Top 100 Starting Pitchers for 2022: Week 4

May 2, 2022 | Top 100 Starting Pitchers | 37 Comments

Welcome to week 4 — the week where all the data finally makes sense and the futures of every player become written in stone! Not really — that’s kind of the wonky thing about baseball — it might take years to make effective predictions about player performance (see Greinke comma Zack). For me, May is where I start to vaguely pay attention to baseball again because the stats are meaningful again. DFS becomes a bit more predictable, and the rest of us fantasy ballers (Grey’s mom’s word) are ready to spew out meaningful and actionable takes. Like, “Sit that clown Lucas Giolito! I kid, I would never bad-mouth a White Sox player [stares at Dylan Cease].

Let’s learn about some interesting players!

News and Notes

Mike Clevinger: After returning from Thomas John surgery, Sir Michael Clevinger — the gunslinger for the Christian Fathers — will be making his vengeful return against his former nation on Tuesday. Cleveland, beware. Fantasy managers: You do you. He’ll probably get 3IP, maybe 5 if he’s really efficient, but generally speaking, pitchers coming back from Tommy John surgery have a slow ramp-up to their pitching duties. That ramp up? Not great for most fantasy formats. So, make it your own call and see what happens.

Carlos Rodon: I’m not saying “I told ya so” because Rodon only had a solid 15ish outings in his arm last year, but for 2022, Rodon is slicing through batters and looking like the beast his therapist told him he is. Hopefully, that therapist isn’t one of those primal scream practitioners.

Jesus Luzardo: We’d love to say that he’s risen again — I mean, it is Easter season — but Luzardo is leading the Confidence leaderboard in the “true skills look awesome but baseball card stats look crap” metric. Luzardo’s K/9 is right there with Rodon (and that’s also one of the tops in the league so far) and Luzardo has a 1.32 FIP to a 3.77 ERA. So, grab your followers and get walking through the desert and pick up Luzardo if he’s available, or maybe trade while his value is “low” with that 3.77 ERA.

Clayton Kershaw: All over the news as the Dodgers’ all-time strikeout leader, surpassing [checks notes} Fernando Valenzuela + Hideo Nomo + Kenley Jansen + Rich Hill. Whateva. You cool cats and kittens knew that I was way higher on Kershaw in the pre-season than every other ranker. Something, something, forearm tightness. Oh wait, let’s see how this goes. For the meantime, enjoy the ride and hope that the LA Baseball Team knows how to do workload management, just like another LA team: Mickey and Minnie Mouse.

Trevor Bauer: Gonezo. Told ya.

Eric Lauer: Back into small sample-size territory! Lauer was pretty meh last year, but this year he’s lights out. My system loves him because he’s racking up innings and his FIP is, quite literally, sitting at my cutline threshold. Ya see, early in the season, there are a ton of outlier numbers, like all these negative value FIP numbers. The pitcher is somehow gaining runs for their offense! What a game! All of those numbers are going to inflate over time; no pitcher will finish the year with a -0.93 FIP. Ain’t happening. Don’t screenshot this and tag me in #badtakesexposed. I’ll get to those later. Lauer’s FIP is happy at 2.50, which is my somewhat arbitrary early-season cutline, thus he’s jumped into the first tier of pitchers. If his FIP was, say, 2.51 — like, he hit a batter or pitched one out less — he’d be in tier 2. Whatever. Buy Laurer. B’Laurer. Sounds like a character in my upcoming Klingon sci-fi saga.

Casey Mize: Ligament sprain. You know what a sprain is, right? [10 minutes of audience silence] Let me quote the Mayo Clinic: “A sprain is the stretching or tearing of ligaments” [throws up]. Yeesh, fantasy baseball is super gross. So, you know what happened with Dinelson Lamet? Remember him? No? OK. He was a top ten pitcher in 2020 before he got the sprained elbow all the kids are talking about. Remember Zac Gallen? No? He was [checks notes] a pitcher before he also got the sprained elbone. Casey Mize: a pitcher you’ll be remembering in 2023 because the sprained elbow ligament usually winds up in either A) middle reliever mode, or B) Tommy John. We wish you the best Mr. Mize, but fantasy managers can easily move onwards (just, not like the Pixar film with the semi-decapitated dad. Yeesh).

