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Son

Author: Son

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Son

One Man’s Trash: Tommy Ain’t Your Typical Boy

August 20, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 12 Comments

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I love fast cars, fast turnaround at the buffet, and fast waiting lines, so when it comes to pitchers, it only makes sense that I’ve got the need….the need for speed. Guys…or girls…..who can throw mid-90s make me hyperventilate. Even better when they are young. Now, no need to call the authorities or anything, but I’ll admit that I’m an ageist. Once a player passes the 30-year threshold, I start giving the, “I’ll call you back when I get a chance.” So, then why do I sort of, kind of like Tommy Milone, a 33-year-old pitcher who averages 86 mph on his fastball?

Milone was drafted by the Washington Nationals in the 10th round of the 2008 MLB draft. He was traded to the Oakland Athletics in 2011, where he spent two years before getting traded to the Minnesota Twins. To the New York Mets in 2017, then back to the Nationals in 2018, the Seattle Mariners in 2019, and finally ending up with the Baltimore Orioles this season.

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Son

Bear or Bull: A Time to Kill Grisham?

August 18, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 27 Comments

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Never judge a book by its cover. An age old mantra yet one that is often dismissed. There’s a reason the advertising industry is a billion dollar one, and that Karen in marketing is cashing fat checks. We judge from the cover in all facets of life. Because of that, we make irrational decisions at times. No different in fantasy baseball. We get swayed by the batting average plastered on the MY TEAM page or the constant zeroes from what you thought was your fantasy hero. Sometimes digging deeper can shed some light upon the situation. Trent Grisham of the San Diego Padres has been dropped in 13.7% of ESPN leagues over the past week. Why? Is it a time to kill Grisham or keep reading?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: Is There Moore In the Future From Dylan?

August 13, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 2 Comments

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We humans are a funny species, as emotion punks the brain much of the time. Back in the day when we roamed with clubs and were hunted by dinosaurs, emotional responses were necessary for survival. There was no time to analytically break down the size, speed, weight, etc of threat. Just run or fight. As we evolved and conquered much of the threats that nature could bestow upon us…..hears knock on the window…..Oh, it’s just Rona waving hi. Just put on your mask, don’t pay any attention, and everything will be fine. Now, there is a much-too-huge segment of the population that is still in survival mode (shameful), but many are not. As a result, you’d think that we would use our brains more, since we have more time. Unfortunately, we still let emotion run our lives. Some do it to feel alive. I get it. Others? It usually comes down to greed and fear. In fantasy baseball, we see it all the time. Owners rage dropping a pitcher after he gets slapped for 8 earned runs in 2 innings. On the flip side, there are players on heaters like Dylan Moore of the Seattle Mariners, who is the number one added player in ESPN leagues over the past week (49% owned – increase of 47.4%). Can we expect Moore from Dylan or is this the time to jump off?

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Son

Bear or Bull: Yastrzemski the Sequel

August 11, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 4 Comments

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Sequels are rarely better than the original. Caddyshack II and all the Karate Kids come to mind, but there have been many instances when the new surpassed the old. The Dark Knight, Godfather Part II, Toy Story 2, and X-Men United are but a few. The same dynamic has played out in the baseball world as well. Pudge Rodriguez was a Hall of Fame catcher. His son Dereck? Not so much. C’mon? There’s a reason it’s named the Hall of Fame. Vlad Guerrero and Craig Biggio were both Hall of Famers and have sons in the big leagues now. Cavan and Vlad Jr. have just started their baseball careers, but the probabilites are low that they surpass their father’s exploits. But, but, but….that doesn’t mean it’s impossible, as Ken Griffey Sr. was a three-time All-Star, but Griffey Jr. was elected to the Hall of Fame. So what can we make of Mike Yastrzemski‘s hot start to the Rona-infested season of 2020? Will he be but another run-of-the-mill sequel or are there signs that he’s on his way to eclipsing grandpa Carl’s 3,419 hits, 452 home runs, and Hall of Fame career?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: My Hotdog Has a First Name, It’s T-E-O-S-C-A-R

