The Itch

Kansas City Royals Top 10 Prospects for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

January 15, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 28 Comments

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2022 wasn’t fun in the standings for Kansas City fans, but in the long arc of time, 2022 was a good year for the organization. MJ Melendez, Vinnie Pasquantino and Brady Singer all emerged as first-division starters. Melendez even looks like a functional defensive outfielder. Bobby Witt Jr. is also here and good. Needs work on the approach but who doesn’t. Every season brings them closer to the post-Dozier era, which is only addition by subtraction because the team insists he’s an everyday player. New Manager Matt Quataro figures to come in like a kind wind after years with Mike Matheny. Might be some playing-time surprises in our near future. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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# MLB Starting Lineups For Mon 8/4
ARI | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CIN | CLE | COL | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIA | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | ATH | CHW | DET | OAK | SEA | WSH
Jakkers

2023 Dynasty Rankings: 200-176

January 14, 2023 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Rankings | 15 Comments

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The start of the 2023 baseball season is just weeks away, but here at Razzball it is always baseball season. To get you ready to go for the upcoming year, here is the first installment of the 2023 Dynasty Rankings.

When it comes to dynasty rankings, you have to look at a little of this, some of that, and can’t forget about the other. You want a team that can contend for years, so do you look only at age? If you do that, it may compromise your team’s performance?

When evaluating players for dynasty leagues, the formula for success thus consists of many factors. It’s a dash of gut instinct mixed in with past experience and a whole lot of what the eye sees. You know a good player when you see him. But you can’t just go with the best player on the board.

The Rules (or at least guidelines)

That said, there are some basic rules I try to follow as much as possible:

Young over old
I’m always thinking five years down the road. Justin Verlander is great to have on your team this year, but what about next year and certainly in 2024? You will need veteran players, but you don’t want a whole team of veteran players.
Hitter over Pitcher
Since the introduction of the Rookie of the Year Award in 1947, 113 hitters have been awarded the Rookie of the Year compared to 39 pitchers. In this century alone, 33 hitters have been named ROY to 13 pitchers. Young hitters perform better than young pitchers, and veteran hitters are more consistent than veteran pitchers.
Starting Pitcher over Reliever
This is pretty easy to understand why. For the most part, you know what you are going to get from starters. As a group, relievers are so up-and-down it is maddening. Need an example? Aroldis Chapman. Need another? Josh Hader.
But, what about…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Joe Ryan, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

January 13, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Featured | 58 Comments

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Number one reason why I think you can punt top starters is there’s just so many starters you can draft later. Exhibit A: All these fantasy baseball sleepers. Subsection A in Exhibit A, or AA, as my uncle calls it, is Joe Ryan. Last year, Ryan went 13-8/3.55/1.10/151 in 147 IP. He’s being drafted around 147th overall. If you were to draft five Joe Ryans, a hand of Ryans, as they say in Moroccan markets, you’d have One Full Joe. One Full Joe is all you need to win your fantasy league. A hand of Ryans or One Full Joe gets you in the top three for ERA, Wins, WHIP and Ks. You need a few decent relievers — let’s call them a Sprinkling of Holmes. A Sprinkling of Holmes plus a hand of Ryans or a One Full Joe, and you have all the pitching you need. See, if your hand of Ryans were to fall a little, then you could grab onto an invisible strand of Holmes, and have a Sheer-Lock Holmes. Woof, you walked right into that nonsense. No, seriously, all you need to win your fantasy league is pitchers who do as well as the 30th best starter, give or take. Not saying they have to do better than their ranking, but, let’s be honest, I’m writing them up because I expect them to do better. Think about this with, I don’t know, outfielders. If you get a hand of Castellanosses, would you do top three in your league in hitting? I grabbed Castellanos, because he’s currently going about a dozen spots before Ryan. Or, what if you had a hand of Blackmen — uh, multiple Blackmons? He was ranked 39th overall last year for outfielders on the Player Rater, and Ryan was 39th for starters last year. You might be saying, “Sure, but you need the Sprinkling of Holmes, so not the same as only a hand of Blackmons.” Fine, fill the rest of your hitting with great hitters off waivers, which is what Holmes was last year, a waiver wire pick. You really think your hitting will be good enough with a hand of Blackmons and top waiver pickups at all other hitting spots? No, of course not. Pitching is just easier to figure out later. So, it would be nice to have a Sandy Alcantara, but you really only need him if your hand of Ryans turns into a hand of Berrios. A hand of Ryans is all you need. You can’t say that about any other position. So, what can we expect from Joe Ryan for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jesus Luzardo, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

January 12, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Featured | 60 Comments

