You know, this signing of Zack Greinke with the Diamondbacks isn’t much of a surprise since Greinke is so intellectually driven and Phoenix is on the cutting edge of cyber-learning. Did you know 1 out of 24 graduates from the University of Phoenix go on to make six figures? Of course, 1 out of 24 graduates from the University of Phoenix are chosen to be in their commercials and paid $100,000. That gives me an idea, we should start a college and charge students $200,000 for a 4-year degree, then hire every graduate for $24,000/year. Shoot, every college and company are already working this scheme. Any hoo! Zack Greinke goes to the Diamondbacks and takes a hit in his value or will take multiple hits on his value. Don’t think the Dodgers are really that much better offensively than the D-Backs. Actually, they’re worse. So, it’s not a hit due to chance for wins. It’s a hit due to home stadium change. Arizona’s decidedly a hitters’ park and the Casa de Doyers is not. Arizona is around top five for hitting, whereas Dodger Stadium is around bottom five. Things sway yearly, but Chase Field has had years in the top two for offense, only sniffing Coors’ butt. Mean’s while, Dodger Stadium has had years in the bottom three for all offense, only staying in front of Safeco and Petco. I doubt Greinke falls back to a 4+ ERA pitcher he was his last year on the Royals, but he was a 3.83 ERA pitcher in another hitting-friendly park in Milwaukee, and that’s not so good. Oh, and Greinke is 32 years old. Yeah, you don’t need a degree from the University of Phoenix to know this deal could go sideways real fast. For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 15-8/3.54/1.16/194 in 210 IP and someone I am not going near. Anyway, here’s what else I saw in the offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:
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Seattle’s farm produced two interesting players for the 2016 fantasy baseball season. I like Ketel Marte as a late-round flyer at a shallow middle infield position. He can hit and steal, and should be a good source of runs if he bats in front of Robinson Cano and Nelson Cruz as he’s currently projected. Then there’s Carson Smith, who I imagine a lot of fantasy owners will be drafting as the closer in waiting if he hasn’t already taken the reins by opening day. The first thing I noticed when putting together this preview is the plethora of outfield prospects in the Mariners’ system, as well as the lack of impact talent from the 2015 draft (they didn’t pick in the first round). It’s a bit dicey gambling on hitters that may call Seattle their home one day, so this has never been my go-to system for fantasy prospects. Of course the flip side of that is that their pitching prospects have a little more room to breathe.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Robert Stephenson reminds me of another some-time-ago Reds prospect, Edinson Volquez. Nasty stuff that some people thought could turn into a number two starter. Unfortunately, for a while, Edinson was just a number two, but not as in a starter. Then Ray Searage happened. The Pirates pitching coach fixed Edinson like Chris Martin fixed Gwyneth or like Bill Cosby fixed your mom’s drink in the late 70s, essentially helping Edinson harness his control. Edinson maxes out at 98 MPH, and Stephenson goes above that, touching 100 MPH on occasion. Everything else looks to be similar. Stephenson has no control, and the videos of him give me the impression that he’s still a thrower, not a pitcher. It’s God’s cruel joke that guys that throw fast can never command their pitches. Or Vishnu’s cruel joke if you’re reading in India. Or General Tso if you’re reading in China. Or Ben Carson if you’re a once-conjoined twin reading this in a church. If Stephenson wasn’t ready for a starting rotation job out of this spring and able to have a 9+ K/9, we wouldn’t be here talking about him, but we are here and we are talking about him. Anyway, what can we expect of Robert Stephenson for 2016 fantasy baseball?
