What if I told you there was a pitcher on the Indians with a sub-3.00 ERA with a swinging strike rate above 12%. This mystery man has been a cog in the gears of Francona's first-place ballclub after some wondered whether their devastating loss in game seven of the World Series could be overcome simply by adding Edwin Encarnacion. What if I told you I'm not talking about Corey Kluber?
Monthly Archives: July 2017
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*Plays triangle* come and get it, boys, it's time for a Hodgepadre treat! In San Francisco! Which kinda makes it a San Francisco Treat! I'm sorry for shouting, I've had too much coffee! *Takes some purple drank and Xanax*...ah, much better. Now where was I? Oh yeah, Dinelson Lamet. Don't let the 6.40 ERA fool you, Dinelson has some more intriguing stats you'll want to get to know. Namely, a 12.40 K rate to go with a 3.80 BB rate as well as a 13.3% swinging strike rate. He's been very unlucky with his strand rate (52.6% LOB) and because he's a flyball pitcher, he does tend to give up some long balls with a 19.3% HR/FB rate. The great thing about that last stat, though? He's at AT&T Park, one of the hardest parks to hit one out in right next to Petco. Throw in how the Giants offense is straight awful this year, Dinelson should eat and so should you. So lets feast on some other picks. Here's my Chinese taekout taeks for this Sunday brunch slate...
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Minor League Update: The King In The Gateway?
July 23, 2017 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 79 Commentsby: Geoff
It's been well documented, my love for Tyler O'Neill, the muscle bound Hercules I dubbed the King In The North. So while it came as a shock that the Mariners would move such an erupting talent, it really didn't because, Dipoto. After praising his recent drafting, the Segura-Haniger deal, and the organizational shift toward plate approach development he repays me with this? He goes ahead and trades a talent Taylor-made for the modern game. A workaholic, on base machine, with 70 grade power. It's easy to get lost in O'Neill's batting average, and strikeouts rates without exploring deeper. I don't blame fans that haven't taken the time to isolate his production since late May to the present. I say this because O'Neill is on an absolute tear. Since May 20th O'Neill has slashed .275/.362/.569 with 16 homers and 5 steals. I understand the value of a controllable starter, I'm just not completely on the level with why this starter was the target. Marco Gonzales had some prospect status a few years back, but he's dealt with multiple injuries and a history of bouts with command. I'm just a lowly prospect writer so my opinion doesn't matter, but I'm clueless as to what Dipoto is thinking here.
The highest rated two-start starter on the Streamonator who is owned in less than 70% of RCLs is, gulp, John Lackey. The ‘nator likes him at a $13.90 value for his starts against the Chicago White Sox at home and the Milwaukee Brewers on the road (does anyone one else close one eye and grimace every time they write Milwaukee and wait to see if spell check flags it or not?). Here is the full list of players Streamonator gave a positive value who are owned in less than 70% of RCLs:
In his first game since being called up on Tuesday, Astros rookie Colin Moran had himself a 2017 debut going 2-for-4 with a triple and a home run and driving in two runs Friday night versus the Orioles. You can see how upset his teammates were with his performance here. If there's one thing we can all agree on, it's that the Astros desperately need another young, extremely talented infielder, and Colin Moran could be that missing piece. Called up to to play while Carlos Correa misses the next month and a half with an injured thumb, Collin could see time at 3rd base, especially if he keeps having games like this one. Did you miss out on the Astros sweepstakes this year? Did you ignore the prophetic Sports Illustrated article that all but guaranteed a World Series victory for the Houston Astros in the year 2017? Are even the Yulieski Guerriel's and Marwin Gonzalez's owned already? Well my over-the-internet friends, this could be your last chance to get in on this action and add Moran. In 79 games (338 ABs) at AAA Fresno this season, Moran slashed .308/.373/.543 with 18 dingers and 63 RBI. With 18 homers and 15 doubles, he was having his best offensive season to date. Although part of that could be the hitter friendly PCL as the 55/31 K/BB rate isn't really impressing. Still, the 24 year old left-handed rookie could see some serious playing time if he starts hot, and in a stacked line up like the Houston's a player like Moran can really make some noise. He also has a really cool red beard. If you you missed out on Yoan Moncada and want a rookie with upside it'd be moronic not to take a chance and add Colin Moran in deeper mixed and AL-Only leagues. In shallower league its best to see how his playing time will shake out, but I'll be watching him closer than the Game of Thrones premiere. Which judging by the ratings, you all watched. (Arya is BAE). So check out Moran, he's Colin to you!
