The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2024 fantasy baseball rankings. That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies. It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown. I refuse to draft a top starter where they are usually drafted. Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth. In most leagues, there’s a ton of pitchers on waivers that can help you — all year. Not just in April. With the help of the Stream-o-Nator, you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest. (By the by, Razzball Subscriptions are now open. Early subscribers get Rudy’s War Room, which I haven’t drafted without in about five years, and it’s worth the price of a subscription alone.) There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck. Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to change, depending on which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can score runs. Finally, the best starters only give you four categories. The best hitters can give you five categories. Here’s Steamer’s 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Hitters and 2024 Fantasy Baseball Projections for Pitchers. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball:
NOTE I: All my rankings are currently available on Patreon for the price of a Starbucks coffee, if you get one of those extra grande frappuccino jobbers. Don’t wait for the rankings to come out over the next month, and get them all now.
NOTE II: Free agents are listed as just that and not yet projected. Once a guy signs, I will write out their blurb and add in projections, or remove them, if they sign in an unfavorable place. They are ranked currently where I think they might be if they sign on for a full-time job.
NOTE III: Watch BDon and me discuss the top 20 starters:
1. Spencer Strider – Already went over him in the top 20 for 2024 fantasy baseball.
2. Corbin Burnes – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Wheeler. I call this tier, “Hanging out with Neil, Patrick, Harris.” I do the rankings and write-ups in the order you see them: top 10, top 20, then catchers and around the horn. I tell you this to try to properly express how excited I am to finally get to talk about pitchers. Imagine you’re 75 words into a blurb about Michael Conforto and you’re like, “Can I please just write about velocity for, like, ten minutes?” I know I have the best pitcher rankings, and I wonder if it’s not slightly because I’m so eager to dig into pitching after a month of my time writing about hitting. Yes, what you read over the course of two weeks takes me twice as long. Any hoo! Pitching! *breathes in* Smell it up, baby! Smell it up! It smells great, right? It sure does! Okay, now don’t draft any of the guys in this tier. Allow me to explain.
Your buddy tells you to meet him at this place, because Neil Patrick Harris is gonna be there, and you’re like, “Holy crap, Doogie Howser, that’s amazing!” You rush over there with some memorabilia for him to sign that you plan on keeping and not immediately putting on eBay because you are a stan, as the kids say, then you get there, and it’s three guys named Neil, Patrick and Harris. That disappointment is what you will have when you draft one of the guys in this tier.
Now for a diatribe I give every year, “If these starters were to fall in drafts to where I’m willing to draft a starter, I will draft any and/or all of them. It’s not about them as much as it’s about their draft slot. Sure, I have actual problems with some starters, which I’ll get to, but if Strider or Burnes or any of these guys fell to around 50th overall in a draft? Sure, at that point, you have to draft one, because I would be drafting a starter by then. (Thank you for not laughing too loud when I said Burnes or Wheeler (or Strider) would fall to pick 50.) For unstints, I always draft a starter around 50th overall (give or take ten picks, depending on size of league and rules), so if I’m in a draft with eleven other Greys and we’re sitting there discussing boba and how we’re totally Swifties and just general BS’ing, and all of us forget to draft a starter, I’d draft Strider at 50th overall, then Burnes, etc. So, this is a ranking of my starters, it’s just unrealistic for me to say I’m actually drafting these guys. They’ll be gone before I’m willing to draft a starter. Yes, I love the pitchers in this tier. They are great. There, I said it. But I will never roster them. You’ve read some form of this before from me. The names change, but it’s same general gist. By the way, my high school band, General Gist, was so rocking in the general vicinity of a crowd!
Last year, this tier I told you to avoid was: Burnes, Cole, Woodruff, Cease, Sandy Alcantara and Shane McClanahanananananananananan. Burnes and Cole were fine, how did the others do? I’m genuinely curious. I was hit on the head and trying to find info on Woodruff, Cease, Sandy Alcantara and Shane McClanahanananananananananan. Were they good? I’m guessing they were and everyone was happy to ignore my advice. Shucks, you got me again!
