It’s only January (at least at the time I started writing this) and I’ve already participated in two mock drafts for the 2018 fantasy baseball season. To say I’m excited for the next few months would be an understatement. To say my sun dial was pointing at high noon might be a bit much, but when have I shied away from saying something unnecessary? Halloween and draft season are my favorite times of the year. Now while I prefer an auction to a draft, I still take great pleasure in selecting a team according to snake draft rules. Especially when it doesn’t officially count.
Over the last three years only one batter has averaged more fantasy points per season than Nolan Arenado. That player is Paul Goldschmidt, who has averaged 599.5 points. Arenado’s average is 592. These averages will vary depending on your league’s scoring system, but for the most part, the ordering of players should remain mostly the same. When it was my turn to make my first pick at the four spot, Mike Trout, Jose Altuve and Mr. Goldschmidt were already gone. This left me with what I feel was the obvious choice of Arenado. Quite honestly I’m almost inclined to say that given his age, he’s the better pick over Goldschmidt. Did I really just say that?
Nolan Arenado has been the model of consistency since his breakout season in 2015. Let’s look at his numbers.
2015: 157 G, 616 AB, 42 HR, 130 RBI, 34 BB, 110 SO, 2 SB, 177 hits and .287 AVG
2016: 160 G, 618 AB, 41 HR, 133 RBI, 68 BB, 103 SO, 2 SB, 182 hits and .294 AVG
2017: 159 G, 606 AB, 37 HR, 130 RBI, 62 BB, 106 SO, 3 SB, 187 hits and .309 AVG
Those stats are ridiculous. The only two changes I see in those numbers are both improvements. Between 2015 and 2016 his walks doubled, and that number remained consistent in 2017. In addition, each year his batting average has gradually increased with him ending the season with an average above .300. Writing an algorithm to project Arenado’s 2018 stats is so easy a caveman can do it. Yes, Justin Turner, I’m looking at you. Would anyone be surprised to see Nolan finish 2018 with the following line?
2018: 159 G, 615 AB, 39 HR, 131 RBI, 65 BB, 105 SO, 2 SB, 188 hits and .307 AVG
Mark it down now. There’s my 2018 projections for Mr. Arenado. And by the way, if you said you’d be surprised, you’re might not be the sharpest tool in the shed. Let’s not forget where Nolan plays half of his games!
Consistency is key in points leagues. I guess that’s true for all formats, but certainly in points leagues.
A few years back I thought that stud pitchers were just as valuable as stud hitters and that some of them were even first round worthy picks. I have slowly backed off on that line of thinking. I will still make a case for Clayton Kershaw late in the first round, but my reason for change is that hitters are just that much more consistent. Also, pitchers are much more injury prone. In 2017 there were 130 different starting pitchers that made visits to the DL as compared to 226 position players. Keep in mind we are comparing one position (pitcher) to eight (plus DH). Even looking at Kershaw, he has only pitched more than 200 innings once in the last four seasons.
With that in mind, I actually held off on drafting a starting pitcher until the fourth round when I took Carlos Martinez. I followed that pick up by selecting Jose Quintana seven picks later. Quintana’s numbers with the Cubs were better across the board than on the south side with the White Sox. I think a full season in the north side is going to produce a solid result. As for CarMart, I’m expecting a top ten year.
For completeness, here’s my full team.
| RD | PK | PLAYER |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | N. Arenado 3B COL |
| 2 | 21 | J. Ramirez 3B CLE |
| 3 | 28 | J. Abreu 1B CHW |
| 4 | 45 | C. Martinez SP STL |
| 5 | 52 | J. Quintana SP CHC |
| 6 | 69 | C. Yelich CF MIL |
| 7 | 76 | S. Marte LF PIT |
| 8 | 93 | L. Weaver SP STL |
| 9 | 100 | L. Castillo SP CIN |
| 10 | 117 | S. Perez C KC |
| 11 | 124 | J. Gray SP COL |
| 12 | 141 | A. Jones CF BAL |
| 13 | 148 | A. Colome RP TB |
| 14 | 165 | J. Bell 1B PIT |
| 15 | 172 | B. Peacock SP HOU |
| 16 | 189 | B. Honeywell SP TB |
| 17 | 196 | J. Baez 2B CHC |
| 18 | 213 | A. Reyes SP STL |
| 19 | 220 | E. Longoria 3B SF |
| 20 | 237 | L. Gregerson RP STL |
| 21 | 244 | Y. Solarte 2B TOR |
I was hoping Freddie Freeman would fall to me in the second, but he didn’t. Instead I took Jose Ramirez. Last year he was a top ten bat and had only 12.5 points less than Jose Altuve. To sweeten the deal, he’s eligible at both 2B and 3B. In the third I was shooting for George Springer. When he was taken one pick before my turn, I switched gears to Jose Abreu who scored 521.5 points in 2017. That was the most he’s scored in a season in his career and was 2.5 more points than Kris Bryant who was the 14th overall pick.
Despite waiting on a pitcher I’m still pretty happy with starting rotation of National League pitchers. Martinez, Quintana, Luke Weaver, Luis Castillo and Jon Gray should provide me with a solid, high upside option. I also grabbed Brent Honeywell who I think has a bright future. And if you read my last post you’d know I’m high on Alex Reyes. As I said in one of the comments, I see his value as a 16-18 round pick. I took him in the 18th of this draft. See, I eat my own dog food. I’m not sure what I was thinking with Brad Peacock, but I’ll chalk that up to my lack of preparation.
You can see the rest of the results here: Full Mock Draft Results