Please, blog, may I have some more?The Red Sox signed David Price to a seven-year deal for $217 million. MFW I heard. I get that half goes to the government, and ten percent goes to his lawyer, and ten percent goes to his agent, and ten percent goes to his business manager, and ten percent goes to his accountant, and ten percent goes to the guy in his business manager’s office that is pretending to be his business manager and moving money straight to a bank account in Turks and Caicos without anyone knowing, but $217 million is ludicrous. The Ghost of Curt Flood says, “Ya’ll abusing the crack baby out free agency.” The ‘crack baby’ modifier is popular amongst ghosts. The Ghost of Marion Barry started it. This contract makes me long for the days of collusion. This doesn’t even take into account how stupid it is from the Red Sox perspective, and I don’t mean just due to Price’s unstellar (Made Up Word of the Day!) playoff history. There will never be a contract where this much money ever makes sense. Look at your World Champion Royals, they don’t have one guy making more than ten million. Look at the past handful of huge contracts, have any of them looked good in hindsight? By the third year, this will look as egregious as the contracts given to Sabathia, A-Rod, Cano, Ryan Howard…Okay, nothing will look as bad as Ryan Howard’s. It’s not like contracts are secret either. It’s not as if the Red Sox are sitting there scratching their heads wondering how much the Royals are paying Hosmer. Big contracts get you nowhere! I said that last sentence while pounding my fist on a lectern as a few kids dozed in the front row. As for Price, he’ll turn 31 years old during the 2016 season, which is not exactly when pitchers get better, but he looks like he could stave off decline for a year or two. Last year, his fastball velocity went up from 2014, his K-rate was above his career average and his walk rate was within sneezing distance of his career mark. He was a tad lucky on homers, LOB% and BABIP, but he appears to be 2.70-3.20 ERA pitcher with neutral luck. Of course, I wouldn’t draft him since I don’t buy number one fantasy aces, but I doubt Fenway or the AL East really hurt him that much. At least not until the third year of his deal when there will be 217 million reasons why the Red Sox want to unload him. For 2016, I’ll give him the projections of 17-7/3.03/1.10/225 in 220 IP. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last week I joined a league called The Devil’s Rejects. You’ve probably seen posts on this league over at FanGraphs recently. In fact, it must have subconciously rubbed off on me because that is a very FanGraphsy title. Rejects is a 20-team dynasty with 45-man rosters where we keep 28 forever. It’s full of industry talent from sites like FG and Baseball Prospectus. Razzball’s own J-FOH has a team and we’ve already made our first trade with no blood, sweat, or tears spilled. The squad I took over was one that had cycled through a couple of owners in the previous two or three years. So yeah, it’s a bit of a project. But the point of this post is that there’s one name on this roster I have absolutely no idea what to do with, and I’m wondering if other dynasty geeks out there are faced with the same problem. It’s Shohei Otani, the Japanese pitcher who’s tearing it up in the NPB.
Please, blog, may I have some more?The Tigers are doing all of their buying early this year, huh? They’re like your mom that one year she did all her Christmas shopping about two and a half months before everyone else. Then the presents sat in your basement until Christmas and, since presents aren’t supposed to sit in a basement that long without being used, the PlayStation got mildew damage and Dad’s cordless shaver batteries seeped. Then, when Christmas finally rolled around your mom’s talking about how presents aren’t why you celebrate baby Jesus’ birthday and you say if that were true then why was she in such a hurry to buy presents in September? And she says to shut up and enjoy your starting pitcher with a falling K-rate and a raising xFIP. Well, if she were the Tigers’ GM. To quote Gordon Gekko, Jordan Zimmermann is a dog with different fleas. Last year, he had a 7.3 K/9 after a 8.2 in 2014. He had a 3.82 xFIP last year, his highest since his rookie year. He’s always impressed with his lack walks, but even those crept up from 1.3 in 2014 to 1.7 last year. Oh, and now he goes from the NL East to the AL. The Tigers should just go out and get Johnny Cueto and a pair of Zubaz to make it official that they just don’t understand bad trends. For 2016, I’ll give Zimmermann the projections of 14-11/3.89/1.24/155 and someone I won’t go near next year. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this offseason for 2016 fantasy baseball:
Please, blog, may I have some more?In an NFBC 15-team league where there are no pickups in-season, I already plan on drafting Trevor Story, and it’s only November, and this is coming from a guy who doesn’t know what he’s doing next weekend. How’s that for excitement, Spanish beach? Hmm, maybe that makes more sense if I leave it as playa. Here’s what Prospect Mike said recently, “(Story went) 20/20 in Double and Triple-A as a 22-year-old with a decent average…knocking on the door at Coors with only Jose Reyes in his way? Gimme. The strikeout rate has always been a concern for him, but that’s a risk I’m willing to take with his offensive upside at shortstop. 2016 should see him in the majors, and depending on how quickly the Rockies unload Reyes (or he gets injured) it could be a quick stay in Triple-A for Trevor. Now if we could only unload Grey.” Geez, what did I do to this guy? I’ll go Mike one better, Reyes won’t be playing for the Rockies by May. What makes me so confident? For the past three years, Reyes hasn’t made it out of April without an injury. It was a solid career, but doode’s so toast that Wonder Bread calls him up for a booty call. Anyway, what can we expect from Trevor Story for 2016 fantasy baseball?
Please, blog, may I have some more?Last season didn’t go as planned for the White Sox, but we did get to see the emergence of Carlos Rodon, one of the more exciting young arms in the game. The Sox followed a similar formula in the 2015 draft, selecting college righty Carson Fulmer in the first round. He might not be as quick to the show as Rodon, but Fulmer shouldn’t last long in the minors either. While rookie Carlos Sanchez held down the fort at the keystone in 2015, this year should bring another extended look for Micah Johnson. Tim Anderson could also get a shot this year. He’s a polarizing prospect on traditional lists but brings a high fantasy ceiling to the table.
