In the offseason, I experimented with a new rankings system. After a several iterations of trial and error, I finally arrived at a solution that yielded favorable results. Even though we are only about eight games into the 2016 season, I decided to give the system a test run. The saying “size matters” definitely comes into play in this case. Approximately 28 plate appearances for a hitter is barely enough to scratch the surface. Projecting based on these numbers is more of a fool’s errand than a productive endeavor, but far be it from me to avoid the opportunity to be a fool.
For those wondering how the system ranks players, I’ll give you the 30,000 foot view. Employing multiple points scoring systems I use both year-to-date and projected stats to calculate points. For each scoring system I then rank the players by position. I then take all the rankings for each player and average them to give each player a ranking. Finally I sort the players based on their average rankings.
As we move deeper into the season I will provide a much fuller and detailed list of rankings, but for today I am just going to give you the top five hitters at each position.
Catcher
Buster Posey
Brian McCann
Miguel Montero
Francisco Cervelli
Salvador Perez
1B
Anthony Rizzo
Adrian Gonzalez
Miguel Cabrera
Chris Davis
Mark Trumbo
2B
Ian Kinsler
Daniel Murphy
Jose Altuve
DJ LeMahieu
Starlin Castro
3B
Nolan Arenado
Manny Machado
Daniel Murphy
Josh Donaldson
Adrian Beltre
Tyler White
SS
Trevor Story
Carlos Correa
Eugenio Suarez
Jean Segura
Starlin Castro
Corey Seager
OF
Bryce Harper
Jeremy Hazelbaker
Carlos Gonzalez
Jose Bautista
J.D. Martinez
Yasiel Puig
Brock Holt
Chris Davis
Christian Yelich
Dexter Fowler
Here’s what else I’ve got for you based on the limited data at my disposal.
Let me tell you a little “story” about a shortstop named Trevor. He exploded onto the scene hitting seven home runs in his first six games. Everyone was talking about him. I heard Jose Reyes even bought his kids Trevor’s jersey to wear to the games. What most people seem to be ignoring is the fact that he has also struck out in one third of his plate appearances. In 2015 he struck out 141 times in 575 plate appearances (24.5%). In 2014 he struck out 144 times in 463 plate appearance (31.1%). And in 2013 he fanned 183 times in 554 opportunities (33%). His strikeout rate has gotten better, but the potential to whiff is not going away. And anyone who thinks he can continue to hit a home run every 5.2 trips to the plate probably also believes that Reyes’s kids are wearing Trevor’s jerseys. So how does this story end. Sell high. Strike while the iron is hot.
Anyone that has read my posts know that I like to use points per plate appearance to help analyze hitters. Those that use at-bats are using the wrong variables. What I want to know is how many points a player generates every time he steps into the batters box. At-bats ignore walks, hit by pitches and sacrifices. All three of these result in points in most points leagues. Ignoring them is simply wrong.
As of Wednesday, Brian McCann has the highest PPPA in fantasy baseball based on standard points systems. I’m sure there’s a system out there that says it’s Trevor Story, but not mine. I also believe that McCann will finish the season ahead of Story.
Eugenio who? Eugenio Suarez, that’s who. With four home runs in 34 plate appearances he finds himself only a few points behind Story. I don’t know that I can buy into this guy, but I will say this. It’s players like Suarez that seemingly come out of nowhere that end up on the rosters of teams that win fantasy championships.
How about Jeremy Hazelbaker? At 28 years old, after seven years in the Minors, he is finally getting his big chance. Without scrutinizing them, here’s what I see when looking at his minor league stats. He looks like a guy that hits about 15 home runs and steals at least 25 bases. What’s not to like about that. The question is whether he can achieve those stats in big leagues. I think the only thing standing in his way is playing time. There are a lot of mouths to feed in St. Louis. I’m not buying his #2 OF ranking above, but given the tiny sample size, that’s where he lands today. We can revisit this in two weeks.
I have a strong feeling that Daniel Murphy is going to be one fantasy baseball’s more valuable players. Part of that is due to the fact that he is eligible at both 2B and 3B. Given that statement, how could I leave out Brock Holt.
Here are some very early buy low candidates: Freddie Freeman, Albert Pujols, Kyle Seager, Joey Votto and Mike Moustakas.
Don’t be fooled by Jay Bruce and keep an eye on Matt Kemp.
As for pitchers, I’m not even going to attempt to rank them based on two starts, but I promise to give them their fair share of attention in the coming weeks…
