When trying to determine overlooked players for the upcoming season I always take a peek back in time. Last year’s sleepers can be a good start. They may not necessarily be the classically coined “post-hype sleeper” but players that were intriguing going in to last year and did fine. They can easily slip right in line again especially if they are young. Twins’ outfielder Max Kepler fits the bill. Still 25, now entering his third season in the majors, Kepler has established himself as a pretty okay player. Coming into 2017, many expected some sort of breakout. Unfortunately, his production in 2017 mimicked 2016 a little too closely. But why can’t 2018 be the year we all wanted 2017 to be for Kepler?
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The other day I had a dream that Giancarlo and I were hosting a white party in the Hamptons, and I turned to Giancarlo and said, “You know who else I wish were here?” And he said, “Zsa Zsa Gabor?” And I said, “No, we’re not gay in the traditional sense. We’re only gay for each other.” Then he said, “Well, who do you wish were here then, silly?” And I said, “Ronald Acuna,” only I said it in exclamation marks shaped like Gregorian letters, if Gregorian letters is what you call these things I’m typing out with my hand-toes. That’s right, snitches, Greycarlo is sending out Evites and Ronald Acuna’s invited! And guess what, jerks? I also drafted Ronald Acuna on a fantasy baseball team (for SEO)! This league was hosted by CBS’s Scott White, and all your favorite ‘perts were there, like that one guy whose name you forgot, and that other guy who has diabetes who you also can’t remember. They were all there! Oh, and returning champ, our very own, Lance Broshitz! Anyway, here’s my 12-team, NL-Only draft with some thoughts:
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This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft. Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.
The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.
These numbers should only be used directionally. Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source. These are based on the Steamer/Razzball projections.
While I stand behind these numbers as they are part of the foundation behind my Player Rater $ estimates, I do not use these as part of my draft. I prefer to add up the dollar values per category. Same difference I suppose but it is easier to see counting totals for ratios and it lets me fixate less on the numbers (e.g., I see $7, I know they are good…I don’t fixate on 20 SBs vs 25 SBs).
The 2018 Razzball Commenter Leagues are now open! Free to join with prizes! All the exclamation points!
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While most things stay the same, the more they don’t change. I believe this is the old adage that I read on the men’s room urinal wall. I had to skip past the “For a good time call or be here at 7:00 PM for a good time” stuff, but that struck me as something that made sense so I am running with it. How it relates to steals this week is that steals are a patterned beast. Last year there were 2,527 steals across MLB by all 30 teams. The number of importance right now is the number from the leadoff spot in the mine-up. That number is 674 steals, or 27.5% of all the teams steals came from the top of the order. For your curiosity, the next four spots with steals frequency are 2nd, 8th, 7th and 9th. The next four spots combined to make up nearly 40% of the remaining steals. Which, if you are a math wizard, steals aren’t the favorite destination for the meat of the order. Now, not every hitter hit at the top of the lineup last year. So figuring out who is going to hit where in the lineup and predicting that teams propensity to steam from that spot is the trick. Digging a little deeper and some other SAGNOF tidbits are after the jump…
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2018 Fantasy Baseball Team Previews: Milwaukee Brewers
March 14, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Team Previews | 2 Commentsby: MB
Welcome to Razzball’s 2018 team previews. Over the next couple of months, we’ll be previewing all of the teams and talking to writers who represent those teams around the web. We want to provide the best and most in-depth fantasy projections to go along with the asking the most useful questions to those who know their teams best. We want to talk about the players in the first half of your draft and also the deep sleepers that make you log into google and start watching Midwest Single-A ball for hours. Just kidding, don’t do that, hopefully we don’t go that far…
The Milwaukee Brewers showed an interesting way to start winning baseball games last year. After a short period of sub-par baseball, they built an efficient line up without spending a ton of money or going through a 5 year rebuilding period. Eric Thames came out of the gate tearing the cover off of the ball and Travis Shaw outproduced his projections… by a lot. Orlando Arcia and Domingo Santana both got a full season’s worth of at bats and showed that they are here to stay. The Brewers also found a strike out artist in Corey Knebel to close games out. Well, this off season, the Brewers got a little more aggressive. Milwaukee added Lorenzo Cain and Christian Yelich who are both balanced hitters who can also scoot on the base paths. Lead prospect analyst of Rotowire, James Anderson joined me to talk more about the BrewCrew.
