Went over the catchers, 1st basemen, 2nd basemen and shortstops and top 20 3rd basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball. Guess what’s next! No, not pitchers. Read the title, man. In 2010, there were only 5 outfielders that hit 30 homers, in 2011 there were 9, 14 in 2012 and in 2013 there were 3. This year, small bounce back with 6. That did just mean there were less homers from other positions though, it didn’t mean a bounce back all around for baseball. We are only a few years away from someone leading the league with 25 homers. Steals were still around. There were 14 outfielders who stole 30 bases in 2012, 10 in 2013 and this year there were 11. As before, these rankings are from our Fantasy Baseball Player Rater with my comments. Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2014 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
1. Mike Trout – I’d be liar if I said I wasn’t concerned about the huge difference in how many steals he should’ve had (35 thereabouts), and how many steals he did have (16 exactabouts). Hate to see his steals go the way of the dodo simply because his real baseball value is so much for the Angels they can’t risk him being injured on a steal. That’s gotta be the worst reason for anyone to lose fantasy value, to preserve real baseball value. As the Iron Sheik would say, ptooey! Sorry, if you’re reading this aloud and you just spit on your monitor. Preseason Rank #1, 2014 Projections: 115/30/102/.319/35, Final Numbers: 115/36/111/.287/16
2. Giancarlo Stanton – In the beginning of the year, I dreamt of a world where Giancarlo’s underwear drawer was large enough that I could fit comfortably inside without disturbing his beautifully folded gotchies. Never did I imagine he’d match my home run projections, blow away all my other projections and allow me to do renovations on his underwear drawer so I could stretch out while I slept in there. I wonder if I can fit a fan in here. It’s stuffy. Preseason Rank #10, 2014 Projections: 79/36/89/.264/4, Final Numbers: 89/37/105/.288/13
3. Michael Brantley – From my sleeper post last year, “I’ve gone to this well more times than Baby Jessica’s rescuers, but in Triple-A, Brantley stole 46 bases in 116 games. Now, unless the bases are closer than 90 feet at the Indians’ Triple-A affiliate in Columbus (who, by the way, would’ve approved of the team name Indians, but would’ve thought he was on a different continent), I don’t think that kind of speed just disappears. Kipnis has stolen a ton of bases with the Indians, so there’s no red light across the organization. Maybe Brantley has just taken longer to get acclimated to the major leagues than any other red-blooded man (that’s red-blooded man, protestor looking for a fight over the Indians logo and mascot). Brantley is also entering his 27-year-old season (around the age when hitters come into their own) and just finished his biggest power year. Sure, it was only ten homers, but if he can get to 15 homers and somehow, some way manage to find those other 30 steals that he left back in the minors, he’ll be a top 15 outfielder for all of baseball, not just the AL.” And that’s me quoting me! Loved Brantley in the preseason, you knew about it, you’re welcome. Preseason Rank #48, 2014 Projections: 69/12/77/.280/20, Final Numbers: 94/20/97/.327/23
4. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.
5. Nelson Cruz – Yup, I was taken by surprise by Cruz’s season, but other than Boras, who pushed Cruz to a one-year deal, everyone was surprised by Cruz’s season. Seems like every year the O’s have some guy come out of nowhere to hit a shizzton of homers. Here’s to Schoop in 2015! Preseason Rank #44, 2014 Projections: 60/25/74/.259/6, Final Numbers: 87/40/108/.271/4
6. Carlos Gomez – Finally, we have someone that is nearly right on for projections and end-of-the-season stats so we can compare to how much offense I thought there would be vs. how much offense there actually was. Gomez matched projections almost identically and yet my ranking was 12 guys off. 12 guys that should’ve been better that just weren’t here. Like Al from Happy Days, yep, yep, yep. Preseason Rank #18, 2014 Projections: 84/22/71/.259/35, Final Numbers: 95/23/73/.284/34
7. Andrew McCutchen – Since there was a landmine behind just about every door in the first round, The Dread Pirate didn’t kill anyone’s year. He led the NL in OPS (3rd in majors) and…Ugh, I’m worried about his steals coming down too. Since he’s going to be 28 next year, it’s gonna be something to watch. If he goes from a 25/18 guy to a 21/12 guy, we could be looking at the beginning of the end of The Dread Pirate in the top 10 overall. Preseason Rank #2, 2014 Projections: 91/25/94/.320/24, Final Numbers: 89/25/83/.314/18
8. Adam Jones – See what I said about McCutchen? Okay, now look at Jones’s steals last year. Luckily, Jones has more power than McCutchen, though not as much average. I have a feeling the top 10 next year is gonna be surmised with: Well, someone’s gotta be drafted in the top ten. Preseason Rank #3, 2014 Projections: 94/32/105/.282/15, Final Numbers: 88/29/96/.281/7
9. Justin Upton – It took a few years, but it’s clear which Upton sucks, we should’ve just used context clues. Justin doesn’t seem remotely capable of the 20-steal speed he showed earlier in his career, but maybe at some point in his thirties he’ll grow twenty-foot arms and start flapping around the bases fast like Hunter Pence. Preseason Rank #11, 2014 Projections: 88/25/79/.270/12, Final Numbers: 77/29/102/.270/8
