Bear or Bull: Mad Max

March 24, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Bear or Bull | 21 Comments

In these dystopian times, my mind can only wonder if Mad Max could ambush and/or eradicate COVID-19. Probably not since the Rona is invisible, but Max Rockatansky could do unimaginable things when mad, so I’m not completely dismissing the possibility. There is another Max, though, who may ease the pain that COVID-19 has brought into our fantasy baseball universe, and that’s Max Kepler of the Minnesota Twins (Max Scherzer is too old and happy from winning the World Series). And this Max is mad as well because he’s being drafted as the 136th overall player in NFBC drafts from 2/1 – 3/23. Is it warranted for this Max to be mad, and can he bring a ray of sunshine into these gloomy days?

Kepler was signed at the age of 16 back in 2009 for the largest signing bonus ($800k) ever given to a European-born player. He then spent three years in rookie ball, where he hit for a high average, showed good plate discipline, had a high BABIP, and produced 10 home runs and 7 stolen bases in 269 plate appearances during the 2012 season. As he moved up the ranks, the walk rate continued to improve (from 10% to 13%), while the strikeout rate remained very low (13% to 15% range). The BABIP also remained above .300 while Kepler continued to hit for a good average. When he finally received consistent playing time with the big club in 2016, the batting average and BABIP both plummeted, while the walk rate went down to 9% and strikeout rate went to 20%. Not uncommon when making the leap to the majors. He was a 18 home run and 6 stolen base player the first two seasons in the majors. Then in 2018, things started to improve. The walk rate went back to above 11% while the strikeout rate cratered to 15.7%. The batting average and BABIP continued to trend lower, though. He ended the season with 20 home runs and 4 stolen bases. Last season, Kepler broke out with 36 home runs but only stole 1 base. The walk and strikeout rates were similar to 2018, but the ISO spiked while the batting average increased to .252 with a BABIP of .244.

Kepler ended last season as the 107th offensive player for fantasy, so the NFBC ADP seems fair. Is there room for improvement?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Rolling In The Deep: Looking Outside The RCL Top 250

March 24, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Rolling In The Deep | 8 Comments

by: Laura Holt

So, I’ve agreed to draft another fantasy baseball team this weekend. I honestly can’t tell you how many that makes for me in 2020, and I don’t really care at this point. At first I was worried about how I could possibly manage juggling so many rosters should baseball ever return (PLEASE, PLEASE return sometime this summer, baseball!) Now, though, I’ve decided that I’m just going to carry on, figuring that having a “problem” like having 20 or 30 lineups to set come July would be the greatest problem I can possibly imagine right now.

Since I’m still drafting and I know many of you are too — either joining public online leagues as a therapeutic way to pass the time, or participating in drafts for leagues you’ve been in for years and have had planned all off-season — I thought I’d look at the current state of players outside the top 250, and which names I have my eye on as being a potential value that late. I’m basing these ADP numbers on MattTruss’s Monday post in which he included a beautiful spreadsheet unveiling weeks worth of RCL ADP, so theoretically this is data that many of you have actually contributed to. Some of these players’ values got a slight VHB* bump, others I’m valuing exactly the way I would during a normal season. This is an extra tough week for me, as I try to keep what would normally be the sunshine-y giddiness of Opening Day from being permanently replaced by an ugly cloud of darkness… but to that end, let’s try to be safe, stay positive, and think about how insanely exciting it will be to finally have baseball to watch, whenever that may be.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Fantasy Baseball Podcast: Tout Wars Recap 2020 And Other Quarantine Thoughts

March 24, 2020 | All Podcasts, Razzball Podcast | 8 Comments

by: Geoff

As quickly as the baseball season was approaching it came to a screeching halt even faster. With no baseball on the docket for seemingly a few months at minimum, Grey and myself dug into our Tout Wars auction results. We talk high level strategy in each format and how we executed our pre-draft game plans. It’s not the show you deserve but it’s the show you need! Join us for the latest episode of the Razzball podcast. Oh BTW, wash your hands!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

15 Team, NFBC Draft Champions Recap: I Don’t Like This Team

March 24, 2020 | Our Leagues | 149 Comments

by: Grey

You ever draft, like, twelve teams and have eleven teams that are all very similar and one team that is nothing like the other teams? This, here, is that other team. In theory, this team could be my one good team and the other eleven could be garbage, but I sure hope that’s not the case. I started this draft like every other league this offseason — by taking Pete Alonso in the 2nd round. At that point, this team veered into a different direction to never return. For those not in the know, it’s a weekly, 15-team, 5×5, two-catcher league that lasts for 50 rounds and there’s no waivers. NFBC has decided to cut off new slow draft leagues like this one, so I don’t think we’re doing another one this year. Sorry, I wanted to do one more league too. I will now put on The Knack and change the words in my head to My Corona. Anyway, here’s my NFBC draft recap:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