Last year if you rostered Sonny Gray, Justin Steele, Kodai Senga, Jesus Luzardo and Bassitt, you would’ve walked away with your league’s pitching categories and not drafted any top starters. Am I cherrypicking? Yes, just like you could’ve cherrypicked last year’s pitchers based on my suggestions!
You could’ve had Sonny Gray, Justin Steele, Kodai Senga, Jesus Luzardo and Bassitt and not drafted one starter before 50th overall.
Yes, I brought out the repeat in bold to emphasize.
In some leagues, you could do fine NOT drafting ANY starters. Yes, I brought out the caps.
I’m not only talking about H2H leagues where you can carry only relievers. I’m talking 10 or 12-team roto leagues, where you can stream starters. Maybe you roster one starter and stream five spots. Maybe you roster two guys and stream four spots. Maybe you drink seven cups of coffee and stream all day. Even if you want to draft an entire rotation and hold them (or try to), you don’t need a guy from this tier. There’s plenty of options later to fill out your rotation so you’re competitive in leagues where you can’t stream. I’m not suggesting you Reggie Roby starters. I’m telling you to Reggie Roby top starters. Concentrate on your hitting while these guys are being drafted.
It’s like this every year. Without fail. In the preseason, everyone will be telling you that you need a top starter, some people might even tell you that you need two top starters. What they never say, or purposely fail to mention is how every year there’s starters in the “top starters” who weren’t there a year ago, so you could’ve had a top starter without paying for one. I told you to draft Justin Steele in every league last year even writing a sleeper post; draft Luzardo, I said, and wrote a sleeper on him too; Kodai Senga, I said, draft and I said I’m surprised I didn’t write a sleeper on him and I chirped about that for months, shocked at how low Senga was going, Bassitt and Sonny Gray were guys I loved. Every year I tell you who to draft later, then the following year all of those starters are in the top 20. You think this is an accident? Just luck? Look at my rankings from previous years. You didn’t need Cole, Burnes, Strider or others last year, and you don’t need these guys this year.
There’s dozens of starters to roster, and you need at most six. For whatever reason, everyone forgets how many starters are available later. Zach Eflin wasn’t even drafted in most leagues! (Coolwhip wrote a sleeper post on him in the preseason, by the way, and natch.) People always tell you that you need a starter in the 1st couple of rounds. You do not.
I’m being 100% serious when I tell you that if someone tells you that you need a top starter, you should question everything they tell you. If they tell you to draft two aces, then you should make an anonymous call for help. They need it.
As for Burnes, don’t make me repeat all of the guys in the 1st tier of pitching last year who seemed totally fine and are no longer in the 1st tier of pitching. This first tier of pitching seems cursed. Would I make an actual money bet that Burnes will be sidelined by July and barely make the top 20 starters next year? No, not real money. But if we’re talking fake money, I’d consider that bet. It is considerably odd that people who draft top starters are still like, “Guy with declining velocity, strikeouts and worst ERA of his career? Yeah, sign me up!” Do everyone, but mostly yourself, a favor and ignore this tier. UPDATE: Traded to the Orioles. Peter Angelos just sold the Orioles a few days prior, saying to the new owners, “Treat this team with the respect she deserves. Every part of her. Down to the staples on this contract. By the way, if you don’t need the staples, I usually take them out and save them so I can use them again down the road. Crazy the amount of people that discard perfectly good staples. I have one staple I used on a court document — someone was suing me for back pay — and I used that one staple, like, sixteen more times.”
So, the AL East just got even stronger. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a 100-win team come in 3rd in the AL East, and an 84-win team win the AL Central. Goofy stuff, indeed. The deal itself was:
Feels light for the Brewers but you have to figure the owner signed off on it for one reason https://t.co/4XJMEzMK4J pic.twitter.com/vf61SEjdk3
— Razzball (@Razzball) February 2, 2024
And I’m sure Itch will be along to break down the prospects, but seems ridiculously short on return. Burnes, on the other hand, is an ace. This doesn’t change him. If anything, it strengthens him because Camden Miles is such a huge park. Still wouldn’t draft him, but I imagine this will only make it harder for some people. 2024 Projections: 13-6/3.27/1.05/209 in 194 IP
3. Zack Wheeler – Ya know what’s going on right now with starters? A similar thing to hitting. As I mentioned numerous times in the top 10 for 2024 fantasy baseball (and other rankings posts), there’s Acuña and everyone else. Here, there’s Strider and everyone else. Pitching is Chicago without Peter Cetera. They had Look Away, which was their final single to reach number one. It’s also called Look Away, which you might be humming to yourself when these guys appear in your draft. Then Chicago had a bunch of catchy tunes, but nothing worth calling up mom and being like, “I’m sleeping over Jimmy McRascal’s house,” then sleeping in your El Camino, listening to Hard To Say I’m Sorry and bawling your eyes out because Suzy cheated on you with Ryan. Stupid freakin’ Ryan!