Hyun-Jin Ryu: Yikes. He should be returning vaguely soon, but I wouldn’t toss him in the starting lineup when he does. Forearm inflammation is typically bad news (don’t read my Kershaw blurb above), so I’m fine dropping Ryu or letting him lament on the bench while he heals.

Julio Urias: His FIP is nearly double his ERA, his BABIP is .170, and he’s walking 4 batters per nine. This is Jack’s complete lack of surprise. Sorry, my name’s EE-Double-ya-bee. I’m not saying “sell high,” but I am saying, “Don’t be surprised if the next couple outings look like Dippin Dots — expensive and ugly.”

German Marquez: Guy whose fantasy value is tied to Ks ain’t striking anybody out. Drop and move on; come back later if he figures it out.

Robbie Ray: The namesake of this article had a tough start to the year but bounced back with a 2 start week, tossing 11IP with 13K, 5BB, and a 2.03 FIP (which was way better than his 4+ ERA). The K/9 is back above 10 and now we just gotta move those BB/9 down and we’re good to go. Hold the line.

Josh Fleming: Well, this is a weird one. 2IP, 7 runs allowed…but NONE of them earned. I mean, what are we supposed to do about that? And the guy finishes with a 9 K/9 in that weird sample size. Again, I’m not here to ballyhoo the Roleless Rob, but there’s your Josh Fleming hype follow-up.

MacKenzie Gore: Was so bad last year that the Dads refused to call him up, but in 2022, one of baseball’s top prospects has already broken into my top tier. Hey NSA! Stop Googling “broken in”. Or maybe we need that government web traffic. ENYWHEY. Gore K’d 10 in 5 IP this last start and has 20K in 15IP on the year. Seems like his 2021 case of the yips/injury is gone (Gore’d? hmm) and we’re getting pure prospect freshness on the mound. Let him start from here on out. Speaking of wonky stats, Gore’s 2.51 FIP puts him that .01 points above my cutline, so if he had a 2.49 FIP, for example, he’d be up by Dylan Cease and Corbin Burnes.

Lucas Giolito: So why is Giolito in Tier 3? Beats me, let’s find out. In short, my system is concerned about the quality of hits against him (again, small sample size). So far, Giolito’s allowed a 13% barrel rate, which is about TWICE his career norm. Most notably, his “medium hard” [hehe] hit rate has taken a 10% jump, and only 10% of balls are considered weakly hit. This has produced a .357 BABIP, most of which isn’t luck-driven. Since the StatCast era emerged, us “baseball analysts” came to realize that BABIP is not a catch-all for pitcher luck; in fact, it’s heavily influenced by medium and hard-hit balls. If you smash a ball in play, it’s hard to catch it, right? Thus, the high batting average. This is combined with Giolito’s “lucky” 92% left-on-base percentage, which indicates we’ve got some regression coming, and that’s why my system is concerned. On the whole, Giolito’s K-rate is insane and his CSW% is above 35%, which bodes well. If he can limit the hard contact, I envision him jumping ranks very quickly.

Add These Guys: My system is telling me the following guys are under-rostered: Keegan Thompson, Jalen Beeks, Jakob Junis, and Blake Treinen.

The Ranks

Always do a sanity check. I’m providing free data that quite literally has a better or higher correlation to fantasy efficacy than many sites that charge an arm and a leg and don’t answer your questions. That said, I’m human and make mistakes; I also submit the article on Sunday so there’s a bit of lag. The source of this data is none other than Razzball itself. So, if you are winning money or having a great time reading the articles, please consider a subscription to the site or drop me a line in the comments and let me know I’m not wasting my life away for naught.