August 6, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 4 Comments

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I’m not a condiment guy. Dipping fries in ketchup is fine, but I prefer gravy or clam chowder soup. Mayonnaise? Disgusting. Mustard? Repulsive. Relish? Nauseating. So, when it comes to hotdogs, I’m an au naturel kind of guy. I know, boring to most, but whatever. I don’t live for them. As for fantasy baseball, there’s a place for the boring, dependable players, but I’m all about guys that hot dog. I want home runs, ribbies, and stolen bases. One player who’s been doing a little of everything recently has been Teoscar Hernandez of the Toronto Blue Jays. As a result, his ownership percentage has spiked 48% over the past week in ESPN leagues. Does this hot dog have staying power?

Teoscar is 27 years old, 6′ 2″, 180 pounds, and bats from the right side. He signed with the Houston Astros as an international free agent back in 2011. Over his minor league career with the Astros, Teoscar had a high of 17 home runs and 33 stolen bases in a season. The batting average fluctuated from .240 to a high of .313. The walk rate was in the 7-10% range, while the strikeout rate ranged from 16% to 36%. The ISO never dipped below .130 and got to as high as .256. The plate discipline numbers did improve as time went on, culminating in an 8.1% walk rate and 15.6% strikeout rate in 2016. As a result, he got his first call up to The Show that year and produced a .230/.304/.420 slash with 4 home runs, 9.8% walk rate, and 25% strikeout rate.

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Son

Bear or Bull: The Missing O in D_n_van S_lan_

August 4, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 9 Comments

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I was cruising down the Razzball Player Rater streets last night. Aaron Judge. I am standing. Dansby Swanson. Delicious. Trevor Story. An enjoyable read. Then my head swiveled to the tv, as Wheel of Fortune returned from commercial. D_n_van S_lan_ was the puzzle. Pat, I’d like to buy a vowel. I’d like to buy an O. Yes, Donovan Solano is the numero nueve player on the rater! .484/.500/.710 slash with a home run, 13 RBI, and .226 ISO. Where did the O come from? And can it continue?

Solano is 32 years old, 5′ 9″ 195 pounds, and bats from the right side. He signed with the St. Louis Cardinals as an international free agent back in 2005, which feels like six months ago, and spent seven years in their minor league system. He clubbed a total of 10 home runs in 2382 plate appearances. D_n_van S_lan_ indeed. He stole a few bases each season, the batting average fluctuated from .209 to a high of .317. The ISO surpassed .100 only two times. The walk rate never exceeded 8.3% while the strikeout rate was always good, routinely in the 10-15% range.

In 2012, the Marlins invited Solano to spring training as a non-roster invitee. He played 93 games for the big club that season and had a .295/.342/.375 slash with 2 home runs, 29 runs, 28 RBI, and 7 stolen bases. The walk rate was 6.6% while the strikeout rate was 18.4%. The ISO was .081, while the BABIP was .357. Hmm, not bad, but I think we are beginning to see what kind of player Solano is Mehlano.

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Son

One Man’s Trash

July 30, 2020 | One Man's Trash | 25 Comments

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When I first started writing One’s Man Trash, I would go through the most added/drop list at ESPN then highlight a bunch of players that stood out to me. As time passed and evolution did its thing, I would hone in on one player and do a deeper dive. Since it’s the beginning of the season, and the sample sizes are small, I’m going back to my roots. Enjoy.