Pitching is related to hitting also in that there’s a ton of 30/30 candidates, and offense is killing it, as TJ Lavin would say, so pitching is, “Please don’t put any guys on 1st base, because that it an automatic triple.” With that in mind, pitching is also: Strikeout a bunch of guys and walk very few, and maybe good things will happen, but these guys still have kinda high ERAs. That’s Wheeler in a nutshell. By the way, whoever called it a jockstrap and not a nutshell severely dropped the ball, so to speak. 2024 Projections: 15-7/3.31/1.06/207 in 191 IP
4. Kevin Gausman – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Gallen. I call this tier, “Fill my holes with dry rice to reduce moistness.” I imagine by now you are moist for starters. Well, before you fill your holes with dry rice to reduce moistness, I have a special treat for you: You can begin to draft starters. See, that wasn’t too long, was it? Great, I didn’t think so either, and I could tell you were overflowing with moistness, so I’m happy to tell you starters are now available. But you might want to chew on a sanitary napkin or rub deodrant on your forehead, because it might actually be longer before you can draft a starter. Here’s the thing, and, yes, there’s always a thing. I will absolutely draft someone in this tier, but I won’t reach for them. If they make it to around 50 overall, or under $30, then I’d happily draft one to reduce my moistness, and remove the dry rice from my holes. See, I don’t punt all starters, just the very top ones. Just don’t reach for one of these guys. Also, I’m using the same tier names as previous years so I can transfer over my Pitching Draft Tool with relative ease. You’ll get over your outrage.
As for Gausman, you know what’s a little weird this year? The starters with the biggest red flags? Are the first four. Well, not the biggest red flags out of anyone, I’m not talking Lucas Giolito. I mean from this first dozen or so starters. Price plays into it, but do I want Gausman or Cole? Gausman by a mile. Gausman in the top 15 overall or Cole? No. Absolutely not. That’s why I’m saying price comes into play. Get on that PCP, it’s what it’s all about! Price Comes into Play was the PCP I was referring to. Was that not clear before I explained? Gausman has a 11.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9 and much lower walk rates in the past. Gausman has a pitch (splitter) that he throws almost 40% of the time and it has a .176 xBA. I am cackling. Even if you move to actual BAA it’s .201. Stop it. 2024 Projections: 15-6/3.12/1.16/228 in 191 IP
5. Luis Castillo – Going off what I said for Gausman and his splitter, Castillo has a 4-seamer that he throws 44% of the time and it had a .183 xBA and .165 BAA! If I was cackling after Gausman, prepare to hear me roar in laughter. What is that even? Just throwing your fastball with nutty results, okay, don’t mind if I do! In the big picture pitcher (big pitcher picture?), I don’t know if you can actually draft this tier. From what I’ve seen in some leagues is pitchers are going a mile a minute from the 3rd round through the 5th. I drafted Gausman in my first draft of the year at pick 32, which is one of the earliest I’ve ever drafted a pitcher, but A) I wouldn’t pick again until pick 59, and no one would be left, I feared (and I was right). B) It was a 15-team league with no waivers, that is a lot different than your standard 10 or 12-team league with waivers. C) There’s no C. 2024 Projections: 13-7/3.28/1.07/206 in 188 IP
6. Freddy Peralta – The best thing you can do when ranking starters is to cover their names. Just look at the jump in velocity to 94.5 MPH from 92.7, the springboard back to the 11.4 K/9, the dazzle under the 3 BB/9 and the rising (ironically) ground ball rate and you have a guy who is still 27 years old, who is about to take a step even further forward, and he was already an ace. That’s FreddyKBB with his alligator blood. Random Prediction Alert! FreddyKBB is about to have a top three starter year, and be drafted as such next year. By the way, if you ever say “as such” out loud, anyone hearing you has the permission to punch you. 2024 Projections: 15-5/3.52/1.14/224 in 178 IP
