What can I say? It's been a while since I dished out the bold. The beautiful? Full time job baby. Now, whether it's obvious or not, this season's iteration of "Bold Predictions" will be quite different. First, there won't be any predictions based on that stupid next door virus everyone hates. I can't tell ya how easy my job would be if my first bold prediction would be that the season is completed with zero issues from COVID. Bold to me! (And already void, thanks Juan Soto!) But still, who wants to be the negative Nancy? I don't even look like a Nancy. So there will be caveats, such as, we're just going to assume that the entire season is played with minimal issues related to Won't-you-not-be-my-neighbor-Corona. Now, also add in the fact that these are bold predictions... every season, someone points out how crazy these things are. My response? MISSION ACCOMPLISHED. (The non-Bush version.) But now that we have just 60 games on the docket, everything's awkward. A normal 160-180 inning season? Yeah, we're talking like 40-60 now. AB's? Eesh, 20 HR's is Bonds like. So quite honestly, I have no idea what is considered bold, so we'll travel this journey together, with masks and social distancing, and discover what the 10 Bold Predictions during COVID actually looks like...
Monthly Archives: July 2020
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During the summer of 2019, Yoenis Cespedes was so taken with the song Old Town Road that he wanted to film his own video remix with a wild boar and Sam Elliott. Not knowing where to begin, Yoenis called Sammy Sosa to advise on costumes because of Sammy's flair for western wear and Yoenis found the music video director in an aisle at Sam's Club and thought he had a Sam-only clause. Sammy Sosa was blunt with Yoenis, "You're not a vaquero, are you? Then get off that tartan bandana and put on a fringe jacket!" Yoenis feared he looked like Dolly Parton in Rhinestone Cowboy and Sam Elliott was on the phone with his agent about this gig, when it all went wrong. Cespedes fractured his ankle, going from 100 legs to 103-ish, and his 2019 was over. Cut to 18 months later (it only feels like 18 years), and Yoenis is back, and healthy. During the break, I gave you a Yoenis Cespedes sleeper, and I'm doing what they call, in rodeo parlance, filling a barrel with two clowns. Every time Yoenis has been healthy, he has been worth owning. Will he stay healthy? Who cares! In 60 games, Yoenis has as much a chance at being the NL MVP as Pete Alonso. Yes, it hurt me to say that. Obviously, it didn't hurt as much as trying to pull off an Old Town Road remix at Ranchero de Yoenis. Anyway, here's some more players to Buy or Sell this week in fantasy baseball:
Back during the shutdown, I wrote about trends in players being top hitters in April (the first month of the season). Surprise! Mike Trout is on that list. One of the other names on that list is Matt Chapman. Then in Part 2, I discovered certain players had patterns. Chapman has shown a pattern of hitting for two years now. Not only is he a top performer at the start of the season, but its definitely a HOT start as he cools off after. He is a streaky hitter (to a degree), but a streaky hitter that comes out of gate hot.
FanDuel: Opening Day 2.0… Again!
July 24, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, DFS, Fanduel |by: TroyKlauder
Dubbed "Opening Day 2.0," yesterday was quite weird. We had two star players scratched just hours before their games and baseball played in front of cardboard cutout fans with pretend crowd noise. Not to mention a five-and-a-third inning rain shortened affair where both starters logged complete games. Fortunately, we've got 28 teams in action on FanDuel Friday, so it's time for Opening Day 2.0... again! Maybe this time around will be a bit less wonky.
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Our long national nightmare is over (except for the actual long national nightmare that isn't over -- sigh, to be a person with parenthetical blindness and not have to read this caveat)! We did it, boys and five girl readers. We f*cking did it! Not us, per se. We didn't do shizz, except draft some baseball players for fantasy. But, ya know what, that's enough for me! See, with lowered goals and expectations, you're never disappointed. It's a zen thing; you wouldn't understand. It was a mere nine months ago when we started talking about sleepers and rankings and...How old am I now?