Here’s how to use the list:

Tier: 1=best, 2=everybody else for 12 team consideration, 3=deep league/dynasty/best ball/tournaments/DFS, 4= you do you.
Name: Player name
Confidence: The overall score my system outputs. The higher the score, the more confident I am in using the player. As always, we’re in small sample size territory, so this ranking will get better as the season goes on.
Own%: This is the rostership % of the player in Razzball Commenter Leagues, run on Fantrax. This may vary depending on site and format for readers.
L30$/G: This is how valuable the player has been over the past month. Players with high confidence who have low or negative $/G are “buy low” candidates. Shohei Ohtani has been blistering with his true skill stats, but his roto stats (like a 4.40 ERA) aren’t valuable. This indicates we should expect Ohtani to be much more valuable soon. Spot starters/Roleless Robs will have a lower $/G because they play in more games. Michael King, for example, has pitched in twice as many games as the other top P.

Tier	Name	Confidence	Own%	L30$/G
1	Carlos Rodon	3.895	100	53.2
1	Kyle Wright	3.734	100	50.5
1	Nestor Cortes	3.681	100	24.3
1	Clayton Kershaw	3.674	100	53.1
1	Max Scherzer	3.650	100	47.1
1	Shane McClanahan	3.469	100	4.9
1	Jesus Luzardo	3.454	100	6.7
1	Eric Lauer	3.431	100	25.7
1	Shohei Ohtani	3.373	100	0
1	Corbin Burnes	3.355	100	30.9
1	Dylan Cease	3.300	100	1.2
1	Patrick Sandoval	3.182	100	28.7
1	Kevin Gausman	3.125	100	11.9
1	Steven Matz	3.076	59	-38.1
1	MacKenzie Gore	3.035	100	18.9
1	Freddy Peralta	3.007	100	-36
2	Tarik Skubal	2.725	100	-12.5
2	Pablo Lopez	2.718	100	51.1
2	Josiah Gray	2.700	82	-14.2
2	Paul Blackburn	2.696	89	33.6
2	Max Fried	2.693	100	8.5
2	Joe Musgrove	2.684	100	31
2	Carlos Carrasco	2.647	100	-13.6
2	Tyler Mahle	2.629	100	-45.7
2	Merrill Kelly	2.571	91	14.9
2	Chris Paddack	2.568	7	-26.3
2	Justin Verlander	2.562	100	37.8
2	Tylor Megill	2.558	100	32.5
2	Garrett Whitlock	2.557	100	6.8
2	Frankie Montas	2.552	100	-5.6
2	Brandon Woodruff	2.551	100	-24.7
2	Aaron Nola	2.543	100	-5.4
2	Wil Crowe	2.539	48	3
2	Joe Ryan	2.491	100	47.6
2	Chris Bassitt	2.476	100	29.2
2	Keegan Thompson	2.470	20	16.1
2	Chasen Shreve	2.465		0.3
2	A.J. Minter	2.465		-4.7
2	Logan Gilbert	2.463	100	43.9
2	Kenley Jansen	2.445	100	2.1
2	Shane Bieber	2.441	100	-1
2	Dylan Bundy	2.440	70	15
2	Sean Manaea	2.425	100	-5.1
2	Martin Perez	2.420		-17.7
2	Nick Lodolo	2.407	55	-37
2	Zac Gallen	2.400	100	17.3
