After going over keeper relievers, keeper starters and keeper catchers the past month, it is time to turn our attention to the top infield keepers. The trip around the infield will start with the first basemen.
I really thought it was going to be easy to find 30 first basemen and another 10 who can play the position well. But what I thought and what I learned were two different things.
The top half of this group solid, especially the top 10 players with the next 10 being very safe keepers. If you have anyone in Tier 3 or better, be happy. But the bottom tier players are just that – bottom tier players. Some may surprise and have a good season in 2024, but others will likely do exactly what you and I expect from them.
With that said, it’s on to the 2024 Top Keepers – First Basemen
TIER 5
*Age is as of April 1, 2024
RANK | PLAYER | 2023 TEAM | AGE |
---|---|---|---|
40 | Anthony Rizzo | NYY | 34 |
39 | Brandon Belt | Tor | 35 |
38 | Ryan Noda | Oak | 28 |
37 | Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | 26 |
36 | Patrick Wisdom | ChC | 32 |
35 | Mark Vientos | NYM | 24 |
34 | Gabriel Arias | Cle | 24 |
33 | Elehuris Montero | Col | 25 |
32 | Brandon Drury | LAA | 31 |
31 | Luke Raley | TB | 29 |
Vinnie Pasquantino may be ranked too low here, or it may be just right – I really have no idea what to do with him. I was bullish on Pasquantino after the 2022 season after he slashed .295/.383/.450 with 10 homers in 72 games. But 2023 was not kind to the Royals first baseman. Through his first 61 games he was slashing .247/.324/.437 – a big drop from 2022. But he did have nine homers, matching his pace from the previous season before landing on the 60-day IL and missing the rest of the season.
He is probably a 20 to 25 homer player. However, is he a .300 hitter or a .250 hitter? That is the difference between being ranked in this tier or Tier 4 or moving up to Tier 3.
Swiss Army Knife
The real value when it comes to Gabriel Arias is the fact he can play all over the place. He started 11 or more games at third base, first base, shortstop and right field. He has decent power but is going to likely drag down your slash line. But in really deep leagues where positional versatility is a huge plus, then Arias is a player to look at as a possible keeper.
There for the Taking
No player has exactly nailed down the first base job for the Colorado Rockies, which is why Elehuris Montero is a player who can shoot up these rankings. In 85 games he hit 11 homers while driving in 39 runs. His 162-game average is 20 homers and 69 RBI. However, his slash line is .239/.283/.428, he does not walk (23 walks in 492 career plate appearances), and he strikes out too much (201 career Ks). But the power potential is there, thus so is his keeper potential.
TIER 4
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | AGE |
---|---|---|---|
30 | LaMonte Wade Jr. | SF | 30 |
29 | José Abreu | Hou | 37 |
28 | Ty France | Sea | 29 |
27 | Joey Meneses | Was | 31 |
26 | Justin Turner | Bos | 39 |
25 | Alex Kirilloff | Min | 26 |
24 | Ryan O’Hearn | Bal | 30 |
23 | Jeimer Candelario | ChC | 30 |
22 | Wilmer Flores | SF | 32 |
21 | Ryan Mountcastle | Bal | 27 |
This tier is full of question marks. Those who answer them correctly next season will be under ranked. Those who don’t should then be Tier 5 players are completely off the board.
What to do with Abreu, France, Meneses and Turner?
Which Jose Abreu are we going to get in 2024? The one who slashed .234/.291/.343 with 10 homers and 56 RBI through his first 110 games? Or do we get the Abreu who slashed .248/.315/.530 with eight homers and 34 RBI over his final 31 games after being on the IL with back issues. That is a 162-game pace of 42 homers and 177 RBI.
He’s not going to have that kind of season next year, but I think the back issues severely affected his output the first 110 games of this season. I think he is good for 25 homers and 90 RBI. He is a keeper, but how good of one is the mystery.
As Ty France has moved into the prime of his career, his numbers have decreased. In 2021 he slashed .291/.368/.445. Those numbers fell to .274/.338/.436 in 2022 and then .250/.337/.366 this past season. That is not a good sign. Neither were the 12 homers and 58 RBI. If there is good news, he did lead the league with 34 HBP!
