Drew Hutchison has been somewhat of a gas can this year....on the road. That's right, away from the hitter-comfy Rogers Centre, D-Hutch has been atrocious on the road. Consider these away stats:
.433 wOBA/,429 OBP/.592 SLG
4.66 xFIP/5.40 FIP/9.6 K-BB%
It's gross. And it's in line with his whole career numbers, though not as individually garish as the 2015 stats are.
So how is he at home, where he'll be taking the mound Wednesday. Surely in such an offensive haven as the Rogers Centre, Hutchison may pitch better than on the road, but it's negligible, right? Again, please consider:
.266 wOBA/.282 OBP/ .315 SLG
3.50 xFIP/2.80 FIP/ 15.9 K-BB%
Look around the league and you may find guys like this; SPs who are super at home, no matter the park they call home, but are stinkers on the road. Last season, Jorge De La Rosa had much better numbers at home than on the road, scary when you consider his home park is Coors Field.
So Hutchison is better at home than on the road and he's not just better, he's a good pitcher at home, raising his K-rate and lowering his other qualitative numbers at home. He's a big favorite (or at least Toronto is a big favorite) and should be able to dial up the 15 or so points he'd need at this rock bottom price of $5,400 to make value. Since most of the DFS players are going to remember all the shellackings that has been administered to Hutchison on the road, and the offensive numbers at the Centre, he's always very low owned. He's not a solid cash game (50/50, H2H) play, but he's on my tournament rosters. Come join me, if you dare!
Hutch likes to pitch at home,
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Of course, the title is referring to Nelson Muntz, but Jimmy Nelson sounds like a sitcom character too. Like the kid who is sweet to the parents, but is really the devil incarnate when no one is looking. Eddie Haskell, if your references go back that far. Fun fact! Chad Billingsley's grandma starred in that show. So, Jimmy Nelson had a solid game last night (6 2/3 IP, 0 ER, 4 baserunners, 4 Ks, and his ERA is down to 3.57), but that's not THAT good (caps for emphasis, not aesthetics). No, but his month of July ERA was 1.64. THAT is THAT good (not for emphasis, but now my autocorrect 'learned' THAT and wants THAT capped and I can't shut THAT off). Where is all of this coming from? Great question, clunky expositional transition! I'd say it's not where it's coming from, but where has it been? Ooh, you like that switcheroo. Nelson had a 1.46 ERA in the PCL with a 9.2 K/9 last year, throws 93 MPH and has worked hard to add a curve that he never had before this year. He feels like a guy that will click at some point, and be a top 20 starter. This year could be rocky still, but I think he's worth trying for a few starts to see if he's already turned that corner. I've been rocking three starters in my RCL league since April, but after streaming Nelson yesterday, I kinda want to hold him. While an Air Supply song plays softly in the background. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
July was a great month for the Razzball daily projections. Based on our ongoing testing vs actual stats (aka our
Ombostman), July 2015 was our most accurate month ever (tracking since May 2014) for:
- Projected starting pitcher values - both Roto $ and DFS Points
- ERA and WHIP
- Hitter Plate Appearances, At Bats, Hits, Runs (tied with June 2015), SLG %
July also represented our 2nd best performance for RBIs (with tops being last month) so I am feeling very positive about the enhancements chronicled in our
July update.
I guess our competitors have been wise not to take us up on our
MLB daily projections challenge. And it is only going to get harder based on our latest update....