 

David Fletcher (3B/2B/SS/OF – LAA) – 73.1% owned – increase of 38%

Fletcher lives!!! In 23 PA, he’s slashing .556/.609/.667 with 1 stolen base. The walk rate is 17.4% while the strikeout rate is a paltry 13%. The BABIP is .625! Lol. He’s obviously not going to maintain that level, but Steamer has him projected for a .283 batting average with 2 home runs, 3 stolen bases, and 24 runs. That ain’t bad for the leadoff hitter for the Angels. Fletcher led the league in swinging strike rate last season with a 3.2% number. This season, he’s at 2.3%. The contact rates are all elite. In this shortened season, Fletcher could lead the league in batting aveage and runs scored if the stars align. Finally, he’s eligible at four positions, which is huge in this Rona-infested environment. TREASURE

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Son

Bear or Bull: Kyle Lewis Sprinting Out of the Gate

July 28, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 16 Comments

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When I was a young pup, say around eight years old, my pops entered me into the Mt. SAC Relays, which was and still is to this day an annual track and field festival. I had never run before. I didn’t have cleats. I was dressed in a freaking izod polo shirt for goodness sakes. I still remember it being the red one. Later in life, I asked my pops why he did it. He answered, “I wanted to see how fast you could run.” LOL. For full disclosure, my pops was not a degenerate gambler. Anyways, it was actually a cool experience running in a stadium with people for the first time. And I held my own, which meant not coming in last place. My most distinct memory of that race, though, was a fellow who jetted from the starting line and galloped his way around the track. We ran the 800m race, which is two laps around the track. And said fellow almost lapped us. I’ve never been in awe of someone running before. Which brings me to this fantasy baseball season. It’s not the marathon we are accustomed to, but it’s not a 100m dash either. It’s going to consist of a few laps around the track. Normally, I would eschew hot starts because of the length of a normal season and the fact that the rest of the league would have time to figure out and humble hot player, but these are not normal times. 60 games. That’s it. A player could get hot and remain hot for the entire season! One player who’s sprinting out of the gate is Kyle Lewis of the Seattle Mariners. In 13 plate appearances, Lewis has clubbed two homers with a slash of .364/.462/.909. The sample size is obviously small, but I’ll dig into the data and try to find nuggets that will show whether or not the hot streak is sustainable.

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Son

One Man’s Trash: Choo Still Chugging Along

July 23, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 4 Comments

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I still can’t believe it took us so long to figure out The Seoul Train nickname for Shin Soo Choo. No wonder we don’t get paid the big bucks. I think it was Rudy who finally figured it out. So freaking good. Anyways, that’s another reason why you should subscribe to the award-winning (courtesy of The Son Awards) tools and projections. Best in the biz. Back to…..aaah Choo. Gesundheit. Jay “Who Is Never” Wrong wrote up a good piece on Choo back in March, which you can find HERE. Read it. Since I wrote up Shogo Akiyama earlier this week, I wanted to keep the asian flavor going, so let’s get the spiciness flowing.

Over the past three years, Choo has been a model of consistency. He’s played around 150 games each season, accrued around 650 plate appearances, clubbed 20 home runs, scored 90-ish runs, driven in 60 RBI, and stolen around 10 bases each season (only 6 in 2018). The walk rate has been around 12%, strikeout rate in the low-20% range, with a slash of .260/.370/.440. Interestingly, the SLG has increased in each of the past three seasons. All that at the ripe ages of 36, 37, and 38 years old. Chugga chugga Choo Choooooooo!!!!

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Son

Bear or Bull: Fo Shogo

July 21, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 20 Comments

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I usually have FOMO when it pertains to Japanese imports: cars, video games, sushi, anime, toilets, and baseball pitchers. I just learned that there’s a concept called JOMO, which is the joy of missing out. L. O. L. Well, I get JOMO when it comes to Godzilla, radioactive fish, and baseball hitters from Japan. But, but, but….there are always exceptions to the rule. Hideki Matsui, coincidentally nicknamed Godzilla, was amazing and so was Ichiro, but the rest of the list is the aftermath of eating that five-eyed fish. So, where will new import, Shogo Akiyama, fit into the spectrum?