Well, whatever, baseball is back and that's all that matter. Singing like an absolute loon, "Baseball's back and I want to get married -- hey nah, hey nah -- baseball's back!" And, now in my mind, I'm married to Giancarlo Stanton. Ask yourself why you didn't send us a wedding gift. Selfish much? Of course, Opening Day couldn't have happened in any other way in 2020. It had to be met with cold-ass reality, which why Juan Soto tested positive for Covid. It sucks, Mr. Obvious said, but it's also a reminder of what this year will be. It's going to be waiver wire pickups, the Streamonator, the Hittertron and playing of matchups. If you're curious and want to torture yourself, Juan Soto fell to 179th overall in the final 2020 preseason rankings. Stepping in to replace Juan Soto will be Andrew Stevenson, the James Spader of replacements. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:When 2020 started vs. Now pic.twitter.com/MQRevUcPbV
— Razzball (@Razzball) July 21, 2020
One Man’s Trash: Choo Still Chugging Along
July 23, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, One Man's Trash | 4 Commentsby: Son
I still can't believe it took us so long to figure out The Seoul Train nickname for Shin Soo Choo. No wonder we don't get paid the big bucks. I think it was Rudy who finally figured it out. So freaking good. Anyways, that's another reason why you should subscribe to the award-winning (courtesy of The Son Awards) tools and projections. Best in the biz. Back to.....aaah Choo. Gesundheit. Jay "Who Is Never" Wrong wrote up a good piece on Choo back in March, which you can find HERE. Read it. Since I wrote up Shogo Akiyama earlier this week, I wanted to keep the asian flavor going, so let's get the spiciness flowing.
Over the past three years, Choo has been a model of consistency. He's played around 150 games each season, accrued around 650 plate appearances, clubbed 20 home runs, scored 90-ish runs, driven in 60 RBI, and stolen around 10 bases each season (only 6 in 2018). The walk rate has been around 12%, strikeout rate in the low-20% range, with a slash of .260/.370/.440. Interestingly, the SLG has increased in each of the past three seasons. All that at the ripe ages of 36, 37, and 38 years old. Chugga chugga Choo Choooooooo!!!!
The Case for Adrian Houser to be 2020’s MVFP
July 23, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Sleepers | 28 Commentsby: Hobbs
If you're reading this, it's Thursday -- Opening Day 2020. Drafts are pretty much done with and, if you still have one yet to go, holy shit, you're giving me anxiety just thinking about it. I wrapped up my final NFBC draft this past Monday and, as I've become accustomed to since the onset of my 2020 draft season back in early March, I got yet another share of Adrian Houser. Now, if you read our 2020 Razzball Fantasy Baseball Staff Picks, you know I already made some bold predictions about Houser this season. Not only did I pick Houser to become the Most Valuable Fantasy Pitcher (MVFP), but I also tabbed him to win the NL Cy Young. Truthfully, I probably should have stopped at MVFP, because that alone would have demonstrated the statement I'm trying to make about Houser while increasing my chances of being correct. But I'm not here to toot my own horn and act like I know everything about fantasy baseball -- I'm here to inform our readers and, if just one lucky soul added Houser as a result of my boldness, I believe I've succeeded in my mission.
Hello fellow DFSers and WELCOME to (Re)Opening Day 2020! Wooo! We made it! I have a sneaky suspicion that DFS usage will be up across the board this season as it seems like the ideal way to handle a season with so many question marks. To celebrate the occasion, FanDuel is kicking things off by giving everyone with an existing account ten free dollars. $10...FREE! How great is that!? Go enjoy some free DFS and try to turn that $10 in something more! Drafting season long teams in July seemed like just going through the motions. You had no idea if the player you drafted was even going to be around in two weeks, was even in the country yet, had COVID, had symptoms or just tweaked their back. Mike Trout could miss some weeks when his baby is born, or could be done for the season at that point. Who knows!? What we do know is we can make these decisions daily based on who is actually at the park. Paying attention to lineups this season will be vital as a player could show up with a fever and not be allowed to play, so follow those beat writers closely and check lineups often. Along with that, we have a DH in the NL now, which opens up more hitting options for us and could allow NL pitchers to go deeper into games. Speaking of pitchers, I feel as though I’ll be paying up for pitchers more this season than in year’s past. I have a feeling there will be more “openers” and bullpen games this year with only 60 games, making those starters who can go 7+ even more valuable. I won’t be messing with many cheap starters this year unless the match-up is choice. I just don’t think there will be many long leashes. It could be the year of the long reliever. With only two games on the Opening Day slate, picks will be in short supply so I thought I’d muse a bit on the upcoming season and it’s strategy.
