Last Friday I presented my pitcher projections for the second half of the season. In said projections I concluded by predicting that Chris Sale would be the American League Cy Young Award winner. I put his final line at 227 IP, 23 W, 6 L, 231 K, 47 BBI, 186 HA, 82 ER. Sale certainly came out of the second half gates as if he had read my post. There was a rumor going around that both Sale and Dylan Bundy frequent Razzball. I have no proof, but it sounds logical to me. Speaking of Bundy, while it might not have been very impressive, he made his first Major League start this past Sunday. Despite only lasting 3.1 innings, there are still some positive takeaways. I’m not sure what his exact role in the Orioles’ rotation is going to be, but it seems he’s going to be groomed into becoming a full-time starter. It just might not be this year. I’d also like to point out that I expressed my interest in Bundy this season back in April. On April 13th I said I’d rather stash Dylan Bundy than own Byron Buxton. Then, one week later, I elaborated on my thoughts on Bundy. Those in leagues that allow SP in RP, should take an extra look at Dylan should he be available in your league.
But enough about Bundy and back to Chris Sale. I have a small problem with being easily distracted. SQUIRREL!!! In his first start since the All-Star Break he pitched 8 innings while giving up just 1 hit, 0 earned runs and struck out six. Unfortunately for his owners, David Robertson‘s meltdown left Sale with a no decision in his quest for his 15th win this year, and more importantly, the road proving my predictions right. At 100 pitchers Robin Ventura should have left him in the game. He must still be dealing with the effects of being punched in the head by Nolan Ryan.
At this point in the fantasy season many teams are gearing up for a playoff run, where they will chase that elusive fantasy championship. I, on the other hand, am on the opposite end of the spectrum. While I am not mathematically eliminated, the math is not favorable. I’m in a head-to-head points league where we play two teams each week. If I win all my games over the remaining seven weeks I will finish with 21 wins. Four teams make the playoffs and the fourth and fifth place teams currently have 17 wins. Any math geeks out there care to calculate the odds of me winning my final 14 games while the 4th and 5th place teams fail to win just four? It’s over Johnny.
While I am certainly disappointed, I can’t really beat myself up over it. Out of ten teams I have the fifth most points. Out of ten teams I have the most points against. I’m not going to revisit how much I hate this aspect of head-to-head points leagues, but if you’re interested, read this.
So what does one do when their fantasy season is practically over and it’s only halfway through July? Well that depends on your league rules. More specifically your trading rules. I personally have begun selling off all of my non-keeper valuable assets for draft picks in next year’s draft. This is a lot more difficult to do in leagues that don’t allow draft pick trades or those with auctions. In the 16 year existence of my league I have only been in this situation one other time. That was five years ago. During that time I traded away enough pieces to get an extra 1st, 2nd and 3rd round pick in the coming year’s draft. Some league mates did not like that I was able to do that. As a result a new rule was erected limiting draft pick trades to two per team. I voted against the rule, but lost.
For every rule there is a best way to navigate said rule. What this rule means to me is that I should only accept a draft pick trade in which I am able to get back a first round pick. Unless, of course, I am just unable to do so. But a simple example of a trade that was offered to me that was fair, but I could not accept was when one team offered me an 8th round pick for Jung Ho Kang. Not a bad offer, but there was no way I was wasting one of my two draft pick trades on a deal that earned me an extra 8th round pick. I should also mention that we keep five players, so the first round is really the sixth round.
The key to getting teams to trade away their early draft picks is to target teams that have a legitimate shot at the playoffs. Then you have to find the holes in their lineup and hope you have the players to plug those holes. Otherwise you’ll have to give up a keeper and that defeats the purpose. Just throwing a couple above average players at a team in positions of strength won’t do you any good. One team was trying to trade Nelson Cruz and Wil Myers to a team that already had a solid outfield. While these players would have been slight upgrades, they were not enough of an upgrade to give away a 1st or 2nd round pick. Why trade away a good draft pick for Francisco Lindor when you already have Xander Bogaerts at SS? After floating a few offers out to teams here are the two trades I was able to make.
Robinson Cano, Wilson Ramos and Jose Bautista for 1st round pick and Joe Panik
Tanner Roark, Chris Archer and David Robertson for 1st round pick and Dylan Bundy
Here are some of my failed attempts.
Aaron Nola, Joey Votto and Freddie Freeman for a 1st round pick
Chris Archer, Michael Wacha and David Robertson for a 1st round pick
Now that I’ve exhausted my draft pick trades, it’s time to start trying to move pieces to upgrade my keepers. That’s where I trade one of the players I plan to keep plus at least one other good player that I do not plan to keep in return for a better keeper than the one I am trading away. For example, I just made these offers.
Zach Greinke, Aaron Nola and Freddie Freeman for Jose Fernandez
Zach Greinke, Joey Votto and Jose Ramirez for Manny Machado
These types of trades are rarely accepted, but it never hurts to make the offer. You never know what can happen. I sucks to be in the position where a fire sale is your best play, but considering I won the championship last season, I can hardly complain. I’ll take a last place finish following a first place one every time. It also doesn’t help that my keepers coming into this season included Gerrit Cole, Zach Greinke and Felix Hernandez. I can safely say that none of them have produced at the keeper level I was expecting. Especially in a league in which the scoring system heavily favors starting pitchers. I guess there’s always next year, right. And next year I will have three picks in the first round.
Any of you in fire sale mode? Tell me about your trades…
