:  80/12/70/.300/5

After the top 20 3rd basemen for 2012 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these five stand out:

Edwin Encarnacion – He’s either going to stay healthy and hit .250 with 25 homers or get hurt and have 15 homers and .250.  In most leagues, you’re not going to hold onto him if you draft him so why bother?  Go for upside with someone else.  2012 Projections:  60/20/70/.255/3

Scott Sizemore – You really shouldn’t have Sizemore on your team outside of AL-Only leagues, and even there he leaves a lot to be desired.  Here’s the deal — dealio, if you’re trying to sound hip but aren’t really — 3rd base is not a deep position and if you’re this deep you don’t have many options.  Sizemore had his best season last year with a 11/5 season and that looked like it was ceiling, and with a ceiling like that who needs floors? (<–I think that makes sense.  Think about it.)  2012 Projections:  65/10/70/.260/7

Lonnie Chisenhall – I already went over my Lonnie Chisenhall fantasy.  I counted six typos.  2012 Projections:  65/20/80/.250/3

Casey McGehee – Casey McGehee is a Baha Man.  He was a guy who looked destined to be a utility man, had a huge season and people started inserting Casey McGehee into the poem, Casey at the Bat.  Turned out he was a utility man who lucked into a big season and those same people wished they didn’t use pen when inserting his name into the poem, so they changed McGehee to MacDonald and told everyone they did a mash-up of Casey at the Bat and Old MacDonald.  2012 Projections:  60/16/70/.260

Pedro Alvarez -  Yes, Casey McGehee might steal his playing time.  What I think actually happens is Alvarez or McGehee goes to first base and the other plays — I don’t know — third base.  Last year all went wrong for PeAl (hmm, that nickname doesn’t really work).  The first year he had a 30.8% K-rate, but he was buoyed by a .341 BABIP.  When his BABIP came back to earth, his K-rate left a crater the size of the Grand Canyon in his average.  He needs to cut back on his Ks or he’s going to be back in the minors, carrying his own bags and staying in dumps with no running water.  Well, that sorta sounds like nice hotels in Pittsburgh, but you catch my drift.  2012 Projections:  60/18/75/.240

What time is it?!  8:25 AM! No, random italicized voice, it’s time for the 2012 Fantasy Baseball Rankings.  Second guess. All the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings will live in that link.  The one that reads 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  It’s also at the top of the page.  No, not “Home.”  To the left of the Fantasy Baseball Forum link.  Now we’re cooking with gas!  If you’re a completist, follow us on Twitter or Facebook.  I don’t go to either site longer than 2 minutes a month, but, as I’ve told ex-girlfriends, sometimes all you need is two minutes.  Hmm… Maybe that’s why they’re ex.  Nah, if I were a selfish lover, I wouldn’t have a mustache.  Now my expositional half insists I breakdown some generalizations about these 2012 fantasy baseball rankings.  The 2012 fantasy baseball rankings will be an ever-evolving mass like the blob.  This fantasy baseball top 10 for 2012 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or Miguel Cabrera breaking a tooth on his maple bat as he tries to extract hops.  So while it is the 2012 fantasy baseball gospel, take it with a tablet of salt.  Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2012 fantasy baseball then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position.  Then for pitchers and outfielders, I’ll turn the dial to 80.  Listed next to each player are my 2012 projections.  Did I consult with whoever else does projections?  It would be ignorant not to, but in the end they are my projections.  Players need 10 games at a position to get included in the positional rankings.  Finally, as with each list in the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings, I will be mentioning where I see tiers start and stop.  I look at tiers like this, if Miguel Cabrera and Albert Pujols are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 1st and one guy is ranked 2nd, they’re both very close. It comes down to personal preference.  I would prefer the guy at number one better than the guy at three, but you do you, I’ll do me and let’s hope we don’t go blind.  Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2012 fantasy baseball:

1. Miguel Cabrera – Even while touring the country with his stage production of Leaving Las Vegas, he still put up MVP-type numbers.  Know why?  Cause Swiggy Cabrera is a freak of nature.  Look at Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle and Sam Kinison.  Substance abuse never stopped any of them… Until they hit their 40′s, started bloating and showing up places three days late with nothing but a red Solo cup.  I almost ranked Pujols number one.  If you went that way, I wouldn’t hate on you.  They’re in the same tier, y’all!  I’m still looking forward, not looking back.  Miggy will be 29 years old for the majority of the 2012 season and he’s solidly in his prime.  He doesn’t give you around ten steals like Pujols.  You know what Pujols doesn’t give you?  Healthy elbow tendons.  Miggy’s power has been just okay for him recently, but he’s still good for 30 homers.  So, like Miggy should’ve done, just temper yourself.  Oh, and this is the first tier.  It goes from here until Bautista.  I call this tier, “The top four.  Dur.” 2012 Projections:  105/32/115/.325/3

