What does Michael Jackson and O.J. Simpson have in common? If you’re thinking “guilty”, well I don’t know about that. I know what I think, but I’ll keep my thoughts to myself. Don’t want to ruffle any feathers. The answer I was looking for was that they both got off and there was a glove involved. Get it? Don’t like it? Well you can beat it. That’s right, just beat it. Even Mike Tyson said he wouldn’t let his eight year old son hang out with Jackson. Reggie maybe, but definitely not Michael. R Kelly outta get himself a right fielder’s glove!
First things first. Attached at the bottom of this post is an updated version of the spreadsheet. Here is a list of the updates (at least the ones I remember).
- I’ve added a few missing players (Shane Bieber, Yusei Kikuchi, Felipe Vazquez, Touki Toussaint and Ryan Brasier)
- Added total bases (TB) into the fantasy points calculations
- Roster size can now go up to 29
- You can set the number of outfielders to 5
- You can set the number of utility players to 3
- ADP values have been updated
- There were a few players (Adalberto Mondesi, Jose Martinez, Jeff McNeil and Chris Paddack) whose FPTS was not dynamically updating
Hopefully you’ve had the opportunity to digest my spreadsheet. Now I’d like to use it to help identify some over and undervalued players. How does one do this you might ask. Simple. Once you have your league specific rankings all you need to do is sort by “Draft Score”. Draft score compares a player’s league specific ranking against his average draft position. Sorting in descending order will reveal undervalued players, while ascending highlights the other end of the spectrum.
Let’s start with some some players that are being drafted much later than they should be. These are the players you should all be targeting at some point in your draft. This is where we can get some solid value picks. I’m using the “Hybrid Scoring” to generate the following lists of players.
Here is the criteria I used to narrow down the list of players. The player have a ranking better than 150 and a draft score greater than 36 (three rounds in a 12-teamer).
| Rank | Name | POS | FPTS | FVARz | ADP | Draft Score |
| 44 | Carlos Santana | 1B | 560.43 | 1.98 | 137 | 93 |
| 88 | Ketel Marte | 2B/SS | 496.66 | 1.28 | 192 | 104 |
| 116 | Josh Bell | 1B | 492.10 | 0.89 | 211 | 95 |
| 93 | Ender Inciarte | OF | 518.71 | 1.18 | 176 | 83 |
| 122 | Tucker Barnhart | C | 326.55 | 0.81 | 230 | 108 |
| 140 | Max Kepler | OF | 476.69 | 0.60 | 211 | 71 |
| 40 | Yadier Molina | C | 416.32 | 2.19 | 109 | 69 |
| 22 | Buster Posey | C | 443.53 | 2.61 | 91 | 69 |
| 110 | Andrelton Simmons | SS | 531.09 | 0.95 | 171 | 61 |
| 101 | Matt Olson | 1B | 501.51 | 1.04 | 158 | 57 |
| 29 | Daniel Murphy | 2B | 565.04 | 2.44 | 82 | 53 |
| 83 | Eric Hosmer | 1B | 522.79 | 1.38 | 136 | 53 |
| 65 | Travis Shaw | 2B/3B | 514.94 | 1.59 | 116 | 51 |
| 39 | Robinson Cano | 2B | 550.61 | 2.20 | 88 | 49 |
| 73 | Yasmani Grandal | C | 370.28 | 1.48 | 122 | 49 |
| 118 | Jose Quintana | SP | 473.69 | 0.87 | 166 | 48 |
| 58 | Nelson Cruz | DH | 552.69 | 1.65 | 106 | 48 |
| 37 | Ozzie Albies | 2B | 551.86 | 2.22 | 81 | 44 |
| 125 | Stephen Piscotty | OF | 489.88 | 0.78 | 168 | 43 |
| 85 | Rick Porcello | SP | 512.93 | 1.31 | 125 | 40 |
| 56 | Marcell Ozuna | OF | 553.13 | 1.65 | 93 | 37 |
| 112 | Andrew Heaney | SP | 478.76 | 0.92 | 148 | 36 |
And now for some overvalued players. The criteria used here is that the player has an ADP lower than 150. I included Tatis and Rafael Devers mostly because I wanted to.
