The Reds are calling up their sensational left-hander, Andrew Abbott, and I’m going to have a tough time not playing him tonight.
Abbott is the minor league strikeout leader. He faces MLB’s worst offense against lefties in the Brewers. Somehow he’s just $4,000 on DraftKings.
Now that we’ve ticked the first box, let’s see where else we can go on tonight’s 7-game slate that locks at 6:40 p.m. ET.
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The Core (Players who will appear in most of my lineups):
Aaron Nola, P: ($10,200) – Nola has been kind of gross this year, but he’s probably the only pitcher on the slate with 35 point upside. Facing the Tigers, he just might get there tonight.
Luken Baker, 1B: ($2,000) – The Cardinals are calling up Baker to make his debut today. He’s a patient, power hitting type who carries a 1.075 OPS in triple-A this season. Martin Perez hasn’t been good this year, with his high 5.20 xFIP and low 16% K rate. You can go to Paul Goldschmidt here, but if you need the savings, Luken this kid’s way.
Nolan Arenado, 3B ($5,400) – Arenado hasn’t been having his best season, but he’s still mashing lefties to the tune of a .375 ISO. On a weak third base slate, he’s a gift.
Marcus Semien, 2B ($6,000) – Semien is riding a 23-game hitting streak, and he’s a guy we want to ride while he’s hot.
Corey Seager, SS ($5,900) – Since his return from the IL, Seager has been on fire. Adam Wainright has not been good this season and has been particularly vulnerable to left-handed hitters. On a slate with few good options for the middle infield, I like a Rangers mini-stack.
Bryce Harper, OF: ($5,700) and Kyle Schwarber, OF: ($4,6000) – Phillies stacks will be popular tonight, but I’m hoping the field is reluctant to use two outfield spots in lefty-lefty matchups.
Jake Fraley, OF: ($4,800) – Julio Teheran has managed two good starts with the help of a very low (12%) strikeout rate and some batted ball luck. Historically, he’s a guy who has struggled with left-handed power, so give me Fraley in the Smallpark.
The Fades (Highly-owned players I will mostly avoid):
Blake Snell, P: ($9,700) – He’s put together a few good outings and should be one of the most popular pitchers tonight. Snell is not a guy I like to play into ownership. He still has trouble going deep into games, which limits his upside, and his opponent tonight, the Cubs, is rather tough against lefties.
The Pivots (low-owned plays I’ll take a chance on):
Braxton Garrett, P: ($8,300) – He’s got all of his pitches working right now and has hit 22 or more DraftKings points in three of his last four starts.
Mike Mayers, P: ($6,600) – The only way I won’t be locking Abbott into my lineups tonight will be if he gets steamed to the point where he’s over 60% owned. I don’t think he’ll get quite that high, but if he does I’ll be looking to Mayers as a pivot. He’ll be the bulk reliever tonight for the Royals, and he’s been terrific, bringing a 1.35 ERA into the contest.
Yordan Alvarez, OF ($6,100) – If the Jays had anyone to bring up, Alek Manoah might be working his mechanical issues out in the minors right now. I’m hoping the Astros’ stack breaks the slate at low ownership tonight.
Willson Contreras, C: ($4,700) – If you decide to fade Abbott, consider taking a piece against him for leverage. Over the last two seasons, Contreras has a big .242 ISO and .411 wOBA vs. left-handed pitching.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
No weather concerns today. You’ll find good hitting conditions in Pittsburgh and Cincinnati.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Right now the Brewers/Reds game is a pick’em. I’ve talked about how much more I like the Reds’ side, so I’ll take them on the moneyline.
It’s a big total at 10.5, but I like the Astros/Blue Jays game to go over. I think both teams can do damage to the opposing starter and get into the weaker halves of the bullpens.