10. Charlie Blackmon – As with our fine nation, the 2014 season was made possible by the sweat and tears of the unheralded Blackmon. Trying to understand Blackmon’s season is like trying to understand how to pronounce Chiwetel Ejiofor. (Hint: It’s pronounced like TChiwetel Ejiofor just without the first T.) He had some power in the minors, some speed, but never to this level. Every once in a while, a guy comes out of nowhere and has a season that is huge, then slowly disappears again over the course of a few seasons. Ludwick comes to mind. I wouldn’t be surprised if we never see another season like this from Blackmon, and in a couple of years he’s a platoon player. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 82/19/72/.288/28
11. Hunter Pence – An art critic from the Barnes Foundation once said, “The Gangly Manbird is the best example of the American art form of caricatures made in a tourist locale. The Gangly Manbird seems so life-like, but he’s really just a series of pencil markings on a sketch pad that an artist with little talent draws next to a Dippin Dots stand.” Preseason Rank #19, 2014 Projections: 83/24/90/.262/12, Final Numbers: 106/20/74/.277/13
12. Matt Kemp – If it wasn’t for a huge final two weeks (that included a series in Coors), Kemp would’ve landed directly on my preseason projections. Which means A) What should’ve been around the 24th most valuable outfielder was nearly top ten. B) Chris Brown was able to recover from Rihanna a lot quicker than Kemp. C) There’s no C. Preseason Rank #24, 2014 Projections: 71/22/76/.266/10, Final Numbers: 77/25/89/.287/8
13. Jacoby Ellsbury – I nailed all of my preseason schmohawk posts this year and am now something like 29 for 30 in the last seven years for predicting guys that are overrated. Ellsbury wasn’t a huge bust like some of the other ones — Kipnis and Mauer, or as obvious as Matt Carpenter. He did come with the highest price tag in the preseason — 1st round at most sites. (That’s the highest price tag of a preseason overrated player if you don’t count Mauer at Locoworld.) Ellsbury ended up hitting more fly balls and less ground balls than he had in 2013, which helped him add some power, but it also hurt his average, and he probably would’ve been more valuable for fantasy and his team if he hit the ball on the ground more. Either way, he was fine, but not a first rounder. (Note on my projections, I figured he would have more runs due to mostly leading off not hitting third.) Preseason Rank #13, 2014 Projections: 98/13/57/.279/32, Final Numbers: 71/16/70/.271/39
14. Yoenis Cespedes – The Human Centipede, the Yo Form Of Enis or whatever you want to call him is about as steady as they come — 25 HRs, 8 steals, .260, plus or minus 3 HRs, 2 SBs and .005, respectively. On a larger note, there are a bunch of these 25-homer, 8-steal guys. Not necessarily exciting if you can remember what hitters hit back in the early naughts, but also not terrible. Preseason Rank #26, 2014 Projections: 70/25/85/.255/10, Final Numbers: 89/22/100/.260/7
15. Corey Dickerson – This might seem to be the antithesis of what you might think, but unlike Blackmon, I’m impressed by this Dickerson. Don’t think this is the last we hear of him. For most of you, it might be the first you’ve heard of him. He has that thing going where as long as he plays, he will rack up stats for fantasy due to speed and power. 2014 was just the beginning. Preseason Rank #89, 2014 Projections: 57/12/37/.274/10, Final Numbers: 74/24/76/.312/8
16. Lucas Duda – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.
17. Chris Carter – Went over him in the top 20 1st basemen.
18. Yasiel Puig – He had 11 homers through the end of May and he seemed headed for the big breakout that I envisioned, then suddenly Puig started to hit singles and became Charley Luau, only hitting five homers the rest of the way and only two homers from June 1st through September 15th. In my 20/20 hindsight, it’s clear we can’t trust Puig to produce all year, because he’s flakier than C.J. Wilson’s scalp. Preseason Rank #8, 2014 Projections: 90/28/94/.285/20, Final Numbers: 92/16/69/.296/11
19. Jayson Werth – I’ve said it before, I’ll say it many times again. You can’t trust runs and RBIs. You can predict power and speed. A guy that is a 25-homer guy is a 25-homer guy; a guy with 15-steal speed can steal 15 bags. Sure, there’s pluses and minuses with those stats even due to injuries, luck and slumps, but a hitter’s ability is his ability. No hitters have 90-run or 90-RBI ability. That’s solely based on his teammates. I bring this up now because Werth’s season is totally being buoyed by runs and RBIs. (Yes, same could’ve be said of Puig, but I’m saying it now, okay? Okay.) Preseason Rank #22, 2014 Projections: 72/22/88/.279/10, Final Numbers: 85/16/82/.292/9
20. Matt Holliday – Not sure what’s scarier. The fact that Holliday is a 22-homer guy plus or minus three homers with next-to-no speed or the fact that that (stutterer!) is a top 20 outfielder. Prolly the latter, as in hitting walked up a latter with a rope. Preseason Rank #21, 2014 Projections: 93/22/101/.292/5, Final Numbers: 83/20/90/.272/4
