Howdy, Razzball faithful! We’ve finally made it to the finish line! Here’s hoping that you’re still in the running for that league crown, or at least haven’t fallen victim to that dreaded cold spell in those Head-to-Head playoffs. If you’re out of the running in fantasy baseball, hopefully, you’re still excited for the real playoff action that’s just around the corner.
Speaking of sprinting across the finish line, I wanted to do a quick overview of the top 5 stolen base contributors at each position from 2023. I figured it would be a nice way to provide an overview of the SB contributors and tie a nice, neat bow around the season in the process. I’ll add a couple of blurbs in each section, then throw a few nods towards 2024 to hold us over through the winter.
(For the record, I took the kiddos to a preseason hockey game last night so the totals are as of 9 PM ET Monday night)
If you’re half as excited as this guy was…then we’re in good shape.
? TJ FRIEDL INSIDE-THE-PARK HOME RUN ?@TjFriedl1 pic.twitter.com/EMSlamsQhi
— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) September 23, 2023
Let’s get to it!
Catchers – JT Realmuto (16), Connor Wong (7), Willson Contreras (6), Gabriel Moreno (6), William Contreras and Bo Naylor (5).
Talk about woof. When a 32 year old Jerry Tomato more than doubles the output in steals of the next ranked catcher, you know the position is even more brutal than advertised. I don’t know what’s worse, that Connor Wong finished second here with 354 at-bats (to Realmuto’s 479), or that Bo Naylor tied the second Contreras brother with fewer than half of his games played. William suited up for 132 games compared to the Cleveland rookie’s 63. Ugh.
I’d like to think that Gabriel Moreno would have had a much more successful season if he hadn’t missed 50 games due to injury. He was my bold prediction/way-outside-the-box pick this year and at least looks like he’ll make good on the .280+ average part of it (.291 as of Monday night).
All of this without even mentioning Dalton Varsho, and possibly MJ Melendez, losing eligibility for next year, too. Barf emoji.
2024 names to consider – Speaking of MJ Melendez, I really expected more from the Kansas City backstop this year. His 6 SB would have qualified him for this list in some leagues. The problem is, with just 10 GP behind the dish, he’s almost certain to lose that eligibility for next year too. Some other names that came in with top sprint speeds for catchers via Statcast … and don’t think I don’t realize what kind of gigantic oxymoron that statement even is … Logan O’Hoppe, Nick Fortes, Endy Rodriguez, Shea Langeliers, Yanier Diaz.
First Base – Freddie Freeman (22), Spencer Steer (15), Luke Raley (14), Paul Goldschmidt (11), Christian Walker (11)
What’s with these geezers leading the charge? B-Don did acknowledge he was way off with his prediction that Freeman would be a bust this year but if anyone says that they forecasted 22 steals for the 34 year old, they’d better return the almanac to Biff Tannen ASAP.
Spencer Steer was a sneaky one here. That Cincinnati core of youth is looking better and better every day. It’s almost enough to make Reds fans forget about their own “other hot corner” Canadian hero…almost.
“I gotta go hit.” Reds and ?? legend Joey Votto to a standing ovation in Cincinnati’s final home game of the year.
????????????
? @Reds
pic.twitter.com/VY7F4e5cxI— Tim Micallef (@tim_micallef) September 24, 2023
2024 names to consider – It’s pretty tough to forecast any first basemen for steals, but names like Jake Cronenworth, Nolan Schanuel, and Nathaniel Lowe had the quickest Statcast times from home plate to first base. Again, this might be like opting for a punch in the face over a kick to the groin when compared to seeking out steals with the catchers, but outside of a resurgent Cody Bellinger, Freeman might actually be the best bet for steals yet again next season.
Second Base – Nico Hoerner (42), Ha-Seong Kim (36), Andres Gimenez (30), Bryson Stott (30), Jose Caballero and Whit Merrifield (26).
Now we’re cookin’! I never was a Nico Hoerner fan, and couldn’t understand why he was so hyped up last year after a 10 HR, 20 SB, .281 season. I mean, that was what Ian Happ’s floor was supposed to be, no? Well, 40+ SB this year and I’m definitely on the wrong side of this one. Throw in that Hoerner is in his peak years (age 26), and we could see more of the same in 2024.
2024 names to consider – Ji_Hwan Bae (ouch), Jazz Chisholm (ouchier), Gavin Lux (ouchiest), Christopher Morel, Brice Turang, Jordan Westburg. If you want to roll the dice on some youngsters, Xavier Edwards in Miami or Luisangel Acuna in New York (Mets) would be worth a deeper dive.
Third Base – Willi Castro (32), Jose Ramirez (27), Maikel Garcia (23), Taylor Walls (22), Zach McKinstry (16).
Pop goes the weasel ‘cause the weasel goes pop. Sorry. Every time I type that it’s a loop of MC Serch back to the memory banks. I know. Kinda stupid.
I cheated here and included Castro, despite the fact that MLB.com didn’t have him listed at the hot corner. I figured with 38 GP, he should be eligible there in a lot of leagues next year along with his primary OF position (79 GP).
To say that the drop-off is real here is probably an understatement. Taylor Walls and Zach McKinstry may have less power than a good number of guys in my men’s slo-pitch league.
2024 names to consider – Ke’Bryan Hayes, Gunnar Henderson, Noelvi Marte, Royce Lewis. If we stretch it to include rookies, Junior Caminero, Colt Keith, Coby Mayo, Curtis Mead, and Orelvis Martinez all have 45 grade speed.