While the July update might have been a little tough to grasp, the value of our August update should be
as simple as playing baseball according to Colin Cowherd. We have incorporated two critical pieces of information that are unique to 'same day' projections (and many of you have been clamoring for):
I’m still not entirely sure what the Braves were doing at the trade deadline, but
Alex Wood found himself in a much more favorable position. For his first start in Dodger Blue, he’ll be on the road facing a familiar foe in the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are, of course, always a team we like to target. Being in the bottom 5 of just about every offensive category will earn you that dubious honor. Alex Wood hasn’t exactly been peaches and cream this season, his Ks have disappeared and he’s been a bit WHIP-y. These are things I’m willing to deal with when the price is right and $7,400 is right. The best part of the match-up is Jerome Williams is on the other side of the mound so a win is all but guaranteed. The Dodgers should tee off on Williams, pushing him ever closer to the retirement he deserves and Wood should be able to cruise to the easy win. With any luck he gets to relax early and can let it fly vs. the woeful Phils. Wood is one of the biggest favorites on the night and makes a nice second tier pitcher to throw alongside the ace of your choosing.
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 15 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
It's almost time to think about next year. I don't mean that as an A's fan — that works too — but more in the terms of keeper and dynasty leagues. Keeping pitchers can be a very risky proposition given their tendency to get injured, making the call on a pitcher a tricky one. For now, lets take a look at current Chicago White Sox and soon-to-be free agent Jeff Samardzija. Other than a 4.35 ERA, there are multiple red flags on the Shark's pitching profile. A dip in swinging strike rate, K/9 and K-rate to go with a four year high in FIP and xFIP are all trends going in the wrong directions.
If you are thinking this is a call out to
the Skid Row hit from the 1989 self-titled classic
Skid Row, then you are correctamundo. I was in the 8th grade when this album came out and I didn't stop hearing it around me until the end of my freshman year. What gives with that? Maybe it's my age that makes it feel like popular music hung around much longer back then... Maybe it's because I grew up with too many pinche whettos who loved this kind of music... Maybe
it could of been worse... OR, maybe
even worse... For all the things I forget on a daily basis, why do these things stay stuck in my brain? Wait, this isn't bad music memory lane game, this is the RCL update. I'm glad to be back after my vacation and want to thank VinWins for covering last week. So lets jump in and get to where I talk about you, because who really wants to read about me?
Yesterday, Brandon Crawford went 2-for-5, 2 runs, 3 RBIs with two homers (17, 18). Crawford has a big flashing sign over his head that reads, "Career Year." Under said sign, he has a smaller sign that reads, "Or could this be a legitimate breakout?" Under that sign, there's yet another sign that reads, "There is no third sign." Then under that there's a smaller sign that reads, "Is that meta? Why even go through the trouble of hanging a third sign?" Then there's yet another smaller sign that reads...Ugh, I can't even read it, the font is too small. Let's stick with the signs we can read and that make sense, "Career year" and "Or could this be a legitimate breakout?" His previous career high was 10 homers in 153 games last year, and prior to that he had never homered ten times in any professional league. In four full years with the Giants, he only had 26 homers coming into this season. That was in over 1800 plate appearances. His previous career high in HR/FB% was 7%. This year it's over 17%. He's in the top 30 in the league for homers per fly balls. For the most part, a guy who hits a lot of homers per fly balls are, as you can imagine, not guys that had a previous high of ten homers in over 1800 plate appearances. They're guys like Just Dong, Braun, Te(i)x, Miggy, etc. etc. etc. The homers will disappear, but I wouldn't mind so much if Crawford was more than a .255 hitter. The most obvious comp is a young J.J. Hardy, if he was an actual comp, but he's not. Hardy hit 26 homers in his 2nd full season, Crawford never came close to this before, and I don't think he ever will again. So...*picks up megaphone* All right, guys, let's lose all the signs, except the first one. And get back to work! Ugh, teamsters. Anyway, here's what else I saw yesterday in fantasy baseball:
When Chuck conceived his son
[player]Daniel Norris[/player], he was working on set in Asia with Mrs. Norris still living in the US! Wait, did that make any sense... I'll leave the Chuck Norris jokes to the frat boy posters...
Traded to the Tigers along with another nice upside pitcher
[player]Matt Boyd[/player], Detroit got some pretty good arms for a rental and they wasted no time throwing Norris right into the rotation. And that's with 12 walks over his last 21 AAA innings! But throw caution to the wind, don't look both ways before crossing, run with the scissors and see what ya got, amiright?!