Please, blog, may I have some more?Pretty high up the food chain of requirements for these posts is playing time with the major league club. I’m doing these rookie posts with an eye on redraft leagues. Can they be used for keeper leagues? Does a bear crap in the woods into a hollowed-out tree trunk and then yell to his bear wife, “Baby, do we have toilet paper in the other bathroom?” With that said, Jose Peraza has a bit of a muddled picture for playing time, which is not as wonderful as being muddled with mint. You hear me, Mojito?! On the bright side, Don Mattingly is out of town, so we don’t have to worry about him accidentally playing Ethier at 2nd base. On the less than bright side, the Dodgers are a team that expects to make the playoffs and should have Corey Seager and Joc Pederson already in the lineup, so how many fresh-facers can they play? My guess is two and Peraza isn’t one of them. So, why on earth am I highlighting Peraza if this is meant for primarily redraft leagues? I’m glad you asked. Or rather, I asked: Anyway, what can we expect of Jose Peraza for 2016 fantasy baseball?
Please, blog, may I have some more?There are organizations flush with prospects that you’d like to have on your fantasy roster. Then there are organizations like the Tigers. Not to hate on the Motor City Kitties, but finding a spec I can get excited about on this farm is a little bit like this. Even with trades, the players they brought in are mostly in the pitching category, namely Michael Fulmer and recent grads Daniel Norris and Matt Boyd. Their first round pick in 2015 also went to an arm, and a prep arm to boot, meaning it will be a while before he’s making any kind of fantasy impact. That said, your dear friend Mike is still going to trot out fifteen names and plow forward. Let’s just rip this thing off like a Band-Aid and on Sunday we can chat White Sox specs over turkey sandwiches.
Please, blog, may I have some more?My predilection is to draft rookie hitters over rookie pitchers. Predilection is also one dirty sounding word. Slap an NC-17 stamp on the word predilection, Tipper Gore! Actually, I’m not sure I’ve ever drafted a rookie pitcher outside of an NL or AL-Only league and/or keeper. Further (Grey just won’t stop!), I’m not sure I’ve ever drafted a rookie in a standard redraft league who was slated to start the year in the minors. By standard redraft, I mean leagues with waivers. I don’t believe in sitting on lottery tickets on my bench. Obviously, there’s times when this should’ve been done. Trout’s rookie year comes to mind; Braun’s rookie year was a thing of beauty; even last year’s Bryant was someone that would’ve been nice to grab in drafts. The rookies that are worthwhile to sit on from March until they’re called up are few and far between, and aside from Trout and Braun’s rookie years, you can draft a guy who is slated to start the year in the majors around the same time as any rookie and get just as good of value. I.e., Bryant was solid last year, but you could’ve drafted a ton of guys that were solid when he was drafted. I bring all of this up now because today’s rookie, Julio Urias, won’t start the year in the majors. He’s young enough to be Jose Tabata’s wife’s grandchild, listed currently at 19 years old. But I think there’s something to super-young Latino players. As we have a Latin 30 in the Razzball glossary, which means a player says they’re one age but are really much older, I think there’s an opposite phenomenon with Latin players who are super young. They don’t want to do anything but play baseball, so when a major league team asks to sign them, they say they’re 16, as Urias did with the Dodgers, but he could be 12 years old and no one has any idea. Since he’s 19 going on 12, which was also a Jennifer Garner movie remake that Subway Jared tried to greenlight, Urias will start the year in the minors, and won’t be up until June at the earliest and may not be up at all this year. Anyway, what can we expect from Julio Urias for 2016 fantasy baseball?
Please, blog, may I have some more?There was an article at Fangraphs titled, “On Orlando Arcia‘s Lack of Power.” I didn’t read the article, because its SEO jackhammer title sorta gave me an idea as to what it was going to be about. Arcia is only 21 years old, so the title might’ve been better off being, “Orlando Arcia’s Lack of Power, But, I Mean, He is Super Young and It Could Develop.” If his power does develop, he will be a first round fantasy talent, because everything else is gorge. Like the Continental Army is going to set up at Valley Gorge and beat those Brits or at least not drink their tea. Arcia hits .300, he doesn’t strikeout much, he is capable of thirty steals and he’s a shortstop. Going back to the lack of power, I decided to watch about a month’s worth of Arcia’s at-bats condensed into a three-minute video. Thank you, iMovie. Know what I took away from that? The reason he hasn’t hit for power. I’m honestly not even sure why someone needed to write an article about his lack of power, because if you watch him it’s as obvious as the schnoz on Jon Niese’s face. He doesn’t hit for power because he looks like Edgar Renteria. I mean, he looks just like him. As if him and Renteria were attached at one point and Ben Carson separated them. Right now, people are likely barfing in their mouth, swishing it around and spitting it into their scrapbook labeled, “Renteria,” but Renteria wasn’t always terrible. He had a few 10+ homer, 30+ SB seasons when he was young. Renteria also had a .286 batting average over 2100 major league games, and suddenly this post became the Wikipedia page for Renteria. Anyway, what can we expect from Orlando Arcia for 2016 fantasy baseball?
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