Finding draft day bargains is the best way to break out of the starting gates. Well, I guess the best way is to have a solid core of keepers, but in a redraft league, everything starts with the draft. Or does it start with the draft prep? So like Jesus Jones sang, does it start right here, right now? I think it might. Maybe not with this exact post, but somewhere here on Razzball. With every draft day bargain, you gain on your league mates. If you need a refresher on what a draft day bargain is, I will tell you. A draft day bargain is when you draft a player later than his actual value. For simplicity’s sake, drafting Juan Soto in the second round would be a prime example. Soto is an easy top five pick, so drafting him with the 12th pick means you’ve gotten Soto with a draft pick in which he shouldn’t have been available.
Determining a player’s actual value in points league can be tricky as player rankings will vary based on the league’s scoring system. You all know how much I’ve stressed the importance of knowing a league’s scoring system when trying to compare players. The other confusing data point is average draft position (ADP). ADP can be misleading because it most certainly does not represent a player’s true value, just his current market value as it represents where a player is being drafted by the masses. The problem is that ADP is contagious. What this means is that when someone is trying to determine who to draft with their next pick, they often refer to the remaining players’ ADP to see who they should be picking before someone else selects the player. So if Aaron Judge has an ADP of 23, he’s not going to be available when you pick at 40. This is true even if Judge’s actual value is the 45th best player in your league. Unfortunately, there is always going to be at least one person in your league that will draft based on ADP.
Let’s look at some players that have an ADP greater than their actual value.
Please, blog, may I have some more?