We all have fears, no matter who you are, no matter what you’ve been through, you’re scared of something. It might be clowns, maybe it’s spiders, perhaps it’s being strapped to a chair Clockwork Orange style, and forced to watch a Ben Stiller movie marathon. Totally a plausible scenario, might I add. While not quite as frightening as any of the aforementioned options, I must admit, I have developed a new fear. And no it’s not the fear of Grey mistaking me for Giancarlo, and having to have him surgically removed from my toilet leg. No, that ain’t it, though I am frightened by that thought. It’s far more topical, and far less titillating. It’s the fear of covering a bad start in my weekly pitching profiles. What fate could be worse than writing up an absolute slugfest? What if the pitcher I pick is chased in less than 3 innings? What if he trips and falls jumping imaginary lines? Shizz happens, right? So to prevent this, I decided to pick out three games, record them, and use the start I like best. In my whitewashed, pre-fab world of pitching, there are no bad starts, only starters I poorly ranked. So who did I go with? Who was this lucky recipient of my barely readable prose? Well, it just so happens, I decided to go ying to last week’s yang, and cover another young AL East starter, facing the Cubs on Sunday Night baseball. That’s right, this week’s Pitcher Profile is on Yankees righty Luis Severino. Not a bad time to dive into the young flamethrower as he’s hotter than fish grease.
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HOT TAKE! Haha, everyone can get all giddy about the renaissance happening in Washington, but I’ll take my attention a little further north in the NL East. Sure, a certain Zimmerman is on pace for like 75 HR and 180 RBI, but I’m not interested in the past. Give me the future. You can take your old balls and five year plan, I’ll take the upside of a incredible prospect we’ve been waiting on for two years.
Listen, everything’s lining up for this. Curtis Granderson? He forgot how to hit. The Mets pitching staff? Essentially dead. Haha, they have Jose Reyes playing 3B. For the Mets, the future is now (watch out for Amed Rosario to get the call soon), and a primary cog for them in that movement is Michael Conforto. Finally.
If you lookout the current stats and slap line, Zimmerman’s the choice, but in projecting out the future, I’d take the younger option. Even ZiPS agrees with a 21 HR to 16 HR ROS projection in favor of Michael. (Keep reading…I’m a fan of Zimmerman, too.)
- Michael Conforto, OF, NYM (75.9% owned) – With a current line of .325/17/7/20/1 Conforto’s bringing great value since taking over an everyday role. All those numbers are in only 96 PA. Looking deeper the peripheral stats seem to be sustainable, as well, whereas guys like Zimmerman have a massively inflated BABIP and ISO. And by massively inflated I mean it’s almost double anything consistent with their careers. Conforto, though, sports a .345 BABIP and a .300 ISO. Those may drop slightly, but even if they go down to the ZiPS numbers (in 450 PA) of a .224 ISO with a .292 BABIP it gives him a season ending slash of (~).285/81/28/88/3. That’s sustainable. And greater than Zimmerman. They’re both rising, but I’ll take the young buck. And if you’re in one of the 25% of ESPN leagues where he’s not owned…change that. Fast.
ROS projections are tough. Take the savvy veteran with a lower ceiling but higher floor? Go for the risk of the young’n without the history to prove he can do it further? Find what works for your team and go for it! Here’s the Top 100 Hitters…based on my thoughts! My. Subjective. Thoughts.
They just happen to be right a lot. Ha!