2. Albert Pujols – I already went over my Pujols 2012 fantasy.  I wrote that while base jumping in the Grand Canyon.  I will say something less sarcastic than Grey usually says (but just as 3rd person-y).  Grey got to see the tail end of Pete Rose’s career, Barry Bonds’s head swelling, Pedro Martinez’s prime with him asking “Who is Karim Garcia?” and enjoyed Cal Ripken’s achievements, but, with Pujols, we’re witnessing one of the top five greatest baseball players ever.  That’s pretty cool.  I will now return to being as cynical as the internet requires.  Thanks a lot, Al Gore!  2012 Projections:  100/35/110/.305/7

3. Joey Votto – He’s more or less a 30-homer, 10-steal, .315-average, 100-run, 100-RBI hitter.  If you get more, then you have the best hitter for fantasy baseball.  If you get less, you will barely get less and he will still be a top 20 hitter.  I’ll take that every day and twice on Muesday.  Last year his walk rate went up and K-rate went down.  His line drives went up so high (not literally) that it actually hurt his power a smidge.  Whatever.  If the worst thing that happens is that he hits too many line drives, you need to listen to your grandfather tell you about walking to school barefoot in the snow while wearing a burlap sack and being required to sing Ethel Merman, i.e., things could be worse.  2012 Projections:  100/30/110/.315/10

4. Jose Bautista – Okay, let’s address the elephant in the room.  No, Prince Fielder isn’t in my room while I write this.  The elephant in the room is I have Bautista after Votto.  I have Bautista lower than some other fantasy baseball ‘perts.  It’s the same tier, but I’m still wary of Bautista.  I’m trying here.  I made a life-sized Bautista cardboard cutout with outstretched arms and I fell into it for a trust exercise and he dropped me.  Bad omen, I say as if I were Yoda.  My biggest fear is after not trusting Bautista last year I will finally draft him and he bombs in the bad way.  Since there’s nothing in his stats that say this should happen, it’s probably totally unrealistic.  Yet… Ugh.  Bautista, why do you conflict me?   2012 Projections:  100/38/105/.265/10

5. Evan Longoria – I want Longoria in every league this year.  If I see him ranked 5th overall by someone else, then I’m moving him up to 4.  If he’s ranked number 4 by someone, I’m moving him up to 3.  If someone has the gall to rank him first, I’m ranking him zero.  And don’t make me go to Sub-Zero.  Ryu-ken!  You best believe I’m Tekken Longoria!  (That’s a pun for the kids.)  His average was .244 last year due to a pee-poor BABIP.  Yet, his K-rate actually went down and his walk rate went up.  His steals went down but he was on first 28 less times last year.  He can easily get 7 to 10 steals if he sees first just a few more times.  I’m not even going to talk about runs and RBIs because of how fickle they are, but there’s no reason to think he won’t see production.  You’re not drafting guys for last year.  You’re drafting them for 2012.  Wanna play in a 2011 throwback league?  Get in a DeLorean and hit the gas.  I’m living on Wisteria Lane and texting Tony Parker what he’s missing.  This, friends, is Longoria’s MVP year.  Oh, and this is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Justin Upton.  I call this tier, “I’m fine taking one of these guys with my first pick; Tulo better not disappoint me.  Why do I always have such trepidations about Tulo?  Maybe it’s the fact he can’t ever stay healthy.”  2012 Projections:  105/34/120/.280/7

6. Matt Kemp – When he lost the MVP, he said now he’s going to go 50/50.  That’s nice, and Tom Cruise wants to be five inches taller so he can see the top of Katie Holmes’s head.  Neither are happening any time soon.  Kemp’s BABIP last year was .380.  Even with his career BABIP’s being fairly high, that’s high.  When his luck regresses and, with as much as he strikes out, he’s not hitting .324 again.  He probably won’t hit .300.  With less times on base, he’ll have fewer steals.  His power was off the charts too.  2011 was a career year.  No matter how much he wants to exceed it.  That doesn’t mean a .290 hitter going 30/25 can’t be valuable.  2012 Projections:  100/30/105/.290/25

