The calendar has flipped to June and the Razzball Commenter Leagues are in full swing. This is also the time of year where I like to take a look at which RCL teams are killing us in win-rate and which teams have just had some crap luck in the win column. Now, Rudy will tell you that Wins are actually predictable as shown by his Ombotsman. While the data and the bots may tell you this, as a human, it still seems like they are luck-based, do they not? Today we’re going to take a look at “win luck”. There’s no doubt it takes some luck to win a fantasy baseball league. Injury luck is probably the biggest factor in winning a league. As good a manager as we think we are, if your number one pick goes down for the year, you’re going to be at a disadvantage. That’s just common sense. “Win luck” is another area that is seemingly out of our control. Let’s face it, wins are brutal. I’m a big proponent of the mantra, “Make your own luck” and I certainly think that can be applied to “win luck”. “Win luck” is a term often tossed around to describe a team that is raking in the wins and/or a team that can’t seem to buy a win. Can you make your own luck in regards to wins? Of course you can. You can stream those valuable middle relievers, especially the ones that frequently work multiple innings in the middle of games (Josh Hader perhaps). When a lead change occurs, these relievers are typically the benefactors. It’s no guarantee of course, but it can’t hurt your luck any. There are other ways to increase your win luck too. Let’s take a look at another big one as well as who is getting lucky and who got lucky this week in the week that was, week 9:
Monthly Archives: June 2019
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Fantasy owners of Noah Syndergaard ($9,000) certainly haven't been happy with his performance this season, as Thor has a 4.90 ERA entering tonight. While it's easy to be concerned with Syndergaard, his 24.5% K-rate is actually an increase from last year, and he's got an outstanding 2.99 Deserved Run Average. When you consider Syndergaard's elite stuff and his stellar track record, he becomes a clear buy low candidate. Now is the perfect time to invest as he faces off against the Giants, who are among the weakest lineups in the league with just a .290 wOBA versus righties.
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Hiura Outta Here And Not Shaw How Long
June 4, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 472 Commentsby: Grey
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The Brewers, as you likely heard, sent down Keston Hiura, which means the return of Travis Shaw, The Mayor of Ding-Dong City returns to Milkwaukee. *sees Travis Shaw carrying a box of Ding-Dong snack cakes* Oh! See, the whole time I thought that meant home runs. The nickname makes more sense now, and would've been good to know in the preseason. Let me hear your jubilation for manipulation of service time. This, more than anything else, MLB really dominates. Hear that's why MLB is the most popular sport amongst knobsticks, blacklegs and union busters. I grabbed Shaw, because he hit .235 during his rehab in the PCL, which is like hitting with aluminum bats on the moon. No, his .235 average isn't the reason I picked him up, it's because I called him my preseason MVP and must wear him like a Scarlett Letter. No, not for that reason either. Because I had room and it was a deep league and I was like dubya tee eff. That really is the reason. Muy excitamente Señor Ding Dong! Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
Top 100 Hitters, Week 10: Riley 3:16
June 3, 2019 | 2019 Fantasy Baseball, Top 100 Hitters | 25 Commentsby: Kerry Klug
Last week here's what I said about Austin Riley: "A lot of people were calling for Austin Riley to make his rankings debut after hitting 5 HRs in his first 9 games, but I’m a little wary of rookies. Especially rookies who have a 15:2 K/BB ratio in their last 33 ABs. Pitchers are already starting to figure him out."
Well, another 3 games played since last week's rankings and he's crushed another 2 HRs -- however -- with another 3 Ks. In his 15 games played so far he's only not struck out in 2 games. Riley was a top 30 prospect heading into this season and so far the power potential (three 19+ HR seasons in the minors) is showing up, but so is the strikeout potential (8 consecutive minor league seasons with a 20+% K/rate.) Look, he's 22. He can crush, but he can also miss. I've put him at 99 for now -- one spot above Jose Ramirez -- and I'll be watching his progress.
Not your Grandfathers Top 100 Starting Pitchers…
These baseballs are juicy. Juicier than Grandpa-Donk's drawers the first time he visited Méjico. The juicy balls are causing some major volatility among our starting pitcher ranks this year. Few pitchers are exempt from the pitcherocalypse. Carlos Carrasco has suffered from severe constipation each of his last three outings, Tyler Bauer ate some questionable China-Buffet during May, and Patrick Corbin's Gatorade was spiked with laxatives in Cincinnati this past Friday. Even the mythical Yusei "The Kooch" Kikuchi has required adult diapers for his two recent explosions.