2020 Pitcher Profile: Luke Weaver

March 23, 2020 | Top 100 Starting Pitchers | 5 Comments

by: Pat

Luke Weaver was the perceived center piece in a trade for an MVP candidate, Paul Goldschmidt, only 15 months ago. It feels much longer than that as these days we are stuck inside roll by without baseball, but it’s true. You can look it up! Weaver went on to have a brief, but dynamic 2019 season with a 9.65 K/9 and 1.96 BB/9. There were only 5 qualifying pitchers in baseball from a season ago with a higher K/9 and lower BB/9! Why then am I here to write about my disinterest in Luke Weaver for the 2020 season? Is it the inability to grow luscious facial hair like our illustrious Razzball leader? No. I wish it were that simple. I could save myself 1000 words. Instead sit up and enjoy a few paragraphs on why you shouldn’t waste a top 200 pick on Luke Weaver.

The first strike against Weaver is that he hasn’t shown the ability to break the ceiling on 140 innings pitched in a professional season. This downfall can be alleviated by a condensed season and we have all come to the realization that pitchers with less total innings can have fantasy baseball value if they are dynamic enough. This is where the fork in the road comes in for me and Weaver. For him to be a roster worthy fantasy player you must believe in one of two things. He has the capacity to be an accumulator, or he is so dynamic that a lower innings pitched total can be offset by the per innings numbers he provides. The former, even in a condensed season, seems unlikely based on history. We cannot forget that Weaver is coming off a season in which he missed 4 months with a sprained UCL. The Diamondbacks had already made public that they will be monitoring his innings. That may change, but I ask to you the reader, have we learned nothing from Chris Sale? I know I have. There are only so many Masahiro Tanaka’s in the world who can go multiple seasons with a UCL hanging on by a thread. Since this is the case Weaver must be elite in his per inning numbers in order to be fantasy relevant. There will be owners who believe he can do it, as he did it in 2019. I will not be one of those owners.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

RCL Update – Delayed ADPs

March 23, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Our Leagues, Razzball Commenter Leagues | 10 Comments

by: MattTruss

How is everyone hanging in there? Hopefully you are doing well, maintaining proper social distancing, washing well and catching up on all those shows you’ve been meaning to binge. I’ll admit, I’m at a bit of a loss without baseball on the horizon, but what else is a fantasy baseballer to do but draft? You know, we prepare for weeks leading up to draft day and I’ve found drafting to be a bit therapeutic in this time of turmoil. Many of my bigger money leagues have moved their drafts to a later date to be determined, but I’ve been enjoying drafting RCLs aplenty. We went ahead and moved a couple handfuls of RCLs all through the month of April. Now, you all will be able to draft to your heart’s content while under quarantine. Go ahead and pop down below and take a gander at the spreadsheet to pick a league to join. We’ll also be looking at how this delay in the start of the season has affected some player’s ADPs.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

The BBC (Baltimore Baseball Club) Delays Release Of Hit Show, Mountcastle

March 23, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Daily Notes | 120 Comments

by: Grey

The BBC announced during the shutdown that when the season returns they will keep airing reruns of Fawlty Davis, delaying Mountcastle for the foreseeable future. The BBC’s head of programming Peter Angelos, noted spendthrift and lover of reality shows, said, “We should air a full season of I’m A Celebrity Get Me Out Of Here starring Richie Martin trying to unsuccessfully cross the River Ruiz.” Filling their lineup: Hanser & Renato, a BBC surprise hit, will be returning, and generating some underground enthusiasm is Austin “Martin” Hays, a David Tennant-led vehicle, where he’s a mechanic by day and detective by night, and Dwight Smith Jr. & Jose Iglesias starring in AB Unfab, where they just get gross at-bats. Okay, seriously, what on the earth that is in total lockdown is going on with the Orioles? They announced Ryan Mountcastle was optioned to the minors. THERE’S NOT EVEN ANY MINORS?! There’s no freakin’ baseball, Orioles, you giant nimrods! How can they be so dense? Trey Mancini, which I still pronounce like fettuccini, but hoping he gets healthy, needs some time, I’d imagine. Doesn’t cancer lead to chemo which leads to a lower immune system? That makes me think Mancini won’t be back this year, and I removed him from my top 20 1st basemen for 2020 fantasy baseball, while also moving down Mountcastle. Now all we have to look forward to is the new season of Luther starting Idris Alberto. Anyway, here’s what else I saw this week for 2020 fantasy baseball:

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Points Leagues, Dude, Where’s My Spreadsheet?

March 22, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Points Leagues | 24 Comments

by: malamoney

Dude, what does mine say? Sweet. What about mine? Dude. What does mine say. It says “hey malamoney dude, where is that spreadsheet you’ve promised us”? It’s tattooed right here on my upper back. Unfortunately today is not the day. This whole virus thing we’ve got going on has really put a monkey wrench in my plans. The problem is that my spreadsheet is driven by projections. The problem with my projections is that with the length of the season up in limbo, my projections are kinda in a holding pattern. I highly doubt we are going to see a full season, and am expecting a shortened season. But how short. No clue. There’s even a chance of no season. Say it ain’t so.