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What’s and what’s good streamaholics? I was going to use the intro this week to talk about one of the many great albums I’ve been spinning on my turntable this week, but there’s been a change of plans. The Honcho household had to shift into car buying mode this week, so I’ll pen a few words on perhaps my least favorite thing in the world to do. I mean there is really nothing worse than car shopping. The whole experience is a mess, headlined by the salesmen themselves. In this day and age car salesmen are useless. Most savvy shoppers have done their homework, yet in all their glory, car sales guy (or gal) will show up in their short sleeve dress shirt or tacky dealership polo. They’ll proceed to try to steer you towards something you don’t want and definitely have no use for. “Hey, I came in for a mid-size sedan and left with a gas guzzling SUV with the Limited Edition Sports Package!” Whatever that is. What I’m saying is be vigilant out there, do your research and walk in and confidently present your offer to them. If that doesn’t work, take a dive on the floor and grab your neck. That alone will be worth a few extra pesos off the sticker price. So let me try to sell you the fantasy baseball version of a Yugo. If you don’t remember those, well we probably can’t be friends. Anyway, I’m talking about being the proud owner of a shiny share of Matt Joyce this week. Look, he’s ugly at first sight. He’s batting just .188 this season with two home runs. He’s also known for his work vs RHP, but Joyce is hitting just .159 with a .564 OPS against righties this season. Before you leave, let me tell you how durable he is…meaning what his history is vs right-handers. Joyce owns a career .196 ISO, .346 wOBA and 121 wRC+, but here’s the best part: Oakland will play six games this week and all of them will come against right-handed starters. So here’s what you do, grab a subscription to the Stream-o-Nator and Hitter-Tron and follow me on my streaming journey all season. I’ll suggest players owned in less than 50% of ESPN standard leagues all year-long and we’ll lean on the Razzball Tools to guide us through the forest.
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FantasyDraft: Ooooh That Snell, Can’t You Snell That Snell…
May 8, 2017 | DFS, FantasyDraft | 13 Commentsby: Teddy Heater
“Ooooh that smell, Can’t you smell that smell, Ooooh that smell, The smell of death surrounds you”. If you don’t recognize this gem little by Lynyrd Skynyrd, I won’t hold it against you. I’m sure you’re familiar with their bigger hits like, Sweet Home Alabama, Tuesday’s Gone, or the epic classic Free Bird. If you’re still drawing a blank and those legendary songs don’t ring a bell, then you’re not a true ‘Merican! The bad news is Chuck Norris just put you on his list because you’re not a true ‘Merican, the good news is you can use tonight’s DFS winnings to redeem yourself and convince him otherwise. I y’all have a short memory, but if you followed my lineup from last week you would have got paid straight cash homie! Yep, for the record I killed it last week with a total of 151.2 points, even with my featured pitcher Luis Severino scoring a paltry 2.75 points. I banked a cool $125 off a $5 entry. I’m not bragging by any means, but it just goes to show that you can take your coffee money and turn it into some walking around money. If you made it all the through my longest intro ever, then your patience is ’bout to be rewarded with tonight’s sleeper pick: Blake Snell at $15,000. Our featured boy, B’Locke Snell seems like he’s shaken off that undeniable odor of disappointment that tends to linger alongside most rookie pitchers. Over his last 5 starts he’s gone 24.2 innings giving up 8 ER, to go with 22 Ks and a 2.97 ERA. If he can get over the 5 IP hump, he could easily pick up double digit Ks vs the struggling Royals offense tonight. Snell is due to come up smelling roses tonight. Now let’s see who else is going to keep our winning streak going.
New to FantasyDraft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
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True story, I told Cougs that I had the hots for Maria Conchita Alonso, and she was like, “You know the woman who walks her Yorkie off leash in the neighborhood that Ted always tries to hump?” I answered in the affirmative. I hate people who have their dogs off leash. It’s like people who bring their dog into the supermarket. I love dogs, but I don’t need Arfer Woofruff licking my bottle of Kombucha. Any hoo! As you likely figured, the woman with her Yorkie off leash is Maria Conchita Alonso, and she’s no longer hot because she can’t follow the rules! So, guys and five girl readers, Yonder Alonso has nine homers. Quite the change from a guy who used to be Hither Alonso. Okay, Imma let Fangraphs Database finish about launch angle and exit velocity, but Yonder Alonso is the greatest 1st baseman waiver wire pick up right now. Yonder Alonso had two homers on Saturday and added his ninth on Sunday, and I’d grab him everywhere. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
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One story finally gaining a bit of traction this season is the installation of a humidor in the Diamondbacks’ home park, Chase Field.
