Alright everyone, get ready. It’s time to hole yourself up inside your house even when it’s sunny and think long and deep thoughts about things that really don’t mean anything. But being fantasy baseballers (Grey’s mom’s term!), you’re already doing this more often than not so you won’t even need to limber up. So the question today, kids, is what’s the cutoff point for bad team facing ‘x’ pitcher equals good to great pitching stats? Hrm, that didn’t sound very philosophical, let’s try again. What’s the sound of one fan base not clapping? If a team sucks in Philadelphia and no one is there to watch it, does it make a sound? There, that’s better. Ponder on, you ponderers. I’ll be here while you insert your thinking emoji down in the comments at me. PS, it just shows up as a couple of weird squares if it shows up at all. The latter is absolutely fine when your user name is ‘Eat A D@#$, Sky’ cuz you’ve already told us all what everyone was already thinking. But where were we? Oh yeah, the answer to said question is ‘the sound of your pen breaking as you write Tommy Joseph into your cleanup spot on a regular basis’. The Phillies tricked the baseball world that doesn’t pay attention to stats into thinking they were good for a few weeks to start the year. It was a fun ride while it lasted guys but now that it’s over, let’s look at said stats and why we should care. The Phils are a mediocre offense but when they face a lefty? Whew…Philly comes in second to last in wRC+ at 62 and give you a 23.8% K rate when facing a southpaw. With that, in steps Robbie Ray. Ray not only gets the bonus of stepping out of Chase Field where he owns a 5.89 ERA to the road where it’s 3.06, he also gets to be a lefty who already owns a 10.17 K/9 for the year. Basically, on Saturday, all the regular season articles are gonna lead with ‘pick up Robbie Ray!’ and you’ll be like, ‘Fool, it was the Phillies and he’s in Toronto next. DELETE YOUR ACCOUNT.’ Ok, maybe that’s just me. Anyhoo, starting Ray at $8,400 promises Ks o’plenty and I’m comfortable in all formats rolling him out there. But let’s stop thinking deep thoughts and get on with being shallow as we’re wont to be. And with that, here’s my God is dead hot taeks for this Friday DK slate…

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 20th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 20th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Tue 8/5
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | OAK

Just Damn.  Just Doh.  Just Don’t-tell-me-he’s-out-for-the-year.  Just Depression.  Just Difficulty-feeling-happiness.  Just Dis-stress-is-stressing-me-out.  Just D-negative-words-in-the-thesaurus.  Just Dissolvent.  Just Did-you-say-dissolvent?  Just Don’t-stop-hugging-me-with-your-eyes-Ted-I-can’t-be-alone-right-now.  A fractured elbow for J.D. Martinez.  It happened when he ran into a wall.  Apparently, the wall doesn’t own him.  I hate you, wall!  “If he dies, he dies.”  Oh my God, the wall is imitating Ivan Drago!  I knew it!  The wall is a Russian super-villain.  Martinez will head for a CT scan.  I don’t know how long he’ll be out with a fractured elbow, but it sounds like it will be a while.  Let’s join in the shape of a parallelogram and pray.   Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Over the past decade, Cole Hamels has been one of the best pitchers in Major League Baseball. Many of his key statistics, such as strikeout and walk rates, ERA, WHIP, total wins, and innings pitched per start, compare favorably to other aces like Zack Greinke, David Price, and Jon Lester over that span. He’s a three time All-Star, a former World Series MVP, and he even threw a no-hitter in his last start with the Phillies before being traded to the Texas Rangers last July. He purposely drilled a young Bryce Harper with a pitch during Harper’s rookie season to warn the kids to stay off of his lawn. Old school! Hamels was a key player in helping the Rangers reach the postseason last year, and is one of the main reasons that his team is currently in first place in the AL West this season. His Bugs Bunny changeup has been one of the most dominant pitches in the game throughout his career. This is all fantastic, so why does it sound like there’s a “but” coming? That’s not necessarily the case. No need to be so negative. However, as great as Hamels has been, his 33rd birthday is just around the corner, and he’s thrown almost 2,200 combined regular and postseason innings throughout his MLB career. That’s a lot of wear and tear. At this point in his career, a fair question to ask would be: Is Hamels still the same dominant pitcher that he’s always been? Or is age and/or all of the wear and tear starting to catch up with him?

Let’s take a look at Hamels’ profile to determine if he’s still capable of producing at an elite level. Here are a few observations:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

REL baseball logo newThe REL post is back, and we’ve got a team streaking!  Unfortunately they’re streaking in Canada, which is only safe for nudity 1-2 months out of the year.  Or else things might freeze off!  It’s like that time when you sit your kids down to watch Frozen, except you rented the one where those moron college kids get stuck on a ski lift…

The NL remains the Nats league to lose creating a little distance from the Cubs, but with a week-long offensivee outburst, look out for the Blue Jays!  They’re clipping on the Orange Birds’ heals (er, ummmm, talons) for the top spot in the AL.  Here’s how week 11 went down in the 2016 REL League:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

When J.D. Martinez really began hitting well for the Tigers, there was a lot of fishing around for where the production came from. He was a low round draft pick who had gotten himself pretty well regarded in Houston but then didn’t pan out. There’s always gonna be the whispers speculating steroids, and the people who just say he was a late bloomer. I think the answer is simple: just watch him hit. If he reminds you at all of Miguel Cabrera, his teammate, that’s because that’s who he modeled his swing after. Today, both of these guys, clones now of each other, will need to be in your lineup against the lefty Danny Duffy, and you shouldn’t think twice about it.

