Finally, a straightforward post about fantasy baseball strategy for a 60-game season. I gave you fantasy baseball strategy for batting average in 60 games and basically shrugged, gave you fantasy baseball strategy for wins in 60 games, which I wrote like a high schooler who had to write 1,000 words on what I did this summer, and wrote a couple hundred really’s. None of this is going to be easy, which I think is why it will be fun. But will this be like your usual fantasy baseball season? No, not at all. Starters will be like following fantasy football advice if guys you drafted were only to play once every fifth game, and 12 times all year. It’s a bit ludicrous, if I’m being honest. Fun when compared to real life? You’re crazy if you don’t think so right now, or have tunneled your ostrich head so far into the sand you can’t see daylight. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for strikeouts?
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These will be our draft rooms, and we’ll have to adapt on the fly.
For the past few seasons, I’ve been playing extremely early NFBC Draft Champions leagues with Donkey Teeth. Have gotten into Fantrax of late, too, with B_Don and DT setting up Best Balls of multiple shapes and sizes. This allows us that Red Dead sensation of fresh powder. Open prairie. A drafter and his wits. I was shocked to learn they update the ADPs even during the first few drafts and think the drafts should maintain the starting ADPs throughout, though I suppose it only makes an impact that first month or so, and I suppose not many people are handwriting and color-coding their positional breakdowns.
I was always a geek for a deep-sea diving book or TV special. Find the Giant Squid, kind of thing. These past few years, I’ve become a geek for the depths of these draft rooms, and just this week I’ve geeked out a little getting a look at DT’s battle of the podcasts draft just now exiting round 36. I’m seeing a lot of fun names on the board beyond the 600s, so that’s where I’ll set the arbitrary line for this article.
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Wait…Baseball!? If I am being honest, I did not think we would have a season to watch and give us a distraction from the upcoming election season…ohhh and that whole Global Pandemic thingy. But really, it is amazing to think we will have a season and there will be numerous unique adaptations from a fantasy perspective as we no longer have the benefit of patience over a long season. A hot month can lead to an MVP campaign or the Mendoza Line!
We also cannot forget the bigger picture. These players are real people in a highly unique situation. All I can do is hope for their continued safety as they try their best to give us an escape from 2020.
So how am I reacting in the middle infield rankings? Let us look at four key areas of change.
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With all the changes to the 2020 season to the 2020 seasons swirling around, I wanted to narrow in on one specific item: the DH in the NL, and specifically, the impact to pitchers. I’m comparing Rudy’s Steamer/Razzball projections from March to those here in July; we’ll focus in on changes in projected ERA.
At first glance, it’s easy to minimize this change. After all, we’re talking about 2-3 plate appearances per start, and pitchers aren’t complete zeros at the plate. In a reduced season, this is likely only 25-35 plate appearances over 10-12 starts. How big of a deal is it?
To set a baseline, let’s first look at the impact on AL starters. Here’s the top 50, comparing their March to July ERAs:
Please, blog, may I have some more?BABIP is going to fuel batting average this year, which is to say good luck finding lucky hitters. Now one thousand words on how maybe we can pare down the luck. Since 2000, only three players have qualified for the batting title and hit .400+ BABIP. Last year was a particularly weird year. In 123 games and 518 plate appearances, Tim Anderson hit .335 with a .399 BABIP. Like a sushi chef who smells his fingers after handling hirame, “That’s fluky.” Yoan Moncada had 559 plate appearance and a .406 BABIP. (The other two .400+ BABIPs since 2000 were Manny Ramirez in 2000 and his .403 BABIP and Jose Hernandez in 2002 with a .404 BABIP.) Someone this year is going to have a .425+ BABIP and hit .350+. I hope it’s Ketel Marte, because I own him in every league. Pulling focus and moving into a close-up shows that in August of last year there were 15 guys who had a .400 BABIP. I’d el oh el if I weren’t such a serious man. In September, there were also 12 guys who had .400+ BABIPs. Wait, it gets better. In a full slate of games in September, Moncada had a .520 BABIP and hit .412. Yo, Yoan, you Tony Gywnn Jr. Jr. or no? Okay, cool. You might think BABIP is fueled by speed in the short-term, to which I say, Ryan McBroom, Wil Myers and Kyle Schwarber were in the .400+ BABIP group in September. BABIP is going to make batting averages a short-term coin flip, but we still need to figure out some battle plan. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for batting average?
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Bear or Bull: Get Comfy For Dylan Bundy?
July 7, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 2 Commentsby: Son
There was a period of time in my life when I was a brand name snob. It was not a time I am proud of, but it happened. Fortunately, it didn’t last long, as I became woke. Why am I spending more money on something that is essentially for others? F that! I ain’t spending $10 on a Hanes white t-shirt when I can stroll on down to the swap meet and get 5 for $10. My life became more about comfort and utility, which suited me much more. The same concept applies for fantasy baseball. Sometimes, you pay for the name brand and you receive the luxurious benefits. There are times, though, when a swap meet special emerges that performs similarly to a more well-known name. Dylan Bundy is being drafted as the 84th pitcher and 217th overall player in NFBC drafts from 5/1 to 7/5. Steamer has his projections similar to a pitcher that is being selected 50 slots higher and 100 spots in the overall rankings. Let’s dig in.