2	Yu Darvish	2.394	100	-19.4
2	Ross Stripling	2.390		-27.3
2	Ryan Helsley	2.389	20	2
2	Miles Mikolas	2.372	100	14.1
2	Sam Hentges	2.372		-2
2	Alek Manoah	2.339	100	47.4
2	Justin Wilson	2.336		-4.4
2	Scott Effross	2.329		-4.4
2	Bruce Zimmermann	2.326		4.7
2	Alex Cobb	2.316	100	-14.4
2	Michael King	2.312		11.2
2	Dane Dunning	2.305	2	-23.5
2	Michael Kopech	2.302	100	-1.2
2	Drew Rasmussen	2.301	89	-9.5
2	Victor Arano	2.291	2	-4.6
2	Logan Webb	2.289	100	-12.2
2	Austin Gomber	2.282	2	-21.7
2	Patrick Corbin	2.282	11	-85.5
2	Triston McKenzie	2.280	100	-24.7
2	Andrew Heaney	2.270	91	51.3
2	Enyel De Los Santos	2.254		-6.2
2	Zack Wheeler	2.249	100	-40.7
2	Erik Swanson	2.243		-1.2
2	Gerrit Cole	2.241	100	-3.6
2	Adam Wainwright	2.235	100	-30.2
2	Jhoan Duran	2.235	59	-3.7
2	Josh Hader	2.234	100	7.6
2	Zach Eflin	2.231	20	-23.3
2	Walker Buehler	2.227	100	7.3
2	Trevor Rogers	2.193	100	-37.9
2	Brad Keller	2.186	27	1.5
2	Nathan Eovaldi	2.174	100	5.4
2	Tyler Anderson	2.172	32	6.7
2	Luis Severino	2.172	100	-6
2	Adrian Houser	2.168	11	-3
2	Tanner Houck	2.165	100	-5.6
2	Brooks Raley	2.164	7	-4.9
2	Kyle Gibson	2.151	86	-0.9
2	Corey Kluber	2.146	64	-12.3
2	Noah Syndergaard	2.144	100	21.3
2	Jalen Beeks	2.142	7	7.5
2	Jeffrey Springs	2.137	2	0.5
2	Jordan Montgomery	2.135	100	-13.9
2	J.P. Feyereisen	2.129	2	4.3
2	Jose Alvarado	2.129		-7.6
2	Jimmy Herget	2.123		-11.2
2	Julian Merryweather	2.122		-9.1
2	Corbin Martin	2.113		-12.1
2	Daniel Bard	2.112	100	4.6
2	A.J. Puk	2.108		-1.8
2	Sergio Romo	2.103		-0.6
2	JT Chargois	2.102		0.7
2	David Phelps	2.092		-7.5
2	Bryan Baker	2.088		-6.4
2	Josh Staumont	2.087	86	-7.3
2	Rafael Montero	2.087	25	0
2	Daniel Hudson	2.084	16	1
2	Tyler Rogers	2.081	7	-4.5
2	Trevor Gott	2.078		-2.1
2	Raisel Iglesias	2.071	100	5.6
2	Alex Wood	2.069	100	-19.3
2	Sam Selman	2.067		13
2	Seranthony Dominguez	2.064	2	-4.6
2	JT Brubaker	2.062	2	-55.6
2	Trevor Stephan	2.061	2	4.7
2	Chad Kuhl	2.060	32	28.7
2	Andres Munoz	2.050	98	-0.9
2	Phillips Valdez	2.049		-3.9
2	Kendall Graveman	2.048	57	-5.3
2	Sandy Alcantara	2.047	100	6
2	Zach Jackson	2.046		-6.5
2	Reid Detmers	2.046	30	-27.5
2	Robbie Ray	2.043	100	-22.5
2	Erick Fedde	2.043		-47
2	Collin McHugh	2.040	7	-10.8
2	Eduardo Rodriguez	2.039	100	-41.2
2	Drew Smith	2.037		-3.1
2	Framber Valdez	2.030	100	-23.9
2	Joe Jimenez	2.024		-3.4
2	Steven Wilson	2.022		-0.5
2	Vince Velasquez	2.022		-31.9
2	Spencer Strider	2.019		-18.1
2	Jorge Lopez	2.016	100	3.2
2	Adonis Medina	2.012		-1.4
