When I started writing for this site three years ago (continually dodging the pink slip from the Grey Reaper), ranks were my favorite thing. I did them every week! That was extra, though. Now it’s pre-season, mid-season, and………….
End-ish of season.
Ranks are kinda boring without some sort of context attached to them. So, this will be first base ranks by me for next season, with a brief explanation of how they are valued on the player rater and what that means. Does that make sense? Of course not. Nobody reads the intro anyway. So here they are, next year’s first base rankings:
Tier 1: Rounds 1-2 picks
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.: Until he stops showing top 10% rankings in literally every Statcast category, he shall be the number one ranked guy. I do wish we could play him in an XStats league, though. His predicted slash line is .320/.410/.544. There’s a perennial XStats MVP! With the league batting average median at .249, Vlad’s .289 is quite helpful. Runs and RBI often follow guys who have such a valuable bat skill. I do realize that his home runs are not elite; I don’t care. He’s good enough! It’s called a well rounded profile, people! He’s the perfect bat to start off with, giving great production in 4 of the 5 main stat categories in roto. And in the MVP level seasons that will be coming, he’ll carry.
2. Nick Kurtz: What a meteoric rise, from prospect to the number 2 rated first baseman in fantasy. Many pundits will put him first, and it doesn’t take much to see why. A 6-5, 240 pound behemoth with power who hits .303 to this point is tantalizing. I completely agree. He is ranked second, and the same tier as Vlad. The power is legitimate, and pairing him in the second round with some speed from the first is a great play. Just beware, he may settle in as a lower average power guy. That pesky 30% K rate and .263 XBA seem to hint at this being his ceiling rather than a baseline. But take him, I’m nitpicking here, he’s great and I love him.
Tier 2: The Old Reliables
All values in this article are from the Razzball player rater auction values.
3. Freddie Freeman: Freeman has most of his value from his elite batting average. You won’t get power from Freeman as he nears his late 30s. With this, runs and ribbies will be plentiful as long as the Dodgers are good. Since they always are, Freeman is as safe as they come as your third bat.
4. Pete Alonso: This guy will continue to be your power and RBI guy. He has 19.8 dollars in imaginary Razzball value from these two categories combined. His total is 26.2; you can see where the value lies in Pete. Valuable, but you’ll have to pad the average somewhere. There’s so much random power out there these days, I prefer Freeman to Pete for the ease of roster construction.
5. Bryce Harper: Wrote about this last week, Harper is no longer a safe top 15 pick. He does, however, offer value in every category and is a great stabilizer. That seems like a cool nickname: The Great Stabilizer. Harper offers positive value in every category, which not many 1B do. So based on that, you will get stats in every category. That seems helpful in category leagues, but hey, what do I know. It’s not like I’m in first in my TGFBI league still.
6. Cody Bellinger: Belly has been even more of a stabilizer than Harper, with values above 2 in every category and over 4.8 in all but SB. See, here’s the thing. I don’t trust him as much as Bryce! Bellinger has one of those swings that ebbs and flows, year to year. He also has an opt out this offseason.
If he for some reason leaves the perfect park for his skill set, I’ll leave you with these numbers in road games: .256/.314/.444, 9 HR compared to 17 at home, 31 RBI, 27 R. So if he leaves New York, the ranking goes all the way down to Tier 4. I’m assuming they work this out, though, so we aren’t stuck with an 18 HR, 62 RBI, 54 Run guy or something like that. Which is roughly his pace in away ballparks in case the math here was unclear.
TIER 3: Solid guys, indeed!
I see you guys, your attention’s flagging. Maybe a bit shorter, right?
7. Vinnie Pasquantino: He’s gonna sneak up and have a 30 HR 100 RBI season. He’s not going to help as much in OPB leagues (.321), but really, that’s some solid, consistent value for Vinny. In the middle rounds, consistency is quite helpful, especially if you took some fliers early. This fits the bill. Now, if you went safer in the early rounds and want a guy who could carry you in power, look at number 8.
8. Tyler Soderstrom: He’s an all around contributor with positive value everywhere, including his seven steals. Nothing in his underlying metrics screams fluke either. He did have 9 dingers the first month of the season and only 14 since. Now, those do count in season stats, and you can’t delete them. Just keep that in mind, he could be a high teens bat for home runs. 28 doubles do point to more power coming. So he’s your upside guy, and Vinny is the safe guy in the area you drafted Christian Walker last season.
9. Rafael Devers: I had to put him here. I think he’ll go in the top 4 rounds, which is fine with me. I’ll let someone else take him and rank him low enough that I won’t get him anywhere. Attitude questions, age, and declining numbers are not a good trio.
10. Josh Naylor: The steals category buoy him, and as stated before, it’s really unexpected to see a guy built like myself get steals. He’s tentatively ranked here, all depends where he lands. If he goes to Boston, then tally ho! If it’s Seattle, drop him down.
TIER 4: SOME HOLES HERE BUT USABLE
11: Willson Contreras: The erstwhile catcher and guy who hit his own coach with a bat is now going to be 1B only. He has been the 11th ranked first baseman, but you shoulda been using him at catcher, where he’s fifth at the position. My caution with Conterars is that his value was driven by RBI more than any other stat. The Cardinals are slipping, and the opportunities for RBI will dry up next year. I’m telling Willson thanks for the catcher season, then probably not taking him.
12. Spencer Torkelson: Dude has a negative batting average value, but his HR value is great. He has improved his K rate; can that continue? The biggest hole, though, is against right handed pitching. He’s only slashing .218/.309/.424 against the strong side, with .278/.378/.569 against lefties. If he can get those numbers up a bit, you have a top 10 bat at first, maybe even top five. But the hole is the righties. Which the majority of pitchers are, and you know teams will keep throwing these guys at him.
13, 14
Jonathan Aranda and Michael Busch: Opposites of Tork, these guys struggle against lefties. Busch, more so, he’s so bad on that side, the Cubs signed two 40 year olds to hit for him in that case. Aranda was at least somewhat productive and not sitting. Busch, though, is unplayable in those situations. So keep that in mind when looking at the final numbers.
15: Alec Burleson
16: Ben Rice
TIER 5: CATEGORY BOOSTERS
17. Luis Arraez: AVG only, and slowing down with .285 on the year. He could bounce back, was at .318 just last year, and will be only 29.
18: Alec Bohm: AVG mainly, he sits solidly at .277 for his career. He busted that this year, going all the way up to .278. Solid contributor late in drafts.
19: Kyle Manzardo: HR help, also helps during his crazy hot streaks.
20: Jake Burger: HR if healthy, he hasn’t been this year. Don’t forget your Burger, though, and get burnt.
That’s it, here’s your 1B cheat sheet for next season! Hope you enjoyed this monstrous read, and lemme know where I’m wrong! If I can dodge Grey and his pink slip for one more offseason, we can all hold me accountable here.
Man I’ve got work to do with Alec being my best 1B, kicking myself for missing the Kurtz breakout in a dynasty league. Such is life.
Random question but are you dropping Nestor Cortes? He looks Terribnle
Had no idea Matt Olson died. RIP.
Nice catch. I had him written, then lowered him, then forgot to include him again!
I’d have him in the tier with Vinny P. probably at about 9. Don’t like the power slippage and he’s never been a batting average guy. 2022 was the outlier.
That’s what I woulda said. I know it’s award winning stuff.
I’d have him 10, between Devers and Naylor. And probably Devers should be 7 or so.