March is here, and that means one thing: filling out a bracket or two for March Madness. Oh, wait, wrong sport.

In the world that really matters, it is fantasy baseball drafting season. For many, that means after hours and months of going over every player and compiling your own rankings and checking them twice, it is time to match wits against others and quickly learn that the perfect mock draft you created for yourself needs to be thrown out of the window after the second round.

When it comes to fantasy baseball, there are seeming a gazillion types of leagues you can join, from the stats that are going to be used, whether it a head-to-head or points league to the number of teams in the league. Also, is the league a redraft league or are you starting a new dynasty league. That is an important factor, because if it is a dynasty league, how you build your team is very different from a redraft league – or at least it should be.

We all want to win right away, but in dynasty leagues the goal is to win not just this season, but for multiple seasons. If you draft a team that is reliant on older players, you may do well this year, even next. But you don’t want to win just now. You want to win every year. So with the goal of building a team that wins today, tomorrow and three years from now, below is my list of Top 25 Shortstops for dynasty leagues.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Fri 8/8
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | OAK

For all my rankings this year, I have gone along with Major League Baseball’s numberwanging insofar as prospect eligibility is concerned. Within these specialized rules, we find a days-on-roster component and a magical August 14, 2020 demarcation line and I suppose the traditional 50-inning barrier matters as well, although a relief pitcher is much more likely to graduate on time served than innings pitched. 

All that is to say: hard pass on MLB’s shizz for the purposes of this list. 

The only way forward is to minimize fuzziness and speculation. Also I believe this list functions as a way for deep leaguers to find MiLB eligible relievers on the wire. 

One caveat: anyone currently on a starting pitcher path is disqualified. Converted starters make up a big portion of the player pool, so we’ll blend them in here if/when that switch happens but not before.

I’ll also set aside a small group who could switch and quickly leap the ranks like Devin Williams and Jonathan Hernandez have here. I suppose JB Bukauskas qualifies for the switch-and-leap bucket, but he’s in the rankings already because Arizona has clarified they want him in the bullpen this spring. Likewise, Genesis Cabrera and Taylor Hearn are out for the moment because the Cardinals and Rangers have them starting this spring. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

As we approach our first Top 100 hitters post of the season in the coming weeks, I was contemplating what types of hitter profiles would be be ideal during the run-up.  Then it dawned on me, my years of dynasty love for a certain Florida man beckoned for analysis as his ADP climbed.  His five tool potential and the disrespect of playing time in the Houston heat were about to be recognized.  But alas, the Kyle Tucker profile was not meant to be.  if you haven’t had a chance to read the work of art that is Grey’s Schmohawk, please stop now.  Do not pass go.  Do not collect $200.  Go forth and read up on Mr. Tucker.

Now that I have been preempted with an article better than any mere mortal would have provided, it is only right that we slip back down the draft board in the AL west outfield (Yahoo positional eligibility) ranks to see what awaits us at a much more palatable draft price.  We will review two Mariners including unanimous Rookie of the Year Kyle Lewis and upstart Dylan Moore for this rendition of the 2021 Fantasy Baseball Hitter Profiles.

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Howdy do, folks.

The Great Fantasy Baseball Invitational (TGFBI) is well underway, and all of us writer folk are eagerly drafting and impatiently waiting between picks. Spring Training games are in full force. The weather’s getting a little warmer (at least around here). It’s just a great time of year.

But with all that, there’s of course a flip side. The flip side being that human beings are fragile things, and when games start, you can just bet your little button nose that injuries will start a-pilin’ up.

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The loosely related quote from the title de jour involved a peacock and a lesser known Walberg (don’t ask me which one, I refuse to store that info) and Will Ferrell buddy-cop film movie flick, and that scene sprung to mind immediately when researching Jon Berti. Hey man, you don’t want my bird puns, don’t leave such low-hanging fruit, ya know? And while it doesn’t measure up to the violent crimes done by the many parents with the last name Ester, and then naming their daughters Polly (those heathens are out there), one could say that the pun isn’t just apt due to, you know, the whole bird thing, but go Matrix-level deep. Okay, maybe deeper, let’s say Inception deep? 4x the deep bro. (Never go full-Tenet folks.) It’s also apt because of the untapped potential that lies within this middle infielder. *Points at forehead.