Joey Meneses in 2022 – .324/.367/.563 with 13 homers and 34 RBI in 56 games. Meneses in 2023 – .275/.321/.401 with 13 dingers and 89 RBI. I think the 2023 version is who Meneses is, especially enter his age 32 season.
Meanwhile, Justin Turner had a solid season with 23 homers and 96 RBI while slashing .276/.345/.455. But he will be 39 next year. The cliff is coming, I’m just not sure when it will arrive.
The Most Upside
The player I like the most in this tier is Ryan Mountcastle. The Oriole was limited to 115 games this year, depressing his power numbers to 18 homers and 68 RBI. The deep left field dimensions at Camden Yards will likely prevent Mountcastle from reaching the 33 dingers he hit in 2021, but he’s a solid 25-85 hitter who is entering the prime of his career.
TIER 3
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | AGE |
---|---|---|---|
20 | Josh Bell | Mia | 32 |
19 | Yandy Diaz | TB | 32 |
18 | Christian Walker | Ari | 33 |
17 | Luis Arraez | Mia | 26 |
16 | Alec Bohm/Rhys Hoskins | Phi | 27/31 |
15 | Triston Casas | Bos | 24 |
14 | Nathaniel Lowe | Tex | 28 |
13 | Isaac Paredes | TB | 25 |
12 | Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Cin | 24 |
11 | Andrew Vaughn | CWS | 25 |
The Three Wise Men
If this tier were being graded for dynasty leagues, Josh Bell, Yandy Diaz and Christian Walker would likely be downgraded to Tier 4 due to their age. But in a straight keeper league in which you are probably only concerned about next year, the trio all land in this tier
Bell has always seemed to run hot and cold. He was having a great season with Washington in 2021 until he got traded to San Diego and fell off the face of the Earth. This past season he was treading water in Cleveland (.233/.318/.383 with 11 homers and 48 RBI in 97 games) until he was traded to Miami. In 53 games with the Marlins, he hit 11 homers and drove in 26 while slashing .270/.338/.480. He isn’t spectacular, but he somehow seems to produce decent numbers by the end of a season.
Diaz was outstanding this season, slashing .330/.410/.522 with 22 homers and 78 RBI for the Rays. The power numbers were career highs and I’m not counting on him to duplicate those next year. But Diaz will still produce a decent number of homers and he has always been solid in the slash categories.
After producing 36 homers and 94 RBI in 2022, Walker came through with 33 dingers and 103 RBI this past season, proving 2022 wasn’t a career year. But at 33 on Opening Day next year, he is leaving his prime years behind.
Two Part-Timers and a Real First Baseman
Luis Arraez is really not a first baseman as he started only 11 games there this year. But in some leagues that is enough to maintain eligibility, so here he is. No, he is not going to deliver a lot of home runs and RBI as a fulltime first baseman on your team. But what he will do is greatly help your batting average and OBP. This past year he hit .354 to lead the league while posting a .393 OBP. For his career he is a .326 hitter with a .806 OPS.
Like Arraez, Alec Bohm is not a fulltime first baseman. With Rhys Hoskins missing all of this past season, Bohm filled in at first until Bryce Harper took over at the position when he could finally take the field. So I cheated here and put them Bohm and Hoskins together.
Bohm hit 20 homers and drove in 97 runs while slashing .274/.327/.437 – very solid numbers for a player who is just now entering his prime. But Hoskins is set to return next season and will easily match and more than likely exceed what Bohm did at first base. His career 162-game average is 36 homers and 98 RBI. And in the four seasons in which he has had 389 at-bats or more, he has yet to hit fewer than 27 homers.
Knocking on the Door
It is only a matter of time before Christian Encarnacion-Strand (ECS) and Andrew Vaughn are regular Top 10 first basemen. ECS played in only 63 games for the Reds but managed to hit 13 homers and drive in 37 runs. That is a 33-95 162-game pace. He also slashed .270/.328/.477, proving he is more than just a power hitter.
