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Son

Author: Son

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Son

Bear or Bull: Kyle Lewis Sprinting Out of the Gate

July 28, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 16 Comments

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When I was a young pup, say around eight years old, my pops entered me into the Mt. SAC Relays, which was and still is to this day an annual track and field festival. I had never run before. I didn’t have cleats. I was dressed in a freaking izod polo shirt for goodness sakes. I still remember it being the red one. Later in life, I asked my pops why he did it. He answered, “I wanted to see how fast you could run.” LOL. For full disclosure, my pops was not a degenerate gambler. Anyways, it was actually a cool experience running in a stadium with people for the first time. And I held my own, which meant not coming in last place. My most distinct memory of that race, though, was a fellow who jetted from the starting line and galloped his way around the track. We ran the 800m race, which is two laps around the track. And said fellow almost lapped us. I’ve never been in awe of someone running before. Which brings me to this fantasy baseball season. It’s not the marathon we are accustomed to, but it’s not a 100m dash either. It’s going to consist of a few laps around the track. Normally, I would eschew hot starts because of the length of a normal season and the fact that the rest of the league would have time to figure out and humble hot player, but these are not normal times. 60 games. That’s it. A player could get hot and remain hot for the entire season! One player who’s sprinting out of the gate is Kyle Lewis of the Seattle Mariners. In 13 plate appearances, Lewis has clubbed two homers with a slash of .364/.462/.909. The sample size is obviously small, but I’ll dig into the data and try to find nuggets that will show whether or not the hot streak is sustainable.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

One Man’s Trash: Choo Still Chugging Along

July 23, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 4 Comments

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I still can’t believe it took us so long to figure out The Seoul Train nickname for Shin Soo Choo. No wonder we don’t get paid the big bucks. I think it was Rudy who finally figured it out. So freaking good. Anyways, that’s another reason why you should subscribe to the award-winning (courtesy of The Son Awards) tools and projections. Best in the biz. Back to…..aaah Choo. Gesundheit. Jay “Who Is Never” Wrong wrote up a good piece on Choo back in March, which you can find HERE. Read it. Since I wrote up Shogo Akiyama earlier this week, I wanted to keep the asian flavor going, so let’s get the spiciness flowing.

Over the past three years, Choo has been a model of consistency. He’s played around 150 games each season, accrued around 650 plate appearances, clubbed 20 home runs, scored 90-ish runs, driven in 60 RBI, and stolen around 10 bases each season (only 6 in 2018). The walk rate has been around 12%, strikeout rate in the low-20% range, with a slash of .260/.370/.440. Interestingly, the SLG has increased in each of the past three seasons. All that at the ripe ages of 36, 37, and 38 years old. Chugga chugga Choo Choooooooo!!!!

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Son

Bear or Bull: Fo Shogo

July 21, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 20 Comments

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I usually have FOMO when it pertains to Japanese imports: cars, video games, sushi, anime, toilets, and baseball pitchers. I just learned that there’s a concept called JOMO, which is the joy of missing out. L. O. L. Well, I get JOMO when it comes to Godzilla, radioactive fish, and baseball hitters from Japan. But, but, but….there are always exceptions to the rule. Hideki Matsui, coincidentally nicknamed Godzilla, was amazing and so was Ichiro, but the rest of the list is the aftermath of eating that five-eyed fish. So, where will new import, Shogo Akiyama, fit into the spectrum?

Akiyama is 31 years old, 6′ 0″, 190 pounds, and bats from the left side. He played nine years in the JPPL and put up some impressive numbers. In 2015, he had 216 hits in 143 games and, over the past five years, has always produced over 170 hits per season. Over the last three seasons, he’s clubbed over 20 homers, stolen at least 10 bases, had a batting average over .300, and OBP hovering close to .400. He has five-category skills, but it’s the JPPL, so that sort of production is unrealistic to expect his first season in MLB. So what can we expect?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: C Dick Swing

July 16, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 4 Comments

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“You miss every shot you don’t take.” Some attribute the quote to Wayne Gretzky while others believe Michael Jordan said it. It doesn’t matter who it’s attributed to. What matters is that the expression permeates all aspects of our life. If you don’t ask that girl out, there’s no chance for first, second, third, or home base. If you don’t request a pay raise, your time of making it rain at the club will be difficult to increase. For fantasy baseball, if a player doesn’t swing the bat, home runs are impossible to hit. If no home runs are hit, then the chicks that dig the long ball will move onto someone else. So, it makes sense that C Dick (Corey Dickerson) has no problems shooting his shot, as he’s often among the league leaders in swing percentage. At pick 296 in NFBC drafts from 6/1 to 7/12, is he a bargain?