Akiyama is 31 years old, 6′ 0″, 190 pounds, and bats from the left side. He played nine years in the JPPL and put up some impressive numbers. In 2015, he had 216 hits in 143 games and, over the past five years, has always produced over 170 hits per season. Over the last three seasons, he’s clubbed over 20 homers, stolen at least 10 bases, had a batting average over .300, and OBP hovering close to .400. He has five-category skills, but it’s the JPPL, so that sort of production is unrealistic to expect his first season in MLB. So what can we expect?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: C Dick Swing

July 16, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 4 Comments

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“You miss every shot you don’t take.” Some attribute the quote to Wayne Gretzky while others believe Michael Jordan said it. It doesn’t matter who it’s attributed to. What matters is that the expression permeates all aspects of our life. If you don’t ask that girl out, there’s no chance for first, second, third, or home base. If you don’t request a pay raise, your time of making it rain at the club will be difficult to increase. For fantasy baseball, if a player doesn’t swing the bat, home runs are impossible to hit. If no home runs are hit, then the chicks that dig the long ball will move onto someone else. So, it makes sense that C Dick (Corey Dickerson) has no problems shooting his shot, as he’s often among the league leaders in swing percentage. At pick 296 in NFBC drafts from 6/1 to 7/12, is he a bargain?

Dickerson is 31 years old, 6′ 1″, 210 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was drafted by the Colorado Rockies back in 2010. He exhibited tremendous power with a little bit of speed and a healthy batting average. In 2014, he played 131 games for the Rockies and clubbed 24 homers, 74 runs, 76 RBI, and stole eight bases with a 7.7% walk rate, 21.1% strikeout rate, and .312/.364/.565 slash. Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves the next superstar in baseball.

Unfortunately, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in 2016 and the Mile High viagra wore off for C Dick. The batting average plummeted to .245, but he still was able to mash 24 homers. He was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018 where he went 13/8 with a 15% strikeout rate and .300 average in 533 plate appearances. The first 34 games of the 2019 season, C Dick went 4/1 in 44 games with a 16.2 strikeout rate and .315 batting average before being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, where he hit 8 homers in 137 plate appearances with a 24.1% strikeout rate and .291 batting average before being shut down for the season due to foot injury.

This past offseason, the Miami Marlins signed him to a two-year deal.

C Dick has performed everywhere he’s been. No need for the blue pill. Or maybe he was taking it. Regardless, the production has been there. He hits to all fields and holds his own against lefties, although his numbers against righties are significantly better. The contact rates are above average, but the swinging strike rate is elevated and the massive swing percentage are the negatives. Here are his swing and chase percentages over the years with ranks:

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Son

Bear of Bull: No Longer in Awe of Clayton Kershaw

July 14, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 8 Comments

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I was born and raised in Los Angeles, so the Doyers, not the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, are my team. My first memories were of Fernandomania. What a glorious time it was. Ever since then, it’s been the pitchers that have captivated my attention. From Orel Hershiser to a young Pedro Martinez. NOOOOOOOOOOOO! For Delino DeShields! I digress. The Hideo Nomo no-no in Coors. Eric Gagne and his roids running out from the bullpen to “Welcome to the Jungle.” Man, we would all get so freaking amped. For much of my adult life, though, it’s been about Clayton Kershaw. From 2009 to 2017, Kershaw had one of the most dominant stretches ever for a starting pitcher. In 1827.1 innings, Kershaw struck out 2020 batters. In the history of the game, only Chris Sale’s 2007 strikeouts in 1629.2 innings is better. Coincidentally, we are mired in a most unforgettable year of 2020. Is it time to move on from Kershaw for fantasy? Especially since he’s being drafted as the 10th pitcher off the board and 37.53 overall player in NFBC drafts from 6/1 to 7/12?

We’ve known the fastball velocity has been declining for years now, but man….90.5 mph last season isn’t good. Yet, the brilliance that is Kershaw still managed a 9.54 K/9, 2.07 BB/9 and 3.5 xFIP. Amazing. Most impressive was the 12.9% swinging strike rate.

How’d he do it?

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