Please, blog, may I have some more?And we have have our first stupid team decision! Don’t worry, there will be more. Or maybe I should say Willie be more. Or maybe should say Willie be less now. The Rangers decided to send down Willie Calhoun to start the year. I’d laugh if I wasn’t so horrified by this terrible decision. Talk about blatantly thinking about a bottom line vs. what’s best for the team. On one hand, Willie Calhoun was ready to help the team win right now. On the other hand, the Rangers are as cheap as my Jewish grandmother who used to order three free lemon wedges, two sugar packets and make lemonade at the table. Hey, she escaped Nazi Germany in the middle of the night. What’s your excuse, Texas Rangers?! In my Willie Calhoun fantasy from way back in October, I predicted Calhoun could be in the minors until June. Looks like I didn’t underestimate the Rangers’ boneheadedness (big word of the day!). Now the Rangers will go with a blahtoon of the Asian lion, Ryan Rua, and Drew Robinson. I’ve updated my top 100 outfielders, top 500 and War Room. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2018 fantasy baseball:
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2018 Spring Training Positional Battles: AL Central
March 13, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Team Previews | 6 Commentsby: Son
For the upcoming season, Fangraphs has four teams projected for a run differential greater than 100. Three of those teams reside in the AL Central. Ha! For shits and giggles, the fourth team is the Miami Jeters. No wonder Chief Wahoo’s smile is so big. The division is straight forward so my only question regarding the AL Central is: why is the logo for the White Sox black? Wouldn’t white with black trim make more sense?
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RCL Update: Learn Your ADPs
March 13, 2018 | Our Leagues, Razzball Commenters League | 29 Commentsby: MattTruss
The fantasy baseball season has officially kicked off and we have real, live draft data to sift through. Numbers nerds, assemble! We have spreadsheets, charts and ADP, oh my! It was a busy first week here at Razzball Commenter Leagues HQ, but I’ve gone through each league that has drafted and added their drafts to a master spreadsheet in order to calculate RCL ADP. We’ve had sixteen leagues draft already, so there’s plenty of numbers to look at. The first week wasn’t always smooth with a few RCLs not filling to the required twelve managers, but drafting anyway. We even had one draft start with ten managers and finish with eleven! The managers, they’re multiplying! As with any changes in life, bumps and hiccups are to be expected. If you are in one of the leagues with too few managers, you are welcome to play the league out, that’s your call, however the stats unfortunately will not count towards to the RCL Master Standings. In the future, if you notice your league is close to drafting but someone has dropped out, leaving you short a manager hit us up on Twitter: @Razzball or @MattTruss and let us know. You can also leave a comment in Grey’s most recent post and/or invite a friend to join. I know, sacrilege to tell your fantasy baseball friends you read Razzball, but sharing is caring. Speaking of sharing, jump below and I’ll share with you a fancy RCL ADP spreadsheet for your perusing pleasure…
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What better topic to get Grey’s blood boiling early in the week than top starting pitchers for fantasy. If you don’t know, not sure how you couldn’t, but Grey hates pitchers in the top three rounds. He’d rather live out his days as Pablo Sandoval’s bosom sweat mediation pad than draft Clayton Kershaw. So we use Grey’s Top 40 Starting Pitchers as our guide, and dive into the strategy of building a pitching staff. We go tier by tier, directing you on who to avoid, who to draft, and where to buy the best boba filled refreshments. #Bobalife. Finally, please make sure to support our sponsor by heading over to RotoWear.com and entering promo code “SAGNOF” for 20% off the highest quality t-shirts in the fantasy sports game. It’s the latest edition of the Razzball Fantasy Baseball Podcast:
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2nd Basemen To Target, 2018 Fantasy Baseball
March 13, 2018 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 195 Commentsby: Grey
Psst! This post is gonna list 2nd basemen that you should target in your 2018 fantasy baseball drafts. I’m whispering because you don’t want everyone to see this post. No, I can’t whisper louder, then it WOULDN’T BE WHISPERING! Okay, gig’s up (or maybe that’s jig’s up), the love I’m about to reiterately (Made Up Word of the Day!) confirm is on these guys I love later in drafts. I’m not going to mention Ian Happ other than this one mention of him where I say I’m not going to mention him. I’m not mentioning Happ other than this mention of not mentioning him because these are players that you’re looking at later and all of them have ADPs after 200. Some could be the 2nd baseman on your team, they are more than likely MIs. This is a (legal-in-all-countries-except-Croatia) supplement to the top 20 2nd basemen for 2018 fantasy baseball. Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2018 projections. Anyway, here’s some 2nd basemen to target for 2018 fantasy baseball:
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USA Today may no longer appreciate the insights shared by Larry King in his long-running column but we at Razzball were thrilled when he accepted our invitation to share his thoughts on Fantasy Baseball….
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We all believe in Grey. That is why we are here. It is why we read every recap, every buy/sell, and why we all spend hours, and countless reams of paper, printing Grey’s rankings. We want to dominate our fantasy baseball drafts and our leagues and do everything in our power to humiliate and destroy our friends (which is what true friendship is all about).
Razzball was built on the power of Grey’s Greydar and his ability to spot fantasy baseball studs before anyone else. It works because Grey’s Greydar is a million times better than anyone else’s Greydar since he is Grey and everyone else is not. Keep in mind, however, that ranking players is not black and white. There are many shades of grey, which explains why Grey is the best Grey there is.
Nevertheless, even the best will have a few misses when ranking hundreds of players. This is why I have been tasked with questioning the Greyness of Grey’s great Greydar, specifically the players that Grey may have overrated for this upcoming season. We are calling this analysis: Over the Greydar.
In this first installment of Over the Greydar I focus on the high-end starting pitchers that I think Grey may be a little too high-end on this season:
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