2	Bailey Ober	2.011	89	-13.4
2	Chris Flexen	2.010	16	-20.9
2	Hector Neris	2.006	59	-1.8
2	Joan Adon	2.006		-67.6
2	Evan Phillips	2.005		2.9
3	Dillon Tate	2.000		-4.9
3	Kyle Freeland	1.996	2	-66.3
3	Jameson Taillon	1.994	82	-28.6
3	Pierce Johnson	1.994	11	-9.8
3	Clay Holmes	1.991	36	-0.2
3	Jordan Romano	1.985	100	4.6
3	David Robertson	1.984	100	7
3	Sean Doolittle	1.979		-1.2
3	Brock Burke	1.973	7	3.7
3	Gabe Speier	1.972		1.1
3	Keegan Akin	1.956		-7.3
3	Craig Kimbrel	1.953	100	2
3	Cody Stashak	1.952		3
3	Justin Steele	1.951	7	-52.8
3	Mychal Givens	1.951	41	-6
3	David Bednar	1.948	100	-1
3	Duane Underwood Jr.	1.941		-22.4
3	Marcus Stroman	1.940	82	-65.9
3	Jakob Junis	1.938	2	37
3	Jose Quintana	1.937		-30.5
3	Tyler Kinley	1.936		-6.9
3	Mauricio Llovera	1.934		-2.9
3	Michael Wacha	1.932	18	13.9
3	Tim Mayza	1.915		-2.4
3	Mitch White	1.914		-9.4
3	Josh Fleming	1.913	7	-24
3	Luis Garcia	1.909	100	-5.5
3	Luis Garcia	1.909	100	-5.5
3	Devin Williams	1.908	59	-6.8
3	Cristian Javier	1.899	100	5.1
3	Rowan Wick	1.896	11	-1.4
3	Tony Gonsolin	1.891	100	-5.8
3	Andrew Chafin	1.882	5	-8.4
3	Mitch Keller	1.879	2	-64.7
3	Lucas Giolito	1.878	100	-12.7
3	Aaron Loup	1.875		-1.4
3	Taylor Hearn	1.873		-71.9
3	Reiver Sanmartin	1.861		-99.5
3	Matt Strahm	1.859	2	-4.5
3	Will Vest	1.855		-2.9
3	Kyle Hendricks	1.851	80	-47.3
3	Anthony Bass	1.849		-3.9
3	Alex Lange	1.841		-6.5
3	Zack Greinke	1.838	39	-29.2
3	Yoan Lopez	1.837		-15.2
3	Paul Sewald	1.833	57	0.7
3	Michael Fulmer	1.824	45	1.8
3	Tanner Scott	1.823	2	-7.4
3	Jason Adam	1.823		-2.2
3	Aaron Ashby	1.822	64	-29.1
3	Collin Snider	1.809		-3.9
3	Justin Grimm	1.808		-14.9
3	Elieser Hernandez	1.801	30	-31.9
3	Ian Anderson	1.796	100	-22.8
3	Daniel Lynch	1.796	30	1
3	Aaron Civale	1.791	43	-93.9
3	Justin Bruihl	1.787		-3.8
3	Andrew Kittredge	1.785	100	4
3	Lucas Luetge	1.781		-8
3	Chris Stratton	1.780	39	-5.3
3	Parker Mushinski	1.776		-38.2
3	Eli Morgan	1.774		-15.2
3	Hunter Greene	1.774	77	-46.3
3	Carlos Hernandez	1.772	5	-77.8
3	Taylor Rogers	1.772	100	6.2
3	Edwin Diaz	1.771	100	1.3
3	Jesse Chavez	1.768		-10.3
3	Bryan Abreu	1.767		-11.4
3	Steven Okert	1.764		2.6
3	Julio Urias	1.763	100	-4.7
3	Jose Urquidy	1.759		-38.3
3	Daulton Jefferies	1.758	5	-17.6
3	German Marquez	1.756	70	-56.4
3	Cal Quantrill	1.755	48	-23.8
3	John Brebbia	1.755		-3
3	Roansy Contreras	1.753	5	-3.6
3	Glenn Otto	1.752		5.4
3	Cole Irvin	1.751	20	-9.5
3	Alex Vesia	1.750		-4.3
3	Zach Plesac	1.747	57	-32.5
3	Kyle Nelson	1.745		-1.4