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 20th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Oh my God, Drew Smyly is more like Smyly Corleone.  Every time you think you’re out, he pulls you right back in.  Fredo, you went against the family, and we can’t have that.  “Smyly, is that you?  Why do you keep calling me?”  That’s Alfredo Griffin getting annoyed with Smyly Corleone.  “I made them offer at a pitch they couldn’t refuse.”  Seriously, stop Smyly Corleone!  So, there’s always one pitcher (sometimes more than one) that befuddles and seduces, seduces and befuddles.  Justin Masterson carried the torch for a while when he was Justin Masterson:  Passive Aggressive Starter.  Now, Drew Smyly seems to be carrying that same damned if you do, damned if you don’t torch.  Yesterday, his line was 6 2/3 IP, 2 ER, 4 baserunners with 12 Ks.  On the year, his K-rate and walk rate are 10.3 and 2.2.  Those are ace numbers.  Unlike a lot of other big strikeout guys and actual aces, Smyly doesn’t throw very hard and seems to tire after about two starts in a row.  His ERA on the year is 4.75, but that’s absurd, as in I will absurd you while you’re on waivers.  But, ugh, that K-rate, that walk rate, it’s hard for me to resist and if he was dropped in your league, I could see giving him another chance, but I’d be wary of matchups because I just don’t see him overpowering most teams when he’s not working on ten days rest.  He just doesn’t throw hard enough.  I.e., leave the speed gun, take the cannoli.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

So here we are more or less half way through the minor league season, Super Two has come and gone, and we wait for those sweet, sweet rookies to get the call and make an impact. More often than not my comments are filled with questions regarding who I think will have the greater impact this season, player A or player B. Today we take a look at the Top 25 prospects for 2016 impact. I’m going to start with a ranked list and follow that up with my general thoughts on the players  listed. I’m ignoring anyone already in the majors like Jameson Taillon, Blake Snell, and Tim Anderson. Things I’ve taken into consideration when building this were impact, proximity, and team situation. So understand this is not a straight top 25. It’s strictly 2016 focused, which why a prospect like Lucas Giolito is further down the list than he would be in a straight top 25 prospects for dynasty list.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

A good salesman can sell ice to an eskimo. Notice I did not say honest salesman. I also said salesman instead of salesperson. Hopefully that did not offend my one female reader. After all, she does make up ten percent of my followers. Sorry token girl reader. Back to the guy that’s going to sell you a mattress when all you came into the store for was a pillow. For years, used car salesmen have been considered the prototypical charlatan. I’m not sure if charlatan is the right word, but I really want to use it, so it’s been crowbarred into today’s post.

What in Grey’s name does this have to do with fantasy baseball? One word. Trades. When making a trade in fantasy baseball, what we are really doing is selling one or more players in return for other player(s). Your opportunity to make a favorable trade relies upon your ability to sell your players for more than they are worth, or buy your opponents players for less than they’re worth. And if you can do both, perhaps you should open a used car lot. Razzcars! They sound fast.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
My baller has a first name, it’s W-I-L.
My baller has a second name, it’s M-Y-E-R-S.
Oh I love to watch him everyday, and if you ask me why say,

This week’s No Whammies! is dedicated to Wil Myers. Is it due to the good looks, sweet swing, and old school, no batting gloves thing? Hope he doesn’t pee on his hands like Moises Alou. Or maybe it’s because he looks like a certain Game of Thrones character…

 

Naw, it’s due to the fact that he’s scored nine runs, collected 12 hits (five home runs), driven in 10, and stolen two bases in 25 at-bats over the past week. Imagine if he played on a real team. His ownership would, for sure, be over 84%. On the season, he’s hitting .292 with 40 R, 13 HR, 37 RBI, and 8 SB. He did win the AL Rookie of the Year (2013) hitting .293 with 13 home runs and five stolen bases in only 88 games. Then, the sophomore and junior slumps happened, eradicating all the non-believers from the Wil Myers train. Hello…helloo…hellooo..helloooo…So, what to make of Myers going forward. While his strikeout rate is at a decent 20.8%, his walk rate is at a career-low 6.2%. A .322 BABIP is not too crazy. What stood out to me were his contact rates. His 81% contact rate is a career-high and the outside the zone contact rate is 68.8% vs a career average of 58.6%. He’s pulling the ball at a career-low rate and going up the middle at a career-high rate. I love seeing that change, as it shows that he’s not selling out for power and letting the game come to him. The one obvious red flag is the injury concern. He has not played over 90 games in a big league season. If you’ve read any of my stuff, you know I’m a believer in C.R.E.A.M. What is Myer’s contract situation looking like? What do you know!!! He’s signed for 1 year/$523,900. Things that make you go hmmmmm.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