Digging right into the meat of this point, the reason it’s even being considered is because of the relative offensive production we’ve seen in Phoenix over the first month of the season. Chase Field has actually has a higher park factor metric than the messiah itself, our DFS darling, the Parthenon of fantasy, Coors Field.
Barely edging Colorado, by fractions of a run, rumors are the Diamondbacks organization tried to implement the humidor this during Dave Stewart’s tenure, but he exclaimed, “No! Nothing logically sound can happen in Arizona until I leave!” (cannot confirm through my sources).
While some may not think it’s a big deal, the bible of the humidor’s impact can be found on The Hardball Times, and its author Alan Nathan believes the difference will be notable. Here’s his concluding paragraph from the great column he wrote…
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Urbandictionary.com says that Souzz is the verb form of Souza, which is defined as, (noun) the unannounced general feeling in the air to engage in sexual contact, usually generated upon contact, eye contact, or sight of appearance. Yup, pretty much sums up with “relationship” with Steven Souza.
I’ve been infatuated with Souza since 2014, when he hit 18 home runs, stole 26 bases, had a .350 average, and posted a 12.8% walk rate with an 18.4% strikeout rate in Triple-A. Unfortunately, that success did not translate to the major leagues and the Souza-experience was born. Would make a hell-of-a-ride at Six Flags. Now, some injuries derailed the 2015 and 2016 seasons, but the Souza was not the same. The strikeout rate was in the mid-30s, the walk rate decreased to the single-digits, and batting average plummetted. It’s called the Big Leagues for a reason. I became relegated to the fact that the Souza would not be as fulfilling as I once dreamed about…
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FantasyDraft: I’ve got a Q for you
May 7, 2017 | DFS, Fantasy Baseball DFS, FantasyDraft |by: FredWord
Ello Puppet. Boy, do we have a tough slate today. The lines in Vegas are too close on every game but one. We’ll have to be extra cautious in regards to which pitchers we target today. Roughly 3 weeks ago I was contemplating on trading for Jose Quintana ($18,900) due to his awful start to the season and figured I could buy low on him. Needless to say I got cold feet and never sent the trade through. No regrats, not even a letter. Ok, yes I regret not pushing the trade button. Quintana has looked great in his last 3 outings. Quintana had 3 quality starts in a row and 23 k’s in his last 20 innings pitched. The Orioles have been struggling at the plate recently and they’re having a tough time with LHP. They sport a 27% K rate vs. LHP which makes Quintana a great play today. As always if you have any DFS question please feel free to ask away in the comments section.
New to FantasyDraft? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, try out this 20 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your FantasyDraft whistle. It’s set to run Tuesday, May 9th @ 7:05 ET. $5 gets you in the door and the contest will run regardless of number of entrants, so make sure you hop in. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
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Minor League Update: Pick Of the Braves
May 7, 2017 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 57 Commentsby: Geoff
At the quarterly Prospector meetings many topics are broached. Favorite sweatpants style, least favorite fellow Prospector, gold tooth picks, but far and away the most popular discussion amongst my peers, “Who’s your favorite Atlanta Braves Pitching Prospect?”. If you know anything about the Braves farm system, then you know there’s so many names to choose from. Think about it, there’s Anderson, there’s Soroka, there’s Fried, and Gohara, the list goes on and on. However, I Prospect Versace, find myself enamored with the best and brightest of them all, Kolby Allard. As a 19 year old in AA he’s setting the Southern League ablaze with a 1.36 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP, and a 7.64 K/9 to a 1.91 Bb/9. The lefty was taken by the Braves 14th overall way back in the 2015 draft, and has really taken off since early injury woes. He’s made quick work of the lower levels of the minors, never sporting an ERA higher than 4 during his 90+ pro innings leading up to 2017. The stuff has never been an issue for Allard as he throws a plus fastball in the low to mid 90’s, a plus curveball (seen below), and an improving change. His control and command are advanced for a 19 year old, and with AA looking like just another notch in his belt, it wouldn’t surprise me if we see Allard in Atlanta come next year. On the most recent episode of the prospect podcast, we discuss whether or not Allard is the highest upside starter in the minors, and it’s truly possible. The only thing holding the young lefty back is a checkered injury history, with a previous back surgery. While he’s more than likely owned even in the shallowest of dynasty formats, he’s a must add on the off change he’s not. A worthy trade target for rebuilding clubs too. Here’s your minor league update for May 7th.