So why can’t I just share the spreadsheet with whatever projections I currently have and then adjust once the season is better understood. The short answer is that it would be a boat load of work. Unfortunately the way I created that thing it’s not so simple to just replace the projections, at least not for more than a few players. I have no desire to go through the motions twice once they announce the official plans for the season. A lot of the work I have been doing to the spreadsheet these past few weeks has been to remedy this problem for the future.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

2021 Top 100 Prospects: Behind the Scenes

March 22, 2020 | Fantasy Baseball Prospects | 26 Comments

by: The Itch

A few weeks ago, I ran into a white-haired “scientist” trying to sell me a souped-up DeLorean. He was on the run from some Libyans, he said, and figured his best move was to cover his tracks. Said the car could travel through time–that it had just enough gigawatt juice left for one round trip.

I didn’t have much scratch on hand so had to trade my own car in the exchange but figured, hey, let’s go back and fix this Corona thing.

Then I remembered the butterflies. What if I made it worse? Who would I even visit? So many Ashton Kutcher-esque variables.

If you’re reading this in quarantine, you know I chickened out. Flashed forward to next March and watched baseball instead. In this article, I’ll discuss what I saw and how I built the 2021 top 100.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Marcus Stroman’s Improved Strikeout Rate

March 21, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 14 Comments

by: Jay

Straight from my basement bunker to yours, our first “Corona” post (as a philosopher once said:”You can have any virus you want… as long as it’s a Corona.” is here! And we’re talking about… Marcus Stroman‘s strikeout rate? Well, yeah. As we enter this elongated (heh) period of nothing going on, what better way to proceed than focusing even more on information we already have. And what does that exactly mean in this context? Well, in terms of Marcus Stroman, there seems to be consensus that he might be alright this upcoming season (currently Razzball ranks him just above Julio Urias as the 43rd overall pitcher as of this writing, and is generally in the top-100 no matter which platform you choose). Whether you consider him a sleeper, a buy-low, or a player with expanded potential (why not all three!), this post will act as confirmation bias. Yes, I only offer the best bias. For those who are a bit more bullish (as the stock market shows, you should never go bear), this post is made for you. Think of it this way: Everyone knows Stroman did better the second-half. What this post presupposes is… maybe it can continue?

“Stroman’s K/9 went from 7.0 to 8.8 from the 1st half to the 2nd half and had a 3.28 ERA with a miserable BABIP (.332). Of course, he’s prone to some BABIP bad luck and iffy defense because he has a top five ground ball rate in the majors. His Ks only on the Mets were 9, recording 60 Ks in 59 2/3 IP. If Stroman holds these improvements to his K rates, and he’s gonna go from a ‘just okay’ fantasy number four to a number two, bordering on an ace. Dare I call him, Black Greinke.” – Grey.

I don’t quote Grey just to read what’s right, I also quote Grey so I can read his sweet nothings in my own voice. Look, it’s not sexual if you do it in your own voice! But why is Grey right? Because he always is? That’s it folks, we’re done here, let’s wrap it up.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

Deep Thoughts: Ain’t That A Mitch?

March 20, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball | 7 Comments

by: Coolwhip

Something, something, COVID-19, something. I feel bad for the Wuhan Clan, the tribute rap group, they are going viral for all the wrong reasons right now; and sadly, their music is being grossly underappreciated. Channeling my inner Rodney Dangerfield, some people get no respect. Which is a back-alley, clunky, comedy club way to introduce you to my Deep Thoughts column. Much like last season, this is where we will plunge into the dark recesses of my mind (fun huh?) and dive deeply into deepest depths that is the mouth of madness we call player analysis.

This first episode features the statcast wonderboy, Mitch Garver (a catcher? GASP!), who has also been underappreciated. Did he benefit from Tropicana-infused balls (not the Rays’ park, the juice cocktail… hmm now that I think about it, did anyone else notice that 2 ballparks are sponsored by juice companies? Manfred!) or did he just flex on the league hidden within a stacked Twins lineup? These questions and more I hope to answer.

Please, blog, may I have some more?

2020 Fantasy Baseball Team Preview: Seattle Mariners

March 20, 2020 | 2020 Fantasy Baseball, Fantasy Baseball Team Previews | 5 Comments

by: Kerry Klug

I consider myself a fairly optimistic person. Take this whole coronavirus thing. I don’t have it (or maybe I do — or maybe I do and don’t know it — or maybe I don’t and do know it and now you have it just from reading this article.) It’s a scary time, but I’ve tried to remain looking on the bright side that we’re all washing our hands, self-isolating, and wiping our butts so well that this thing will pass quickly. Then I started looking at the Mariners projected lineup, rotation and bullpen for 2020. Now I’ve covered the Tigers, the White Sox and the Royals to prove you can mine for fantasy gold in the darkest of baseball caves. But the Mariners might be my hardest task yet. It’s hard to be optimistic about this team.

Please, blog, may I have some more?