7. Troy Tulowitzki – Something about 30 homers just makes everything better.  If Tulo would’ve missed the month of September and only had 27 homers, I think more people would’ve been pushing away from him this year, but he reached that arbitrary benchmark and he has the nice position eligibility.  One of these years we’re actually going to get a full season from Tulo and he’s going to blow the world away.  Since he’s only 27 years old for 2012, it may as well be this year.  Worst case scenario, you get solid 5 categories from a terrible position and he misses a month of games.  Best case scenario, he plays 150+ games, puts up MVP-type numbers and wins you a house during the Century 21 Home Run Derby.  2012 Projections:  95/32/110/.305/10

8. Justin Upton – In the first few rounds, I want as many proven, consistent performers as I can find.  I don’t think that’s Upton.  But he’s so tantalizing!  And talented!  And he’s not an average drain like Fellatio Upton, who is not Kate Upton, though you’d like to think so.  Upton might be the best outfielder and the number one overall pick by next year.  He just went 31/21/.289 at the age of 23 and didn’t do a whole lot that says he can’t do it again.  If anything, he could easily exceed last year’s numbers. At such a young age though, he could take a step back and disappoint.  At the turn in the first round, it’s not a bad gamble to grab Upton and someone less risky like Prince Fielder.  Want someone that could put up the season Kemp just did in 2011?  Little Ups is your man.  2012 Projections:  100/30/100/.300/20

9. Prince Fielder – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 20 for fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Less exciting than the next tier, but more consistent.”  Immediately you have to ask yourself if you want sexy or consistent.  Sexy can win championships, but consistent can too, which is in no way related to Jorge Cantu.   Fielder is the Saberhagen of hitters.  Your grapes would be hard-pressed to find a hitter that alternates between a great year and a solid, if unspectacular year more than Fielder.  If that holds, we’re looking forward to a solid, if unspectacular year, which almost had me knock him down the rankings.  In the end, I felt that whole on-again, off-again year-to-year performance thing was too anecdotal to give too much credence.  Then I sued John Fogerty because I wanted to use the word credence.  When Prince signed with the Tigers, I went over my Prince Fielder fantasy.  It only has two fat jokes.  Sorry.  2012 Projections:  100/37/115/.280

10. Adrian Gonzalez – Who could’ve predicted Gonzalez would move from Petco to Fenway and have his worst power year since 2006?  Rhetorical!  For some reason (I’m sure someone knows), his ground balls went through the roof (not literally, unless there’s ants reading this).  A ground ball rate of 46.7 is not terrific.  It’s around Bourjos, Austin Jackson and Drew Stubbs’s type ground ball rate.  His BABIP was off the charts lucky, so, with all those ground balls, he was inches away from having a hideous season.  I don’t want to overrate any of this.  He’s still in a great park, solid lineup and the middle of his prime.  Even if he hits only 30 homers (which he should), he’s going to have great counting stats and a decent enough average.  If I had to choose one 1st rounder that might have a disastrous season out of nowhere, I’d choose A-Gon, but that’s a gut call.  We’re not drafting based on my gut, especially not after I just ate Thai.  2012 Projections:  100/32/115/.275

Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2011. Guess what’s next!  No, not pitchers. Read the title, man.  In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, this year there were 9.  It isn’t exactly like a bleached Sammy Sosa is sticking players with needles, but at least the rich got a little richer — yay, capitalism!  Steals were still in abundance, and that doesn’t seem like it’s going anywhere any time soon.  There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases with Michael Bourn still eating the baby out of the king cake.  Since outfield is a deep position, I’m going to turn this one to 40.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Matt Kemp – In the preseason, I ranked him 12th overall for all players.  Find another ‘pert who ranked him that high last year.  You’re wasting your time, you won’t find them.  I ranked him as the 2nd outfielder overall.  Just off Ryan Braun.  He was drafted on average 26th overall and some ‘perts had him in the 40′s.  He wasn’t an obvious pick.  2010 was not a good year, but he dropped his ball and anchor — or is it whips and chains? — and asked you to say his name.  In the preseason, I said, “A total off year in 2010.  That’s clear.  He still hit 28 home runs and stole 19 bases.  Sure, he hit .249, but he’s a career .285 hitter and his BABIP shows he was horribly unlucky last year.  Yes, his Ks went up, but what happens when someone is unlucky?  They press and start swinging at more pitches outside the strike zone.  At 26 years old for the majority of 2011, now is not the time to give up on Kemp.”  You can’t make that shizz up.  Okay, you can, but it would be pretty easy to double-check it.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/30/105/.285/22, Final Numbers: 115/39/126/.324/40

