Late steals, or “cheeky swipes” as they call it across the ocean, are sometimes hard to find late in drafts. Well not hard to find just takes some digging and speculation. The stolen base stat is a precipitously dying stat. I mean, why steal a base when you can just hit a homerun? Or that is the growing trend of the baseball thievery… Last year 83 players stole 10 or more bases. That number hasn’t really differed much in the last few years, the high in 2015 and the low being in 2016 of 79. So while overall steals are down, the number in between the leader and the low end is just increasing in smaller increments. So with the SAGNOF theory, saves and steals are the afterthought come draft day. Not completely forgotten about or disregarded. Just valued at a lower premium based on so many players being low category contributors across the board. Sneak steals on draft day and getting the most out of your squeeze per investment into draft picks is the name of the game. Paying a premium for the big hitting steals guys like Billy Hamilton, Dee Gordon and obvious top-5 overall pick in Trea Turner are all well and good, but at what cost in relation to their draft pick? So the helpfulness of this post is to look at value according to ADP and the steals value the will give our team come opening day in the counting stat department. Most of the players with steal appeal are MI eligible and on draft day, if you miss out early, it seems like the best place to look for straight SAGNOF satisfaction.
Here is a table of steals, caught stealing, and total steals across all of the MLB for the last five years so you didn’t think I was lying to you about the accumulation factors with SB’s…
Please, blog, may I have some more?
