Last year, I wrote a “If You Can Think It, I Could Test It” where I invited commenters to ask me draft questions that I can test against the Razzball Commenter League data. With Grey traveling back from his stealthily awesome Tout NL draft, I figured I’d use today for a sequel.

Here’s what I have at my disposal:

  • 101 12-team RCLs from 2015: Draft Results + Final Standings/Stats (Daily roster changes/pickups)
  • 17 12-team NFBC leagues from 2015: Draft Results + Final Standings/Stats (Weekly)
  • 2015 Steamer/Razzball Hitter and Pitcher Projections
  • 84 12-team RCLs from 2014: Draft Results + Final Standings/Stats (Daily)

Types of questions you can ask include:

  • How did teams that drafted a SAGNOF like Billy Hamilton or Dee Gordon do?
  • How did teams that invested a lot vs a little in starting pitching do?
  • What stat categories correlated best with final standings points?

The more specific the question, the better.

This is a special day. If you ask me an everyday question about your team, I’m going to reply with “Boo, wrong post. Ask Grey tomorrow.”

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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See all of today’s starting lineups

# MLB Starting Lineups For Tue 8/5
ARI | ATH | ATL | BAL | BOS | CHC | CHW | CIN | CLE | COL | DET | HOU | KC | LAA | LAD | MIL | MIN | NYM | NYY | PHI | PIT | SD | SEA | SF | STL | TB | TEX | TOR | WSH | MIA | OAK

When looking at 1st basemen based on 2015 statistics, it is easy to see this position is elite when it comes to Spread (again Spread= OBP minus AVG). In fact, the average Spread for all 1B who had over 400 ABs in 2015 was .081, which would be near elite at most other positions. Taking that figure into account, I will show you the risers, fallers, targets, and sleepers for this rather shallow position.

(Keep in mind, the format is 12-team 5×5 OBP)

Please, blog, may I have some more?

When it comes to rookies we all known the top 100 prospects, and the guys outside the rankings with all the helium, but more often than not it’s the unheralded prospects that can make all the difference in deeper leagues and dynasty’s. Ask the 2014 Charlie Blackmon owner, the 2015 Delino Deshields owner, or the guy that picked up Travis Shaw down the stretch. They’ll tell you that when everyone else was blinded by minor leagues stats, or top 100 hyperboles, they took a shot on a guy who had something more important than hype; playing time. When it comes down to it, no matter the format, or scoring system everything starts and ends with playing time opportunity. So, with that said, for the next two posts I’m going to take a look at players that have a chance of breaking camp with their clubs, and reaping the benefits of that most important thing. Today we focus on the hitters and Wednesday we’ll move onto the pitchers. These won’t be your heralded guys like A.J. Reed or Jose Peraza, but those less sexy “rooks” that toe the line of JAG, and sleeper. Behold, Dr. Lifshitz’s Sleeper Rookies for 2016 Fantasy Baseball!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Ladies and gentlemen, the moment you’ve all been waiting for is just a few sarcastic and synergistic sentences away. With draft season about to explode on us like animals in heat, I thought it was time for me to publish my position-adjusted overall rankings before some of you found out where I lived and started beating on my door. I actually got an email from someone asking me if my rankings would be ready in time for his draft and if I expected them to be good. I replied “unsubscribe”. Well without further ado allow me to reveal the name of the top ranked player. That player is Ryan Braun! Wait, what??!! Can’t be! Sorry about that I stepped away to grab a beer and Steve Harvey swooped in a typed that. That will teach me to leave my MacBook unlocked. The actual number one player, for two years in a row, is Clayton Kershaw.

Okay, so for those of you wondering how I came to such a conclusion I will explain my methods of madness.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

If you visit the comments section on a regular basis, you’re probably familiar with some of the most common questions that are posted there. “Who should I draft – player X or player Y?” “Why do you have player X ranked ahead of player Y?” “Why do you love/hate player X so much? He was great/awful last season!” The answers to these questions will vary depending on who you ask. Grey will tell you to avoid players in their 30s and draft Delino DeShields at all costs. “Take DeShields.” “But I need a pitcher…” “DeShields!” Rudy will direct you to his dollar values and remind you why positional scarcity is a myth. Sky would probably advise you to load up on power. Jay might extoll the virtues of Cory Spangenberg. While all of these opinions have merit, the question is: whose opinion should you value the most? The answer is… yours!