2. Jacoby Ellsbury – And as right as I was on Kemp, I didn’t see any of this Ellsbury season coming.  About a month into the season I even compared Ellsbury to Gardner.  While Gardner didn’t have a bad season, Ellsbury came out of nowhere with power that made him way more valuable.  But the whole “came out of nowhere” thing makes me think we’re looking at a career year for Ellsbury.  Preseason Rank #21, 2011 Projections:  90/7/70/.290/45, Final Numbers: 119/32/105/.321/39

3. Ryan Braun – In honor of The Hebrew Hammer, I wrote this about three weeks ago on Yom Kippur so I’ll make this fast.  Zing!  BTW, what’s the only thing you’re allowed to eat during Yom Kippur?  Atone-mints.  Zadow!  The fact that Braun wasn’t the number one outfielder with the year he had is more an (old) testament to the guys above him.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/32/120/.295/15, Final Numbers:  109/33/111/.332/33

4. Curtis Granderson – It sure was fun while it was going on, but now that Grandy’s 2011 is over it’s time to get real, I mean, was he for real?  God, no.  Will depend on where he gets drafted next year, but off the top of my head I’ll say he will be overrated next year.  Preseason Rank #27, 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.260/15, Final Numbers:  136/41/119/.262/25

5. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

6. Justin Upton – There’s guys that will repeat 2011 for a few years if they can avoid injury like Braun and there’s guys like Grandy and Melky.  Upton’s not a Melky or Grandy.  He’s a Braun.  Though Upton’s a lot more the Upton we saw this year than Braun was the Braun that we saw this year.  And that sentence wasn’t half as confusing in my head.  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  85/26/95/.270/20, Final Numbers:  105/31/88/.289/21

7. Michael Bourn – There’s a few Razzball concepts that just work perfectly, if I can be so immodest.  SAGNOF is one.  It becomes apparent when you see ESPN rank someone like Bourn 7th overall.  Imagine on April 15th you were to trade Bourn straight up for Justin Upton then grab someone off waivers like Coco Crisp.  Your league would’ve had a conniption.  People would’ve immediately started sending notarized letters to your commissioner, using synonyms for unfair that they found in the thesaurus.  Preseason Rank #40 1/2, 2011 Projections:  80/3/40/.265/45, Final Numbers: 94/2/50/.294/61

8. Melky Cabrera – First player to come out of nowhere, but I don’t think he was the 8th ranked outfielder.  (I know it seems like I recap the players according to the ESPN Player Rater then disagree with it every step of the way, but c’est la vie, as Francouer would say.)  Melky’s stats made him a great third outfielder, solid across the board production.  As for where this season from Melky came from, he’s being seriously aided by plate appearances.  706 PA’s last year for 18 homers and 20 steals?  If his PA’s fall into the 550 range as they had most years prior to 2011, his stats are gonna look like Mike Aviles.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  102/18/87/.305/20

9. Alex Gordon – I recapped Alex Gordon’s season already.  I wrote that while stuffing a duck’s gullet for some foie gras.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  101/23/87/.303/17

10. Carlos Gonzalez – I knew CarGo wasn’t repeating his 2010, gave you preseason projections that were almost perfect and told you he was overrated.  Yet, I feel like he didn’t disappoint as much as he could have.  How dare you overperform your underperformance!  Preseason Rank #5, 2011 Projections:  90/24/95/.285/20, Final Numbers:  92/26/92/.295/20

11. Hunter Pence – Here’s a guy that is cast in the Braun/Upton mold.  You can set your watch to a decent year from Pence.  Give or take some power, some speed, some average… Well, his stats are always there…thereabouts.  Preseason Rank #10, 2011 Projections:  90/25/90/.290/15, Final Numbers:  84/22/97/.314/8