Bundy is a 27-year-old, 6′ 1″, and 200 pound right-handed pitcher. He was selected by the Baltimore Orioles with the fourth overall pick back in 2011. He dominated Single-A and even made a MLB appearance his rookie season. Unfortunately, he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2013 then missed time in 2015 due to a shoulder injury. It wasn’t until 2017 that Bundy pitched over 150 innings in a season. Over the last three seasons, the numbers have been meh: 4.83 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, and 1.7 HR/9. The walk and strikeout rates have been decent, though at 2.9 BB/9 and 8.9 K/9.
So, why Bundy?
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Once upon a time in March, while ramping up to the previous start to the regular season, I put out this article on late-round hitters to target for specific categories. While some of it still applies to our shortened season, *cough* Adam Eaton *cough*, there are some players who have emerged as contenders. Next week, I’ll attempt to wade through the sh!t-show that is pitching categories. As more and more news emerges that indicates most starters will be throwing about 60 pitches per start to start the year, things will certainly be hairy. Let’s get to the hitters!
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RCL Update: 60 Game Strategy
July 7, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Our Leagues, Razzball Commenter Leagues |by: MattTruss
I will be honest with you, I’m still not sure how to approach this season strategy-wise. I was pretty certain we were heading to no baseball, then Manfred dropped 60 games on us and even said we were never going to play more than that anyway. What exactly was the point of dragging your league through the mud for two months of negotiations then? This makes no sense to me. Couldn’t we have just announced a 60 game season back in April? Oh baseball, why are you so screwy? Now I’m scrambling trying to figure out how to approach this season all while keeping tabs on who has tested positive, who is asymptomatic and who isn’t and also who has opted out and if I’ve already drafted them. This is bonkers with a side of crazy. I do have some thoughts on how I’ll be approaching this crazy Razzball Commenter League season though, so let’s dive in.
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These unprecedented times call for unprecedented preparation for upcoming fantasy drafts. Never before have we had the worry of a player opting out of the season after or even during our drafts. So now we plan, we update, we read the news (baseball news), and we pray our teams stay in tact. Is this a silly pastime? Absolutely! Are there many much more important issues? Of course! But level with me, we all need some release and I like many of you hope this sixty game sprint can provide the escape we all need. In this vein Grey and I breakdown the opt outs, the positive tests, and the opportunities created. It’s the latest episode of the Razzball podcast in it’s most apocalyptic form.
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Brent (@ExitVelo_BH), Jordan (@ExitVelo_JR), and Zach (@Braffz), breakdown the MLB 60 game schedule and what teams have the easiest path to the playoffs. The Twins, Padres, Indians, and White sox have a great chance to make the playoff and compete. The Angels, Athletics, and Rockies have some of the tougher schedules in the league. We discuss the underrated fantasy assets on teams that will compete. Can Wil Myers, Franmil Reyes, Luis Robert make impacts on their rosters? We discuss our award winners in a 60 game season. Can Josh Hader as a reliever get CY Young consideration? We all agree Josh Hader will be a very valuable asset in fantasy leagues. We talk about the future of the Exit Velocity Podcast and guests we will feature, highlighted by SP Streamer, Carter Capps, Adam Aizer, Chelsea Ladd, and Deegs. We also launched a new podcast store on Instagram (exitvelocitypc), which include shirts, mugs, koozies, wine glasses, and beer steins!
Please, blog, may I have some more?Dudes and five lady dudes, pitching is going to be a mess in 2020. Pitching is usually where I excel at pinpointing guys to draft and avoid, and right now I’m looking at an array of hot takes: “Top starters are more valuable! “Top middle relievers are more valuable!” “Tops are bottoms, and I’m not talking about baseball anymore!” I can’t tell hot takes from shiitakes. Usually I’m able to say, “With 100% confidence, I would not draft a top starter.” This year, if you’re saying anything with 100% confidence, you’re lying. Seriously, don’t trust anyone who is confident in predicting anything in a 60-game season. We’ve never seen anything like this and may never again. Embrace it? Sure. But “Be Water” like Bruce Lee said, and adapt. With so few innings to prepare for the season in Summer Camp, will top starters even be ready to go? That alone should shut up the “You need top starters” people. With so few innings in the actual season, that should also shut up the “Don’t pay for starters this year” people. Instead, let’s just break down the categories, and see if we can’t just win those. Laura also just gave you a solid look at possible ERA strategy. So, with a 60-game season, what is a fantasy baseball strategy for ERA & WHIP?
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[places soapbox on ground, stands tall]
Starting pitchers are more important this year. But you should still take hitters first. Thank you for coming to my TED Talk.
For most fantasy league formats, you are chasing wins in 2020. Thus, WAGNOF (Wins Ain’t Got No Face). With starting pitchers, you’re looking for #1/#2 starters on good teams, who will pitch a lot of innings and contribute to Wins, ERA, WHIP, and K. Relievers with great K/9–even middle relievers–will help immensely with ERA, WHIP, and K. But wins? Welcome to the Twilight Zone. Whereas wins used to the be the domain of starters (and Twins’ middle relievers), we’re already getting reports of top pitchers having inning limits and pitch counts. So, we’ll be seeing a lot of wins going to middle relievers, which makes it much more difficult to predict that category (unless you’re a lifelong Twins fan, holla!). If you don’t believe me on this, then take the advice from three-time Trout Fishing Champion Grey Albright. If you’re in a league that uses Quality Starts, the top three tiers of pitchers are even more valuable because you’ll be relying on pitchers who stay in games AND who don’t give up earned runs. The coronavirus and the style of play in 2020 placed a high scarcity on pitchers who meet these requirements. That said, crafty managers can combine mid-tier pitchers with relievers who provide elite ratios and make an effective pitching staff that will win leagues. So, let’s teach you to be a crafty manager.
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