7. George Kirby – As I will say now and again and again and–well, you get it–with the new rules, it is of the utmost importance — higher importance than never drinking anything larger than a small Charged Lemonade at Panera Bread — pitchers need to limit baserunners. The easiest way to do that is by limiting walks. Number two easiest way is luring hitters down into what they think is a dark room, then locking them into what turns out to be a closet so they miss their turn at-bat. Kirby limits walks better than anyone. With his walks limiting capability, Kirby doesn’t need to lock hitters into closets, put a cloth soaked in chloroform over hitters’ mouths or strike out a ton, and he still sniffs a 9 K/9. He could tiptoe through games with a 6 K/9, and he’d be a low-ratio guy. If he can up his strikeouts to above 9+ K/9, he’s going to win a Cy Young. 2024 Projections: 13-8/3.07/1.02/177 in 188 IP
8. Pablo Lopez – Going back to what I said in the Wheeler blurb about how it’s Chicago without Cetera, i.e., how it’s Acuña and everyone else but here Strider and everyone else, this tier of pitching is huge. You should be able to grab one guy in the 45 to 55 overall range. If not, there’s the next tier that’s fine for a number one too. (Three, four, five, hey, I’m the Count!) Just like there’s a ton of 30/30 possibilities on hitters, there’s a ton of possible aces for pitching. Pitching may not be stacked with a shizzton of 2.50 ERA guys who will throw 220 IP and 250+ Ks, but there’s so many 3.30 ERA guys, who will throw 180-200 IP and 200-ish Ks. It’s not a bad time to draft pitching, it’s just slightly different than only a few years ago. Pab-Lo has four pitches he can go to (five pitches thrown, but the 5th is a little janky). You only need, like, two good pitches! (More on Pab-Lo in the Glasnow blurb, that’s worth noting.) 2024 Projections: 14-9/3.39/1.09/216 in 186 IP
9. Zac Gallen – I tried my damnedest to not like Gallen this year, so I could be contrary, but he has a 3.21 ERA in 667 1/3 IP. He’s lucky it wasn’t 666 IP, because I would’ve got spooked, and made-up a fake reason to not like him. “Gallen had his worst ERA in July, the longest month of daylight in the year. You really wanna suffer through that?” That’s me making up a fake reason. Alas, everything I see with Gallen says he’s one of the most predictable top starters. The ceiling is a little lower than the guys above him, but only barely, and if you’re looking for safe vs. sexy, while still being very close to sexy, then Gallen is your man. Hopefully, he works on his July. 2024 Projections: 13-6/3.33/1.09/202 in 195 IP
10. Logan Webb – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Yamamoto. I call this tier, “Eat your ideal lover’s weight in cookie dough.” The tier name is a self-help tip. Much like any pizza can be a personal pan pizza with some dedication. Or wait until midnight on Valentine’s Day, go to Wal-Mart and buy 50% off candy so you can gorge yourself. Another self-help tip for a person is drafting a starting pitcher. So, stop reading, Who Moved My String Cheese, get off your butt and draft a starter! Now!
As for Webb, there’s a case to be made he’s in no way different than George Kirby. Only thing that really separates them, as far as I can tell, is Kirby has some vague sense of upside, but Webb has just as much chance to out-perform Kirby. Basically, they’re Logeorge Kibby. Last year, Webb went 8.1 K/9, 1.3 BB/9 and a 2.95 xFIP (3.25 ERA). I could make the case, based on one stat, Webb is better than Kirby. That stat: The number of times a pitcher has complained about throwing too many pitches in a close game. Anything over one is a negative. Kidding. The one stat is number of pitches a batter swings at inside the zone. Since both players have incredible command, which is better? A high or low number of swings at balls in the zone? I think I’d take a low number. It doesn’t matter if the hitter is missing, but it’s interesting how Webb is the 2nd least number of balls swung out in the zone, considering he throws all his pitches in the zone. As you can imagine, Webb easily leads the league on Called Strikes, which is the actual one stat I should’ve quoted, but decided to go around the mulberry bush. 2024 Projections: 13-7/3.19/1.06/186 in 205 IP
11. Jesus Luzardo – Likely the biggest difference between ADP and my rankings (on a positive note). Let’s say he had four extra wins last year (14 vs. 10), then he would’ve been the 17th best starter last year, same as Pab-Lo. So, if you think my Luzardo ranking is too high, you have to think my Pab-Lo ranking is too high. If you think my Pab-Lo ranking is too high, you should have a word with my Kirby, Skubal and FreddyKBB ranking too. In fact, print this post out and use it for toilet paper, you giant jerk!