I had Norris all the way to 61
right before the season, getting a little too rookie nookie and slack-jawed at his Minor League stats. He wasn't awful through 5 appearances with the Blue Jays pitching his way to a 3.86 ERA, but he was a little too wild and his pitch counts got out of hand. So with the move to a better ballpark and to a team ready to unleash him right away, I decided to break down his debut with the Tigers to see how he looked:
Maybe the worst thing to happen on the trade deadline was something that didn't happen.
[player]Carter Capps[/player] to the Yankees would have been stupendous. I wanted to see the media and baseball people lose their mind over Capps' delivery and I think that's exactly what would have happened had he ended up there. But the thing that really has fantasy baseball managers in a tizzy is Jonathan Papelbon to the Washington Nationals. As their closer. (Yeah this old news, Grey and Smokey already beat me to Paplebon/Nationals puns. Whatever.) Drew Storen, Tyler Clippard, Joakim Soria and Jim Johnson are out of their closing job but jobs were created in the form of Ken Giles, Edward Mujica, Alex Wilson, and Arodys Vizcaino. Now some of us might still be scrambling for players that can get some saves. Well the Rockies have a closer spot up for grabs. It sure took long enough, but this is something I've been saying would happen since Axford took that role. Justin Miller, Rafael Betancourt, and Tommy Kahnle are the candidates to close there and that's the order I would own them in.
The Razzball Podcast is back, this week with a major peek behind our proverbial curtain! Man we had a crazy record day with Windows 10 bouncing around some settings in the Razzball Podcasting studio, Grey putting out fires to keep Razzball running, and a bajillion trades to try and get through... On today's show we catch up on all of the trade deadline deals, changes to bullpens, and hot performers from the last week including Adam Eaton and Aaron Hicks. Now with more Grey rapping! Here's the latest edition of the Razzball Baseball Podcast:
Groove with me, won't you? Admittedly I'm not much of a dancer. I can Macarena with the best of them but that's about it. In fact, if a song is in 4/4 time, that's my go to dance move outside of the towel off. Never heard of the towel off? Well, grab a towel and pretend like you're drying off but to the beat. Grab it and swipe it back and forth against the back of your neck. Good, now down to your shoulders. Alright, now down to your butt. The crescendo? Between the legs swipe! Now start from the top and repeat. Once you have that down, feel free to throw in a little variety. Maybe a 'tilt your head to the side and one hand shake dry your hair' if you're feeling frisky. You've got it! Now don't forget who brought this dance craze to you cuz I don't wanna have to sue you! Yeah, I patented that shizz, wouldn't you? But enough about my sweet dance moves, lets talk some
Jesse Chavez. Baltimore is a team that Ks no matter who they're facing or where they're at. That said, away from Camden Yards, their whiffiness takes a bit of a leap as it sits at 23.8% entering Sunday's contests, placing them third worst road K% right behind the Rockies (24%) and Cubs (23.9%). Notice those numbers? They're basically tied for first here, y'all, and I plan to take advantage of it with Jesse and his splits. Chavez enjoys the cavernous confines of O.Co just fine, thank you, doling out a 2.33 ERA to go with a drop in BB/9 by nearly one from his road starts. It's all interpretation, but methinks he is willing to challenge hitters at home more because of the size of the stadium. This is one of those starts that could yield you 8 to 10 Ks and minimal damage. For the miniscule price of $6,800, you are gonna be hard pressed to find a better deal. So come out on a the dance floor and cha cha Chavez with me, won't you? But enough rug cutting, let's have at it. Here's my Flamenco hot takes for this Monday DK slate...
New to DraftKings? Scared of feeling like a small fish in a big pond? Well try out this 10 teamer of Razzball writers and friends to wet your DK whistle. Just remember to sign up through us before you do. It’s how we know you care! If you still feel helpless and lonely, be sure to subscribe to the DFSBot for your daily baseball plays.