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Two-Start Starters, Week 6: Getcha Some-ardzija
May 6, 2017 | Two Start Fantasy Starters | 21 Commentsby: M@
A friend of mine is incredible at dynasty fantasy football. I’ve seen him steal Odell Beckham Jr. at the 10th pick in a rookie draft. He fleeced the owners of one league into acquiring 6 first round draft picks in the same year. An orphan team that finished at the bottom the two previous years finished in the money his first season after adopting it. It’s ridiculous (and frustrating owning against him). But the phrase he uses to describe how he does it is completely perfect: “You gotta be a shark.”
Coincidence I mention dynasty fantasy football? Nope! Be on the lookout for Razzball’s first venture into dynasty football in the next few days! It’s by far the better version of fantasy football, and I’ll give ya all the rankings you need.
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Frankencatcher Report: Livin’ Avila Loca
May 6, 2017 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball | 13 Commentsby: mikeMaher
The first Frankencatcher Report came at a pretty ironic time for me. Right before sitting down to work on this report, I checked my lineups and saw that Welington Castillo was placed on the disabled list with tendinitis in his shoulder. Castillo missed Monday’s game with neck spasms, and the assumption was that he would be day-to-day and likely be fine by Wednesday or Thursday, but screw me I guess. So, I had to pick up a catcher before getting started on this. I’ll go over who I picked in some detail below.
Continuing with a trend of the past few years, catcher is not exactly a prominently contributing position in fantasy baseball this season (hence the need for such a handsome Frankencatcher Report). If you don’t get lucky with one of the elite catchers, of which there are very few these days, you are likely going to have to stream the position at some point in the season.
In ESPN leagues, there are only 11 catchers with an ownership percentage of more than 70. The next highest is Russell Martin, at just over 47%. And of those 11, one of them is Gary Sanchez, who has been on the disabled list for a couple weeks and only has 20 at-bats to his name on the season. Here are those 11:
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Bellinger Rings Up Two Ding Dongs
May 6, 2017 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 62 Commentsby: Dan Pants
The fantasy gods have smiled upon Cody, my friends. Once feared that he would be sent back down with Joc Pederson’s return, Bellinger has been gifted another opportunity to prove he belongs in the MLB with Adrian Gonzalez miraculously hitting the DL (well, not so miraculous for A-Gone owners, I guess). And prove it he shall! Cody Bellinger continued to rake going 3-for-5 with two home runs (4) and 4 RBI last night. He’s hitting .400 with eight runs, four home runs, and nine RBI in the past week. Can Joc Pederson do dat? Nuh uh. Nah didn’t think so. Need more? He’s slashing .342/.390/.737 and the Dodgers are 6-2 with him in the line up. More? The Cranberries think that you have to, you have to, you have to add Bellinger. After batting .343 with five homers, 15 RBI and 7 steals in AAA this season it is clear Cody is more than ready to make some noise in the bigs. Whoa did you say seven steals! That’s right! We haven’t even seen him flash that speed yet, and when he does, fantasy glory can be ours. Grey has been telling you to BUY Bellinger for a few weeks now, and he’s still available in about 60% of ESPN leagues. He could be the Yasiel Puig-like player that’s not Yasiel Puig-like that the Dodgers and your fantasy team so desperately needs right now.
Here’s what else I saw in fantasy baseball Friday night:
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