Last year, Luzardo had 10/5 K/9, 2.8 BB/9 and a 3.58 ERA (3.72 xFIP). He had the 9th lowest Contact%, behind Cease and in front of Castillo and Pab-Lo. Cease walks so many more guys than those other pitchers that he’s nowhere to be found in the top starters, but you might remember, when Cease walked fewer guys, he was a top 10 starter. Luzardo is the third lowest Contact% on balls, behind Strider and Snell. He elicits the 19th most swings, so people are swinging and missing and missing and missing. He has the 17th lowest contact on balls in the zone too. He has the 6th best Swinging Strike% just after Pab-Lo and FreddyKBB. Luzardo is an ace, people just aren’t drafting him like it. Yet. Next year they will. 2024 Projections: 13-6/3.41/1.12/214 in 182 IP
12. Logan Gilbert – If you’re a lover and not a fighter, you’ll see Logan Gilbert is 13th on the 15-team rankings and he was 14th last year. “Yeah, I see LoGi, but I don’t LoGi, see, because you lack logic with your rankings and I just rocked your world with wordplay.” Fine, don’t draft Gilbert here. Do, as you please. But, what I keep telling you is low walk rates are the way forward for now, until there’s a new rule change or we see some way defenses have figured out how to combat every walk turns into a triple. My strategy would be fill in the dirt between 1st and 2nd with quicksand, but no matter how times I write to teams with my suggestion, no one responds. It was as recently as last year that 8-9 K/9 pitchers with an under-2 BB/9 were considered strong number twos. Now they are number ones. Times, they be changin’. 2024 Projections: 13-6/3.46/1.09/190 in 194 IP
13. Tarik Skubal – It’s nice to see the Tigers finally develop another great starter. Now trade him to the Astros for Jake Meyers and watch as he wins a Cy Young after Cy Young. Any hoodle, Skubal’s numbers are a bunch of dazzlers: 11.4 K/9, 1.6 BB/9, 2.56 xFIP, great home park, and increased velocity from 94-ish to 96-ish. That’s the ish, all right! I love him! Draft him everywhere and prepare to say cha-ching repeatedly. Dot dot dot. For 150 IP. His one drawback appears that he can’t throw anywhere close to 200 IP. In today’s game, that’s fine. No one really throws 200 IP anymore, but it’s worth noting that if you’re going Skubal as your ace, you’re getting less IP than, say, the person drafting Gilbert. 2024 Projections: 10-8/3.09/1.02/183 in 154 IP
14. Yoshinobu Yamamoto – Here’s what I said this offseason, “The Dodgers have spent more than $1.1 billion this winter with the signings of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Shohei Ohtani and Tyler Glasnow. Eight teams haven’t spent a million. Is this [watches a butterfly flap out of one’s hand] competitive balance? So, the Mets’ owner Steve Cohen flew to Japan, took Yamamoto out to dinner and Yamamoto went home with the Dodgers. [searching PornHub for cuckold, seeing a video of Steve Cohen paying the check for Yamamoto’s dinner] Damn, that’s brutal. Yamamoto was also rumored to possibly be on the Giants’ radar, but Yoshinobu saw a news report of a smash and grab at a vape shop in The Castro, and decided against San Francisco. Ouch. As I believe I said before, how about rather than the Dodgers buying free agents, they just get all the free agents and tell us which ones they don’t want. Might be easier that way.