12. Lance Berkman – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

13. Jeff Francoeur – Imagine if the peasant Royals would’ve actually had some pitching in 2011.  They would’ve easily made the postseason only to be bounced by the Rangers.  The Royals had more runs scored than the Phillies, Brewers and Rays.  As for fantasy, guys that surprise by overproducing are terrific.  But — and unless you’re an alien, there’s always a but — how many fantasy owners actually got these seasons in their entirety?  In deep leagues?  Sure.  You draft a guy like Frenchy and pray, then thank your deity of choice when he pans out.  But in shallow leagues, you look at a guy like Frenchy and maybe pick him up after he does some hitting, then maybe drop him when he stops for a few weeks then maybe you grab him again, but you don’t have these players for the whole season.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  77/20/87/.285/22

14. Michael Morse – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen post.

15. Josh Hamilton – Ellsbury threw me for a loop, Grandy exceeded my expectations by a shizzton and Melky did what no one thought he could with a bunch of plate appearances, but Hamilton once again did exactly what I thought he would.  Good while healthy with “while healthy” having its own solar system.  Preseason Rank #6, 2011 Projections:  85/27/100/.305/7, Final Numbers: 80/25/94/.298/8

16. B.J. Upton – People seem to hate B.J.  I think it’s the low average bias that permeates fantasy.  It’s odd that there’s such a bias when average is the hardest thing to predict.  Hate on low power or low speed, but low average?  It’s a horn bet.  Preseason Rank #19, 2011 Projections:  95/17/75/.250/40, Final Numbers: 82/23/81/.243/36

17. Ben Zobrist – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

18. Andrew McCutchen – Last year we found out that The Dread Pirate wasn’t quite ready to take the next step like I thought he would.  He didn’t come up that short, but short enough as they say at dwarf bowling.  I really try to focus on making these blurbs about what the players did last year rather than looking ahead, but that’s easier said than done.  The Dread Pirate is gonna be my 2012 Matt Kemp.  There’s no one more exciting to me for next year that had a slightly down year.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  100/18/60/.290/38, Final Numbers: 87/23/89/.259/23

19. Coco Crisp – At 31 years old, he had his best season.  Coco Crisp must’ve been eating his Lucky Charms.  All of these steals came from a Billy Beane-GM’d team.  I guess there’s market efficiencies with steals now.  You’re probably not asking yourself what I thought of Moneyball, but I’ll tell you anyway.  SPOILER ALERT (but the movie has been out for over a month, you really have that much to do?)  I was kinda disappointed.  To go all EW on you, I’d give it a B, but I was hoping for an A.  Damn you, expectations.  I know Michael Lewis glossed over the fact Zito, Mulder, Hudson and the steroid-fueled Chavez and Tejada were actually a big part of the A’s success so I figured the movie would do the same.  It did.  They want a fairy tale about how some unknowns carried the team to glory.  Yay, Scott Hatteberg is undervalued and he uses a bat carved from a tree that lightning struck!  Not really, but whatever.  I was more disappointed because I was bored during stretches and I didn’t like Jonah Hill at all.  Hey, let’s get the Jew to find value where others are missing it!  Finally, I wanted some unintentional comedy with Royce Clayton playing Tejada.  “Hey, Miggy, do you have diabetes?”  Cut to:  Tejada holding a syringe.  Tejada, “Yes.  Blood sugar low.”  Though that song the daughter sings is hella (do the kids still say this?) catchy.  Should’ve changed the lyrics though:  I’m just a GM stuck in Oakland… I’m kind of sick of being so broke and having my team get to the playoffs only to choke.  Slow it down, make it stop… Miguel Tejada’s arms look like their gonna pop… BTW, if you wanna read movie reviews, my friend has a movie review blog.  Preseason Rank #62, 2011 Projections:  50/6/35/.260/22, Final Numbers:  69/8/54/.264/49

20. Emilio Bonifacio – Went over him in the top 20 3rd basemen post.

Top 20 catchers, 1st basemen and 2nd basemen for 2011 are in the books.  We continue around the horn (that means we’ll go back for the shortstops; don’t ask, I was getting fancy) bringing us to the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball.   This year 3rd base gave most of you the gas face.  For the most part, you were lucky if you didn’t draft a top ranked one cause most of them bombed.  I mean, Emilio Bonifacio is a top five 3rd baseman?  That’s an eff in the coolie if I’ve ever heard one.  Zimmerman, Longoria, Wright?  Made you look smart in opposite world.  Also, to recap, this final ranking is from ESPN Player Rater with my comments.  The Player Rater allows me to be impartial while looking at how I ranked them in the preseason.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 3rd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