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For the first time in the history of Torres, yours truly will be participating in the NFBC Main Event.  I didn’t do anything to earn that entry, I just decided that it was more worthwhile to invest a lot of money in a fantasy baseball tournament than it was to put food on the table or replace the holey underwear I have on right now. But what if I win? Well, I’ll still be wearing holey underwear but at least I’ll have an extra $150,000 to invest in fantasy baseball next year! While taking down the Main Event would be fantastic, I also recognize that it’s not the most likely outcome.  See, the people I’m playing against are the best of the best, the “sharks” of the fantasy baseball world. A minnow like me is going to need to really prepare and come up with a solid game plan to stand a chance here. So why not kill two birds (or fish) with one stone by writing an article about it and including you in that process?

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Strongly debated not writing this post. It bums out to write it. I loved Teoscar Hernandez last year and told everyone to draft him around 200th overall. What a fantastic time was had by me and you, and him, I guess. What pushed me over the top thinking Teoscar Hernandez was overrated was our Steamer auction values. Not saying that’s the end all be all, but the icing on the shizz sundae? Oh, yeah, for sure. On our auction values, he’s ranked around that of Nick Solak. *stares into the abyss, the abyss stares back, unblinkingly* Yo, abyss, you best be blinking when I stare at you forlornly! The more I thought about Teoscar Hernandez being ranked around 150 overall for Steamer, the more I thought, “That’s prolly where he would’ve been ranked and drafted this year if we had 162 games last year. Also, why am I choking?” Then I realized I had the end of a hot dog lodged in my throat, and fell on my beanbag to dislodge it. “My beanbag” is a euphemism; I don’t live in a 1970’s basement den. Now I’m much closer to the once-absent-for-a-week Mr. Belvedere. If you know, you know. Actually, if you don’t know, I’ll tell you. Mr. Belvedere once missed a week of filming because he sat on his testicles. HA! Sorry, but everyone should know that. If you Google “Mr. Belvedere” you only need to add an S and it autofills “sat on his own balls.” I’m sorry, that will never get old. Okay, okay. Trying to move on, but I am snorting! What the eff, Mr. Belvedere? Teoscar is going around 70th ADP overall, and Steamer has him for 150, and I have him after the top 100, so…Well, again with some stank! So, what can we expect from Teoscar Hernandez for 2021 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

It’s a relatively rare feat to witness a player finish in the top-two overall on the Razzball player rater as well as in NL MVP voting two consecutive seasons, then follow up such elite fantasy production with a 99th percentile exit velocity, 98th percentile hard hit rate and 88th percentile xwOBA in the third year to follow. That’s two years of high-end, top-two fantasy production followed by sexy batted ball metrics in the third year. What’s even rarer is to see a player with that exact profile currently possessing an ADP of 12th overall in drafts entering the 2021 season. Impossible, you say? Well, so is the story of Christian Yelich. And although we all know those batted ball metrics don’t tell the full story of Yelich’s 2020, we can at least all agree that his current ADP is straight-up bonkers, right? Especially when considering that Yelich’s two consecutive seasons in the top two on the Razzball player rater (2018, 2019) represented full seasons, while his disastrous 2020 campaign came in an abbreviated 60-game slate. What is this madness — and how can you capitalize on it as a fantasy owner this upcoming season?