Don’t ask me how I stumbled across this (*cough* Wikipedia *cough*), but today I learned that a “toxophilite” is a “lover or devotee of archery; an archer.” And that’s me and Stream-o-Nator both today: lovers of Chris Archer versus the Rangers. Archers and Rangers! I feel like I’m assembling a party for Dungeons & Dragons rather than a lineup for FanDuel. Or maybe I’m just reading too much fantasy right now (Lev Grossman and The Magicians series! Spoiler: it’s awesome! It’s the Narnia books crossed with Catcher in the Rye!) and jonesing for a quest of some sort. Anyway, as usual, I’ll throw out some ideas for how your ragtag squad of adventurers might come together — more details below, but in summary it’s a good day for cheap-ish pitching and good stacking. Let’s restring our bows, fill our quivers, and practice sliding our swords in and out of our scabbards so we don’t look like dummies, and get to it.
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Prospect Podcast: Trades, Call-ups, and Low Minors Update
July 22, 2017 | Prospect Podcast, Razzball Podcast | 24 Commentsby: Halp
We recorded the podcast too early to discuss the Tyler O’Neill for Marco Gonzales trade, but maybe that was for the best because Ralph Lifshitz and I were liable to wax poetic about "The King of the North” for the entire hour. Long story short, it really doesn’t change either of their fantasy values all that much other than the obligatory NL to AL drop for Gonzales. We did record the podcast right on time to get into the Blake Rutherford and JD Martinez trades, though, along with Yoan Moncada’s long awaited MLB debut. We talked Rafael Devers and Derek Fisher knocking on the door of the majors, and then dove deep into lower minor breakouts, including Michel Baez, Starling Heredia, Jahmai Jones, Royce Lewis, Heliot Ramos, and many more. Finally, we hammer home the insanely high quality of RotoWear.com's t-shirts, and implore you to head over there and enter promo code “SAGNOF” for 15% off. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Prospect Podcast:
Harold and Kumar Go To Buy Castellanos
July 21, 2017 | Fantasy Baseball Buy/Sell | 346 Commentsby: Grey
Like a kindergartner who just discovered boogers, I was digging into exit velocity and launch angle, because, ya know, these are important things now. Is it me or does it feel like sabermetricians think they've reinvented the wheel every six months only to abandon all the new stuff in six months for something else? "This is Marvin! Marvin Berry, your cousin! Yo, put down your ERA+ and VORP, I need you to hear about exit velocity!" So, Nick Castellanos is regularly talked about when exit velocity and launch angles are brought up. His average exit velocity is 90 MPH. The top is Aaron Judge at 95 MPH, and Castellanos looks to be about 40th on the list (it wasn't numbered, and I'm too lazy to count). The top 40 is filled with hitters who are excelling at ghosting faster than others, but is also littered with disappointing names: Machado, Gallo, Sandoval and Miggy, to name a few, and there is at least half you don't want. I could make a case that Adam Lind is as enticing as Castellanos using just exit velocity, which I guess is my point. It's a fun new metric (not that new, not that fun), but, in my estimation, it's like a piece of evidence found at a crime. It's got the victim and suspect's DNA on it, but if it doesn't fit you can choose to ignore it. Granted, that doesn't rhyme quite as well. Castellanos is 2nd in the majors for Hard Contact%. Right in front of Miggy. Again, you can read into that anything you want. I still believe the Castellanos breakout is coming one of these years (he's still only 25), but if you watch him hit, he has a line drive stroke, not a home run one. The launch angle data is even less compelling for Castellanos because he drives balls the opposite way. You can mollywhop, but if you're going the other way, it's not going to do as much damage unless you are Giancarlo or Judge, i.e, a giant living amongst Lilliputians. The Greek God of Exit Velocity pulls line drives and hits fly balls the other way. It might be the leg kick, it might be his natural swing tendencies, but it's obvious if you look at his spray charts. With all that said (here's where Grey throws everything out), there's no one hotter right now and it's silly he's only owned in 40% of leagues. Okay, enough of Grey's impersonation of Fangraphs... Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
This is the best time of the year, next to when Shark Week is on TV. All the movement in real baseball sends a ripple throughout the fantasy universe and in most position player cases, the player is owned to the moon or already a contributor. Not so much in the realm of baseball's forgotten warriors: the setup men. As teams scramble for bullpen help, it creates an everlasting (not really forever) waterfall effect that resonates to the new and old team. Take for example the Yankees/White Sox trade it has created job questions for five separate relievers: Betances, Robertson, Kahnle, Clippard and Swarzak. Now with all the hype surrounding trade rumors, it is best to identify the team who gets the bullpen help first, than the trading team second. Because the trading team usually is where the goodies are at. Anthony Swarzak looks to be the biggest beneficiary in the setup options, and yes, Clippard will be closing, but Swarzak will be there when Clippard gets dealt again whether it's before or after the non-waiver trade deadline. So to summarize here, be speculative but not crazy. Pay attention to the reliever deals in place and realize that some pitchers get moved down a few pegs, but on the reflexive, some move up. Have at some juicy reliever tidbits, Cheers!.
