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It was a year to remember for the Amazins in 2015. Jacob deGrom, Matt Harvey, and Noah Syndergaard fronted the best starting rotation in MLB. Yoenis Cespedes had a 2nd half for the ages after being acquired at the trade deadline. Curtis Granderson put his forgettable 2014 season behind him and played at an all-star level. Michael Conforto made quite an impact as a rookie following his July call-up. Jeurys Familia was one of the best closers in all of baseball. Daniel Murphy got white hot in October and helped propel his team to the World Series. Who am I forgetting? Oh yeah, there’s that Lucas Duda character. Does he even play there anymore?

Duda is kind of like the Rodney Dangerfield of the Mets these days – he just don’t get no respect. The inimitable Grey Albright just ranked him 21st among first basemen. His current NFBC average draft position is 149 overall, behind SAGNOFers Elvis Andrus and DJ LeMahieu. This guy must be a real ham-and-egger with a valuation like that. Or is he?

Among first basemen over the past two seasons, Duda hit more home runs (57) than Adrian Gonzalez (55), Paul Goldschmidt (52), and Miguel Cabrera (43). He had a higher BB% (11.7%) than Anthony Rizzo (11.5%) and Cabrera (11.5%). He had more RBIs (165) than Eric Hosmer (151) and Freddie Freeman (144). He had a higher OPS (.834) than Chris Davis (.827), A-Gon (.824), Albert Pujols (.789), and Hosmer (.774). Duda, where’s the love?

A concern that some might have about Duda is his lack of production during the middle part of last season. From the beginning of June until the All Star break, here’s what he produced:

36 G, 151 PA, 11 R, 3 HR, 13 RBI, 0 SB, 17 BB, 45 K, .163 BA, .278 OBP, .279 SLG

That’s a 14 homer, 203 strikeout full season pace. Yikes. Not a good stretch by any means. What people might not remember is that this rough stretch occurred immediately after getting plunked on the knee by a David Phelps pitch.

Here were Duda’s stats prior to getting hit by that pitch:

50 G, 208 PA, 31 R, 9 HR, 25 RBI, 0 SB, 22 BB, 46 K, .298 BA, .394 OBP, .539 SLG

And here were his 2nd half stats after getting an opportunity to rest his knee over the All Star break:

49 G, 195 PA, 25 R, 15 HR, 35 RBI, 0 SB, 22 BB, 47 K, .250 BA, .364 OBP, .591 SLG

Across a full season, Duda’s 2nd half numbers would’ve put him on a 50 HR pace. His .341 2nd half ISO was the  6th highest in MLB, and was a higher ISO than those produced by Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Cespedes, Nelson Cruz, Mike Trout, and Bryce Harper over that time period.

Duda’s 60.2% FB% led MLB in the 2nd half, and his 9.3% soft hit percentage (6th lowest among 340 qualifiers with 100 PA) and 41.5% hard hit percentage (14th highest out of 340) were among the best in baseball. These numbers aren’t a small sample size fluke either. Over the last two seasons, Duda had the 2nd highest FB% (49.7%) in MLB (min 500 PA) as well as the 7th highest Hard% (40.2%). Having the 20th highest ISO (.235) isn’t too shabby either.

Ultimately, hitting the ball hard and in the air are positive traits for a premier power hitter, and Duda does those things almost as well as anybody. His above average walk rate ensures that he’s likely to get on base and maintain a respectable run total for a slugger as well. Did I mention that Citi Field had the 5th highest park index in MLB (and 3rd highest in the NL) for home runs for left-handed hitters over the last three seasons? Moving that right-center field fence in seems to have made an impact. With good health, expect a .250 batting average with 30+ home runs and 90 RBIs from Duda in 2016. Think of him as Miguel Sano with less upside available 90 picks later. Target him in the 11th round of 12 team standard mixed league drafts and in the 9th round of 15 team drafts. You’ll be glad you did.