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Marcus’s Calf Goes Off Like A Stroman Candle
July 23, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 378 Commentsby: Grey
Marcus Stroman went from calf tightness to a tear. That's what the cow said! Huh? Sorry, I'm a little freakin' delirious because I own Stroman in not one, not two--I can't even count how many leagues I own him in because I don't have enough fingers and toes, and this is a PG show and we can't count with anything else, you absolute pervs! Hey, serious question, has anything ever good happened to the Mets? Not to get all metaphysical rolling magnets around my shakras, but The Curse of The Bambino became The Curse of 1986. I won't hear different. Bill Buckner allie-kazoo'd some voodoo on Mookie Wilson and the Mets have never been the same. Alas, I would drop Stroman in every league, aside from maybe NL-Only, but even there it's pretty meh. He's week-to-week, so maybe he returns by the end of August. What are you holding that for? The S's and G's train left the station a long time ago. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Rookie Leaderboards: Home Runs, Stolen Bases, and Saves
July 22, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 13 Commentsby: The Itch
In a blurry baseball universe, one thing that’s clear about 2020 is the numbers will look funky.
I will miss the number 30, especially.
We had some good times.
And sometimes we’d double up 30/30 . . . those were the days . . .
I suppose we could rally around 30 Runs or RBI?
Nah that’s ridiculous, and only Kyle Lewis or apex Giancarlo could hit 30 home runs in 60 games, so we should probably say our goodbyes to those curvy round benchmarks. Funky numbers only from here on out! 11? Come on down! 17? Wow that’s a lot of whatevers in 2020!!
As part of this ongoing effort to make my funk the P funk, I’m building rookie leaderboards with concrete Miss Cleo numbers. Projections, if you’re nasty.
Here’s a funky song to play while you imagine the future.
Charting the Future: Multi-Position Premium
July 22, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 3 Commentsby: TheTinDoor
The great Jeff Zimmerman (Fangraphs, The Process, etc.) recently revisited a topic that's always ripe for debate: what kind of extra value does a multi-position player get, compared to those who only play one position? We can all agree that multi-position is better than single; quantifying that value, however, proves more difficult. A few years ago, Rudy assessed this briefly in his seminal piece, "Debunking Positional Scarcity", and recommends adding a $1 for multi-position players.
Jeff's article took a different approach: instead of measuring what a player's value should be, he attempted to measure the actual impact in terms of draft cost. In other words, what premium does the market place on these players? Read the full piece; Jeff estimates ~$3.20 bump on average.
While I like the goal (understanding market premiums), Jeff's methodology (comparing the draft cost of two similarly-projected players) was limited in scope. So I've set out to do additional analysis with the same goal: measuring the market premium of multi-position players.
Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Cardinals Baseball with Chelsea Ladd
July 22, 2020 | All Podcasts |by: Brent
Chelsea Ladd (@chelseabrooke), from Dugout Dish joins the show to breakdown the St. Louis Cardinals squad. We find out how her baseball career got started and where she wants her brand to grow. We breakdown the old, but reliable lineup that includes Paul Goldschmidt, Yadier Molina and Matt Carpenter. What kind of impact they can have in a 60 game season? We dive into the rotation led by Jack Flaherty. Will Carlos Martinez be in the starting rotation or a bullpen piece moving forward? We discuss these topics and get to know Chelsea more with our rapid fire questions!