As I said a lot of times last year when I was begging people to draft Kodai Senga, Japan has professional baseball leagues. Is it exactly the same talent as MLB? No, but it’s not some iffy league played with a beach ball and underhand pitching. Look at what Ohtani is doing in the majors, look at what Senga just did, look back at Ichiro, look back at Darvish; the guys who are superstars there, will be superstars here. Yamamoto is a superstar. Last year he won the pitching Triple Crown in Japan. That was his third year in a row doing that. No one else had accomplished that before in Japan, and he won his in three years consecutively. Excuse me, [places handkerchief to forehead] I’m about to faint. Last year, after winning the World Baseball Classic with his countrymen, in a tourney where he dominated, he went out and threw 171 IP with a 1.21 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. He only had a 9.3 K/9, and they’re not analogous at all, but to do a super sloppy comparison, Ohtani had better Ks in Japan, and Yamamoto has had better command and stamina (likely because he’s not also hitting). Another sloppy comparison is he could be George Kirby with more strikeouts. Yamamoto is likely the best Japanese pitcher we’ve ever seen. He’s an ace. With his projections, I’m being incredibly conservative. Upside is here in droves.” And that’s me quoting me! 2024 Projections: 13-5/3.21/1.04/149 in 156 IP
15. Aaron Nola – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Framber, but continue onto the top 40 starters for 2024 fantasy baseball, if you dare — muahahahahaha! I call this tier, “Wearing flip-flops with socks.” There’s just no excuse for wearing socks with flip-flops unless you are a Polish immigrant or you just took off your shoes and were asked to take out the garbage. Anywhere else with socks and flips-flops is strictly prohibited. That’s this tier, strictly prohibited. To give you some context, last year this tier of guys to avoid was deGrom, Bieber, Ohtani (the pitcher) and Urias. You can take that as a three for four, depending on if you could start Ohtani as a pitcher, and it wasn’t a weekly league. Their final marks on the Player Rater last year were 121, 92, 24 and 54, respectively. For starters! That’s not overall! DeGrom was the 121st best starter, Bieber the 92nd and so on! If you’re in this tier, good luck!
As for Nola, he re-signed with the Phils and I thought that was a good move. For real baseball. Are we playing real baseball? Okay, it might’ve confused you, since you’re scratching yourself and you see players do that. It still doesn’t mean we’re playing real baseball. I wonder if anyone drafting Nola as their ace has ever watched a game where he pitches. If you want a guy who looks great for five innings, only giving up two runs, then gives up a 3-run homer in the 6th to leave down five to three, then by all means! There is some sorta Saberhagenmetrics thing going on where Nola is great for homers allowed (and thus for ERA) every other year and he’s due in 2024, but if you’re drafting based on that then, well, as the kids say that’s based all right. 2024 Projections: 13-10/3.77/1.11/206 in 191 IP
16. Blake Snell – He looks like such a trap, which might be why it’s taking someone so long to sign him. Such an obvious trap. I’m seeing more patterns than Mel Gibson on the set of Signs between takes when someone ordered lox and bagels, but look at his two Cy Young years, and the four years between. He wasn’t bad during those four years, per se, but “per se” the French lifter of words, is doing some heavy lifting. 2020, was a joke year, but 2019 (year after 1st Cy) he had a 4.29 ERA and 4.20 in 2021. Does that mean this year he will fall into the same rut? I don’t know, but how much you wanna pay to find out? Maybe those patterns that I’m seeing are nothing. He did throw 180 IP last year, which is a good sign. Last time he did that was [don’t say it, don’t say it, don’t say it] his Cy Young year in 2018! Damn it!! UPDATE: Signed with the Giants. Blake Snell can opt out of his contract after this year. Yeah, yeah. Smart stuff. Test the market. Who knows, maybe he can win 30 games, another Cy Young, the World Series and then wait until 3 days before the season to sign a one-year deal. Park’s good, division isn’t great, yet he’s been great and awful in equal measures whether the park is good or not or if the division is good or not. What I said before the update still applies. I’m out, but glad he signed finally. 2024 Projections: 12-8/3.74/1.21/194 in 156 IP
