All the final 2023 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters are done. For those that skipped today’s title, this starts the top 20 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball. This is NOT for next year (caps for those who can’t read titles; supposedly it’s easier to read caps, I have my doubts). This is a recap. Will these affect next year’s rankings? Sure. Maybe. Maybe not. I don’t know. Not entirely. Yes, entirely. Like when you had a knee replacement, this is a recap! To recapitulate the recap, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. We’re (me’re) using it to fairly gauge our (my) preseason rankings. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2023 fantasy baseball and how they compared to where I originally ranked them:
1. Spencer Strider – This is crazy anecdotal, but scientific fact is for nerds! I drafted Strider in one league, where he fell to me, and it didn’t help my team. Well, it helped my pitching, but my hitting was incredibly awful. Because it was Yahoo, and I can’t seem to open the standings page anymore, you’ll have to take my word for it. I was something like 75 HRs off the leader. That meant bad in RBIs and runs and, well, it was a mess. Would Matt Olson had helped to draft there instead of Strider? Absolutely. Sorry, I know it’s a broken record at this point. but you’ll see this top 20 starters (and eventually 40), and you could find so much pitching later that it’s really silly to draft pitching high. I don’t dislike top pitching, I just think it can be had later, and the end of the year rankings show that. Continued in next blurb. Preseason Rank #7, 2023 Projections: 12-7/2.83/1.03/231 in 164 IP, Final Numbers: 20-5/3.86/1.09/281 in 186 2/3 IP
2. Gerrit Cole – It’s a little silly talking about how unpredictable pitching is when you see Strider and Cole at the top here, but you don’t need the top two starters. You need a top 20 starter or two, and you can get three to five of them, if you draft well. No other position that I’ve recapped is like this. You could’ve drafted the next five starters — from Snell to Gausman. Not one, but all five. If you missed one of those, you could’ve drafted three to five of the five starters after that. I’m not just using hindsight here. Check the ADPs. Maybe you couldn’t have had Gausman and Castillo, without hurting your hitting (you would’ve needed to draft two starters in back to back rounds), so, sure, draft Snell, Gallen, Eflin and only Wheeler. That was possible. Or Steele, Snell, Gallen and Eflin. Oh, shucks, only four! If you wanted Senga, Gilbert, Bassitt, Webb and Eflin? It was possible. If you can’t look at this top 20 and see how easy it would’ve been to dominate pitching without drafting a top starter, then I don’t know what else to tell you. But continued into next blurb anyway. Preseason Rank #2, 2023 Projections: 15-4/2.88/0.99/261 in 202 IP, Final Numbers: 15-4/2.63/0.98/222 in 209 IP
3. Blake Snell – But what about the Manoah drafters, they say! But how about the Lance Lynn drafters, they shout! But how about Grayson Rodriguez, Gavin Stone, fill-in starter who sucked. Or, in Grayson’s case, sucked for long enough to drop. Fair, so exactly, you do that. You drop them. In my RCL league, my 1st starter was Yu Darvish. He sucked. And I came within “better win luck” of winning that league with a 10 in both WHIP and ERA, and an 11 in Ks. My third pitcher drafted was Hunter Greene, who was also useless. How did I do so well? Streamonator and I picked up pitchers off waivers. Continued in next blurb. Preseason Rank #30, 2023 Projections: 10-7/3.79/1.24/166 in 127 IP, Final Numbers: 14-9/2.25/1.19/234 in 180 IP