Dickerson is 31 years old, 6′ 1″, 210 pounds, and bats from the left side. He was drafted by the Colorado Rockies back in 2010. He exhibited tremendous power with a little bit of speed and a healthy batting average. In 2014, he played 131 games for the Rockies and clubbed 24 homers, 74 runs, 76 RBI, and stole eight bases with a 7.7% walk rate, 21.1% strikeout rate, and .312/.364/.565 slash. Ladies and gentlemen, we have ourselves the next superstar in baseball.

Unfortunately, he was traded to the Tampa Bay Rays in 2016 and the Mile High viagra wore off for C Dick. The batting average plummeted to .245, but he still was able to mash 24 homers. He was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2018 where he went 13/8 with a 15% strikeout rate and .300 average in 533 plate appearances. The first 34 games of the 2019 season, C Dick went 4/1 in 44 games with a 16.2 strikeout rate and .315 batting average before being traded to the Philadelphia Phillies, where he hit 8 homers in 137 plate appearances with a 24.1% strikeout rate and .291 batting average before being shut down for the season due to foot injury.

This past offseason, the Miami Marlins signed him to a two-year deal.

C Dick has performed everywhere he’s been. No need for the blue pill. Or maybe he was taking it. Regardless, the production has been there. He hits to all fields and holds his own against lefties, although his numbers against righties are significantly better. The contact rates are above average, but the swinging strike rate is elevated and the massive swing percentage are the negatives. Here are his swing and chase percentages over the years with ranks:

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Son

Bear of Bull: No Longer in Awe of Clayton Kershaw

July 14, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 8 Comments

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I was born and raised in Los Angeles, so the Doyers, not the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, are my team. My first memories were of Fernandomania. What a glorious time it was. Ever since then, it’s been the pitchers that have captivated my attention. From Orel Hershiser to a young Pedro Martinez. NOOOOOOOOOOOO! For Delino DeShields! I digress. The Hideo Nomo no-no in Coors. Eric Gagne and his roids running out from the bullpen to “Welcome to the Jungle.” Man, we would all get so freaking amped. For much of my adult life, though, it’s been about Clayton Kershaw. From 2009 to 2017, Kershaw had one of the most dominant stretches ever for a starting pitcher. In 1827.1 innings, Kershaw struck out 2020 batters. In the history of the game, only Chris Sale’s 2007 strikeouts in 1629.2 innings is better. Coincidentally, we are mired in a most unforgettable year of 2020. Is it time to move on from Kershaw for fantasy? Especially since he’s being drafted as the 10th pitcher off the board and 37.53 overall player in NFBC drafts from 6/1 to 7/12?

We’ve known the fastball velocity has been declining for years now, but man….90.5 mph last season isn’t good. Yet, the brilliance that is Kershaw still managed a 9.54 K/9, 2.07 BB/9 and 3.5 xFIP. Amazing. Most impressive was the 12.9% swinging strike rate.

How’d he do it?

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Son

One Man’s Trash: Appraise and be Amazed by Austin Hays

July 9, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 22 Comments

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Dumpster diving is a thankless job. One often comes out empty-handed with all of the prior weeks culinary leftovers slathered about. Grey! I need a raise!! But, but, but….every once in a while a potential treasure is unearthed. Granted, potential don’t mean shit but, when you’re dumpster diving, potential is everything. As I was frolicking in the NFBC dumpsters this week, a player who could be leading off and possesses power and speed caught my eye. And he’s being drafted, on average, with the 261st overall pick in NFBC drafts from 5/1 to 7/6!!! Madness! His name? Austin Hays. Let’s dig in.