In this article, I’ll be sharing some of the basic, but important, things that I look for when evaluating hitters for fantasy baseball. I’ll provide brief explanations of the specific things that I focus on as well as why I believe these things are significant in the evaluation process. Hopefully, you’ll be able to use one or two of these tips to improve your own player evaluations.

Without further ado, here are some of the things that I look for when evaluating hitters for fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Why are we talking about the Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Keepers again? I know, right? I thought we were past this, but then I had a revelation… and an email from Jay. After reflecting on some of the comments, I felt that I owed you guys… and five girls a little more about my evaluations. Got it? Good! Let’s not beat around the bush (TWSS), and jump right into this. When I started the keeper list, I was looking at this through the lens of people already in existing keeper leagues. I think to rank out a first year draft would require 200-plus ranked players and a multi-format strategy guide to compliment it. Then we would need meditation sessions to help conquer the inner conflict of win now versus win later. Pulling off the now and later is a tall task that requires two elements: 1) A hefty haul of young talent that takes a step forward this year and 2) A league of morons that don’t know how to draft… kidding… sort of. My general assumption is that if you are reading this site, then you are already gaining an advantage over your league-mates. We do a damn good job between writers and active commenters to cover anything and everything fantasy related. Now go grow your in-season stache, sign up for an RCL commenter league or start your own, and buy a round of daquiris for your bartenders (that’s us). Hhhhhmmm, does that make Grey Sam Malone?

Take on your favorite writers in the 2016 Razzball Commenter Leagues! Join here

Please, blog, may I have some more?

No, you haven’t stumbled onto a WebMd bait page.  Well… this is an advisory blog, none the same, but we won’t scare you into believing that you have clinical depression with every symptom.  I mean, I’ve seen some other fantasy sites that attempt to advise on bullpen strategy.  It’s easy to throw stuff up about closers and bullpens and say this guy will fail because of this and that.  Heck, I like watching Jeopardy and guessing at the stuff I don’t know about either.  Add in the fact that I remember my first beer…  So this is one of the last pieces of the fantasy bullpen puzzle before we get down to brass tacks.  The NSVH question…  I always get it from the fantasy inspectors of the net of how and what to do about it.  Do I stick with what I know, or do I go complete rover and draft whatever, whenever?  That’s why I am here, hopefully to quell all ills in the race for bullpen dominance.  The NSVH leagues are tricky and can be described as: people don’t know until they have to know.  I know that really isn’t a draft strategy that I am going to “learn” you with this post, since I am better than that and take pride in leading my disciples into reliever bliss.  So go get a comfy seat upon the porcelain throne of fantasy knowledge and let me guide you, for I am the fantasy bullpen shepherd.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

This is a post for the fantasy baseball drafters who use Excel, Google Docs, or some other war room software that automatically totals a drafted team’s stats while in the middle of a draft. Or perhaps for those of you who do mock drafts or simulated drafts.

The below grid represents my projected 75% mark in each stat category across 10/12/14/15/16 team ESPN and Yahoo default roster format leagues.

These numbers should only be used directionally. Please note that each projection source projects to a different league average so your team may look great if using a ‘bullish’ source and look poor if using a ‘bearish’ source.

While I stand behind these numbers as they are part of the foundation behind my Player Rater $ estimates, I do not use these as part of my draft. I prefer to add up the dollar values per category. Same difference I suppose but it is easier to see counting totals for ratios and it lets me fixate less on the numbers (e.g., I see $7, I know they are good…I don’t fixate on 20 SBs vs 25 SBs).