As the driver of the Kikuchi Razzwagon, I do apologize for crashing us into a Porta-John these past two weeks. There's been talk of The Kooch tipping his pitches; I like the narrative, it makes me feel a little better, but I'm not sure it's true. His command was flat out awful in those two blow ups, as hitters teed off on his hanging off speed pitches. It was also his third time facing the A's and second time facing the Angels; his funk may suffer from the law of diminishing fantasy returns once teams have gotten a good look.
Regardless, I can't blame anyone for moving on in 10-12 teamers, but I might give a reach around thru this buy-window in deeper leagues. Is that a buy-window or a guillotine? Just leave me alone random italicized voice! The Kooch is a crafty veteran who will benefit from some extra rest this week, a trip to the laundromat, and a heavy dose of prune juice. Don't be surprised if there's another dominant run in store as we get the Kikuchi Razzwagon back up running, and deodorized, this summer.
Prospect Podcast: Previewing The 2019 MLB Draft
June 3, 2019 | Prospect Podcast, Razzball Podcast |by: Geoff
We're back in the saddle and ready to get you up to speed on all the top names in Monday's MLB Draft. We talk Adely Rutschman, Andrew Vaughn, Bobby Witt Jr., J.J. Bleday, Riley Greene and others. We give you the lowdown on the real life value versus fantasy of each draftee, and tell you which player we feel can be the top fantasy asset from this draft. If you're a dynasty addict, then you don't want to miss this one. We end the show touching on a handful of pitchers that have our interest at the moment. It's the latest episode of the Razzball Prospect Podcast.
On a slate with no true ace taking the bump, the Phillies’ Aaron Nola is the guy to build your FanDuel lineups around. He has the second lowest SIERA on the slate, and the lowest xFIP. Nola has a 26.2% K%, and when he isn’t striking guys out, he is getting them to put the ball on the ground with a 47.2% groundball rate. With the Padres’ striking out in 27.1% of their at-bats against right-handed pitchers this season, Nola should continue to put up good numbers on Monday.
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Bruce To Get His Phil Of Greetings Near Asbury Park
June 3, 2019 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 568 Commentsby: Grey
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This weekend Jay Bruce was traded to the Phillies, because, as the front office in Philly put it, "We're sick of our autocorrect writing Bruce Harper. Now we write Bruce Harper and rather than backspacing we can just continue on and we've typed out two-thirds of our outfield. Next we have to try to get Michael Chavis, for our issue with the autocorrect Michael Franco." Guys and five girl readers, the Phillies have a plan! This move also kills two birds with one stone since now Bryce Harper will look so much better by comparison. Before, "Man, Bryce stinks." After, "Man, Bruce stinks." Autocorrect and by comparison -- done and done! This likely puts David Herrera's time all but done on the Phils and maybe baseball until the Astros take a chance on him. Yes, Odubel's real name is David, which is now what we, like the cops, call him. As for Bruce, this is a boost up for him, due to park and lineup. Now he's a 30-homer hitter with a .225 average and better runs and RBIs. Can I get a middle-case yay? Anyway, here's what else I saw this weekend in fantasy baseball:
How the hell is it Week 10 already? That's nuts. The season is flying by but we're having a blast with these articles.
I always try to be honest with these streamer pieces and this group of one-start streamers is pretty ugly. That's why we're going to go with five two-start streamers and only two one-start streamers for this week. That means it's going to be imperative to save your weekly moves for Sunday and try to think about the week ahead.
June is here, which means we are already a third of the way through the season. Time flies, I’ll tell you what. It seems like only yesterday this season was just getting started, now it’s full speed ahead and breaking home run records. It happens fast. Today we have an interesting seven game main slate on FanDuel. To differentiate our lineups we’ll focus on weather, and not just for postponement risk. Doing this allows us to get a better idea of the variance to expect from each game compared to neutral conditions. More after a word from our sponsor.
New to FanDuel? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well, be sure to read our content and subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays. Just remember to sign up through us before jumping into the fray. It’s how we know you care!
Potential Prospect Promotions: June
June 2, 2019 | 2019 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 32 Commentsby: Mike
Ah, June. Stats and standings have settled. At least a quarter of your league has given up. Hot dogs, school's out, the beach, and Father's Day. I myself was raised by a baboon troop in a controversial experiment at Stanford. Therefore, Father's Day is less about cookouts and ties and more about giving thanks that I didn't fall victim to competitive infanticide. Thanks, pops, for not letting that rival male kill me. Here's a gift card to Home Depot and some figs. *Eats gift card, hurls figs at my head* Damn you and your primatology Sapolsky! I want a real father! Anyhoo, here's a list of prospects I think will get called up in June. It's not exhaustive, but definitely exhausting.