1. Jose Bautista – A very wise monkey once said, sometimes when you go out on a limb, the branch breaks.  To use limb in another sentence:  I don’t think it’s much of a limb when I say Bautista was my biggest snafu since I started this blog.  I really didn’t believe him at all.  The kicker was usually when I Mr. Bungle a player as bad as I did with Bautista, Rudy will correct me, but he punted Bautista too, so I wasn’t even counterbalanced.  I can’t say this for sure, but it seems like most ‘perts don’t give a flying elbow if they make right or wrong calls, but I will say Bautista taught me one thing.  I don’t like being wrong; it really annoyed me that I mucked him up.  Now watch next year when I project him for 40 homers, he’s gonna hit 12 and make me into a Mr. Bungle once again.   Preseason Rank #12 (Yes, I was that much a non-believer; I had Pedro Alvarez above him.  I will now eat an apple laced with cyanide.), 2011 Projections:  70/25/80/.240/5, Final Numbers:  105/43/103/.302/9

2. Michael Young – Went over Young in the top 20 1st basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

3. Adrian Beltre – I was pretty accurate with my mid-tier 3rd basemen preseason ranking.  Beltre, Young, Reynolds, Alvarez, Aramis and McGehee turned out as I thought they would, minus McGehee and Alvarez, obviously.  Unfortunately, I ended up with Alvarez and McGehee on more teams than I care to admit.  Alvarez, in particular, killed me.  This, however, is supposed to be about Beltre.  As soon as he signed with the Rangers, any trepidation I had went out the window.  Man Standing Outside My Metaphorical Window, “Stopping throwing trepidation on me!”  Preseason Rank #7, 2011 Projections:  80/24/95/.285/7, Final Numbers:  82/32/105/.296/1

4. Aramis Ramirez – Here’s one way to look at how pee poor the 3rd basemen were.  I pretty much nailed Aramis’s projections with his final numbers and I ranked him 11th and he finished 4th.  That, more or less, means seven 3rd basemen bombed.  Also, more or less should be one word.  Moreorless — doesn’t that look better?  You’re welcome, English language; I’m fixing you.  Preseason Rank #11, 2011 Projections:  75/25/90/.280, Final Numbers:  80/26/93/.306/1

5. Emilio Bonifacio – There’s nothing I can say that will illustrate how bad the 3rd basemen are that can’t be said by just seeing how high Bonifacio ranked here.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  78/5/36/.296/40

6. Jhonny Peralta – After looking like a lock for 20+ homers and a .270 average back in 2008, he wrestled with major league pitching like I wrestle with his superfluous H.  Due to some luck, his average was about 20 points too high, but everything else seems right in line with what he can do.  He’s ranked this high because 3rd basemen sucked this year.  Have you heard that before?  Yeah, thought so.  Preseason Ranked #16 for Shortstops, 2011 Projections:  65/17/80/.255, Final Numbers:  68/21/86/.299

7. Pablo Sandoval – In the preseason, I compared him to an in-his-prime Lyle Overbay.  Still sounds about right.  Before you scoff, scoffer.  Lyle Overbay’s best year 82/22/92/.312/5 was better than this year by Sandoval.  Preseason Rank #13, 2011 Projections:  70/18/80/.305/3, Final Numbers:  55/23/70/.315/2

8. Mark Reynolds – Went over Reynolds in the top 20 1st basemen post.

9. Ryan Roberts – Went over Roberts in the top 20 2nd basemen for 2011 fantasy baseball post.

10. Evan Longoria – I may still rank Longoria in the 1st round next year.  Absolutely nothing changed for him except his luck fell off the map.  If it wasn’t for bad luck, he would’ve had no luck at all.  His K-rate actually went down, his walk rate went up, his HR/FB% stayed where it should be.  I may even pick him to win the MVP next year.  I will probably say some variation of the preceding a dozen times this offseason, so if you missed this, don’t worry.  And if you read the preceding, forget it so it seems fresh the next twelve times I say it.  Preseason Rank #1, 2011 Projections:  105/33/115/.280/10, Final Numbers: 78/31/99/.244/3

11. Edwin Encarnacion – On one hand, I can’t believe Encarnacion ranked this high.  On the other hand, it’s more of an indictment of the 3rd basemen because his numbers don’t look that good.  On a third lesser known hand that is actually a mitten on the end of a broomstick, he was valuable in the 2nd half of the year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  70/17/55/.272/8