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I don’t do 1st baseman sleepers because there are none.  Okay, I love A.J. Reed like he’s Neve Campbell and Denise Richards and I’m Matt Dillion, but Reed’s a flyer at this point.  If you’re drafting a 1st baseman sleeper, you’re losing your league.  Who are you putting at 1st?   Yonder Alonso?  That’s cool.  Don’t pay your league fees until the end of the year and then duck out of the country.  You feel me?  Okay, stop feeling me, that shizz wasn’t meant literally.  3rd basemen are more or less in the same boat, and that boat is the Titanic and if you draft a sleeper 3rd baseman that doesn’t pan out, you’re gonna sink while holding until to a lady named Rose who gets real old looking, but some of youse have corner men in your league, so we may as well look at a few 3rd basemen for s’s and g’s.  Good?  Good.  These are all 3rd basemen that being drafted after 200 overall.  Keep in mind, nephew (and five niece readers), your Uncle Grey likes to have a corner man drafted by the time these guys appear, so you’re looking at potential utility men more than anything.  Now, this is a (legal-in-all-countries-except-Indonesia) supplement to the top 20 3rd basemen for 2016 fantasy baseball.  Click on the player’s name where applicable to read more and see their 2016 projections.  Anyway, here’s some 3rd basemen to target for 2016 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

I was thinking about ideas for a draft strategy post to complement Grey’s recent draft strategy post when I concluded that the vast majority of my strategic thinking goes into my draft preparation. The draft itself is more just execution. So I figured it might help some of you if I laid out my draft preparation and then some notes on how my strategy might change based on league format.

My larger goal with any draft is to be in control. With the right preparation, I can take advantage of whatever advantages the draft room is giving me. I drafted the 2nd and 3rd pitchers off the board in this year’s Tout Wars and was the last player to take a pitcher in LABR.  Yet my hit/pitch split for the two teams was within one percentage point (63.7/36.3 vs 64.6/35.4).

I also strive for zero ‘instant regret’ picks. Those are the picks where you are ‘under the gun’ and pick someone that you regret while the draft is still going on. I think most drafters get ‘lost’ during snake drafts more than they’d care to admit. I can say with full honesty that I only made one of those picks combined between LABR and Tout (LABR – Yasmany Tomas in 16th when none of my planned bats were still on board and Storen went the pick before).

You do not need to follow each and every step (you could just from my $/projections and edit from there) but I do think all this research makes for a smarter, more efficient draft.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

REL baseball logo new

Mmmmmm, look at dem sexy graphics!

The inaugural draft of the Team-Based Razzball Elite League concluded this Sunday, full of mystery, intrigue and MURDER! As in, I’m gonna murder the Phillies for sniping Amir Garrett at the end there, stupid rebuilding NL teams!

REL teams in the initial season began with keeping 17 players on their active roster, leaving 8 remaining spots to be filled with a $100 auction budget. Scrubs going for mad cash! It was a draft we’re likely never going to see anything quite like again, as every following season is a 3-round supplemental snake… I’m going to always cherish the inaugural REL auction draft!

As with the REL Hoops League, yearly winners will get their pennant retired on the footer graphic and is my new primary goal every fantasy baseball season. Get that Brewers ink up on the rafters! Unfortunately it’s going to take a season or two of rebuilding to even be in the conversation, but I’ve never done a full rebuild in a dynasty before! Should be fun…

We’ll be posting updates once a week during the regular season, giving the other 29 REL GMs and myself a chance to recap their past week and explain their decisions. We’ve already gotten some big trades in the NL! Here’s how the draft went down and what the REL owners think about their year one teams:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Last week, we covered why you should join a RCL, so this week, let’s start covering what to do once you’re in there.  To be honest, most all of this has been covered somewhere on the site over the years, most often by Rudy.  If you haven’t been playing in RCLs though, I could see how some of this has been glossed over, so I’ll try to consolidate some info for the newbies.

I’d like to preface that I’m no expert in the matter.  I loved Ralph’s line from a couple weeks back when talking about dynasty leagues and I think the same applies to me here.  “See, here’s the thing, I’m not so much an expert as I am avid player.” Bingo.  I’ve finished in the top 20 of the master standings a couple times and won the ECFBL in a year when it had the highest league competitive index.  It’s not nothing, but far from expert.  With that out of the way, let’s jump right into the nitty gritty.

The first and most important item in competing for a top spot in these leagues is TIME.

Please, blog, may I have some more?