Greetings to the end of August which is a firm reminder we’re just one month away from the fun ending. Or for some of you, the question might be…did it ever really begin? Well no worries because if that’s the case, you’re not reading. Hrm, borderline philosophical question: if you lead with making fun of people who don’t read what you have written, have you really insulted them? DEEP. Speaking of deep, here’s the dig down on those Cinci Reds. Though they haven’t been the greatest team or offense in the second half overall, they’ve really tanked in August as they hold the third worst wRC+ at 79 while maintaining a healthy 21.8% K rate. And with that, in enters Kyle Hendricks. Kyle is a bit of a home schooler as his ERA goes down a full run when in Chi-town and his K/9 jumps from 7.18 to 8.67. Given the matchup and the K potential, I’m a tad surprised to find Hendricks so reasonably priced at $6,700. I’m probably not leaning towards him in cash games but if you’re a GPP addict like myself, you know exactly what to do with this call. Snort it up your nose, of course! Oops, wrong addiction. But enough about nose candy, let’s go. Here’s my red hot takes for this Monday DK slate…
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Chris Archer, SP: $12,300 – Wait, the most expensive pitcher is the best pitcher for this slate? *Shocked emoji*. The Orioles have faded offensively in August and have kept a robust K rate while they’re at it. Unless you’re full on punting SP2 today, Archer is probably a cash only play with a game in Colorado.
Danny Salazar, SP: $10,800 – Sometimes a GPP call isn’t about paying a low price hoping for high end production. Sometimes it’s paying a high price for a pitcher in a seemingly not so perfect matchup. Salazar could get rocked as that Blue Jays offense is rolling but he also owns a 10.1 K/9 and a 12.2% swinging strike rate. Fighting your natural inclination to not play him could pay handsomely in a tourney.
John Lackey, SP: $8,900 – If Hendricks is a bit of a home schooler, The Muppet is the epitome of one as he owns a 1.92 ERA at home and a 4.12 ERA away and also sees his K rate rise from 5.83 to 7.28 when in St Louis. It would make things extremely tight, but a Lackey/Archer combo in cash makes the most sense to me today.
Colby Lewis, SP: $7,800 – I’d like him to have a lower price but the Padres for the year at home strike out 22.4% of the time and are very right-hand heavy as a batting lineup. Lewis gets chewed up by lefties on the year but has a respectable 21.3% K rate vs righties on the season. He could play out as a safe but boring SP2. Just note the upside is not there.
Felix Doubront, SP: $4,900 – A punt to end all punts, but this punt comes with some fun stats. The Angels as a team have been ice cold of late as they rank second to last in wRC+ in August at 76. What makes it even better is they have also struggled mightily against lefties all season, posting the 5th worst wRC+ against southpaws. If Doubront drops 20 today, I wouldn’t be surprised.
Josh Phegley, C: $3,100 – A lefty is on the mound and Oakland will go with their platoon partners every time. Don’t let the season long numbers fool you, Hector Santiago has reverted to form and owns a 5.23 ERA in the second half. I’d also consider Danny Valencia here for some lefty mashing fun.
Max Stassi, C: $2,500 – Yeah, we be punting. This could also go to Hank Conger here if he’s in the lineup but what I’m merely communicating here is Vidal Nuno is starting for the Mariners which means hide yo kids, hide yo wife cuz he giving it up to everybody out here. An Astros stack makes a lot of sense so consider this an ok go on Jose Altuve and Evan Gattis.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $5,300 – Have you noticed I haven’t mentioned a bat in Colorado yet? Wanna know why? Because duh. We know they’re a good play and that they’re expensive. I’m here looking for the plays that will potentially go under owned. Michael Lorenzen owns a -0.6% K%-BB% rate vs lefties and a 6.11 xFIP to go with a 1.83 HR/9. If Rizzo doesn’t dong tonight, it’ll be because he was walked every time Michael threw to him. Overall, I also like a Cubs stack today so consider Kyle Schwarber and Chris Coghlan if you want in on that sweet lefty action.