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I used to trade stocks for a living. I started out as a market maker for NASDAQ stocks right before the internet bubble then traded my own account for over 10 years. After the kids were born, I transitioned from day trading to more longer-term, position trading. With the recent euphoric market, the day trading hat is back on. With that said, there are so many things I’ve learned from trading, mostly about human psychology but that’s a discussion for another day. The one tenet that became very important for me was price discovery. Where were buyers and sellers willing to transact and at what price would there be an equilibrium. You can glean a ton of information from watching the action and identify spots of support and resistance, which I used to limit risk. If buyers were no longer willing to support a stock at a certain price, then something has changed and it’s best to get flat and reassess. Vice versa on the sell side. The closer I could buy or sell to these spots, the more information I would have and the easier I’d be able to identify if I was wrong, saving me money in the long run because all trades are not winners. For example, say a stock was trading in the $10 to $12 range. After watching the action, buyers would always step in at $10 and sell at $12. So, buy at $10 and sell at $12, right? I wouldn’t want to buy at $12 because I know sellers are stepping in there, so what’s the point? If the price broke through $10, then I’d know it’s probably going lower and if it went through $12 then it’s probably going higher. In that scenario, I don’t mind paying over $12 once I got confirmation that the sellers there were cleaned out. The bigger the sample size the better the information. This is a simplistic example but you get the point.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Framber Valdez pitched after his fractured finger happened, so will be assuming it’s not too terrible. Haha, I’m lyin’ to myself! Now now NOW! Calm down, Grey, it’s gonna all work out. *turns abruptly to mirror* Is it? So, this isn’t great news, but it’s early enough, and it was his ring finger on his pitching hand, but our writer, Coolwhip, looked at his grips for me (because I was too panicked), and it seems Framber only uses that finger 10% of the time with his change, which isn’t a good pitch for him. He’s primarily a sinker/curve guy. I reranked him, placing him in an area where I’d still draft him, but obviously this isn’t the ideal stuff you want to see. Unless you’re a demented ess oh bee. You a demented ess oh bee? Hmm…? Are you? Tell me! Sorry, I’m amped up. Speaking of which, kinda, he will need to ramp up to game-shape after returning in May, so I’m conservatively projecting him to return end of May, early-June. Okay, clerical work now *adjusts priest’s collar* Here’s my adjusted top 80 starters for 2021 fantasy baseball with new projections; top 100 for 2021 fantasy baseball with Framber removed; top 500 for 2021 fantasy baseball with Framber moved down about 125 spots, and my pitchers’ pairings tool adjusted. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in spring training for 2021 fantasy baseball:

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I play in some deep dynasty leagues. The kind where every at bat has value. Every pulse has value. In leagues like these, guys like Gio Urshella, Mike Yazstremski and Tommy Edman get picked up before their first big chance. I love these large player pools and have discovered something of talent for climbing aboard the airbus just before real helium hits for the Trent Grishams, Randy Arozarenas, and Jake Cronenworths of the world. 

I’m not suggesting the players in this series are locks to produce like those names in the intro. I am however saying these are the freemium-level dynasty and draft champions pieces I’m acquiring now in as many leagues as possible because I love their intersection of proximity, opportunity and talent.

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Steals might ain’t got no face, but team stolen base attempts definitely do got yes face. (Totally crushed this lede!)

Today we’re going to get into something that normally makes fantasy baseball FAR superior to fantasy football in my opinion: coaching decisions. You could have the best wide receiver in the game, but whoopsie daisy — Mike McCarthy decides he wants to run the ball a lot today. Now you’re out $500. At least with fantasy baseball, the manager will always put his best lineup on the field and it is completely up to the hitter to do his job. The coach isn’t telling him “Hey you, I don’t even want you to swing up there.” 

Today’s article deals with managerial decisions on the basepath — specifically the stealing of second base. I’m going to let you in on some secrets on which managers have itchy trigger fingers when they have a runner on first with an empty base 90 feet away and those who are a bit gun shy when it comes to sending their runners. (Wow with all the violent imagery. What is this, CPAC?) 

First, some alarming data — here are the average manager second base stolen base attempt percentages from the past 10 years. (Analytic nerds will soon refer to this stat as MASBSBAP.) 

Please, blog, may I have some more?