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Can one fantasy baseball sleeper post for Jesus Luzardo double as a fantasy baseball sleeper post for the entire Marlins’ pitching staff? Here we discuss just that, and give you usable tips on turning holiday leftovers into something the whole family can enjoy! Welcome back to The Chew! What’s that? The Chew was canceled? Was Mario Batali canceled and took The Chew down with him or a separate set of canceling circumstances? By the by, you know you’ve done some real grimey shizz when you get canceled after getting famous while wearing Crocs. Jumping the hurdle of “wearing Crocs” needs so much forgiveness as it is, then you still ruined your career? Oh, you messed up really bad then. Any hoo! This isn’t about Crocs (thankfully), this is about all the incredible pitching the Marlins produce every year. No joke, I almost did an Edward Cabrera sleeper, and they’re kinda the same diff. They’ll both be 25 this year; they’ve both been in the minors so long the bell hop at the Motel 6 knows them by their first names; they’ll both be aces, and would already be an impact arm in the majors if not for a very spotty injury history; both might be lucky to throw 140 IP this year; semicolons are fun. The case for Edward Cabrera is he’s slightly cheaper in drafts, but he’s much riskier, due to most recent injuries, and Jesus Luzardo just has more service time under his belt. No lie, this post was originally “Edward Cabrera, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper,” but by the end of writing the third line, I made the switch, and I’m glad I did, because Jesus Luzardo might be more expensive (barely, still a bargain for the sleeperiness), he’s just a bit safer. In the end, it’s prolly gonna come down to grabbing Luzardo as a number three or four with upside vs. Edward Cabrera as a five or six with upside, and I’d draft both. If they both had 200+ innings in the majors under their belt, and were both guaranteed 160 IP, I’d go Edward Cabrera, but that’s not the case. So, what can we expect from Jesus Luzardo for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Itch

Cleveland Guardians Top 10 Prospects for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

January 11, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 20 Comments

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Even as 2022 was a great season for the Cleveland Guardians, their future looks brighter all the time. Nobody has more ready-soon, major-league-level starting pitchers in their system, which is a nice fit because you could make a case that nobody is better at developing pitchers, particularly in the early stages of their major league careers. 

 

1. RHP Daniel Espino | 22 | AA | 2024

Injuries kept Espino sidelined for much of 2022, but he was around long enough to leave a loud impression, striking out 35 batters in 18.1 Double-A innings and posting a 0.71 WHIP across those four starts. He’s listed at 6’2” 225 lbs and looks like a bodybuilder. Upside is as high as any pitcher in the minors thanks to an 80-grade fastball and double-plus slider. I’ve got 2024 listed as the ETA just because he hasn’t thrown that many innings, and the team is deep in pitchers both in the majors and on the cusp, but Espino could almost certainly help the major league club this season if he’s healthy.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Jeffrey Springs, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

January 10, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Featured | 63 Comments

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If you’re doing this right, and I think I’m doing it right, based on my results through the years, you see the same pitchers again and again when you search some of your favorite protocols for “breakout pitchers.” It doesn’t hurt that they were already good last year. Jeffrey Springs checks that box. His stats last year were 9-5/2.46/1.07/144 in 135 1/3 IP. How is that the 60-ish pitcher off the board and a guy going around 175th overall? Last year, Springs was the 37th best starter and 121st overall, so there’s value even if he simply repeats what he did last year. Last year Springs was better than Robbie Ray. Not saying he should be drafted before Ray, but it shows you just how big the discrepancy is between perceived value and actual value. There’s just so many possible starters to draft, it’s kinda silly. A guy like Chris Bassitt has been great for literally his entire career — has a 3.45 ERA in 737 1/3 IP and is going around 170th overall. The pitcher universe is deep. Gave you a sleeper post for Chris Bassitt in previous years, so won’t go back to that well, and he’s older with seemingly a lack of upside. That’s why Jeffrey Springs is the subject here. He has only 264 2/3 IP in his career, and a 3.57 ERA as he called shotgun. He’s 30, but the lack of innings feels like an opportunity for upside still. Last year, Springs had a 9.6 K/9 and 2.1 BB/9. Separation of 7+ between the two and another box checked. Top 20 for exit velocity, and that’s three boxes, it was time to go over Jeffrey Springs. So, what can we expect from Jeffrey Springs for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Justin Steele, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

January 9, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Featured | 52 Comments

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First off, shoutout to frequent commenter, Fausto, who commented about David Peterson and his sleeper-iness last September, and I screenshot it back then, and it’s been sitting on my desktop since then. Every couple weeks Cougs would say to me something like, “Did you order Daniel Vogelbach-in-a-bikini coasters? And if so, can you locate the […]

Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Itch

Detroit Tigers Top 10 Prospects for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

January 8, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 22 Comments

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Hey all you cool cats and kittens. The groove has been missing from Motown for a few refrains now. Stalking the top of each draft the past few seasons hasn’t helped the big league Tigers yet, but hope remains, as ever, in the long grasses of their minor league system. 