Meanwhile, I expected Vaughn to have a good season for the White Sox and he came through with 21 homers and 80 RBI. For me, that is not even his floor going forward as I expect the power numbers to only get better.
TIER 2
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | AGE |
---|---|---|---|
10 | Paul Goldschmidt | Stl | 36 |
9 | Spencer Torkelson | Det | 24 |
8 | Josh Naylor | Cle | 26 |
7 | Spencer Steer | Cin | 26 |
6 | Nolan Jones | Col | 25 |
This tier is almost more about the players’ long-term dynasty potential as much as straight keeper value.
Paul Goldschmidt is listed here based strictly on his keeper value for next year and perhaps 2025. He had a decent season with the Cardinals, but he is no longer the threat he used to be. But I don’t think he falls below what he did this past year, so he is very safe keeper.
The Future Tier 1 Players
The other four players in this tier are dudes I love for next year and the next five-plus years.
Spencer Torkelson has had a tough time living up to the hype that has surrounded him. But this past season he finally showed why he had that hype as he slugged 31 homers and drove in 94 runs in a park that is not easy to hit homers in and in a lineup that is not conducive to high RBI totals. His slash line wasn’t great, but I think it will get better.
Josh Naylor had a great season but hardly anyone knows he did. He slashed .308/.354/.489 leading to an .842 OPS (10th among first basemen) and an OPS+ of 133, which was ninth among his position peers.
But Are They First Basemen?
All Spencer Steer did this year was slash .271/.356/.464 with 23 homers, 86 RBI and 15 steals. Playing in a hitter’s park, those power numbers are likely to only increase. The only reason Steer may not be a future Tier 1 first baseman is because he may not be eligible to play there.
Is he a first baseman (53 games started), second baseman (13 games started), third baseman (42 games started) or left fielder (36 games started)? As long as he gets enough starts at first to be eligible there, who cares? And then there is Nolan Jones, who is a stretch to include in the first base rankings as he appeared in 10 games at first base out of the 106 he appeared in.
But the Rockies are not set at first base, and if Montero can’t hold down the fort there, then Jones will likely get enough playing time at the spot to maintain eligibility at first base. If he does, that is great news for fantasy players as he has power (20 homers in 367 ABs), speed (20 steals) and can hit (.297/.389/.542). His xwOBA, xSLG, Barrell% and BB% were at 84% or higher this year.
TIER 1
RANK | PLAYER | TEAM | AGE |
---|---|---|---|
5 | Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | Tor | 25 |
4 | Pete Alonso | NYM | 29 |
3 | Bryce Harper | Phi | 31 |
2 | Matt Olson | ATL | 30 |
1 | Freddie Freeman | LAD | 34 |
The players in this tier are the players that no matter what type of league you are in – re-draft, keeper, dynasty – you want on your team. It doesn’t matter what their age is, you know they are going to produce and will do so for the next four to five years – even Freddie Freeman.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. just completed his fifth season in the majors – and he will only be 25 on Opening Day next season. That is mind boggling. His 2021 season in which he hit 48 homers, drove in 111 runs and slashed .311/.401/.601 may be a bar that he never reaches again. Few players will have that kind of season. But he still hit 26 homers and drove in 94 this season. And again, he is only entering his age 25 season. There is still a lot of great years ahead for Guerrero.
Power Bat
Pete Alonso does one thing very, very well: he hits lots of home runs. He hit 53 his rookie season in 2019, then 37 in 2021, 40 in 2022 and 46 this past year. His RBI totals (excluding 2020) have been 120, 94, 131 and 118. Who wouldn’t want those numbers on their team. The only knock is a slash line of .217/.318/.504 this past season. A minor ding against an otherwise great producer at the plate.
The Interloper
Is Bryce Harper a real first baseman? No. He’s a right fielder who played at first in order to help his team. Will he remain at first base next year? No. Not with Hoskins coming back. But Harper played enough games at first to be one on your team next year, and because of that, here he is at No. 3.
I will admit, I have a man-crush on Harper. I’m not a Phillies fan, but I love to watch Harper play baseball. And he plays the game as well as anyone. He can basically do it all. His career 162-game average is 33 homers, 96 RBI and 14 steals with a .281/.391/.521 slash line. I will take that production every day of the week.