Hays is 25 years old, 6′ 1″, 195 pounds, and bats from the right side. The Orioles selected him in the third round of the 2016 MLB draft. In 2017, he tore up Single-A and Double-A to the tune of 32 combined home runs with a batting average over .300 and a strikeout rate under 16%. Woo hoo! As a result, he received 20 games worth of big league experience. As expected, he struggled, but he was young. No biggie. 2018 was marred by injury and underwhelming performance, but things picked up last season. He began in Single-A, quickly advanced through Double-A and Triple-A, then finally made The Show for another 21 game stint. This time, however, things were much different, as he clubbed 4 home runs, stole 2 bases, hit .309, and had a 9.3% walk rate with a 17.3% strikeout rate. Oh yeah!

Now, entering the 2020 season, RosterResource has Hays slotted to bat leadoff. You’ve been reading all of Grey’s 60-game season primers, so you know that batting at the top of the order is going to be huge this season. But that’s not all. Hays has speed, as in 85th percentile sprint speed, so stolen bases are in the offering. And that power. Oh, baby. That power. Fangraphs has Hays rated with a 60/60 for raw power and a 45/50 for game power.

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Son

Bear or Bull: Get Comfy For Dylan Bundy?

July 7, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 2 Comments

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There was a period of time in my life when I was a brand name snob. It was not a time I am proud of, but it happened. Fortunately, it didn’t last long, as I became woke. Why am I spending more money on something that is essentially for others? F that! I ain’t spending $10 on a Hanes white t-shirt when I can stroll on down to the swap meet and get 5 for $10. My life became more about comfort and utility, which suited me much more. The same concept applies for fantasy baseball. Sometimes, you pay for the name brand and you receive the luxurious benefits. There are times, though, when a swap meet special emerges that performs similarly to a more well-known name. Dylan Bundy is being drafted as the 84th pitcher and 217th overall player in NFBC drafts from 5/1 to 7/5. Steamer has his projections similar to a pitcher that is being selected 50 slots higher and 100 spots in the overall rankings. Let’s dig in.

Bundy is a 27-year-old, 6′ 1″, and 200 pound right-handed pitcher. He was selected by the Baltimore Orioles with the fourth overall pick back in 2011. He dominated Single-A and even made a MLB appearance his rookie season. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2013 then missed time in 2015 due to a shoulder injury. It wasn’t until 2017 that Bundy pitched over 150 innings in a season. Over the last three seasons, the numbers have been meh: 4.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 1.7 HR/9. The walk and strikeout rates have been decent, though at 2.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9.

So, why Bundy?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Succumb to Beat of the Drum For Niko Goodrum

June 30, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 2 Comments

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I tried to open my eyes, but the sun was beaming death rays directly into my pupils. It was hot and sticky, like September in NYC hot and sticky. Yuck. My head was groggy and my body was aching. With my eyes no longer melting, I was able to survey the land. Trees. Lots of trees. Mud, bushes. What the hell had happened to me? Just as the synapses in my brain were starting to fire, I began to hear something in the distance. Boom da da. Boom da da. Boom da da. I reluctantly rose from the ashes and set forth towards the drum beat. I was thirsty as hell. Hopefully, there was water. Lots of water there, as nothing would be more satisfying and refreshing. After trekking for what seemed like days, which was in actuality more like 10 minutes, the Boom da da, Boom da da, Boom da da turned into BOOM DA DA, BOOM DA DA, BOOM DA DA. I had arrived. My thoughts of water all but dissipated, as the discovery of Niko Goodrum, a 15/15 player during a normal season at pick 239 in NFBC drafts, quenched the thirst for all facets of my life.

Goodrum is 28 years old, 6′ 3″, 218 pounds, and bats from both sides of the plate. He was selected by the Minnesota Twins back in 2010 with the 71st overall pick. In eight minor league seasons in the Twins organization, Goodrum produced a .250/.333/.379 slash with 42 homers and 122 stolen bases in 2796 plate appearances. The walk rate was routinely above 10% while the strikeout rate was in a palatable range of 25%.

In 2017, Goodrum elected free agency and signed a minor league contract with the Detroit Tigers. He made the opening day roster and became the super-utility player for the major league club, playing all four infield positions along with the corner outfiield spots. His two seasons with the Tigers had been remarkably consistent.