12. Chipper Jones – He didn’t go unranked in the preseason because I overlooked him.  He was coming off a year when he nearly retired from injuries.  In fact, I think he did retire then decided to come back, if I remember it correctly.  Whatever.  Glass Chipper hits when he’s healthy but that ‘when’ is the size of King Kong Bundy.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  56/18/70/.275/2

13. Alex Rodriguez – It totally bit me in the ass saying I wanted a 3rd baseman in the first two rounds of last year’s drafts.  3rd base was my cross to bear, or bare if you’re a nudist.  A-Rod, Wright and Zimmerman were off the charts terrible.  Sure, A-Rod had the decency to get injured so you could replace him, but who were you replacing him with?  Wilson Betemit?  David Freese?  Bleh and Belch.  Preseason Rank #4, 2011 Projections:  90/32/110/.280/7, Final Numbers:  67/16/62/.276/4

14. Kevin Youkilis – It’s easy to say this was an off season for Youuuuuuk, but, at age 32, this could be the beginning of the end.  This is the third year in a row that he’s failed to top 136 games and the 2nd year in a row he didn’t hit 20 homers.  On a side note, here’s what I said in the preseason about Youk, “Other fantasy baseball ‘perts will say 1st base is one of the deepest positions and you shouldn’t pay for it on draft day.  …Do you feel as safe with Youuuuuk as you would with, say, Te(i)x?  I wouldn’t.  Do you feel as safe with Morneau as Fielder?  Do you feel as safe with Dunn as you do with any of the first basemen in the 1st tier?  And this is only one tier down.”  And that’s me quoting me!  Sure, that was about 1st basemen, but it mentioned Youk so I included it here.  Sue me for your zero dollar subscription fee.  Preseason Rank #8 for 1st basemen, 2011 Projections:  95/27/95/.300/5, Final Numbers:  68/17/80/.258/3

15. David Wright – It wasn’t just that the 3rd basemen were bad this year, but it was worse than that.  The good 3rd basemen weren’t just less good so you still got some draft value.  Across the board, 3rd basemen killed you.  For the first time, I felt like Wright didn’t care either.  I get it, you can go 1-for-4 with a run.  How about you hit a home freakin’ run?!  I think Metco is in his head too.  If the Mets move the fences in only one foot, but told him they moved the fences in thirty feet it would have the same impact on his power.  Preseason Rank #2, 2011 Projections:  95/30/105/.285/17, Final Numbers:  60/14/61/.254/13

16. Daniel Murphy – Went over Murphy in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

17. Albert Callaspo – Was about as steady a performer as you can find with his 3 homer, 3 steal 1st half and 3 homer, 5 steal 2nd half.  This was an illustration of how being steady isn’t always a good thing.  Callaspo may have to replace Polanco in the yawnstipating definition.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  54/6/46/.288/8

18. Ryan Zimmerman – If a player’s season can be summed up by the company he’s keeping on the year-end rankings, look at the players around Zimmerman.  Callaspo’s above him!  Daniel Murphy had a better season than Zimmerman and he stopped playing on August 7th!  I’d say 2011 was a step back for Zimmerman, but it was more like a step back, then he fell into a ditch, then someone popped a squat above him and crapped on his head.  On a side note, I’m way off on a lot of these 3rd basemen projections, but I guarantee you all ‘perts are off with these guys.  No one could’ve told you Wright, Zimmerman, etc would’ve been this bad.  I only mention this because I think it’s ridiculous some people charge for their projections.  I could pretty much tell you what any player is going to do assuming their healthy, barring a few here and there like Bautista.  But guys like Bautista are me going on a limb.  I could’ve told you 35 homers and a .280 average like everyone else and been less wrong, but what fun is that?  Now someone help me down from my soapbox.  Preseason Rank #3, 2011 Projections:  90/32/100/.285/5, Final Numbers:  52/12/49/.289/3

19. Martin Prado – Went over him in the top 20 2nd basemen post.

20. Chase Headley – If you ever wondered to yourself whether or not 3rd base was really as bad as it seemed this year, notice Chase Headley making the top 20.  Then notice he had 4 home runs on the year.  He only hit one homer at home all year.  All year!  On the positive side, he outperformed Casey McGehee.  Recurring Theme, “The third basemen were really bad this year.”  Preseason Rank #15, 2011 Projections:  70/15/85/.255/7, Final Numbers:  43/4/44/.289/13