Fredo, you're my older brother and I love you, but don't ever pick up [player]Cameron Maybin[/player] again over [player]Tommy Pham[/player]. If you do, Maybin will find himself on the disabled list and you'll take a one way row boat ride out on the lake. If you think I'm kidding watch the movie. Tommy is the future of this phamily. In the past thirty days he has been a top ten batter in points leagues, scoring 96 points. Here are the seven hitters that are ahead of him. [player]Jose Ramirez[/player] (98), [player]Carlos Correa[/player] (98), [player]Mookie Betts[/player] (102), [player]Jose Altuve[/player] (102), [player]Anthony Rendon[/player] (102), [player]Bryce Harper[/player] (105) and [player]George Springer[/player] (113). That's quite the company he's keeping. Looks like the heads of the five families and two of their captains if you ask me. Pham has score more points than every other hitter not mentioned in that sentence. That includes [player]Joey Votto[/player] (93).
Chris Sale, P: $11,800 & Max Scherzer, P: $11,600 - I’m not going to even waste your time telling you how good they are. Play them.
Wait a second...I’m sure all you faithful readers out there are saying “But this is a FanDuel article, we only get one pitcher!”. You’re right. So, Sale or Scherzer? This comes down to matchups and ballparks. Scherzer is facing a very good Arizona lineup, in Arizona - and unless it’s confirmed that the humidor has begun being used, Chase Field is a top-3 non-Coors offensive ballpark. On the other hand, Chris Sale is facing the pathetic Angels offense, which is approaching 2007 Cleveland Cavaliers territory for lopsidedness. For those who don’t remember, that’s the Cavs team that made the finals with Larry Hughes, Drew Gooden, Sasha Pavlovic, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and a small forward that remains comically underappreciated and underrated throughout his entire career. The problem is, baseball isn’t basketball. One amazing hitter can’t carry an otherwise inept lineup. The 2002 San Francisco Giants demonstrated that absurdly lopsided offenses only work if you have the single greatest offensive player of all time and a second elite-level hitter (and have at least one or two other guys that aren’t complete embarrassments - that year it was Benito Santiago and David Bell). Trout’s trying his best to be Barry Bonds, and Andrelton Simmons, shockingly, isn’t a complete embarrassment, and neither is Luis Valbuena. But the lack of Jeff Kent means this offense isn’t going to give anyone trouble. Additionally, Angel Stadium is an offense-killer, although it does get credit for not selling its naming rights (although the Cubs played in Cubs Park, but then changed the name for the 1927 season to a gum company, which is now considered a non corporate name, so the lesson is, just last a long time). So while I couldn’t fault anyone for deciding that Scherzer’s their guy tonight, when you consider that Sale is facing a vastly inferior lineup and pitching in a far more pitcher-friendly ballpark, the choice (for cash) seems fairly straightforward. And yes, astute readers of mine should note that Scherzer’s GPP-value is through the roof as my hunch is that Sale’s ownership is far higher, and it’s entirely possible Scherzer outscores Sale as both are quite dominant and it may just come down to who gets 11 strikeouts as opposed to 8.
On to the picks as soon as Guaranteed Rate Field becomes a fun, cozy name...
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Jake Delivers Homer-Pleasing Duo Of Lamb Chops
July 21, 2017 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 204 Commentsby: Grey
Since I haven't touted my wares in a minute, I wrote a Jake Lamb sleeper post last December. Going back to read that now, and, I don't often laugh at my own stuff, but the opening paragraph is funny. Not unintentionally either, like I called Aaron Judge a preseason bust (I actually liked Judge a lot in the preseason, and own him; something I also don't tout often -- the hype's strong enough, isn't it?). Then, into the 2nd paragraph, I drop more gems, but they're useful vs. haha. One gem that particularly stands out to me as I reread it, Jake Lamb hates the summer. He might also dislike girls that wear Abercrombie & Fitch. Before yesterday's 2-for-5, 6 RBIs, two-homer game, Lamb had a .150 average in July with no homers. Last year, as I point out in that post, he was just as bad -- 9 HRs, .197 in the 2nd half. Last year, there was a wrist problem -- That's what she said! What? -- so maybe his splits aren't as obvious as a banana gymnast. Here's hoping he makes last year an outlier and not the beginning of male pattern badness. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