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Son

12-Team Roto Mock Draft with Scott White and Crew

June 27, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 6 Comments

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Visualize a game of Pong on the original Atari. For you millenials, here you go. Now imagine that your head is the ball. Pong. Ouch! Pong. Ouch! Thanks MLB and the MLBPA, because that’s how it has felt following the negotiations to start the season. But, but, but….Can I get an amen? Amen! Thanks to the old lady in the back. Baseball is back! At least on paper. Hopefully the Rona and his/her compatriots let us measly humans have some homeruns and strikeouts back into our lives. With that said, when Scott White at CBS Fantasy sent out the bat signal for a 12-team mock draft, I equipped my scouts with enough provisions so that they may get a detailed lay of the landscape. Before I unveil the map, I want to thank Scott for allowing me to participate. Now, for your viewing pleasure…

Here’s a LINK for the roster grid.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Bear or Bull: Don’t Be a Chicken, Buy Dansby Swanson

June 22, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 8 Comments

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Canned foods are good to have…..in the event of a nuclear holocuast, zombie apocalypse, and/or global pandemic. Usually I would not include the “and” in the above sentence, but we live in strange times that not including it would classify this piece as fiction. Anyways, back to canned foods. You buy lots of them, stack them on the shelves, then pray that you never have to open them. I get their utility. What I don’t get, though, are the canned foods that have NO PRESERVATIVES written on the label. How? One of life’s great mysteries. Another enigma I stumbled upon the other day was that Dansby Swanson was being drafted as the 224th player in NFBC drafts from 5/1/2020 to 6/20/2020. <insert Nancy Kerrigan sobbing why?>

Last November, Grey wrote a sleeper article on Swanson. That Grey guy is a wise, young, fella. To show that I don’t just parrot Grey and ride his coattails….Who am I kidding? Have you ever ridden coattails? It’s a glorious experience, especially when you can grab Grey’s mustache and use them as handlebars. I digress. I wrote a Bear or Bull article on Swanson back in June of last year, so I’ve been bullish on his prospects for a while now.

So, why is his ADP so low?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Bear or Bull: He May Not Be the Sharpest Tool in the Shed but…..

May 26, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 13 Comments

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….I sort of Long for him. How this website remains free is beyond me. Anyways, here’s a thought experiment for you. Say you were out shopping for shoes and you see a pair of Nikes for $150, while the Mikes are right next for $15. Which do you buy? Even if the quality of the two products are similar? For those who buy shoes for the status symbol, then the Nikes are the obvious choice, but for the practicality-inclined, the Mikes are the no-brainer. For fantasy baseball, there are some who draft players on name value, which is fine, but sometimes the name becomes a blinder which prohibits the eyes from identifying similar, yet cheaper players. Shed Long of the Seattle Mariners may be just that player, as he is being selected as the 418th overall player in NFBC drafts from 3/1/2020 to 5/24/2020. You won’t believe who the Nikes to Long’s Mikes is.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Bear or Bull: Can Archer Find the Bullseye Again?

April 28, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 17 Comments

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From 2015 to 2017, Chris Archer threw over 200 innings in each season and racked up 252, 233, and 249 strikeouts respectively. Then, he was traded to the Pittsburgh Pirates after the All-Star break in 2018, and was wheeled down into the basement lab of Ray Searage. When he resurfaced, Archer produced the highest xFIP, homerun rate, and walk rate of his career. Hip hip hooray for Ray Searage! Entering the Rona TBD season of 2020, Searage is out and Oscar Marin is in as pitching coach. Is there value with Archer, as he is the 67th starting pitcher and 244th overall player being drafted in NFBC drafts from 3/1/2020 to 4/26/2020?

During the three-year span when Archer was slicing and dicing American League East batters, he was primarily a fastball, slider, and changeup pitcher. So, of course, when Searage got a hand on him in 2018, he broke what was successful and incorporated the sinker/two-seamer into his arsenal. After not throwing the pitch for three years, Archer started throwing it over 10% of the time. Why do you ask? Well, throwing low in the zone and pitching to contact was an organizational philosophy, which neutered both Tyler Glasnow and  Gerrit Cole in the past. Good times.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
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