4. Zac Gallen – I had Sonny Gray for 175 IP; Framber for 198 IP; Yu for 125 IP; Hunter Greene for 88 IP and no other starter for more than 57 (Gavin Williams was who I had for 57 IP, getting him off waivers). Somehow I still managed to almost win the league with bad Win luck as my downfall. In that league, Son drafted Burnes, Scherzer, Verlander and Gausman in the 2nd thru 5th round. I finished with 31 points in WHIP, ERA and Ks; he finished with 30, because: Why? Any guesses? It’s because as I keep saying year after year, you don’t need to turn your ERA and WHIP up to 13 in a 12-team league. If you win ERA with a 3.52 ERA, it’s as good as winning with a 3.31 ERA? No. It’s actually much better to barely win it. Getting a way better pitching staff than every other team means you have deficiencies elsewhere. Son finished with almost 50 fewer homers than me. Continued in next blurb. Preseason Rank #22, 2023 Projections: 12-8/3.24/1.02/192 in 181 IP, Final Numbers: 17-9/3.47/1.12/220 in 210 IP
5. Zach Eflin – This shizz is fascinating to me. This is game theory. That’s all I have to say on it. Okay, one more thing! Look at the preseason rankings for the starters here. They’re all over the place! That’s exactly right! It’s not me messing up, it’s starters are unpredictable! Speaking on Eflin, Coolwhip gave you an Eflin sleeper in the preseason, and I liked him. Eflin, not Whip. Kidding! I like Whip too. Eflin proved the point, seriously consider drafting all starters who the Rays want in their rotation. Preseason Rank #63, 2023 Projections: 8-7/3.71/1.14/118 in 138 IP, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.50/1.02/186 in 177 2/3 IP
6. Luis Castillo – Crap, okay, a little more about the state of starters, in general. People look at this and think, “Well, yeah, Castillo’s an ace.” People were 1,000,000% not saying that in the preseason. I drafted Castillo in leagues! I wait until pick 45, at least, and don’t spend more than $30 in auctions. That’s some revisionist history shizz from people saying Castillo was an ace. Yes, he is an ace, but people would say nonsense in the preseason like, “You drafted Castillo as your ace. That sucks, he’s not an ace. He’s a number two. Handsome face, though.” Preseason Rank #12, 2023 Projections: 14-7/2.94/1.10/203 in 186 IP, Final Numbers: 14-9/3.34/1.10/219 in 197 IP
7. Kevin Gausman – All right, final big picture thing to say! I’m serious now, this is it! I nearly nailed my Gausman, Castillo and Gallen projections, and you could’ve drafted all three of them on the same team (Gausman and Castillo would’ve been difficult, but possible, depending on the league — they were going near each other), but say you got two of the three, look at their projections vs. end of the year stats! This goes back to what I was saying early, how much pitching do you think you need? You needed one of these guys, and could’ve had two or three of them. Preseason Rank #13, 2023 Projections: 14-6/2.94/1.09/214 in 188 IP, Final Numbers: 12-9/3.16/1.18/237 in 185 IP
8. Zack Wheeler – What’s interesting about starter rankings year over year is how they change, but the skills don’t really change. For unstints, next year, Wheeler will be ranked before Nola, I’d imagine, and they were reversed in rankings last year. After next year, it could easily be Nola then Wheeler again. This is because starters are unpredictable. Okay, I’m a broken record. I am literally moving on. Preseason Rank #27, 2023 Projections: 10-6/3.31/1.05/164 in 158 IP, Final Numbers: 13-6/3.61/1.08/212 in 192 IP
9. Justin Steele – Welp, called this one. Wrote a sleeper post for him, and he came within two weeks of being the favorite to win the NL Cy. Like Pee Wee Herman, he petered out. RIP. Preseason Rank #77, 2023 Projections: 9-11/3.46/1.29/154 in 148 IP, Final Numbers: 16-5/3.06/1.17/176 in 173 1/3 IP
10. Kyle Bradish – There’s a famous acronym TINSTAPP — There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. It’s 100% accurate. Everyone thinks it’s accurate. Yet, everyone will completely ignore it when it comes to drafting pitching prospects. Could you have predicted Bradish? I suppose, but you got lucky. And if you say you predicted him being a top 10 starter, I have to say, it’s not cool lying to people. Preseason Rank #112, 2023 Projections: 7-11/4.31/1.36/144 in 141 IP, Final Numbers: 12-7/2.83/1.04/168 in 168 2/3 IP