3	Raymond Kerr	1.738		0.7
3	Robert Suarez	1.733	9	-3.8
3	Dusten Knight	1.733		-15.2
3	Jhon Romero	1.732		-9.2
3	Jeff Hoffman	1.729		-6.8
3	Anderson Severino	1.723		-13
3	Aroldis Chapman	1.714	100	0.5
3	Tyler Thornburg	1.709		-8.2
3	Justin Lawrence	1.708		-3.5
3	Jackson Kowar	1.707		-185
3	Brad Boxberger	1.704		-2.5
3	Michael Lorenzen	1.698	34	7.6
3	Konnor Pilkington	1.691		1.9
3	Taylor Clarke	1.690		-2.2
3	Jose Berrios	1.688	100	-32.9
3	Dakota Hudson	1.681	5	2
3	Joely Rodriguez	1.674		-9.1
3	Dany Jimenez	1.667		2.7
3	Jake Cousins	1.667		-7.1
3	Jose Álvarez	1.661		-1.8
3	Zach Davies	1.660		-45.7
3	Antonio Senzatela	1.660		-43.3
3	Darren O’Day	1.659		-0.7
3	Adam Ottavino	1.658		-7.5
3	Jhoulys Chacin	1.656		-8.2
3	Jose Ruiz	1.656		-6.8
3	Brad Hand	1.654	9	-3.9
3	Blake Treinen	1.650	23	5.2
3	Matt Brash	1.649	52	-62.7
3	Diego Castillo	1.648	48	-4.1
3	Dauri Moreta	1.646		-6.9
3	Amir Garrett	1.637		1.8
3	Nick Pivetta	1.637	9	-85.2
3	Zack Littell	1.634		-2.8
3	Madison Bumgarner	1.634	16	-2.3
3	Tyler Matzek	1.633		-6.4
3	Archie Bradley	1.632		-11.1
3	Charlie Morton	1.632	100	-65.8
3	Corey Knebel	1.631	100	-1
3	Jake Odorizzi	1.630		-52.2
3	Hunter Harvey	1.626		-3.9
3	Zach Thompson	1.625		-100
3	Joey Krehbiel	1.625		-2.9
3	Seth Lugo	1.620	2	-8.9
3	Ranger Suarez	1.619	89	-36.5
3	Noe Ramirez	1.603		-6.6
3	Anthony DeSclafani	1.600	80	-68
3	Jordan Hicks	1.598	32	-15.3
3	Austin Davis	1.595		-8.1
3	Rich Hill	1.592	2	-36
3	Vladimir Gutierrez	1.590		-84.2
3	Scott Barlow	1.589	100	-0.1
3	Jordan Lyles	1.587		-51.7
3	Andrew Vasquez	1.580		-20.2
3	Chris Martin	1.576		-7.1
3	Kyle Finnegan	1.574	5	-6.4
3	Drew Smyly	1.573	2	-13.1
3	Griffin Jax	1.564		1.5
3	Matt Wisler	1.564		-3.2
3	Anthony Kay	1.559		-31.6
3	Bryse Wilson	1.557		-45
3	Jose Quijada	1.555		-8.4
3	Brett Martin	1.551		-10.3
3	Austin Voth	1.548		-12.3
3	Kutter Crawford	1.548		-17.4
3	Cody Poteet	1.546		-2.2
3	Dillon Peters	1.544		11.8
3	Tanner Banks	1.542		1.7
3	Matt Festa	1.541		-9
3	Daniel Norris	1.540		-9.3
3	Wily Peralta	1.536		-19.9
3	Giovanny Gallegos	1.536	100	-7.5
3	Rony Garcia	1.533		-6.7
3	Jake Woodford	1.531		2.3
3	Paolo Espino	1.530		-29.5
3	Anthony Misiewicz	1.527		-8.5
3	Aaron Bummer	1.524	2	-12
3	Yimi Garcia	1.521		-9.6
3	Hoby Milner	1.520		-2.3
3	Jose Suarez	1.506		-67.2
3	Andre Pallante	1.506		-4.4

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Dude

10 months ago

Can you talk about Josh Winder and Jacob Junis? Both have been pretty impressive so far.