Shortstop – Bobby Witt (48), CJ Abrams (43), Elly De La Cruz (33), Wander Franco (30), Francisco Lindor (30).
I’ve covered all of these guys at some point over the season. I would have liked to be happy that I had Wander Franco down for my writers breakout pick, as a 17 HR, 30 SB, .281 season in 112 games is pretty impressive…but I think that’s the last we’ll be hearing from him for a while.
There were a few notable misses in the top 5 here – Trea Turner, everyone’s NL MVP pick after a hot WBC sits at 29 SB. Tommy Edman has 25 steals. Even Miami Fish’s Flash, Jon Berti, has a measly 15 SB.
2024 names to consider – Adalberto Mondesi…
I’m sorry. I couldn’t resist.
Whoa, do we have a nice group to pick from here! O’Neil Cruz should top the list. Masyn Winn, Matt McLain, Trevor Story, and Anthony Volpe are near the top of the Statcast speed scores. For the rookies, Jackson Holliday, Jordan Lawlar, Ceddanne Rafaela, and even Ronny Mauricio have decent wheels and a path to playing time in 2024.
Outfield – Ronald Acuna Jr. (68), Esteury Ruiz (65), Corbin Carroll (51), Julio Rodriguez (36), Willi Castro and Josh Lowe (32).
U Can’t Touch This!
Wowzers. I dropped a comment in Grey’s rundown on Monday morning about how insane some of these numbers might have been if our two leaders played a full 162. Either way, the statlines from both of these guys are pretty obscene. I mentioned in my All-Star Break SAGNOF article that Ruiz should be able to make a run at Kenny Lofton’s AL rookie record of 66 stolen bases, and it looks like he’s got his eyes on that prize. I fully expect him to eclipse that mark at some point over this final week.
Toot toot on the Marmo-Horn (don’t worry, that’s still PG-13) for these guys here, as I had Ruiz down as my sleeper (had to go with the SAGNOF brand there). I also had Carroll for the NL ROY. Lots of patting on the back for sure at least for the ones that panned out.
2024 names to consider – The outfield cup runneth over. Steven Kwan, Randy Arozarena, Jarred Kelenic (although he feels like that might be a Charlie Brown/football kind of thing), Garrett Mitchell, Jarren Duran, Jose Siri, Colton Cowser, Michael Harris II, Cedric Mullins, TJ Friedl, Chas McCormick, Dairon Blanco, Jake McCarthy, Sal Frelick, Will Brennan, Kerry Carpenter…holy smokes. The list just keeps going.
Some rookies in the outfield that are worth a second look : Jackson Chourio, Dylan Crews, James Wood, Evan Carter, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Druw Jones.
And of course, everyone’s favorite storyline to watch all winter long…the only DH that warrants a mention here despite the UCL injury and TJS. To be honest, does anyone even play this guy as a pitcher in leagues other than daily moves or points?
Shohei Ohtani – 20 SB.
Well, there you have it folks. If you stayed here with me through all of that, first of all, thanks…and I’ll get to more of that later.
But I did want to draw some attention to something that Grey touched on in last week’s pod with B-Don. At the beginning of this year, there was a lot of talk about how to tackle the stolen base category in fantasy leagues. With the new rules, new bases, pitch clock, and general hullabaloo about steals, there were a ton of different strategies floating around in February.
A lot of people figured that since steals would be increasing across the board, it would be fine to wait around for some of the SAGNOF guys near the bottom of the draft board and supplement along the way. Others preferred to spend a lot of top picks on the Trea Turners and Jazz Chisholms of the world, with some even reaching for a repeat from Jon Berti or Jorge Mateo.
I went into drafts with a bit of a balance. I tried to target types of players with speed skills that would probably get the green light more often, and those with a chance to break out due to their skill set, playing time situation, and past production (even in the minor leagues).
Grey probably said it best. If everyone is getting an increase in stolen bases, “you’d better make sure you have a lot of steals on your team. You want to be able to say that you are gonna be top 3 in steals. You don’t want to punt a position or a category because there’s a lot of it (available).”
Did I get lucky with some of my picks? Sure. Esteury Ruiz could have flopped. Josh Lowe could have ended up back in AAA, Oneil Cruz could have broken his leg…er…maybe that’s a bad example.
I think a lot of it worked, though. I did go from getting bounced before the first cut of Razzslam 2022 to finishing this year with the 7th highest point total : 2415.1. That was good for 5th place on the Wild Card side (and somehow would’ve put me in 3rd on the Championship side – don’t ask me how that works as I still have no idea).
In a nutshell, and without getting into being active in waivers and FAAB bidding, I guess what I’m saying is make sure you insulate your teams next draft season with enough stolen bases that you don’t fall into an early hole because it will be really difficult to climb out of, even if steals are up across the board. Punting a category or a position is never a great plan.
I suppose that’s one of many reasons why it’s good to keep coming back to us here at Razzball. Let us do the research and write-ups for you, and you can decide which direction to steer your fantasy ships in spring 2024!
Lastly, before I head off to hibernate in the DadCave for the winter, I wanted to say thanks to Grey, Rudy, Truss, the other writers, and anyone that’s read even a bit of my stuff here. I’m so grateful for the opportunity to share some ideas, numbers, and observations with you, and appreciate it all more than you know.
Thanks again and have a great off-season! See you in 2024!
MD.