11. George Kirby – This post is going way too long and me saying that just made it longer, but, just an FYI, I need to breeze through some of these. Kirby’s thrown 41 walks in 320 2/3 career innings. I love him. Preseason Rank #25, 2023 Projections: 12-8/3.32/1.14/166 in 161 IP, Final Numbers: 13-10/3.35/1.04/172 in 190 2/3
12. Logan Webb – What I’m noticing while I write this: Guys with solid command are ruling the world. If you have a 3.50+ BB/9, good luck to you trying to be solid while every walk becomes a double with the new rule changes. Preseason Rank #33, 2023 Projections: 11-8/3.41/1.14/168 in 187 IP, Final Numbers: 11-13/3.25/1.07/194 in 216 IP
13. Chris Bassitt – Watch next year: Bassitt will be drafted barely inside the top 35 starters, and you’ll be like, “Well, I just got an ace at pick 110,” someone will be like, “Bassitt? An ace? Ha!” Little does that completely made-up person know Bassitt was the 13th best starter this year. Preseason Rank #32, 2023 Projections: 12-10/3.61/1.17/171 in 189 IP, Final Numbers: 16-8/3.60/1.18/186 in 200 IP
14. Logan Gilbert – Mariners have not only put together a great pitching staff, but they did it in a great home park. Or, maybe that’s why they’re great. No, it’s not, but it sure doesn’t hurt. Preseason Rank #41, 2023 Projections: 9-10/3.71/1.16/177 in 182 IP, Final Numbers: 13-7/3.73/1.08/189 in 190 2/3 IP
15. Clayton Kershaw – Pretty lucky for Kershaw that the regular season doesn’t take place in the postseason. Kershaw struck out 137 hitters two years in a row. If he does it again, he can sleep with Khris Davis’s wife. If she agrees! Preseason Rank #34, 2023 Projections: 10-4/3.07/1.04/117 in 112 IP, Final Numbers: 13-5/2.46/1.06/137 in 131 2/3 IP
16. Framber Valdez – You have to admit, my projections were pretty damn good last year. Wins are whatever, but the rest? C’mon! Give me my just desserts! Preseason Rank #21, 2023 Projections: 16-5/3.03/1.17/189 in 202 IP, Final Numbers: 12-11/3.45/1.13/200 in 198 IP
17. Pablo Lopez – And with that said about projectioins being accurate, Pab-Lo’s strikeouts were bizzonkers out of control last year. I liked him in the preseason, but he added velocity and a ton of Ks. His change even stopped working but his fastball was so good it more than covered for everything else. Preseason Rank #42, 2023 Projections: 11-9/3.24/1.14/177 in 174 IP, Final Numbers: 11-8/3.66/1.15/234 in 194 IP
18. Corbin Burnes – Could we — me and you. Hey, pardner! — draft Burnes next year? Wouldn’t think it possible, but fantasy ‘perts overcorrect from year to year so much I think it might be possible. Giddy, pause for emphasis, up! Preseason Rank #1, 2023 Projections: 14-5/2.56/0.95/256 in 206 IP, Final Numbers: 10-8/3.39/1.07/200 in 193 2/3 IP
19. Kodai Senga – Justin Steele might’ve been my biggest hit on digital paper, but Senga resonates the most with me. Think that’s because it was so obvious, and he was totally forgotten by people for one reason and one reason only: He never did it in this country before. Like Japan isn’t a real league, and he didn’t dominate it. This isn’t a rookie pitcher coming up. He was 30 years old with a ton of professional experience. He also was the highest walk rate here, and now I think he might be overrated. Oops! Preseason Rank #44, 2023 Projections: 10-9/3.61/1.19/143 in 152 IP, Final Numbers: 12-7/2.98/1.22/202 in 166 1/3 IP
20. Freddy Peralta – Senga was one of my biggest hits, FreddyKBB was a huge miss. I didn’t want him. Was worried about his health and his huge velocity drop last year. This year, the velocity was back and oops! Preseason Rank #46, 2023 Projections: 9-11/3.88/1.12/142 in 136 IP, Final Numbers: 12-10/3.86/1.12/210 in 165 2/3 IP