Justin Bour, 1B: $3,100 – Speaking of pitchers who can’t pitch to lefties, Mike Foltynewicz is offering up 1.98 HR/9 to them on the year and Bour could be getting his power swing back after homering on Sunday. Going full Bour makes a lot of sense today. Keeping with those lefties, consider this an eyebrow raise to Derek Dietrich as well.
Logan Forsythe, 1B/2B: $3,600 – Feels like I mention this every time I write but Forsythe owns the 5th highest ISO against lefties on the year. No, that’s not amongst 2B, that’s in the league. Meanwhile, Wei-Yin Chen gives up the 10th most HR/9 to righties at 1.61. Given the price and that not many look to Rays bats, I see no reason to not give Logan a run.
Alex Rodriguez, 3B: $4,700 – If you’re paying up, why not take the player with the 4th highest ISO against lefty pitchers, eh? A-Rod hasn’t been on of late but a date with a lefty in a park that’s kind to righties could right the ship.
Jake Lamb, 3B: $3,900 – Because Colorado. See why I don’t write much about these guys?
Marwin Gonzalez, 3B/SS: $2,700 – Short stop is a bit of a mess today so I’m punting as best as I can. The misspelled Marvin has been finding himself batting 2nd most nights and if he gets that favorable spot again tonight, I’m all about him at this price. Overall, this is a position I’ll be looking to fill when lineups come out and tell me what schmohawk to throw in based on price and lineup spot.
Franklin Gutierrez, OF: $4,100 – A big reason why I’m not huge on Dallas Keuchel tonight is the Mariners are mashing and they’re doing it against lefties as well. Big reason? FraGu has been killing lefties since his return. Wanna know how good he’s been? I’ve been streaming him like a mad man in the ‘Perts League and in the 11 games I have had him in my lineup, he’s batting .357 and has hit 7 HRs. Yup. Obviously Nelson Cruz is also in play here but so is Austin Jackson. Yes, they’d be a super under owned mini-stack today.
David Peralta, OF: $4,000 – Because Colorado…*sighs* what else am I supposed to say? This is a nice price to get in on the potential HR derby that is Coors.
Marlon Byrd, OF: $3,600 – Byrd against lefties was already money. Byrd against a lefty in a divisional rivalry game against a reeling Dodgers team…whew. I know, I know, Narrative Street and all but you explain to me how he’s left a comfy home hitting environment and has actually played better? JFOH dropping an ‘I told you so’ in 5, 4, 3, 2…
Delino DeShields, OF: $3,600 – We all know Ross walks a lot of guys and can’t keep the run game from running all over him. In steps DeShields and his high walk rate and his 22 steals in 93 games. You don’t always have to hit bombs to be da bomb in this game. If you’re looking for someone who could rack up 20 DK points without hitting the ball out of the infield, here you go.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
There’s currently no major rain threats to speak of so somebody has been doing the anti-rain dance quite well.
Doing Lines In Vegas
No surprises here as David Price and Dallas Keuchel own the heavy winning line together at -220 apiece. Meanwhile, Bartolo Colon sits with Kyle Hendricks at -200. Colon is hard to get behind…well, actually he’s not, you just don’t want to be back there but you get what I mean. It may burn me, but he’s off my radar today. In the department of O/U, another non-shocker as COLvsARI sits a top the throne at 10.5 and is trailed by a tasty situation that I didn’t really talk up. BOSvsNYY sits at 9.5 with a hot Red Sox lineup rolling in against Nova. It’s a place you can look to on both sides but tucking in affordable BoSox makes a lot of sense, especially considering the opening line was initially 9. The only other lineup movement of note is LADvsSF going up a half run to 7.5. Could mean nothing, could mean Byrd hits two out because JFOH needs to be really, really right about this. Aside from this, a word of warning to you Rockies stackers. Their numbers against lefties this year no matter where they’ve been have been bad. I didn’t suggest Robbie Ray simply because he’s not a good chance for a lot of K’s but he could go enough innings to damper the upside of those Colorado bats. I’m not fully fading them but it’s good to note they also own the worst wRC+ in the month of August. I won’t find much ownership there myself tonight.