 

1. OF Kerry Carpenter | 25 | MLB | 2022

I’ve written a lot about Carpenter in this space. The Tigers have been desperate to develop some bats for as long as I can remember, and so far Kerry Carpenter looks like their biggest developmental win. A 19th round pick in 2019, Carpenter made a leap in pitch selection, particularly in his transition from Double-A (6.1% BB) to Triple-A (12.3 % BB). His strikeout rate evaporated at the same time, from 27.5 percent to 12.3 percent and the result was a dominant run in Triple-A (.331/.420/.644) and a 31-game MLB debut that netted six home runs and a 126 wRC+. If I catch any Tiger by the tail for redraft leagues this year, it’ll probably be Carpenter.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Hunter Greene, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

January 5, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Featured | 34 Comments

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Sitting dead red (pardon the pun), and you can’t hit Hunter Greene. Allow me to demonstrate:

That’s just silly. Tell the hitter the ball is going to be right down the pipe, and it’s a JCVD to the windpipe. His fastball velocity averaged 99 MPH. To be a fly on the wall of the hospital room where Babe Ruth laid for the last time when a time traveler walked in to tell him, “A pitcher will one day average 99 MPH,” and then Babe closed his eyes for the last time, not wanting any part of that. Slightly off topic for a brief moment: It’s why it’s so funny when people try to compare different eras in baseball. Can you imagine Babe Ruth facing a 99-MPH hurler every time out? Putting aside his offseason regiment was chugging sodas with Fatty Arbuckle. 99 miles per hour on average?! That was best in the majors for a starter with at least 120 innings and the top ten are all guys you want: Strider, Sandy, Gerrit, Shohei, Castillo, Cease, McClanahanananananananan, Burnes, and Woodruff, in that order, with Woodruff at 96.2 MPH on average. Only two guys above 98 MPH are Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene. Velocity isn’t everything, naturally. Or unnaturally if you’re one of these guys’ shoulders. Nathan Eovaldi and his hot butter MPH and biscuit of garbage ERA are more the exception than the rule. The top 30 for fastball velocity are roughly 95% fantastic with the occasional Mitch Keller. So, what can we expect from Hunter Greene for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Please, blog, may I have some more?
The Itch

Chicago White Sox Top 10 Prospects for 2023 Fantasy Baseball

January 4, 2023 | 2023 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Featured | 25 Comments

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The south side features an underrated system for fantasy purposes with plenty of openings on the big league side for the intrepid young hitters. 

 

1. OF Oscar Colas | 24 | AAA | 2023

I suspect you’ll see Colson Montgomery in the one spot everywhere else, and that’s cool if you’re not in any rush to collect stats from your prospects. I’m open to the case that Montgomery is the buzzier prospect stock at the moment, but Colas has dominated every step of the way and finds himself on the escalator this winter, by which I mean he could start the season hot and cruise right up the lists. Montgomery could climb quickly as well, but he’ll be doing so in Double-A, which won’t help us win in 2023 unless we can flip him for a redraft asset. How long will it take the dynasty world to notice if Montgomery comes roaring out the gate? Not long, probably, but Colas could open a sell-high window early in spring training with just a few good games. And even then, with offers raining down on you after Colas hits his second spring home run, you might struggle to move the 6’1” 209 lb left-handed bat with a chance to make the opening day lineup. He hit 23 home runs in 127 games across three levels last year, batting above .300 at every stop. Chicago has been tough on hitters the past few seasons, but Colas has enough thump to threaten 20-plus bombs if he gets the gig early. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Grey

Edward Olivares, 2023 Fantasy Baseball Sleeper

January 3, 2023 | Fantasy Baseball Sleepers, Featured | 34 Comments

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I cackled just writing the title. Hey, going for Edward Olivares is that Dayton Moore was fired…

…the rest can fall into place, right? A sneak peek behind the Wizard’s curtain. I was looking for a late outfielder to write a sleeper post on, and there were, like, fifteen guys in the span of 20 average draft picks that interested me. Around Edward Olivares was also Jose Siri — Siri, what is a fantasy baseball sleeper? Forget it, I’ll ask Alexa; Bubba Thompson — I like him a lot, but playing time?; Dylan Carlson and Jorge Soler — bounce backs?; Tommy Pham — way undervalued, but how many fantasy football-smacking-Joc jokes can I make? Well, a lot, but I didn’t feel like it; Luis Garcia, the Rocky III version; Luke Voit — surprising strong peripherals, but kinda yawnstipating, and him and Pham need someone to sign them; Austin Meadows, Jake Fraley, Justin Turner–Seriously, there’s so many interesting names around Edward Olivares, but there’s just not enough time for a sleeper post for all of them, but I will cover them all in rankings. Last year, Edward Olivares went 4/2/.286 in 161 ABs. In his major league career, he has 358 ABs and has hit 12 homers and stolen four bags. *making the Larry David meh face* Hmm, maybe there was a reason Dayton Moore promoted and sent down Olivares once a week as a ritual. Like 9 1/2 Weeks, only instead of rubbing strawberries on Dayton Moore’s lips, he had his assistant rub news clippings of Olivares being sent down. Dated reference? Yes, but also I like the idea of Dayton Moore getting a Google alert and reading about himself in a 9 1/2 Weeks setting, so I will allow it. So, what can we expect from Edward Olivares for 2023 fantasy baseball and what makes him a sleeper?

Psyche! Before we get into the Edward Olivares sleeper post, just wanted to announce that I’ve begun to roll out my 2023 fantasy baseball rankings on our Patreon. Lucky you (if you pay the $10/month). Also, Rudy’s begun to roll out his 2023 fantasy baseball projections. It’s version 1.0 and there’s usually about 4500 versions but just wanted to let you know. Anyway II, the Edward Olivares sleeper:

Please, blog, may I have some more?