The Final Two
Freddie Freeman is simply a professional hitter. He hits for average, smashes homers, drives in runs and steals bases. Matt Olson is a slugger who may or may not help you in the batting average and OBP department.
Someone had to be ranked No. 1 and the other No. 2, so Olson comes in second in this race. I love his power. Since 2018 (and excluding 2020) he has hit 29, 36, 39, 34, and 54 homers. He has driven in 84, 91, 111, 103 and 139 runs. When it comes to production, he has done an amazing job of replacing Freeman in Atlanta.
However, where he falls short is his batting average and OBP. Twice he has hit below .250 since 2018 (and .195 in 2020, which I’m not counting) and only once has he hit above .280, and that was this season with a .283 average. Meanwhile, his career OBP is .351 with this season’s .389 coming out of nowhere.
Meanwhile, Freeman just keeps producing. His homers since 2018 are 23, 38, 31, 21, 29 and his RBI totals have been 98, 121, 83, 100, and 102 (2020 not included). Over the last two years he has stolen 13 and 23 bases.
But what pulls him away from Olson is the fact Freeman is also going to help your slash line. For his career, it is .310/.388/.514. Olson’s is .256/.351/.522. Freeman’s worst batting average since 2016 is a .295 mark in 2019. I’m a fan of Olson, but the steady production Freeman provides puts him at No. 1.
Come Back Next Week
Thanks for reading this week and come back next week when the 2024 Top Keepers will move to second base.
How about Kyle Manzardo?
Rowdy Tellez would be cheap in a NL only league. Would he be worthless?
Worthless, no. But very replaceable and others are just as good as him if not better. About the only thing Tellez is good at is hitting homers. But I wouldn’t want a player on my team with a slash line of .215/.291/.376 or an OPS+ of 82.
Even in NL only leagues, I think you can do better than Tellez.
And Carlos Santana in a NL only league?
OK, in an NL only league, you can do worse than Santana – like having Tellez. The biggest knock against Santana is the fact he will be 38 most of next season. The 23 homers he hit are the most since he hit 34 in 2019. Otherwise he was an average player. If you think he can match the 23 homers, then he is a keeper. Otherwise, I’m letting him ride off into free agency and get a younger bat with more future upside.
Why was Rowdy Tellez’s year so baddd!!
In a NL only league where he could be picked up cheap, is he worthless ?
In a 12 team keep 10 forever with no contracts, you preferable choice between Naylor, who helped me win a championship, so yes I noticed and ECS [sic] CES. CES hits in a burgeoning Reds lineup with arguably the best hitting environment GAB in all MLB?
Naylor had the better season (because he was up all season, thus more RBI and a few more HR plus great slash line) and produced last year as well, thus why as a straight keeper I have him ranked higher than CES. But in a forever league, give me CES. Love the lineup around him and love the ballpark he hits in. He will rack up the HRs and RBI and I think will at least match the slash line this year, so he won’t hurt you there.
I guess you didn’t watch MLB Network last night? Harper moving to 1B full-time this year. I sure wish I had him!!!
I responded to that news below. The deadline to get this in was before the news broke, sadly. But as stated below, it really doesn’t change my keeper rankings. But having Harper at first for the next several years just added a great bat to the position long-term.
Where would you rank Casas in a dynasty format? I traded Alonso for Casas and CES…13 team dynasty…
Knocking on the door of the Top 10. Goldschmidt certainly falls out. But those who are already in Tiers 2 and 1 would remain – just in some different order (Freeman likely falls to around third or fourth with Vlad likely to jump to No. 1 (I’m still playing with my dynasty rankings).
I like Casas and his upside, but I like CES more, so he would battle Vaughn for 10th with Casas then at 11 or 12. If you are looking three to five years down the road, Goldschmidt, Freeman, Olson and Harper are all likely out of the top 10, allowing Casas to easily slide into the top 10 should he continue to progress.
That is a bold trade you made due to Alonso’s “name value.” But to get two outstanding keepers in CES and Casas – I like that.