No, this is not a cheerleading move that requires an upside down split at the top of a human pyramid or some new fangled dessert menu item. Instead, it is a much less exciting and tasty occurrence with the pitchers throwing in Coors tonight. Typically, the intro paragraph is a great place to layout the best value of the day. Specifically, the best value pitcher of the day. Today however, it’s going to be used as a blanket statement to avoid stuffing my picks below with a ton of Yankees and Rockies hitters. Thanks to continuous interleague play (which I really can’t stand) we get a fun, little two game home and home between the Rox and the Yanks. Tonight will be game two of the Coors field showdown, which means all your Yankee starters should be good and used to the elevation and ready to drop a ton of fantasy points on poor Chad Bettis. At first glance you might think to load up on all the lefty bats the Yankees have. If you dig into Bettis’ stats a bit, though, you’ll notice that for his career (and this season) righties have actually hit him for a better average and a higher slugging percentage (.110 points higher to be exact). Some sneaky, against the grain plays might be Rob Refsnyder and Starlin Castro in the middle infield. On the other side of the rubber will be Ivan Nova who, believe it or not, also has some reverse splits going on. For his career, his platoon splits are about even, with an ever so slight nod to the righties. If you just take a look at this year so far you’ll see a .100 point uptick in OPS for righties vs. lefties. This is very rare for a right handed hurler and it’s worth noting. Most DFS players will blindly follow left/right match-ups when making a lineup decision. While it may not matter it what could be a typical Oprah-style showdown at Coors (“You get a homer, you get a homer, you get a homer…) it could also be a nice little edge for those keen enough to do some digging. Mark Reynolds and Nick Hundley may be avoided by many and could turn a nice profit tonight. Let’s see what else is cooking with today’s picks:

New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well reserve your spot in the 25 Team Razzball Exclusive League set to run Monday June 20th to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Jonathan Papelbon hit the DL and it couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.  Though, I’m using the archaic definition of nicer.  An adjective which was once described a jerk off who went to Nice, France and hurled insults.  Example, A nicer man would stand on the curb as Gerard Depardieu passed on his bicycle, screaming, “You are the fattest frog I’ve ever seen and I once force fed a frog to make frog foie gras.”  Filling in for Papelbon will be Shawn Kelley and Felipe Rivero.  Rivero is a lefty, so his best hope for saves is a 9th inning that is lefty heavy like my Facebook feed from my Bernie Sanders-supporting friends.  Of course, Dusty said he wouldn’t commit to any one replacement because Dusty’s gonna Dusty.  He cited other possible candidates to close like Blake Treinen and Sammy Solis.  I wonder if Dusty knows that’s not the slugger he once managed in Chicago.  “Sammy Solis, you came up short with McGwire, but I need you to close out this game.  By the way, go easier on the skin whitening.”  That’s Dusty while juggling the toothpick in his mouth.  Anyway, here’s what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Megadeth is one of the greatest heavy metal bands of all time. The group, which was formed and fronted by lead vocalist/guitarist (and Metallica castoff) Dave Mustaine, quickly made it’s mark on the thrash metal scene in the mid-80s and became one of the most influential bands of the genre. What does this have to do with this week’s most added player, Texas Rangers infielder Jurickson Profar (51.6% owned; +28.4% over the last seven days)? I’m certainly not implying that Profar is into, uh, “pharmaceuticals” like Mustaine was in those days. He either wouldn’t be able to walk onto the field or would quickly pack thirty pounds of muscle onto his frame if that were the case, depending on the substance in question. This is more about their respective career arcs. Megadeth’s third studio album, the conveniently titled So Far, So Good… So What!, was a solid offering. Low budget, raw, and not widely considered to be among their best work, but it was, and is, a bit of an underrated gem. It’s kind of where Profar is at this stage of his career. Young, raw, talented. A player on the rise. The 23-year-old has long been considered one of the top prospects in the game, but injuries and a crowded Texas infield (Odor, Andrus, Beltre) pushed him to the back burner entering this season. However, Odor’s suspension following his recent Floyd Mayweather impression against the Blue Jays opened the door for some unexpected playing time for Profar, and he’s taken advantage of his opportunity. Through 73 plate appearances since May 27th, Profar has produced 13 runs, 2 homers, 4 RBI, and a .343/.370/.514 slash line. However, as good as he’s looked thus far, his batted ball profile (22.2 IFFB%, 25.9% Soft%) suggests that his current .393 BABIP is likely to drop significantly in the coming weeks. That would make him more of a .275ish hitter than a .300+ one. His power is still developing, and when factoring in his lack of steals (2 career MLB steals; 5 steals over the last two seasons across all levels) and mediocre on-base skills (4.1% BB%), the breakout might have to wait. Megadeth reached their peak with their fourth studio album (the brilliant Rust In Peace), and I believe that Profar is likely a year or two away from reaching his peak as well. In other words, he should be able to help your team in it’s darkest hour, but he’s not quite ready to set the world afire just yet.

Here are a couple of other interesting adds/drops in fantasy baseball over the past week:

Please, blog, may I have some more?