17. Tyler Glasnow – Here’s what I said this offseason, “This year MLB is taking a different approach. Rather than having different teams, it’s the Dodgers and everyone else. That group of misfits over there sharing a glove? That’s the non-Dodgers. Over here, the boat with everyone else you might remember from All-Star Games and similar fanfare? That’s the Dodgers. Yeah, the boat that says on its hull, “Will sink in the playoffs.” That’s them. Los Angeles is now going to have unhoused baseball players. Drive under a bridge and see Chris Taylor. So, love me some Tyler Glasnow. He looks like Cillian Murphy without the over-ambitious gaffer lighting in Oppenheimer. True story, I found out this winter I have the same dog walker as Christopher Nolan. Unlike my dog, Nolan’s dog has to compete with the guy under his gaffer as their both Best Boys. Little film humor. Any hoo! Glasnow’s someone who I want on my teams if we’re drafting him about three to four rounds later than he’s going. If he fell late, then I’m not opposed to a little tackle and snag, as they say in British drafts, but I’ve been seeing him go way before I’m willing to touch him. He’s never thrown more than 120 IP in a MLB season. He’s been in the majors for eight seasons. I don’t want to wish injury on him, but y’all ostrichin’ing your heads into the sand thinking there won’t be an injury. In Glasnow’s favor, Pablo Lopez had shoulder injuries in three of four years (2018-19, 2021) and now has the 11th most IP since 2022, so maybe Glasnow will be fine, but you’re braver than I by drafting him like he’s some guarantee. Sometimes I’ll see Glasnow get drafted I wonder if that person has completely forgotten this past and future blurb from me, ‘Glasnow pulled with two runners on in the bottom of the 4th.'” And that’s me copying and pasting me! 2024 Projections: 11-7/3.07/1.04/171 in 131 IP
18. Max Fried – I had Fried as high as 12th overall for starters, and in a favorable tier, but I kept going back to his forearm strain that sidelined him for three months. Kick me out of IHOP because I am waffling! I wanted to be all carefree and Lucy Goosey, prancing around, drafting dangerous starters, but I couldn’t pull the trigger for myself, so I can’t in good conscience tell you to do it. Could Fried be good? His projections would seem to think so. Unlike most of the guys in this tier, I am less sure on Fried, because he returned after being sidelined and looked great in the 2nd half. Just feels like you’re forgetting a big piece, which is last May he was having a staring contest with Tommy John surgery. The surgery blinked first, but what if next time Fried blinks? 2024 Projections: 12-3/2.94/1.10/142 in 154 IP
19. Framber Valdez – Maybe because I rostered him last year, but I see Framber going in the top 15 starters and I can’t help remember how badly I wanted to drop him in the 2nd half. When he was clearly hiding an injury of some sort, Framber had a 4.66 ERA in the 2nd half; his Ks went into the compost heap; his walks were egregious, and I don’t bring out the Johnnie Cochran “egregious” often. His homers went up, up and away; his sinker went from a pitch he threw 51.6% of the time in April at 95.2 MPH to 38.2% of the time in September at 94.7 MPH, and he was equally atrocious in the postseason. Want a guy who looks like he’s not making it out of Spring Training with a mysterious arm injury? Look no further! 2024 Projections: 10-9/3.57/1.18/154 in 151 IP
20. Zach Eflin – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until the top 40 starters. I call this tier, “Bon varyäge.” The tier name is what you say when you’re taking a number two in a fancy joint. You want a cheap number one? Well, that ship has sailed, but how about an expensive number two? I will go over how to draft starters when I do my pairings post, but this tier is essentially when you think your number one might be a little weak, and you wanna bulk up on a strong number two.
As for Eflin, strong case to be made he’s just another Kirby/Webb. A Kibby. Yo, Eflin, you a Kibby? He nods, and says, “I never put the toilet seat up and look how clean it is.” Wow, what control! You can’t spell command without damn! So, he isn’t that different from the Kibbys, but the difference is track record, which is weak, since Eflin is a 4.28 ERA career pitcher in 837 IP. I trust the Rays, and what we saw last year from Eflin, which is why he’s this high, but I still want a discount for his career track record. 2024 Projections: 12-7/3.66/1.06/182 in 187 IP
CONTINUE TO THE TOP 40 STARTERS