Thanks for reading and for the question. Obviously you like Casas, so what is your overall view on him? I’ve seen him play some, but not a lot. Do you think I am underestimating him or pretty much on target with him right now?
You may be underestimating him a little bit, I feel like he ends up a top 5 guy on a couple years. Part of the fun of fantasy baseball is making those bold moves…when the other owner made that offer I couldn’t refuse! I really enjoy you the content you provide, keep it coming! Have a great day!
You, too, and thanks. We will see about Casas!
Keep it rolling, Jakkers. Loving this series you’re doing.
As a side question, in case you feel like answering: is there any one you feel is in a better position than all other first basemen for a break-out season next year?
Thanks Jakkers!
Jolt
I think Steer and Encarnacion-Strand have a lot more in them. Steer may not remain at first, but that is a bridge to cross later. Playing in a hitter’s park in a lineup full of young players who will get better, the numbers for these two players can be outstanding for years to come.
Jones will likely not stick at first, but like Steer, that may be an issue to really worry about later if you become first-base deficient. Otherwise he is one I expect to really break out. Love his power/speed, especially in Colorado.
Glad you are enjoying the series.
Where would Bellinger rank? He definitely qualifies at first.
Yep, I completely typed right over Bellinger and thus left him of the list. My mistake.
I have him in Tier 3. Overall, he has had two outstanding seasons – his MVP year in 2019 and this past year. Then he has had two solid seaons and then three ugly seasons. Which Bellinger are we going to get next year and the years after. The 2019 and 2023 version? Or the 2021 and 2022 version or somewhere in between.
When he right at the plate, he is a top 10 first baseman. But when he gets into his head, he is a bench warmer. So I’m playing it safe and putting him in Tier 3 at No. 13-15.
Thanks for catching the oversight.
I hope the general drafting community (or at least the guys in my league) have the same opinion/ranking of Vinnie P. as you. If I can get him in the 150 range, that will be a steal!
I might have missed this, but will Bellinger lose First Base eligibility in 2024? I played him at the CF spot most of the time anyway, but was curious.
Thank you for all you do here!
You didn’t miss Bellinger – I simply left him off my list but have a breakdown above of what I think of him. As for Vinnie P., maybe I am missing the boat, but when it comes to straight keepers, a lot of people will look at what the player did THIS year and use that recency bias when deciding to keep him or not.
I’ve explained why I am not sold on him, but in a dynasty league, where recency bias shouldn’t be a big factor, he would be higher in these rankings – between 21-24 as I’m still working on my overall dynasty rankings.
Thanks for reading.
Vinnie P below OHearn? Wisdom? G.Arias? 2 of those 3 may not get everyday at bats. Arias can’t hit and doesn’t walk.
I get Vinnie P is coming off an injury, but do we really believe his playing time is in jeopardy? If you want to place him outside the top 20…sure. Top 25…ok I suppose. Outside the top 35…really?
I am not a fan of Wisdom. He’s a one-trick pony, really, and at 32-year-old, he isn’t suddenly going to learn to hit for average. As for Vinnie, I explained why I have him ranked where I do. He has two years of history – one good and one not so good. He is going to hit for power, and if that is all you care about, then move him up. But I’m not sold on him.
I explained Arias’ value – as more of a utility player than just a first baseman. I still think he has potential and at 34th, he is taken only in really deep leagues.
Thanks for the reading the discussion. That’s the beauty of rankings – no one is going to agree 100% but they serve as a starting point for you and the other readers.
I believe Hoskins is a free agent, and Dombrowski said that Harper will stay at 1B.
yup – Harper is arguably interchangeable with 1 or 2 now
Yes. Due to deadlines, etc., this article was submitted before the news about Harper staying at first base came out Wednesday. But it really doesn’t change my rankings. Harper, we know, will remain at first and so where he is ranked won’t change.
Bohm will be a full-time third baseman next year, but he will still be eligible at first base, so I like where I have him slotted. Hoskins won’t be in Philly, but he will be somewhere and he will hit = he always has. So just slot him in right ahead or behind Bohm.