| Rank | Name | POS | FPTS | FVARz | ADP | Draft Score |
| 621 | Fernando Tatis | SS | 194.93 | -4.55 | 181 | -440 |
| 305 | Jimmy Nelson | SP | 320.97 | -0.85 | 97 | -208 |
| 203 | Max Muncy | 1B/3B | 436.80 | 0.00 | 98 | -105 |
| 178 | Jurickson Profar | SS/1B/3B | 486.84 | 0.23 | 79 | -99 |
| 217 | Nathan Eovaldi | SP | 390.33 | -0.07 | 127 | -90 |
| 185 | Josh Donaldson | 3B | 483.58 | 0.17 | 100 | -85 |
| 225 | Rafael Devers | 3B | 463.02 | -0.11 | 158 | -67 |
| 157 | Adalberto Mondesi | SS | 500.56 | 0.45 | 94 | -63 |
| 200 | Yu Darvish | SP | 402.30 | 0.06 | 137 | -63 |
| 191 | Joey Gallo | OF/1B | 441.70 | 0.12 | 132 | -59 |
| 175 | Shane Bieber | SP | 418.47 | 0.25 | 117 | -58 |
| 108 | Carlos Correa | SS | 532.17 | 0.97 | 55 | -53 |
| 123 | Eugenio Suarez | 3B | 530.90 | 0.81 | 73 | -50 |
| 160 | Matt Chapman | 3B | 504.25 | 0.45 | 111 | -49 |
| 135 | A.J. Pollock | OF | 479.90 | 0.64 | 91 | -44 |
| 109 | Vladimir Guerrero | 3B | 543.24 | 0.97 | 69 | -40 |
| 72 | Noah Syndergaard | SP | 531.36 | 1.51 | 32 | -40 |
| 79 | Trevor Story | SS | 559.65 | 1.42 | 42 | -37 |
| 133 | Jon Lester | SP | 458.56 | 0.70 | 96 | -37 |
| 132 | Tommy Pham | OF | 484.00 | 0.70 | 96 | -36 |
| 114 | Charlie Morton | SP | 478.33 | 0.92 | 78 | -36 |
I’ve got a crazy idea I want to share. Believe it or not Mookie Betts might be the right choice for the first pick. However, I don’t have the cajones to take Betts over Mike Trout if I have the first pick. It would be much easier if I have the second pick. So here’s my idea. If you have the first pick, try and trade it to the guy with the second pick and see if you what you can get in return. Perhaps they’ll swap spots in the third round or maybe even give you their 8th round pick for your 9th round pick. Like I said, crazy idea.
When drafting, my suggestion is to sort by ADP in ascending order on the “Rankings” page. This will give you the best idea of which players are most likely to be drafted by your league mates. You should then use the “Rank” column to help you pick which player to taken when it’s your turn. Let me give you an example. Let’s say you’re on the clock in the 26 spot. Based on ADP, it the sheet says to pick Andrew Benintendi. This would actually be a solid pick. His ADP is 29 and his rank is 27. The numbers are pretty much right on the money. However, what you need to do is look a few spots up and down the chart at the surround players. What you would find is Anthony Rizzo about seven spots below. His ADP is 33, but his rank is 10. By drafting Rizzo you are getting much better value. Besides, if you don’t take him now, he won’t be there on your next turn.
Here is something that’s somewhat important to understand. Nearly every player has the potential to be a valuable pick if that player is drafted in the right draft spot. Allow me to explain. Take a player like Ketel Marte. Based on the hybrid scoring system I have him ranked as the 9th 2B, 14th SS and 87th overall player. His ADP is about 191. That’s the 16th round in 12-team leagues. Let’s be honest, who is really looking forward to drafting Ketel Marte? No one. But drafting him in the 14th round (two rounds prior to his ADP to ensure you get him), is still giving you tremendous value since based on your league specific ranking he should have been drafted in the 8th round. You get value in a draft pick any time you draft a player later than he should have been drafted. By doing this, you were able to punt on a position (2B/SS) and still get a valuable pick at that position. He’s multi-position eligible to boot.
Imagine the shortstop you really wanted was drafted by another team. Instead of taking the next ranked shortstop to make sure you get the next player on your shortstop list, why not maximize another position if you can punt on shortstop for now. Instead of drafting Trevor Story in the 4th round, take Juan Soto. Story has an ADP of 41 and a rank of 79. Soto has an ADP of 39 and a rank of 28. If Soto isn’t on the board, take J.T. Realmuto who has an ADP of 43 and a rank of 13. Or how about Patrick Corbin (46/45). Then go get Ketel in the 14th while you sip a Ketel and tonic and pat yourself on the back for making a good pick. I wonder if Marte’s agent has ever reached out to Ketel One to see if they need a new spokesperson. Put him in a jersey with the number one on it and hand him a bottle. Promotion over.
That’s all I’ve got for today. Keep on drafting…
malamoney’s 2019 Points League Spreadsheet (Updated 3/15)
Follow malamoney on Twitter at @malamoney
